Chobel
Member
So According to this video from Playstation Japan, PS4 + PS3 + Vita = 100 Million Sold. (Via IGN)
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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Gbpackers31
Member
Here we go.
[360] 60k
[3DS] 115k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 220k
[WIU] 90k
[XB1] 160k
[360] 60k
[3DS] 115k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 220k
[WIU] 90k
[XB1] 160k
SwiftDeath
Member
As of November 2nd, 2013, PS3 hit 80M WW
Maybe another 2M more sold WW since then?
Say 18M between Vita and PS4 then. I would hazard a guess that PS4 is around 8.5M or so currently, maybe maybe 9M. That would place Vita at around 9M - 10M WW
theprodigy
Member
why are you guys undershooting PS3 so much, it's probably at ~84 million, just like the 360 (although I could see 83m PS3, 9m PS4, 8m Vita I guess)
ethomaz
Banned
More reasonable... I can see even PS3 at 84.5m + 8.5m PS4 + 7m Vita.
Aquamarine
Member
I'd say 84-84.5 million for PS3 is perfectly reasonable.
See my justification here:
PS3 - 80.0 million shipments to consumers as of November 2nd, 2013.
And another 0.6 million from April - June 2014 is a reasonable extrapolation.
Prototype Viktor
Member
I can't really see myself going close to 200k with Tue xbone because of the promotion. Or under 200 for ps4 because the extra weel
Target selling Kinectless Xbox One for $399 with $50 gift card starting July 20
I know It's only retailer, but maybe Xbox One didn't do that good in June?
That was quick. Seems like Janurary and February all over again.
[360] 62k
[3DS] 105k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 230k
[WIU] 76k
[XB1] 155k
Aquamarine
Member
Target selling Kinectless Xbox One for $399 with $50 gift card starting July 20
I know It's only retailer, but maybe Xbox One didn't do that good in June?
Target is a major retailer of NPD data, and they cover both retail and online purchasing, so I say it's definitely an indication that Xbox One sales are not what the retailer had hoped for in July.
If sales had truly taken off after the MSRP dropped to $399, they wouldn't be so quick to offer this.
Target selling Kinectless Xbox One for $399 with $50 gift card starting July 20
I know It's only retailer, but maybe Xbox One didn't do that good in June?
And here we go.
All chips are on the Master Chief Collection table now, it seems.
Which, as a collection of a bunch of old games, is pretty damn scary.
Dragonborn
Member
Target selling Kinectless Xbox One for $399 with $50 gift card starting July 20
I know It's only retailer, but maybe Xbox One didn't do that good in June?
I'm just going to keep waiting, maybe a sub $300 price for Black Friday at the rate this is going. MS messed up.
the last time all the chips were on one game, it didn't go so well. And a remaster of games years old isn't going to do much. It'll sell to the Halo faithful, but it won't bring in much of the mainstream that makes the series huge (to them it'll just be those games I played years ago). Granted, the game itself will sell well but I doubt it'll have system selling power. No remake/collection has ever been a system seller, Halo isn't somehow the exception. If MS doesn't want to be demolished during the Holidays, they're going to have to go for some very aggressive promotions (at least in NA). WW it's going to be a bloodbath
.
I'd be fascinated to see some demographic data on console purchasers. I wonder if the fact that PS stuff skews older is the reason it is still selling well vs x1/wiiu?
lightning2k3
Member
Target selling Kinectless Xbox One for $399 with $50 gift card starting July 20
I know It's only retailer, but maybe Xbox One didn't do that good in June?
Doesn't this also stack with that 75 dollar xbox credit that I saw floating around? I remember reading that it would last until 7/31. On a related note, the PS4 has also been seen being discounted, although not at the level the xbox is. I remember seeing one on ebay for 360, so maybe both companies are seeing sales fall off faster than anticipated?
I applaud you for your courage, and at the same time fear for your sanity.
PS you may want to read some of the posts on the first page of the thread if you want to know how to format your numbers correctly and have a better chance of actually being close to the real numbers.
Dirtyshubb
Member
LOL Do we actually have an updated chalkboard for the XBone? I know a lot should have been crossed of by this point so wanted to check
The Super Mario All Stars Mario Set helped sell many SNES systems at a time in which Sega had more marketshare in America.
Overall, I don't think MS will be demolished during the Holidays. Sales during the past month for XB1 won't be indicative of how the system will do during that time. There's always an inevitable boost during the Holiday season and regardless of the new SKU, there really wasn't anything that released on the system in the month of June for it to have a HUGE boost in NPD sales and possibly do better than the PS4.
As I said before, I'm positive that the new SKU is going to help the system get an increase in sales in comparison to May and will help the system to continue on getting an increase in sales for pretty much the whole year up until January (for obvious reasons; reasons stated above).
TrebuchetGames
Member
Looking forward to this months NPD... I think it's going to be a very important one and may set the tone for most of the rest of the year.
[360] 59k
[3DS] 100k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 202k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 125k
Shame we've got to wait until next week for the results.
[360] 59k
[3DS] 100k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 202k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 125k
Shame we've got to wait until next week for the results.
My 16-bit history is hazy, but wasn't it not until Donkey Kong Country was released that the SNES finally went past the Genesis in NA sales?
SlipperySlope
Banned
No NPD today makes Jack a dull boy.
I still don't think of the Kinectless SKU as a price drop, because it isn't a lowering of the cost of 'complete' product. It contains less than the original SKU, and has less functionality, by default. I've said it before, but people ask what the difference is. While some customers outright don't *want* Kinect (as has been seen on here), losing a selling point of the system isn't a price-drop. If the standard SKU were 399, and the new one was 299, then I'd consider it a price drop. At this point, it's like releasing the No-HDD 360, or the 20gb PS3. They contain less for a lower price point... but without the low price level to get swift momentum.
Target selling Kinectless Xbox One for $399 with $50 gift card starting July 20
I know It's only one retailer, but maybe Xbox One didn't do that good in June?
Its gonna be March all over again isn't it?
Final Verdict
Member
Will be close race for lead this month, but I think PS4 will pull ahead by 10-15k.
[PS4] 145k
[XB1] 130k
[WiiU] 80k
[X360] 45k
[PS3] 30k
[PS4] 145k
[XB1] 130k
[WiiU] 80k
[X360] 45k
[PS3] 30k
What does this mean? All consoles will go up as we head towards the holidays. Do you mean not demolished in the US? Because overall worldwide it's going to be ugly.
I don't recall all stars being a system seller. Wasn't it just bundled with every console. Plus I'm pretty sure it was DK and KI that gave the SNES that nudge to beat genesis in the US in the end and Sega throw it up all over themselves.
Eh, why not?
[360] 50K
[3DS] 105K
[PS3] 50K
[PS4] 190K
[WIU] 105K
[XB1] 125K
I'm expecting the boost for the Wii U to push it over 100K, but all of the stories about it being "sold out" seem to actually be the failure of Nintendo to restock the stores quickly, so I'm not expecting much. Likewise, XB1 numbers don't sound great from the Target sale, but they'll still do good enough. PS4 is just being PS4 so that'll be doing fine
[360] 50K
[3DS] 105K
[PS3] 50K
[PS4] 190K
[WIU] 105K
[XB1] 125K
I'm expecting the boost for the Wii U to push it over 100K, but all of the stories about it being "sold out" seem to actually be the failure of Nintendo to restock the stores quickly, so I'm not expecting much. Likewise, XB1 numbers don't sound great from the Target sale, but they'll still do good enough. PS4 is just being PS4 so that'll be doing fine
Kazuma Kiryu
Member
Target selling Kinectless Xbox One for $399 with $50 gift card starting July 20
I know It's only one retailer, but maybe Xbox One didn't do that good in June?
Man, the deals just keep on coming. Price cuts, bundles, gift cards...
SwiftDeath
Member
Not trying to be rude but I am curious what makes you both think the PS4 will go down in sales so much for June?
May was 4 weeks of tracking and had 197k sales for PS4 or around 49.25k units sold per week.
At the same rate of sales for June since it's 5 weeks of tracking you would have ~ 246k PS4's sold in June.
145k sales for PS4 in June would represent 28k sales a week and a drop of weekly sales by ~ 43%. Just seems a fairly high drop to me is all I guess.
Mass Effect
Member
[PS4] 215k
[XB1] 140k
[WiiU] 95k
[3DS] 90k
[X360] 65k
[PS3] 40k
[XB1] 140k
[WiiU] 95k
[3DS] 90k
[X360] 65k
[PS3] 40k
theprodigy
Member
It's not just PS4 that's low for those two, so is everything else (except maybe Wii U, but even then).
Final Verdict
Member
X1 should pick up steam in October. I expect that to be the first month this year that they will win NPD.
The reason why is simple:
-They have 2 exclusives releasing -- Forza Horizon 2 & Sunset Overdrive. (FH2 is last day of September)
-They have exclusive content and/or marketing for three big AAA games --AC Unity, DAI, & Evolve.
This, along with bundles which they will likely create, should boost them up over the PS4 for the month, and then they will cruse along past Nov. with Halo MCC and CoD helping them out there too.
SwiftDeath
Member
The PS4 numbers stood out to me as especially odd though. Only other one that perhaps is as down from last months results is the 3DS numbers in the first one
Scully Scully Scoo
Member
how come uk never gets these amazing x1 deals, this is ms 2nd strong hold. anyway im just waiting for x1 slim to release, the console is just too damn big + i hate the massive external power supply.
ps4 will probably win this month again, it has the mindshare and it will take ms a long time to change that. i dont think the halo collection will to much either, while it is a great deal why would i buy a console to play games that i have already played. the first real system seller will be halo 5 next year
ps4 will probably win this month again, it has the mindshare and it will take ms a long time to change that. i dont think the halo collection will to much either, while it is a great deal why would i buy a console to play games that i have already played. the first real system seller will be halo 5 next year
bigboss370
Member
Everyone's predictions are putting PS4 ahead of X1 for June....do you guys not think the X1 price cut will have made an impact/boost?
From what information we have (see the first page of this thread), no.
Edit: boost, well, yes. But not enough to win the month.
May NPD for the X1 was ~70k. Everyone so far has XB1 numbers for June at least >100k. So yeah the price drop made a boost. But if these new deals are any indication, the boost didn't last...
Final Verdict
Member
I forgot that it was 5 weeks, but still think the numbers will be lower than last month.
PS4's numbers were high last month mostly because of Watch Dogs (it had exclusive marketing & content). And on top of that it had MLB: The Show release, alongside some other multiplatform games like Wolfenstein.
In June, hardly any noteworthy games were released, so the sales will be much slower.
Also, I somewhat follow VGC numbers, and while they are not exactly accurate on thier numbers, they give a fairly accurate Indication of how well each of the consoles are doing, and thier sales numbers for June are much lower than their numbers for May.
At best I think PS4 will match last month's numbers (thanks to the extra week), but I personally think they will be a little less.
....going to adjust my numbers for the extra week though....
Mikey Jr.
Member
Target selling Kinectless Xbox One for $399 with $50 gift card starting July 20
I know It's only one retailer, but maybe Xbox One didn't do that good in June?
Geez. $399 with another $50 off. I'm assuming target wouldn't be doing this if the $399 bundle was doing well?
BananaSprinkles
Banned
I don't think a single month has come and gone where they weren't projecting the Xbone to sell the most (before changing their numbers after NPD info is released.) So, uh...
SwiftDeath
Member
There's no hard evidence XB1 lost June but there's quite a bit of telltale signs
- On Amazon bestsellers for June, PS4 came in at #8, XB1 kinectless came in at #49, and XB1 TF bundle came in at #50
- We've gotten a decent glimpse into how things are selling at Best Buy retail
- There have been a plethora of recent XB1 deals. Targets Get $50 Gift Card with kinectless XB1, MS's select offer of $75 worth of Xbox credit with purchase of a XB1 in July, Dells offer of $100 Gift Card with purchase of XB1 kinectless and year of gold for $439
I do however think a boost of the XB1 is highly likely as my predictions on page 1 of this thread indicate
You actually make several salient points up until the chartz part. Chartz legitimately make up numbers based on no inside information or retail insight. They consistently do worse than a bulk of gaffers who guess numbers every month.
But yes I have wondered myself how much of a positive effect Watch Dogs had on PS4 in May and if perhaps we'll see a decline from whatever boost it gave. Also curious if the Destiny bundle for PS4 has any effect
Somewhere out there, an inexplicable shiver went down Aqua's spine.
SDCowboy
Member
Target selling Kinectless Xbox One for $399 with $50 gift card starting July 20
I know It's only one retailer, but maybe Xbox One didn't do that good in June?
I've said it before, I'll say it again. I really don't think price is the issue with the Xbone anymore. What if the consumer largely just isn't interested in the product, at least over the competition?
SDCowboy
Member
I'm sure it made some impact. But sure as heck not enough to surpass the PS4 for the month.
Chartz would have been ranked 141 out of 163 last month. I wouldn't put much stock in that site.
If it has any, it'd be a negative effect, from people deciding to preorder rather than buy one this month. September should be interesting, though.