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[Aquamarine]

"Second consoles" are a niche thing. They'll not meaningfully change sales trajectories.



You're citing big percentage increases over pathetic numbers that still leave sales in pathetic territories. And those percentages are falling, as they should. A known commodity such as Mario Kart or Smash Brothers cannot be reasonably expected to impact sales significantly upon release. (A 300% increase in a single week is not significant, mind you. Over the course of a year and certainly a generation, it is entirely immaterial.)

It's really only useful for PR so uninformed people can look at those "extravagant" percentage increases and think "Wow! 310% increase? That's so massive! Wii U is saved! I should buy one!"

 

[Dragonborn]

You are right. My point was just that there is a huge piece of the pie for the type of gamers ms and Sony target. Even if you flip the roles this gen and Sony eats up a greater bulk of them, I think a regression would still leave MS with a lot of consoles to sell, enough to outsell the Wii U worldwide, which might end up at less than 20 million total.

in NA, between the PS3 and 360, something like 70 million consoles were sold. This gen there will be a gap, but it won't be as large as last gen (so maybe, PS4 = 40 million, Xbox 360 = 30 million). If Sony is able to lead by that much in NA, WW they'll be tens of millions ahead. Still, I don't think they'll sell as much as last gen, especially since this gen will probably be shorter.

 

[Jock_Nerd]

You've been spun.

 

[mario_O]

Reggie's still high from that Treehouse energy. Mario kart momentum won't last forever and they don't have anything for the wiiu till december. The rest is all 2015.

 

[prag16]

SSB isn't nearly as big as MK, MK Wii sold 3x as much as Brawl. The people who'll be getting SSB will be mostly people who already have the console. Actually I've fears MK might not give that big of a boost either. In Japan, MK8 sold +300k and WiiU only got bumped to 20k. Amazon has the game charting but not the console.

Can't use Amazon as evidence of poor console sales in the U.S. The MK8 bundle is $380 from 3rd party sellers, and the NSMBU bundle is $320 also from 3rd party sellers (#62 in video games).

 

[Randolph Freelander]

first, the pathetic sales as you put it are immaterial. Something that sold 300% above generated (roughly) 300% more interest than before. I am not comparing that to PS4 r XBONE, just inside of interest in Wii U. So not sure where you are trying to go with that point. my point was that you citing your own expectations going forward on just one week of sales is tenuous at best, AND being entirely dismissive of what I just stated. That despite "pathetic numbers" and "usual drop off" that increased interest is there and apparent. without comparison (or need for comparison) beyond that as we aren't talking about any other systems in this context.

Well, in real terms, Wii U was selling 12K per week in the US in April. Give them a week at 400% of that, it's still just 48K. That sales level (a) is not high and (b) is not sustainable for the platform. Let's say just for argument that it recedes to 24000 in week 2. 18000 week 3. Would you argue that this is an unreasonable regression? Even if it settles in and remains at such an "elevated" level, it does not change the fact (and this ties back to the post originally replied to) that the Wii U would not be competitive or even particularly relevant.

Now, to go one step further, it is of course my expectation that sales will ultimately settle back in at the previous levels, as I believe firmly that a known single game does not matter. If a platform sold poorly before, it will continue to sell poorly (not long) after. But take my expectation out of it, reality is already portraying that whatever Wii U's boost is, it's not meaningful, even if we generously grant that they could sustain a portion of it going forward.

 

[RobFox64tm]

At this point it shouldn't matter to Wii U owners. It's clear from the showing at E3 that Nintendo isn't abandoning the system, which was the only reasonable fear one could have about slow hardware sales. As a Wii U owner myself, I'm relieved just to know Nintendo won't be throwing in the towel any earlier than normal, so what it ends up selling in the end is irrelevant. It probably won't be a mainstream success without meaningful 3rd party support, but it'll still be a solid system defined by it's exclusive software and will be remembered as such.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

People still have not come to face the truth on truly how bad the WiiU is doing. We are talking a projected figure of 3.6 million for one year WW in the year it will get two of its biggest exclusives.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

in NA, between the PS3 and 360, something like 70 million consoles were sold. This gen there will be a gap, but it won't be as large as last gen (so maybe, PS4 = 40 million, Xbox 360 = 30 million). If Sony is able to lead by that much in NA, WW they'll be tens of millions ahead. Still, I don't think they'll sell as much as last gen, especially since this gen will probably be shorter.

I agree, but I still think that if you take into account some retraction and regression for MS there is still enough of a market there for them to push 15-20 million units in North America, and that's on the low end, which in itself is more than the Wii U will likely move around the world. Thinking that they will be neck and neck is just absurd.

 

[Daschysta]

This.

People who want to play MK8 and smash already bought WiiU expecting those games.

13 million smash sold and 30 milliom mk sold disagree.

 

[AniHawk]

it's going to be a real close race in japan, at least.

 

[Dragonborn]

I agree, but I still think that if you take into account some retraction and regression for MS there is still enough of a market there for them to push 15-20 million units in North America, and that's on the low end, which in itself is more than the Wii U will likely move around the world. Thinking that they will be neck and neck is just absurd.

No, I agree the X1 will eventually take second place, but it's going to take a while. A year, maybe 2.

 

[Aquamarine]

People still have not come to face the truth on truly how bad the WiiU is doing. We are talking a projected figure of 3.6 million for one year WW in the year it will get two of its biggest exclusives.

Iwata seems to have sobered up with his relatively pessimistic, practical FY consolidated unit sales forecast of 9.77 million LTD shipped consoles by the end of March 2014.

I just wish Reggie would get with the program as well.

 

[Spinluck]

It has no third party games.

I don't see how that changes anything. I have a PS4 and still think the Wii U has a better line up. All those these 3rd party games are interchangeable.

Unfortunately, this doesn't always dictate better sales. However, MK8 and Smash are pretty big.

 

[Qurupeke]

Well, Mother 3 for Wii U is more possible than that, sorry Reggie. >_>

 

[InFamousRaiden]

ouch!

 

[Chindogg]

Destiny, Witcher 3, Batman, MKX and Rainbow Six Siege are the big names and they disagree with you.

How many of those are out this holiday?

Serious question because I honestly don't know.

 

[Zornack]

How many of those are out this holiday?

Serious question because I honestly don't know.

Only Destiny.

This year the big, unique third party games that the Wii U is missing out on are Destiny, Alien: Isolation, Dragon Age: Inquisition, Far Cry 4, The Crew, The Evil WIthin, Evolve, Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor, Lords of the Fallen and Diablo 3, then there's the usual Sports/AC/CoD.

 

[Nintentoast]

I don't understand why people are making Reggie out to look foolish.

He never said Wii U was going to outsell PS4 or Xbox One. He just basically said Nintendo intends to remain competitive throughout the generation. What should he have said? "Nope, we are going to come in third by a wide margin?"

 

[Daschysta]

Smash will move more consoles than people think, the hype is real. Even here in Indianapolis there were damn near 200 people in line to play it for 2 minutes, and I showed up RIGHT at four.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

13 million smash sold and 30 milliom mk sold disagree.

That audience is gone. Not sure how much more clear that can get. Those sales numbers were anamolies.

 

[vinnygambini]

Iwata seems to have sobered up with his relatively pessimistic, practical FY consolidated earnings forecast of 9.77 million LTD shipped consoles by the end of March 2014.

I just wish Reggie would get with the program as well.

The bulk of Nintendo's overall profitability will be earned through Amiibo and their IP licensing agreements though.

In Q3, estimates for Amiibo figurines should be between 10-12 million, and with high-profitability margins, Nintendo is about to make a killing.

Smash Bros might be their next 1 Billion franchise with Amiibo.

 

[borghe]

Well, in real terms, Wii U was selling 12K per week in the US in April. Give them a week at 400% of that, it's still just 48K. That sales level (a) is not high and (b) is not sustainable for the platform. Let's say just for argument that it recedes to 24000 in week 2. 18000 week 3. Would you argue that this is an unreasonable regression? Even if it settles in and remains at such an "elevated" level, it does not change the fact (and this is particularly relevant to the post originally replied to) that the Wii U would not be competitive or even particularly relevant.

Now, to go one step further, it is of course my expectation that sales will ultimately settle back in at the previous levels, as I believe firmly that a known single game does not matter. If a platform sold poorly before, it will continue to sell poorly (not long) after. But take my expectation out of it, reality is already portraying that whatever Wii U's boost is, it's not meaningful.

While I don't see the value in playing fortune teller and predicting the future, I will debate the relevance of a boost (or even no boost).

Wii U selling at ~100K worldwide per month, while anemic, has still put Nintendo in a position where they have developed and continue to develop quality titles for it. Obviously games like Mario 3D World, Pikmin 3, and even like Smash Bros and Mario Kart 8, were in development long before the horrible sales of the console would be solidified as fact. However as we just saw from E3, there are games, quality games, that likely started actual coding development after Nintendo saw the cards they had dealt themselves. Splatoon, Kirby Canvas Curse sequel, Mario Maker, Wooly Yoshi, (to a lesser extent zelda, but obviously there isn't much need to go into that). And others coming out soon that were likely started after the same fact (Pushmo World comes to mind).

I guess the point is.. what is the real goal of your sales goals (or their inability to hit them)? Is it just a number that you will condone the console being a success or not? Or a number that you believe others agree with as to if it's a success or not?

Because none of what I'm talking about relates to any of that. Under "sales of ~100K per month" or so, Nintendo still managed to put out an E3 that was unexpected and easy to get excited for. So my only expectation with sales... is that with "sales of ~100K or more" they will continue to do the same.

Likewise at minimum, all the installed base really means is the potential for software units to hit. Now one could try to extrapolate what the Wii U's current install base might mean for some of those franchises.. but as Polygon found out, that's a pretty dangerous game to play.

So anyway.. we can go back and forth on where we think sales will land and how poorly we think the system will do against the other two all day.. in the end it's two guys on a forum talking through their ass hoping that their selective demonstration of past performance holds up to put sales where they say. Or we can just go "whatever happens hopefully it's good enough to Nintendo to put out more E3 events like they did this year, and give us game lineups like they have planned for fall 2014 and into 2015".

I choose the latter and seriously, that's my only hope in sales.. that they're enough to allow them to do that. Beyond that, I really don't give a shit how a system performs in sales.

That audience is gone. Not sure how much more clear that can get. Those sales numbers were anamolies.

while I agree (the wii audience being gone) sales of those titles were still VERY successful on the GCN.. an audience which assuredly is not necessarily "gone" like the flash in the pan casual audience of the Wii.

 

[Michael Armbrust]

Huh are the Wii U and PS4 really close? I thought PS4 is pretty comfortably ahead now?

Rounding to the nearest million, it's going to be 8 million for PS4 and 6 or 7 million for Wii U.

I'd say that's close in the grand scheme of things.



The year head start does make it a pretty pointless comparison though.

 

[Chaos17]

I just understood that he said the Wii u : is/will be still in the competition.
He never said the Wii U will beat the PS4 and the Xbox 1.

 

[Aquamarine]

I don't understand why people are making Reggie out to look foolish.

He never said Wii U was going to outsell PS4 or Xbox One. He just basically said Nintendo intends to remain competitive throughout the generation. What should he have said? "Nope, we are going to come in third by a wide margin?"

If he wanted to avoid looking foolish, he should have stayed silent with a "We have no comment at this time" deflection, or he should have made a non-statement like "We at Nintendo are committed to providing the best experiences for our customers. We welcome our competition and strive to demonstrate the unique value that only the Wii U can provide."

 

[Coolwhip]

Dear Reggie, Miyamoto is watching you.

Miyamoto the puppet master.

 

[Spinluck]

I don't understand why people are making Reggie out to look foolish.

He never said Wii U was going to outsell PS4 or Xbox One. He just basically said Nintendo intends to remain competitive throughout the generation. What should he have said? "Nope, we are going to come in third by a wide margin?"

GAF sale threads need their histrionics.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

 

[tengiants]

Miyamoto the puppet master.

Not sure why this gif is being thrown like miyamoto is some bossy asshole. If you watched the actual video, Dude was nervous as hell when he came out and Miyamoto might have just been giving a friendly reminder to bow.

 

[On Demand]

Ummm what's so funny about what he said? With the software line up they having coming the WiiU will remain selling comfortably.

 

[Pathos]

What's he supposed to say?

 

[Zornack]

I don't understand why people are making Reggie out to look foolish.

He never said Wii U was going to outsell PS4 or Xbox One. He just basically said Nintendo intends to remain competitive throughout the generation. What should he have said? "Nope, we are going to come in third by a wide margin?"

Because he disingenuously compared the WIi U and PS4 sales numbers and acted as though they were close, which they only are if you disregard the Wii U's year head start and fail to notice the WIi U's numbers are sold in while the PS4's are sold through.

 

[Baron von Loathsome]

Goddamn it, Reggie.

 

[Daschysta]

That audience is gone. Not sure how much more clear that can get. Those sales numbers were anamolies.

Smash on Gamecube is over 7 million. The assertion that everyone that wants mk8 and smash already have a wii u is wrong. That's tge point. Hard and anecdotal evidence point to a s ignificant push for wiiu numbers by mk8 and smash should be the same.

 

[mario_O]

What's he supposed to say?

Nothing.

 

[Neff]

Spin or not, blind optimism or not, he is actually correct, for now. It's startling how fucking shit scared of Nintendo success people are.

Holy shit this is amazing.

 

[borghe]

Smash on Gamecube is over 7 million. The assertion that everyone that wants mk8 and smash already have a wii u is wrong. That's tge point. Hard and anecdotal evidence point to a s ignificant push for wiiu numbers by mk8 and smash should be the same.

yeah, see now this I agree with. Yes the Wii audience is gone, and the Wii sales of those games were anomalies, but those games are still tier 1 sellers to the tune of millions. And MK8 launching to 1.2M units makes it very easy for one to believe SSB will launch to similar numbers this fall.

Nothing.

wut?

Reporter: "So how do you think your system will do in sales compared to the other two?"
Reggie: *silence*

heh, guessing you aren't applying for a job in public relations any time soon.

 

[Cuburt]

It may be spin but only Nintendo can be second place in LTD WW and everyone acts like they are so far behind they can never catch up. That's like last generation when the 360 was "winning" in only North America, yet still far behind the Wii worldwide, and everyone wanted to act like it's the king of the consoles. The 360 still hasn't beat LTD of the Wii iirc, with Wii selling over 100 million consoles and the 360 selling 83.7 million.

Granted, the Wii U is tracking lower than even the Gamecube but with Mario Kart 8 getting a good reception, a strong E3 showing with strong social media buzz throughout the week (which would have been the story of E3 in the media if it were anyone besides Nintendo), and the Wii U looking to close out the year strong with their exclusives, I think they will at least hold their own with the other 2. Then when 2015 hits, Nintendo looks to have plenty of big guns to keep their momentum going. They may not have the 3rd party support, but at the moment, neither do the PS4 and Xbox One compared to last gen. In the interim of 3rd parties being able to learn and develop for the current gen consoles, Nintendo has time to build momentum and stay in the game, especially if they can prove to stay ahead of the Xbox One's sales. If the Wii U is able to maintain sales in Japan while the PS4 struggles, it can gain a foothold that it can use to it's advantage, especially if it leads to more Japanese developer support.

That's not even taking into account that indie support is ramping up and is at least just as strong as any other console.

They have an uphill climb but it's more in changing perception of the console in the minds of gamers and publishers than turning the tides with sales which they certainly are capable of.

 

[Head.spawn]

If Reggie and Nelson get close to each other it's going to end up looking like that Twister movie when the dust settles.

 

[Deku Tree]

Seriously, he is a PR head for Nintendo. What do people expect him to say?

 

[Vlade]

title seems inflamatory, his answer is that they will stay competetive. Seems way more innocuous than the reactions it's getting.

 

[marc^o^]

Rounding to the nearest million, it's going to be 8 million for PS4 and 6 or 7 million for Wii U.

I'd say that's close in the grand scheme of things.



The year head start does make it a pretty pointless comparison though.

x360 also had a year head start, which we don't talk much about after some years.

I wonder how many millions the userbase will need to be for Ubi and EA to find the platform worth their investment.

 

[Wynnebeck]

Rounding to the nearest million, it's going to be 8 million for PS4 and 6 or 7 million for Wii U.

I'd say that's close in the grand scheme of things.



The year head start does make it a pretty pointless comparison though.

Whoa where did that Wii U extrapolation come from lol? No way Wii U has sold that many. Maybe close to 6 million if we're being generous.

 

[OG_Original Gamer]

Why do people get so salty when a suit doesn't give a negative response to a question about a company where he sits pretty high up on the totem pole. Your feelings are hurt?

 

[Rollo Tomasi]

michaeljordanlaughing.gif

 

[Pancakes R Us]

Good luck with that, Reggie.

 

[Seik]

Guys, even if it won't happen, you won't see a PR saying: ''Yeah, we're gonna lose that race.''

You gotta believe in your product, even if it means pure delusion.

 

[Ironjam]

Smash will move more consoles than people think, the hype is real. Even here in Indianapolis there were damn near 200 people in line to play it for 2 minutes, and I showed up RIGHT at four.

It wont move significant amount of consoles, its on the 3ds as well which is a platform with 6-7 times the userbase.

 

[Nintentoast]

Because he disingenuously compared the WIi U and PS4 sales numbers and acted as though they were close, which they only are if you disregard the Wii U's year head start and fail to notice the WIi U's numbers are sold in while the PS4's are sold through.

Okay but he's a President of a company and talking to the press...