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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th

T

Tratorn

Member
Aquamarine said:
360:

June 2006 - 277K
June 2007 - 198K
June 2008 - 220K
June 2009 - 241K
June 2010 - 452K
June 2011 - 507K
June 2012 - 257K
June 2013 - 141K


PS3:

June 2007 - 98K
June 2008 - 406K
June 2009 - 165K
June 2010 - 305K
June 2011 - 279K
June 2012 - 189K
June 2013 - 109K
Click to expand...

Would be nice if you could do the same list for may. :)
 
J

Jomjom

Banned
artist said:
beast always comes in with over the top expectations for the bone, look for his previous predictions ;)
Click to expand...

My theory is that he actually hopes that the ps4 will outsell the xbone, but predicts the exact opposite and way exaggerated too, out of some sort of superstition; like he'll jinx it if he actually predicts what he truly believes.
 
S

ScribbleD

Member
Never tried this before, but here we go.

[360] 59K
[3DS] 55K
[PS3] 46K
[PS4] 255K
[XB1] 165K
[WIU] 10,000,000 please. Probably closer to 85k.
 
J

Jack Torrance

Neo Member
Mine (first time!)

[360] 65k
[3DS] 100k
[PS3] 35k
[PS4] 210k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 180k
[PSV] 15k

I also predict the Xbone faithful will decry the numbers in that the Xbox One numbers must be bigger, and that people will continue to say Amazon isn't a good barometer on sales (when it actually is as good as anything else).
 
L

libregkd

Member
[360] 61K
[3DS] 99K
[PS3] 36K
[PS4] 263K
[WIU] 101K
[XB1] 154K


I feel like I'm being a bit generous with those XB1 numbers. The new SKU will certainly bring a decent increase over May/April numbers but I actually sort of feel 150K+ may be too high for it. Whatever, sticking to these numbers! (Will probably end up revising before the deadline anyway.)
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Jack Torrance said:
Mine (first time!)

[360] 65k
[3DS] 100k
[PS3] 35k
[PS4] 165k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 180k
[PSV] 15k

I also predict the Xbone faithful will decry the numbers in that the Xbox One numbers must be bigger, and that people will continue to say Amazon isn't a good barometer on sales (when it actually is as good as anything else).
Click to expand...

Your numbers make no sense, if you're referencing Amazon... The PS4 has been consistent, the XB1 has not been. Why would the PS4 number drop in a 5 week month where the sales stayed consistent? This thread has already become fairly comical.
 
J

Jack Torrance

Neo Member
Abdiel said:
Your numbers make no sense, if you're referencing Amazon... The PS4 has been consistent, the XB1 has not been. Why would the PS4 number drop in a 5 week month where the sales stayed consistent? This thread has already become fairly comical.
Click to expand...

First time Abi, be gentle. You know far more than me. And you know what... you're right. I contradicted myself big time.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
From the other thread, since shinra-bansho did it better than me

May-to-June multipliers

Not adjusted

shinra-bansho said:
Code: 
360	PS3	WII	WIU
1.3		
1.3	1.2	1.1
1.2	[B][I][U]1.9[/U][/I][/B]	1.0
1.4	1.3	1.2
[B][I][U]2.3[/U][/I]	[I][U]2.0[/U][/I][/B]	1.3
[B][I][U]1.9[/U]	1.6[/I][/B]	1.2
[B][I]1.6[/I][/B]	1.5	1.3
1.2	1.3	1.5	1.3
Jun/May console multipliers.
Bold italics > 50% M/M increase.
Underlined, at/near/greater than 100% M/M increase.
Click to expand...

Adjusted

shinra-bansho said:
Why would one remove the top two and the bottom two? That's not how one defines outliers.

Normalised to number of weeks.
Code: 
360	PS3	WII	WIU
1.0			
1.0	1.0	0.9	
0.9	1.6	0.8	
1.1	1.0	1.0	
1.9	1.6	1.0	
1.5	1.2	0.9	
1.3	1.2	1.1
1.0	1.0	1.2	1.0
Click to expand...

Also, Amazon.com chart for the whole June

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-06/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar?tag=viglink129408-20
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Jack Torrance said:
First time Abi, be gentle. You know far more than me. And you know what... you're right. I contradicted myself big time.
Click to expand...

No, no. No harm, no foul. I just was confused by your justifications in context with your numbers. Other people are just posting numbers probably to troll. Lol.
 
A

A_Gorilla

Banned
PS4 outselling the XB1 is pretty much a given for me based on Amazon rankings and my own observations of my local Target.

What I really want to see is the Vita maintain its sale numbers.

hang-in-there-baby.jpg


*Can someone Photoshop the Vita onto this pic?
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
[360] 65k
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 45k
[PS4] 260k
[WIU] 110k
[XB1] 110k
[PSV] 40k

I think wiiU will actually be a tiny but less than that, and Xb1 a tiny but more, but neck and neck is more fun :)
Vita is a crap shoot if stocks were out everywhere
 
M

madp0k

Member
[PS4] 246k
[XB1] 118k
[WiU] 115k
[3DS] 105k
[360] 67k
[PS3] 58k

[PSV] 32k

My 1st npd prediction, nothing less than a top 3 is expected ;)
 
B

Bsigg12

Member
A_Gorilla said:
PS4 outselling the XB1 is pretty much a given for me based on Amazon rankings and my own observations of my local Target.

What I really want to see is the Vita maintain its sale numbers.

hang-in-there-baby.jpg


*Can someone Photoshop the Vita onto this pic?
Click to expand...

The Vita numbers could be really bad. It is literally impossible to find one unless you get it through dome weird 3rd party reseller.
 
K

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
[PS4] 245K
[XB1] 120K
[WIU] 85K
[PS3] 40K
[360] 75K
[3DS] 120K
[PSV] 5K

My guess is that it'll be roughly the same as last but with a bump to XBO and WiiU due to pent up demand and Mario Kart 8 respectively. Vita will continue a death rattle due to not being stocked. PS3 down and 360 up. PS4 staying the course but with a small drop.
 
M

Maitiú

Member
based on aquamarine's very helpful May-to-June adaptation,

[360] 70k
[3DS] 85k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 260k
[WIU] 120k
[XB1] 140k
 
M

Mr Croft

Member
PS4] 190k
[XB1] 200k
[WIU] 157k
[PS3] 40k
[360] 71k
[3DS] 87k

seening alot of new players on titanfall multiplayer and tomb raider on Xbox one. I predict Xbox gets a lucky month.
 
K

Kayant

Member
Ok now doing it properly to get counted never knew about the half-predictions not counting. Based my numbers on gamestop best sellers, amazon best sellers, Abdiel helpful post and Aquamarine's . Nothing is pointing toward a huge sales increase for XB1 although Halo MCC is doing really well on pre-orders. Wii U seems to also be doing really well.

[360] 77K
[3DS] 127k
[PS3] 46K
[PS4] 260K
[WIU] 85K
[XB1] 125K
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
June's NPD is going to be fascinating if the XB1 comes in second and if it's not even close. I could be horribly wrong, but I really don't think price is the issue with it anymore. The PS4 has won in the court of public opinion as the console to own this gen (or to at least get first). The two consoles being the same price won't change that, IMO.
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
A_Gorilla said:
PS4 outselling the XB1 is pretty much a given for me based on Amazon rankings and my own observations of my local Target.

What I really want to see is the Vita maintain its sale numbers.


*Can someone Photoshop the Vita onto this pic?
Click to expand...

Speaking of Amazon, I think July's NPD could be even more interesting. Currently (not overall for the month), the PS4 is at 9, the $399 Xbone has plummeted to the #77 stop and the TF bundle is #359. Like I've mentioned before, I really don't think price is the issue anymore.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
SDCowboy said:
Speaking of Amazon, I think July's NPD could be even more interesting. Currently (not overall for the month), the PS4 is at 9, the $399 Xbone has plummeted to the #77 stop and the TF bundle is #359. Like I've mentioned before, I really don't think price is the issue anymore.
Click to expand...

Just checked: the Titanfall bundle is that low because it's not in stock. It'll be in stock again on July 12th. That's the main reason.
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
Mpl90 said:
Just checked: the Titanfall bundle is that low because it's not in stock. It'll be in stock again on July 12th. That's the main reason.
Click to expand...

Fair enough and good catch. The $399 sku ranking still stands though. It will be interesting to see if any boost the xbone sees from the lower price last beyond the first month.
 
Q

quetz67

Banned
Is Vita dead?

SDCowboy said:
Fair enough and good catch. The $399 sku ranking still stands though. It will be interesting to see if any boost the xbone sees from the lower price last beyond the first month.
Click to expand...

Kinectless went from 50s ranks to 30s/40s ranks after TF bundle sold out. But now it is dropping. I think people rather wait for TF bundle to come back instead of buying the gimped version at only a small price advantage.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
SDCowboy said:
Fair enough and good catch. The $399 sku ranking still stands though. It will be interesting to see if any boost the xbone sees from the lower price last beyond the first month.
Click to expand...

It's going to get a boost in sales either way this upcoming Holiday season and I wouldn't be surprised if the system increases in sales for every month's NPD up until January.

Jack Torrance said:
I also predict the Xbone faithful will decry the numbers in that the Xbox One numbers must be bigger, and that people will continue to say Amazon isn't a good barometer on sales (when it actually is as good as anything else).
Click to expand...

Amazon sales really aren't the end all be all. I want to say it was February in which a lot of people assumed the PS4 would crush the Xbox One in sales due to Amazon ratings when yet both systems were pretty close that month (with the PS4 selling more).
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
Bgamer90 said:
It's going to get a boost in sales either way this upcoming Holiday season and I wouldn't be surprised if the system increases in sales for every month's NPD up until January.
Click to expand...

So you think the sales will increase every month from the previous month, from June-on? I guess time will tell.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
SDCowboy said:
So you think the sales will increase every month from the previous month, from June-on? I guess time will tell.
Click to expand...

Think there's a good possibility for that to be the case up until January.

Like I said before, the system is going to get a boost during November and December. Pretty inevitable. June to October is "maybe" but I wouldn't be surprised to see sales increase each month due to the new SKU on top of more games coming out (exclusive and multiplatform). Only possible months that I can see Xbox One beating PS4 in NPD sales is in November or December but it will be pretty close if it does (PS4 wouldn't be that far behind).
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Think there's a good possibility for that to be the case up until January.

Like I said before, the system is going to get a boost during November and December. Pretty inevitable. June to October is "maybe" but I wouldn't be surprised to see sales increase each month due to the new SKU on top of more games coming out (exclusive and multiplatform).
Click to expand...

Ah, gotcha. Fair enough. I really don't think the new SKU is going to do much for its sales beyond keeping it above the 100k mark (outside of any holiday increase which every console will see), but we will see. That's why these NPD's are so fun. lol
 
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