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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th

prag16

prag16

Banned
[PS4] 220k
[XB1] 125k
[3DS] 120k
[WIU] 95k
[360] 55k
[PS3] 35k

Will probably edit (to my detriment) later.

I think the PS4 weekly average will decrease from May, but not nearly enough to put it in contention with xbone, which should increase, but I can't see it competing with PS4. Wii U and MK8 should have decent legs from the end of may surge, while PS360 continue their slow fade.
 
Coulomb_Barrier

Coulomb_Barrier

Member
[360] 65k
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 240k
[WIU] 100k
[XB1] 140k

Can't see Wii U getting the bump it deserves, only a small one for the extra week.

As per Abdiel's post, PS4 will remain largely consistent. And its time to update the chalkboard and cross out 'Kinectless SKU' will save the Xbox one.
 
K

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Bgamer90 said:
Amazon sales really aren't the end all be all. I want to say it was February in which a lot of people assumed the PS4 would crush the Xbox One in sales due to Amazon ratings when yet both systems were pretty close that month (with the PS4 selling more).
Click to expand...

I agree. But Amazon sales chart work better when all retail channels are available. Because we can assume with a degree if certainty that buying habits of XBO and PS4 buyers are close to identical. Then we can assume that there's the same proportional split between online and physical retail. In February we saw PS4 sold out in stores which meant people ordered online. The problem with Amazon is that they count those orders in the retail chart (see also: Destiny bundle).

Now they're better at making an indication of where the sales are located.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Coulomb_Barrier said:
As per Abdiel's post, PS4 will remain largely consistent. And its time to update the chalkboard and cross out 'Kinectless SKU' will save the Xbox one.
Click to expand...

If "saving the Xbox One" means the Xbox One coming in first place in sales rank then just toss the board out. I highly doubt it will happen anytime soon (if ever). None of the Xbox consoles have ever been #1 in sales rank for a gen. Don't see why it matters if the system will continue getting solid support.
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
Bgamer90 said:
If "saving the Xbox One" means the Xbox One coming in first place in sales rank then just toss the board out. I highly doubt it will happen anytime soon (if ever). None of the Xbox consoles have ever been #1 in sales rank for a gen. Don't see why it matters if the system will continue getting solid support.
Click to expand...

Right, but how little would the reduced price SKU have to help before it can be crossed off the board? Rather, what percentage, on average, would the sales have to increase for the cheaper SKU to be a success, in your opinion? The May NPD was, what, ~70k. If the cheaper SKU only gets the Bone up to ~100k-120, would you consider that a success?
 
Q

quetz67

Banned
SDCowboy said:
Right, but how little would the reduced price SKU have to help before it can be crossed off the board? Rather, what percentage, on average, would the sales have to increase for the cheaper SKU to be a success, in your opinion? The May NPD was, what, ~70k. If the cheaper SKU only gets the Bone up to ~100k-120, would you consider that a success?
Click to expand...
Sure not, as it would need to improve on the earlier numbers, not on the May numbers. Also the price Microsoft, some developers and even some gamers paid for it was pretty high.
 
M

MrJoe

Banned
PS4 will lead in sales period, whatever month you look at. that doesn't mean X1 needs "saving" or whatever. as long as it's profitable for Microsoft, that can be considered a success from their point of view, even if they are being outsold by PS4. money and profit are the things Microsoft is chiefly concerned about, not relative market position.
 
L

Lefein

Banned
Between Mario Kart 8 and Nintendo's fantastic E3, I think WiiU will edge out the XBone. PS4 will continue to be #1.
 
S

Sloane_Ranger

Member
[360] 54k
[3DS] 85k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 90k
[XB1] 110k


I do not think the kinectless XB1 will save it - but I do think that having a kinectless XB1 in the long run, will give consumers greater options and therefore a longer term positive effect on XB1 sales. Xbox has some great exclusives coming up for people who already enjoy their established exclusive franchises - but I do not see anything new (except for SO). Without a deeper list of new exclusive IP, I can not see the exclusives overtly effecting anything major outside of the already established fan-base. I am only giving WiiU a small bump - despite being personally excited about recent events (E3), I do not think that general (non gaming forum) consumers will be effected in the same manner.
 
Q

quetz67

Banned
MrJoe said:
PS4 will lead in sales period, whatever month you look at. that doesn't mean X1 needs "saving" or whatever. as long as it's profitable for Microsoft, that can be considered a success from their point of view, even if they are being outsold by PS4. money and profit are the things Microsoft is chiefly concerned about, not relative market position.
Click to expand...

That is really a simple view on things. It makes a difference if the multi billions of R&D and marketing have to be generated by 20M, 40M or 80M consoles. Same goes for the monthy costs the xbox division generates. Also it make a huge difference if you can produce full force or need to drop production to close to zero and even pay for warehouses.
 
M

MrJoe

Banned
quetz67 said:
That is really a simple view on things. It makes a difference if the multi billions of R&D and marketing have to be generated by 20M, 40M or 80M consoles. Same goes for the monthy costs the xbox division generates. Also it make a huge difference if you can produce full force or need to drop production to close to zero and even pay for warehouses.
Click to expand...

what, "money and profit are the things Microsoft is chiefly concerned about" is too simple of a viewpoint? I agree it is rather simple, but it is nevertheless true. that MS would prefer to be #1 rather than #2 is a given, but that just leads back to "money and profit." of course "more money" is better than "less money," but I still maintain that profit of any sort can be viewed as a success all things considered, beyond competitors like Sony or Nintendo.

MS has been trying desperately to break into the consumer electronics (hardware, not software) industry. the X-Box has been their single biggest success. that's why it's not going away. Windows Phone for example is a similar attempt, but is not nearly as successful. I fact I think it's fair to call Windows Phone an unqualified failure.
 
R

Road

Member
donny2112 said:
"More" in May than in June, maybe? :p
Click to expand...

Haha, yes, you're correct. Fixed it.


mrklaw said:
[360] 65k
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 45k
[PS4] 260k
[WIU] 110k
[XB1] 110k
[PSV] 40k

I think wiiU will actually be a tiny but less than that, and Xb1 a tiny but more, but neck and neck is more fun :)
Vita is a crap shoot if stocks were out everywhere
Click to expand...

There's a bonus if you get the right order in system sales, let's say PS4 > XB1 > 3DS > WIU > 360 > PS3.

Therefore, for the sake of the game, you should put at lest 1 unit difference between 3DS, WIU and XBO. If you get it right, extra 10 points.

(Although, to be honest, I don't know how donny2112 handles the order when people put the same sales for multiple systems.)

Anyway, last time I try to help in this thread. I think I'm being the obnoxious guy who says "You're playing the game wrong way! You have to play it like this!!11" People should just guess however they want. =)
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
SDCowboy said:
Right, but how little would the reduced price SKU have to help before it can be crossed off the board? Rather, what percentage, on average, would the sales have to increase for the cheaper SKU to be a success, in your opinion? The May NPD was, what, ~70k. If the cheaper SKU only gets the Bone up to ~100k-120, would you consider that a success?
Click to expand...

As long as it causes the sales to become higher over these next few months then I pretty much think the new SKU will have done what MS wanted it to do for the most part. Like I said before, sales will be up either way this Holiday season and the new SKU will more than likely make up a good chunk of those sales so even if the new SKU only causes about a 25-30K increase in Xbox One sales for this upcoming NPD, that still wouldn't mean that it was useless for MS to introduce the SKU at all in my opinion. The Xbox One desperately needed a new SKU under $500 before the start of this Holiday season.
 
K

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Crawl said:
Why is npd delayed by an extra week this month?
Click to expand...

7 * 4 = 28

So for every month, outside of February, we have 2-3 unaccounted days. Which means that about every third month we have an extra week of NPD.

:)
 
T

Tigress

Member
I'll take my first crack (though anything for not xbox one, PS4, or Vita is me totally using some one else's numbers cause I really don't know as I haven't followed those that well). I'm judging by what the guy who works at Best Buy is saying as well as Amazon rankings mostly as well as for Vita the fact that no one can find one but there seems to be more demand (hopefully Sony had 10k to sell). Sony's totally botching that up. You want to have the item to sell if people want it or they eventually lose interest. That is lost sales they are giving up there *grumble*. And I'm still not sure if 10k is over optimistic judging by how rare I hear they are.


[PS4] 250k
[XB1] 160k
[PSV] 10k
[360] 60k
[3DS] 115k
[PS3] 44k
[WIU] 114k
 
J

JumpJeff84

Member
I know it's merely anecdotal, but I'm at Best Buy as I type this. My girlfriend's buying a cord for her laptop.

I walked over to the game section and saw a kid purchasing an Xbox One.

In this same time period I saw ZERO PS4 units purchased. They were just sittin' there on the shelves gatherin' dust! Same with the WiiUs; no one was buying them either lol

XBOX ONE OUTSELLING PS4 BY A FACTOR OF 1-0 CONFIRMED. MY NPD PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE:

Xbone: 456, 0000
PS4: 0
WiiU: 0
 
K

Katana_Strikes

Member
Whoompthereitis said:
I know it's merely anecdotal, but I'm at Best Buy as I type this. My girlfriend's buying a cord for her laptop.

I walked over to the game section and saw a kid purchasing an Xbox One.

In this same time period I saw ZERO PS4 units purchased. They were just sittin' there on the shelves gatherin' dust! Same with the WiiUs; no one was buying them either lol

XBOX ONE OUTSELLING PS4 BY A FACTOR OF 1-0 CONFIRMED. MY NPD PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE:

Xbone: 456, 0000
PS4: 0
WiiU: 0
Click to expand...

That'll count towards July sales only. Sony still got June in the bag ;)
 
W

Wynnebeck

Banned
[PS4] 195K
[XB1] 137K
[WIU] 103K
[PS3] 25K
[360] 74K
[3DS] 80K

Really hard month to gauge. I don't think Wii U tops XB1 this month.
 
B

BananaSprinkles

Banned
[PS4] 222k
[XB1] 158k
[3DS] 109k
[WiU] 84k
[360] 64k
[PS3] 41k

Reasoning pulled completely out of my ass:

Wii U - Mario Kart 8 released (May 30th.) 10% boost in weekly sales from May.
XB1 - Kinect-less xbone released. 10% boost in weekly sales from April.
PS4, PS3, 3DS, 360 - Nothing to really impact June announced. 10% drop in weekly sales from May.
 
panda-zebra

panda-zebra

Member
[PS4] 246K
[3DS] 135K
[XB1] 134K
[WiiU] 79K
[360] 68K
[PSV] 57K
[PS3] 46K

Imagine ps4 to be steady, 3ds to maybe have a very slight tomodachi bump, xbone to see moderate kinectless bump, wiiu to ride mk8 wave but maybe suffer resupply, 360 and ps3 complete guess work this late in life cycle and hoping someone somewhere had Vitas to sell or that one could hurt.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
BananaSprinkles said:
[PS4] 222k
[XB1] 158k
[3DS] 109k
[WiU] 84k
[360] 64k
[PS3] 41k

Reasoning pulled completely out of my ass:

Wii U - Mario Kart 8 released (May 30th.) 10% boost in weekly sales from May.
XB1 - Kinect-less xbone released. 10% boost in weekly sales from April.
PS4, PS3, 3DS, 360 - Nothing to really impact June announced. 10% drop in weekly sales from May.
Click to expand...

Well there's E3, which might influence PS4 and 3DS out of that list (PS4 more so).

But I imagine some of that PS4 bump will get mitigated by preorders for the Destiny PS4 bundle. So it's a tossup.
 
SMOK3Y

SMOK3Y

Generous Member
MrJoe said:
PS4 will lead in sales period, whatever month you look at. that doesn't mean X1 needs "saving" or whatever. as long as it's profitable for Microsoft, that can be considered a success from their point of view, even if they are being outsold by PS4. money and profit are the things Microsoft is chiefly concerned about, not relative market position.
Click to expand...

dominant market share is profit though
 
X

Xenus

Member
Indeed dominant market share or near equal market share makes it easier to make exclusive deals. The further you fall behind the more those deals tend to cost up to a certain point. Imagine in a 2 years if it becomes too espensive tfor Microsoft to keep up the DLC first in Call of Duty, etc...
 
H

hawk2025

Member
I see no reason to assume that the Xbox E3 bump will be delayed until the MCC comes out, but the PS4 bump won't, especially since the Destiny bundle seems like a much more reasonable "I'll wait for this one" release than a new SKU that's out right now, and that people can use until Halo comes out.

If anything, the Halo bump may be smaller than expected in November due to most of the userbase that's interested in it already buying the console in the months leading up to release. The Titanfall effect all over again, basically.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Aquamarine said:
Yes there was a drop from March, but April and May seem to be pretty similar...PS4 holding steady at 49-50K.

I don't know why this would lead to a sudden drop in PS4 demand. At least, there doesn't seem to be enough precedent with E3 in June boosting sales and retail reports of PS4 demand remaining somewhat constant.
Click to expand...

You've talked me up, ever so slightly. My gut still says soften, but I'm pulling it up to 220K (44K per week) versus what I had before (41K per week). I think taking it down ~20% was probably too steep.
 
V

VanCityGamer

Member
beast786 said:
[360] 60K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 42K
[PS4] 150K
[WIU] 85K
[XB1] 320K

The kinect less sku will change the tide. Now at even price the xbox brad will dominate like last gen in USA . Especially since both require pay to play online
Click to expand...

I know these predictions are personal opinion which is cool, but I couldn't help dropping in to comment on how terrible they are. Just awful. How can you actually think the XB1 will outsell the PS4 that badly?
 
Z

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
[360] 75K
[3DS] 120K
[PS3] 40K
[PS4] 230K
[WIU] 130K
[XB1] 135K

Edit: Since the scoring encourages us not to have ties...
 
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