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[joecanada]

First time doing this

[PS4] 195k
[XB1] 175k
[WiiU] 70k
[3DS] 85k
[X360] 55k
[PS3] 50k

Heres one:

Holy shit, don't look now but that's almost half a chalkboard already... How's the WiiU one doing? Is mariokart gonna get crossed off too?

 

[EdReedFan20]

Holy shit, don't look now but that's almost half a chalkboard already... How's the WiiU one doing? Is mariokart gonna get crossed off too?

Who makes those chalkboards? Is there some sort of blank template to add things or is someone actually making each one uniquely?

 

[BananaSprinkles]

Holy shit, don't look now but that's almost half a chalkboard already... How's the WiiU one doing? Is mariokart gonna get crossed off too?

I guess we'll see, at least potentially, in a few days.

 

[anonymous_abc]

[360] 40
[3DS] 50
[PS3] 40
[PS4] 250
[WIU] 70
[XB1] 150

 

[BrokenIcarus]

Isn't that the wrong chalkboard? I only seem to remember this one:

 

[Aquamarine]

Thanks, good read.

Sounds like they take market sales samples, and then extrapolate those numbers to come up with what is basically more or less an educated guess rather than solid numbers.

Also Interesting to hear how their sale estimates for bigger games are usually a bit closer than smaller games which can be over 100% off the actual numbers, ouch!
Guess I won't be referencing them again...

Mobile market:

App Annie / Distimo = Mobile sell-through, often provided directly by publishers


Digital market:

Microsoft / Sony / Nintendo


Retail Market:


Sell-through:

USA / Canada / Australia / New Zealand Sell-through to consumers = The NPD Group

European / Other Sell-through to consumers = The GfK Group

Japanese Sell-through to consumers = Famitsu / Media Create / maybe Dengeki...they're a bit iffy at times



Shipments:

Wii + Wii U + DS + 3DS Sell-in to retailers = Nintendo IR

PS4 Sell-through estimates + PlayStation Console Sell-in to retailers + PlayStation Handheld Sell-in to retailers = Sony IR

360 + XBO Sell-in to retailers = Microsoft IR



Those are the only appropriate sources of video game data sales. Any other source is fundamentally superfluous and isn't relevant as a sales metric.

Chartz is one of a variety of websites that provides "sales estimates." The fundamental problem with the site, and others like it, is that it has absolutely no integrity or reliability to its data.

One number may be backed by research from The NPD Group, and another number may just be spontaneously made up on a whim with no hard sources behind it.

Sales tracking is a science. You can't trust science where the scientists just make up some of the evidence on a whim with no consistent methodology. Then it becomes deceitful and fradulent. The users of that site may claim "It's just harmless estimates," but the amount of attention that site gets all around the Internet---where people use those estimates as if they're cold, hard, factual numbers---really damages the integrity of discussion.

 

[ethomaz]

I'm really thinking in increase my PS4 prediction

215k is fine but I guess it will be a little better.

 

[TRI Mike]

impossible to predic imo

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Holy shit, don't look now but that's almost half a chalkboard already... How's the WiiU one doing? Is mariokart gonna get crossed off too?

The WiiU chalkboard was abandoned as soon as people realised the WiiU was not going to be saved. There's little point updating unless MK pulls some extraordinary numbers.

 

[Maxxan]

[PS4] 241K
[3DS] 114K
[XB1] 150K
[WIU] 78K
[360] 55K
[PS3] 35K

 

[Katana_Strikes]

I think all these XBone offers happening and MS silence in regards to not mentioning anything about how sales have gone so far, anywhere, with the new SKU, is wildly telling it hasn't done the job. They'll be counting down the days till Halo/CoD launches before they see any real battle with the PS4 at this rate.

 

[Blanquito]

So, with all the talk of the MCC pushing Xboxones, I wanted to look at how it appears to be selling -- using, of course, the only information available to a nobody like me: Amazon. Please note that I will only use the total sales pages, not the hourly updated pages that show sale velocity.

Note that this is purely speculation based on Amazon, though if someone who works at some major retailer could provide a simple "yeah, it's similar here too" or something that would be nice.

For the month of June, here are the rankings (looking primarily at preorders and consoles only):

• 8: PS4
• 10: Destiny PS4
• 14: MCC
• 15: TLoU:R
• 23: Destiny + White PS4
• ...
• 36: Destiny XBO
• ...
• 49: Xboxone w/o Kinect
• 50: Titanfall + XBO

Amazon June top sellers

So in the month it was announced, the MCC collection has a pretty big chunk of preorders, though it is beat by Destiny PS4 and closely followed by TLoU:R.

As of today, July 11, here are the rankings:

• 6: Destiny PS4 Limited Edition (currently sold out)
• 10: Destiny PS4
• 12: PS4
• 13: Destiny XBO
• 20: Destiny PS4 Ghost Edition (currently sold out)
• 23: Destiny XBO Ghost Edition (currently sold out)
• 24: TLoU:R
• 27: Destiny XBO Limited Edition (available)
• ...
• 48: Destiny + PS4 White
• ...
• 62: MCC
• 65: Xboxone w/o Kinect

The TitanFall bundle isn't in the top 100 (at least that I saw. Please correct any info here and I'll update).

Amazon overall July sales

So, things that we can see from one online retailer (that only accounts for about 5% of game sales, if I remember correctly -- from Aqua, I think.)

• More Destiny PS4 special bundles were made than XBO bundles, and all PS4 bundles are sold out while there still stock for the Destiny XBO L.E.
• Demand for the MCC has dropped hard, while Destiny has maintained demand -- even if you don't consider the bundles.

This is the part I was hoping someone in retail could make a quick comment on: do you see similar things in your stores for the MCC and the other preorders?

Anyway, like I said, this only applies to Amazon and probably can't be extrapolated out to the whole market. However, I find info like this fun and interesting, so I thought I would share.

 

[Aquamarine]

Anyway, like I said, this only applies to Amazon and probably can't be extrapolated out to the whole market. However, I find info like this fun and interesting, so I thought I would share.

Amazon is interesting, but I'm not sure how relevant it is as a representative sample of total NPD numbers. GameStop, Target, Wal-Mart, and Best Buy are crucial to NPD numbers, especially GameStop and Wal-Mart. Amazon is around 5% of NPD's market...it's still relevant, but because it's digital-only, it sometimes skews to different demographics than what you would find a primarily big-box retailer where you get more people that tend to purchase on impulse.

Like, for example, a niche Japanese RPG might be much more popular on Amazon than Wal-Mart, so if you just looked at Amazon rankings and extrapolated it out, you would get the wrong idea about total NPD demand. Something like that.

Then again, it should be at least somewhat relevant given it is the #5 retailer for this kind of thing.

 

[Blanquito]

Amazon is interesting, but I'm not sure how relevant it is as a representative sample of total NPD numbers. GameStop, Target, Wal-Mart, and Best Buy are crucial to NPD numbers, especially GameStop and Wal-Mart. Amazon is around 5% of NPD's market...it's still relevant, but because it's digital-only, it sometimes skews to different demographics than what you would find a primarily big-box retailer who purchases on impulse.

Like, for example, a niche Japanese RPG might be more popular on Amazon than Wal-Mart, so if you just looked at Amazon rankings and extrapolated it out, you would gt the wrong idea about total NPD demand. Something like that.

Then again, it should be at least somewhat relevant given it is the #5 retailer for this kind of thing.

Yup, which is why I made sure to make that point clear. Thanks!

 

[chubigans]

Amazes me people largely believe the PS4 will be beating out the XB1 still.

Really? It's price-cut month, there is always a boost with price cuts.

Is it really a price cut though? It's a new SKU, without Kinect, sitting alongside another XB1 SKU that's still $499. Imagine the difference if retailers just slashed all existing XB1s to $399.

 

[3rdamention]

So, with all the talk of the MCC pushing Xboxones, I wanted to look at how it appears to be selling -- using, of course, the only information available to a nobody like me: Amazon. Please note that I will only use the total sales pages, not the hourly updated pages that show sale velocity.

Note that this is purely speculation based on Amazon, though if someone who works at some major retailer could provide a simple "yeah, it's similar here too" or something that would be nice.

For the month of June, here are the rankings (looking primarily at preorders and consoles only):

• 8: PS4
• 10: Destiny PS4
• 14: MCC
• 15: TLoU:R
• 23: Destiny + White PS4
• ...
• 36: Destiny XBO
• ...
• 49: Xboxone w/o Kinect
• 50: Titanfall + XBO

Amazon June top sellers

So in the month it was announced, the MCC collection has a pretty big chunk of preorders, though it is beat by Destiny PS4 and closely followed by TLoU:R.

As of today, July 11, here are the rankings:

• 6: Destiny PS4 Limited Edition (currently sold out)
• 10: Destiny PS4
• 12: PS4
• 13: Destiny XBO
• 20: Destiny PS4 Ghost Edition (currently sold out)
• 23: Destiny XBO Ghost Edition (currently sold out)
• 27: Destiny XBO Limited Edition (available)
• ...
• 48: Destiny + PS4 White
• ...
• 62: MCC
• 65: Xboxone w/o Kinect

The TitanFall bundle isn't in the top 100 (at least that I saw. Please correct any info here and I'll update).

Amazon overall July sales

So, things that we can see from one online retailer (that only accounts for about 5% of game sales, if I remember correctly -- from Aqua, I think.)

• More Destiny PS4 special bundles were made than XBO bundles, and all PS4 bundles are sold out while there still stock for the Destiny XBO L.E.
• Demand for the MCC has dropped hard, while Destiny has maintained demand -- even if you don't consider the bundles.

This is the part I was hoping someone in retail could make a quick comment on: do you see similar things in your stores for the MCC and the other preorders?

Anyway, like I said, this only applies to Amazon and probably can't be extrapolated out to the whole market. However, I find info like this fun and interesting, so I thought I would share.

One thing you missed. The Last of Us didn't drop off the rankings in July. You have it at 15th in June, but it is sitting at 24th in July. It just appears to drop off the rankings in your post, but it is holding strong.

 

[Blanquito]

One thing you missed. The Last of Us didn't drop off the rankings in July. You have it at 15th in June, but it is sitting at 24th in July. It just appears to drop off the rankings in your post, but it is holding strong.

Thanks, fixed.

 

[quetz67]

Heres one:

Tier 2 countries, seriously?

I think Pricedrop/Kinectless SKU can be crossed out and be replaced by "$299 Kinectless SKU". That together with the listed games out and actually good might give the XB1 a chance in the US.

 

[Danthrax]

[PS4] 260k
[XB1] 150k
[WIU] 115k
[3DS] 110k
[360] 70k
[PS3] 45k

 

[Mattenth]

[PS4] 190k
[3DS] 82k
[XB1] 130k
[Wii U] 61k
[360] 60k
[PS3] 40k

 

[CorporateClown]

[PS4] 230k
[XB1] 110k
[WIU] 93k
[3DS] 112k
[360] 69k
[PS3] 42k

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Demand for the MCC has dropped hard, while Destiny has maintained demand -- even if you don't consider the bundles.

None of this surprising considering MCC is, tbh, a repackaging of old games with snazzy graphics. Whereas Destiny is a legit new game.

 

[Blanquito]

None of this surprising considering MCC is, tbh, a repackaging of old games with snazzy graphics. Whereas Destiny is a legit new game.

Yeah, my purpose was two-fold: 1) to see what effect (if any) the MCC would have on Xboxone sales before the release date, and 2) To get an idea of how much demand there would be for an Xboxone come September due to the MCC vs other high profile games such as Destiny.

 

[Bruno MB]

[360] 70,000
[3DS] 129,000
[PS3] 42,000
[PS4] 222,000
[WIU] 85,000
[XB1] 128,000

 

[ethomaz]

Amazon is interesting, but I'm not sure how relevant it is as a representative sample of total NPD numbers. GameStop, Target, Wal-Mart, and Best Buy are crucial to NPD numbers, especially GameStop and Wal-Mart. Amazon is around 5% of NPD's market...it's still relevant, but because it's digital-only, it sometimes skews to different demographics than what you would find a primarily big-box retailer where you get more people that tend to purchase on impulse.

Like, for example, a niche Japanese RPG might be much more popular on Amazon than Wal-Mart, so if you just looked at Amazon rankings and extrapolated it out, you would get the wrong idea about total NPD demand. Something like that.

Then again, it should be at least somewhat relevant given it is the #5 retailer for this kind of thing.

I just checked the NPD month sales with Amazon and maybe expected the only month Amazon shows XB1 outselling PS4 in the ranking was December... same for NPD.

So for now at least the hardware places in Amazon is pretty accurate with NPD.

 

[BananaSprinkles]

I just checked the NPD month sales with Amazon and maybe expected the only month Amazon shows XB1 outselling PS4 in the ranking was December... same for NPD.

So for now at least the hardware places in Amazon is pretty accurate with NPD.

Amazon's early months are a bit questionable. The launch edition of the PS4 is nowhere to be found in the rankings.

 

[Graphics Horse]

launch months are bad because they don't include sales that were pre ordered in the previous months. I think Amazon is ok as long as you take things like that and what aqua says into account.

 

[Bgamer90]

The only people buying are those that want their exclusives. Nobody else is going to pay the same price for a weaker system unless they simply don't know about the difference. But the fact of the matter is the average consumer isn't as dumb as gaf likes to believe.

Heh, this is exactly what some did in terms of buying the PS3 last gen. Many of the top selling PS3 games were multiplats and some people got a PS3 mainly for them (and not really for exclusives). Same is true now for the Xbox One. Not everyone is buying the system due to its exclusives.

It's not about being "dumb". Some can simply be attracted to one console over the other for their own personal reasons outside of game exclusives even while ::gasp:: knowing the power difference.

 

[BananaSprinkles]

Now that I think about it, I was under the impression those rankings only included items that were being sold, and pre-orders didn't count as sales until the months they were shipped. But that's not the case since the PS4 Destiny bundle was 23rd in June.

 

[Aquamarine]

Now that I think about it, I was under the impression those rankings only included items that were being sold, and pre-orders didn't count as sales until the months they were shipped. But that's not the case since the PS4 Destiny bundle was 23rd in June.

They're lumping sales and preorders because the purpose of that ranking list is to help build momentum for their most popular products through advertising.

 

[BananaSprinkles]

They're lumping sales and preorders because the purpose of that ranking list is to help build momentum for their most popular products through advertising.

Then do they not have an accurate ranking for what they've actually sold to customers that's publicly available?

 

[archnemesis]

[360] 70k
[3DS] 120k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 150k

 

[Asd202]

[360] 80K
[3DS] 115K
[PS3] 55K
[PS4] 220K
[WIU] 95K
[XB1] 150K

 

[ethomaz]

Amazon's early months are a bit questionable. The launch edition of the PS4 is nowhere to be found in the rankings.

For November you need to sum all preorder made in previous months... the ranking become more reliable after the product launch.

Dec: XB1 > PS4
Jan: PS4 > XB1
Feb: PS4 > XB1
Mar: PS4 > XB1
Apr: PS4 > XB1
May: PS4 > XB1

Just like NPD.

Jun: PS4 > XB1

So I guess NOS will show PS4 ahead again.

 

[Isleofsancroy]

Why does Xbox even have a chart? Its not even close to the same situation as the Wii u or vita.

 

[FiggyCal]

[PS4] 210k
[XB1] 95k
[WiiU] 100k
[3DS] 90k
[X360] 70k
[PS3] 50k

I'll probably change these soon,

 

[Serenity]

Why does Xbox even have a chart? Its not even close to the same situation as the Wii u or vita.

Ps3 had a chart. The chart is just a meme to collect all the reasons fans say one system will soon outsell the other. It's just fun. And while its doing fine in the US and UK in mainland Europe it appears that the xone is actually lower in sales than the Wii U.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Ps3 had a chart. The chart is just a meme to collect all the reasons fans say one system will soon outsell the other. It's just fun. And while its doing fine in the US and UK in mainland Europe it appears that the xone is actually lower in sales than the Wii U.

I wish we went back in time to see what would be on the Saturn/Gamecube chart.

 

[Dragonborn]

Why does Xbox even have a chart? Its not even close to the same situation as the Wii u or vita.

The X1 has been doing terrible in NA and it's practocally dead everywhere else. Doing better than the Wii U doesn't say much.

 

[SDCowboy]

Why does Xbox even have a chart? Its not even close to the same situation as the Wii u or vita.

I guess we'll see. If the sales were still crap for June then, yeah, I'd say it's entering Wii U territory. Either way, it doesn't have to be WiiU, stone cold dead, to have a chalkboard.

 

[Bgamer90]

We'll see. If the sales are still crap for June then, yeah, I'd say it's entering Wii U territory.

A "disappointing" (under 150K I guess?) June still wouldn't put it in anywhere close to Wii U territory.

The Wii U still hasn't had a month above 200K in NPD since launch... Fall/Holiday months after launch included -- edit: I stand corrected; just checked. Wii U did over 200K in November and December of last year. All other months have been under 200K.

The Wii U has been under 50K for multiple months. None of the other (new) current gen consoles have hit that low (and probably never will... at least not before their successors are released).

 

[SDCowboy]

A "disappointing" (under 150K I guess?) June still wouldn't put it in anywhere close to Wii U territory.

The Wii U still hasn't had a month above 200K in NPD since launch... Fall/Holiday months after launch included. The Wii U has been under 50K for multiple months too. None of the other (new) current gen consoles have hit that low (and probably never will... at least not before their successors are released).

IMO, crap sales for the month would be sub-130. Fair points though. Still, the chalkboard belongs as even though it may not be a decaying corpse like the WiiU, it's not selling like an Xbox console should be. Sub 100k sales, this early, in the US, is horrible.

 

[Jamix012]

A "disappointing" (under 150K I guess?) June still wouldn't put it in anywhere close to Wii U territory.

The Wii U still hasn't had a month above 200K in NPD since launch... Fall/Holiday months after launch included. The Wii U has been under 50K for multiple months too. None of the other (new) current gen consoles have hit that low (and probably never will... at least not before their successors are released).

But Wii U's best NPD month was December 2013...I can't remember exact numbers, but I'm pretty sure it was 400k+

I don't think anyone is comparing the Xbox One to the Wii U. It's still selling like ass. Just markedly better ass.

 

[Aquamarine]

A "disappointing" (under 150K I guess?) June still wouldn't put it in anywhere close to Wii U territory.

The Wii U still hasn't had a month above 200K in NPD since launch... Fall/Holiday months after launch included. The Wii U has been under 50K for multiple months too. None of the other (new) current gen consoles have hit that low (and probably never will... at least not before their successors are released).

But Wii U's best NPD month was December 2013...I can't remember exact numbers, but I'm pretty sure it was 400k+

I don't think anyone is comparing the Xbox One to the Wii U. It's still selling like ass. Just markedly better ass.

1) December 2013 - 481K
2) December 2012 - 463K
3) November 2012 - 425K
4) November 2013 - 223K

 

[Aquamarine]

IMO, crap sales for the month would be sub-130. Fair points though. Still, the chalkboard belongs as even though it may not be a decaying corpse like the WiiU, it's not selling like an Xbox console should be. Sub 100k sales, this early, in the US, is horrible.

Xbox:
June 2002 - 263K
June 2003 - 166K

Xbox 360:
June 2006 - 277K
June 2007 - 198K

This is how Xbox should be selling in the USA market in June.

If Xbox One can't manage 100K in June, there's something seriously wrong with its value proposition.

 

[BrokenIcarus]

A "disappointing" (under 150K I guess?) June still wouldn't put it in anywhere close to Wii U territory.

The Wii U still hasn't had a month above 200K in NPD since launch... Fall/Holiday months after launch included. The Wii U has been under 50K for multiple months too. None of the other (new) current gen consoles have hit that low (and probably never will... at least not before their successors are released).

NPD isn't everything, though.

MS will always have at least decent sales in the US, but it will struggle immensly in europe and even worse in Japan.

The Wii U is selling pretty well in Japan and to a lesser extent in Europe.

Comparing both only with NPD isn't very fair.

If XB1 has a <150k 5-week June, it's definitely fair to make the Wii U comparisons.

 

[Majmun]

[PS4] 165K

How is that a possibility when you take the 5 week tracking period into consideration?

Or does the Ps4 still has major stock issues according to you?

 

[SDCowboy]

How is that a possibility when you take the 5 week tracking period into consideration?

Or does the Ps4 still has major stock issues according to you?

There seems to be a lot of predictions here that either don't know it's a 5 week month or think the PS4 is inexplicably going to fall off a cliff.

 

[Graphics Horse]

If Xbox One can't manage 100K in June, there's something seriously wrong with its value proposition.

Well it'll do that easily, if we believe the last drop was mostly people waiting for the kinectless box. But I'm interested in what last month plus this month average out at, I don't think it'll be over 130k per month.

 

[Bgamer90]

IMO, crap sales for the month would be sub-130.

Ah, okay. Just didn't know what you meant. I agree.

Fair points though. Still, the chalkboard belongs as even though it may not be a decaying corpse like the WiiU, it's not selling like an Xbox console should be. Sub 100k sales, this early, in the US, is horrible.

It's only sub-100K month though was during the month in which the cheaper SKU was announced (and pretty early too). Obvious that it had an impact. Now if it had/has multiple months under 100K without any announcements similar to that one then yeah, that would be horrible.
__________________

But Wii U's best NPD month was December 2013...I can't remember exact numbers, but I'm pretty sure it was 400k+

You're right. My mistake. Everything was focused on the Xbox One and PS4 that month. It did 220K in November 2013 too. All other months since launch have been under 200K.

I don't think anyone is comparing the Xbox One to the Wii U. It's still selling like ass. Just markedly better ass.

I don't know how you classify that (heh) but if I used those terms then I would say that the PS4 is doing "average" and I wouldn't say that's the case (at all). The gap between the Wii U from November 2012 to May 2013 (Wii U's first year) vs. Xbox One right now is bigger than Xbox One vs. PS4 in terms of NPD and that was when the Wii U didn't have any same gen competition. Xbox One sold more than double what the Wii U did in the same period.

Xbox One is at around 2.7 Million in terms of sales in America based on last month's NPD iirc. Wii U wasn't even at 1.2 Million this time year last.

____________

NPD isn't everything, though.

MS will always have at least decent sales in the US, but it will struggle immensly in europe and even worse in Japan.

I definitely agree. My post was based on NPD predictions though.