What would be the point it should reach then for things to be acceptable in your opinion? Based on that, I could understand if one said that the Xbox One should at least be at 200K for June but I don't think that will be the case.
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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
What would be the point it should reach then for things to be acceptable in your opinion? Based on that, I could understand if one said that the Xbox One should at least be at 200K for June but I don't think that will be the case.
Selling well is a pretty big stretch for Wii U sales in Japan, home console sales are just a sad wasteland now in Japan.
Aquamarine
Member
Based on precedent? It needs to be at least 160-170K.
If it's lower than Xbox 360's 2013 sales (141K), that would be concerning. Under 100K and we can start to bring Wii U sales into the discussion.
Agree. I would be really surprised if it's under 150K.
Yoda
Member
I think July's numbers will be very telling. June's will probably be inflated from the new SKU's announcement. July won't have any people who may have held out in May to buy in June. Microsoft needs to increase it's month to month baseline of sales otherwise it will be a slow painful slide until the holidays.
Dunno where this sub 150k talk for X1 is coming from it should be able to easily beat out 100k when May was 77k. Are people really suggesting that a $100 off the basic sku and bundles galore is less than 80k of additional sales?
Also for that amazon ranking one thing you need to consider is that even though individually the each sku of the X1 is lower there are more than 1. So if it was possible to see the combined total ranked it could be much higher than it appears. A similar effect was seen earlier in the year when you had the titanfall bundle along side the bare $499 sku.
Also for that amazon ranking one thing you need to consider is that even though individually the each sku of the X1 is lower there are more than 1. So if it was possible to see the combined total ranked it could be much higher than it appears. A similar effect was seen earlier in the year when you had the titanfall bundle along side the bare $499 sku.
Yoda
Member
Well remember during March the X1 was unofficially on sale. A bundled game + $50 price cuts at most major retailers and it still underperformed. In this case it is cheaper but it isn't technically a price-cut because the are removing the Kinect from the package. There are no highly anticipated games, and it's still selling at price parity with the competition, not below it. It will be 100k easily because it was a 5 week tracking period + E3. The question is whether the new SKU adds new baseline sales outside of those two factors.
spatenfloot
Member
[360] 55k
[3DS] 99k
[PS3] 33k
[PS4] 221k
[WIU] 66k
[XB1] 144k
[3DS] 99k
[PS3] 33k
[PS4] 221k
[WIU] 66k
[XB1] 144k
This means you expect the 3DS to have sold 0 units in June. Just FYI.
Also [360] and [WIU], not [X360] and [WiiU]. It's especially important with the 360, since what I use to collect the predictions keys off of [360], so your prediction would be missed currently...
[PS4] 220k
[XB1] 140k
[WiiU] 90k
[3DS] 80k
[X360] 65k
[PS3] 45k
Unlike the rest of you heathens, i do take Amazon charts for something! I kid =P, but i do take them more seriously than most do. Its one of the only few ways to even get a feel for how something is doing, and its better than nothing. And so far has predicted the rankings just fine for NPD. It obviously cannot predict the range. So one has to take the placement of products and try to gauge some kind of narrative.
I think this forum would burn to the ground if XB1 does 90k and Wii U does 100k, i do not believe that will happen, i think the Xbox brand still carries some weight, that is clearly diminished and continues to diminish but it is still there.
[XB1] 140k
[WiiU] 90k
[3DS] 80k
[X360] 65k
[PS3] 45k
Unlike the rest of you heathens, i do take Amazon charts for something! I kid =P, but i do take them more seriously than most do. Its one of the only few ways to even get a feel for how something is doing, and its better than nothing. And so far has predicted the rankings just fine for NPD. It obviously cannot predict the range. So one has to take the placement of products and try to gauge some kind of narrative.
I think this forum would burn to the ground if XB1 does 90k and Wii U does 100k, i do not believe that will happen, i think the Xbox brand still carries some weight, that is clearly diminished and continues to diminish but it is still there.
Jimmyfenix
Member
Don't know about E3 but for the Destiny Alpha a lot of people in that thread were buying PS4 specifically for the Alpha.
SwiftDeath
Member
To get into the alpha, or to eventually buy Destiny because the Alpha looked good?
Jimmyfenix
Member
I saw a few posters saying it just to try out the Alpha it was the usual "I went and bought a PS4 for this hope it is good" It probably does not mean anything but that thread was hype.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
I'm really surprised that nearly everyone thinks the PS4 still outsold the Bone.
About a month ago a lot of people were saying that there's no way the Xbox wouldn't sell more because of the pent up interest from May's early price-cut announcement.
About a month ago a lot of people were saying that there's no way the Xbox wouldn't sell more because of the pent up interest from May's early price-cut announcement.
SwiftDeath
Member
That may be true I suppose but the interesting thing is with Sony's Destiny Bundle, anyone wanting a PS4 to play Destiny once it comes out will go that route. I think its much smarter overall but it is has the potential to hold off some sales prior to the bundles release if that's what people want.
I was one of those people. I would never guarantee any outcome because I believe most outcomes are at least possible, but it seemed clear to me based on how MS announced the kinectless SKU that they wanted to push some May sales into June. Kinectless was announced on May 13th with 18 days of tracking still left in the May NPD tracking period. But June has come and went and besides that one Gamestop comment we don't have any real evidence to suggest it's led to the XB1 outselling the PS4, especially with the best buy insight.
DaleinCalgary
Member
The only sales figures I can see are Amazon best sellers. And that would mean PS4 is still outselling the XBOX1 by a wide margin.
We will just have to wait and see.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Yep, my predictions are based partly off that single Gamestop comment as well as a peaking at the Amazon best sellers charts, where XB1 is curiously still way off the PS4.
I'm looking forward to see the effect of TLOU: R but that won't transpire for a couple months for the full picture.
Like who? It's the slow Summer season and the Xbox One didn't have any big exclusive title to go alongside the new cheaper SKU; a new (big) exclusive would bring more attention to the system and get more people to see the new SKU.
So while I'm positive it did better than last month, I'm also pretty positive that it's not going to do better than the PS4.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Well what I'm talking about is after Titanfall didn't manage to lift the XB1 to the No.1 spot in the NPD charts for March, people were saying that it's only got a chance to lead when the price cut comes.
Now the price-cut is here, and people (not necessarily you) are saying wait for the exclusive titles to come again. But we saw with TF that that won't help either!
Maybe I need to have a good look at that chalkboard to just assess what exactly is left for the console to catch a break...
And it still has that chance. It definitely needed at least a $400 SKU before the Holiday season. While I'm not going to say it's guaranteed that the Xbox One will beat the PS4 in NPD during a month this year, I wouldn't be surprised if it does (by a pretty small amount) in November or December assuming there will be deals and new bundles alongside exclusives like Halo: MMC.
Which exclusives are we talking about though? I wouldn't put a new IP (Titanfall) in the same group as a game series that's well established/popular that has been around for a decade or more.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Whether the XB1 can steal a month or two this year doesn't really mean much obviously. They need to arrest the PS4 gaining a bigger and bigger share of the US market.
I assume you are talking about Halo: Anniversary in your last paragraph but let's remember this is not a mainline Halo title and I would even go as far as to say that it will get lost a little amongst the Christmas stampede of titles like COD, BF etc
The reason everyone thought TF would do well and boost sales is because it was released in a drought period in terms of new titles.
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
And I don't think that will happen anytime soon. The Xbox One will need to pretty much outsell the PS4 by at least 100,000 every month this year to have a chance at passing it during the early part of this gen. The system should still do pretty well with the upcoming Q4 games and the new $400 SKU should help with that.
I don't really think it will get lost. The majority of people with an Xbox One should at least know about the collection -- well, at least by the time it releases.
It did do pretty solid (top selling Xbox One game so far right?) and helped Xbox One sales (over 2/3 of Xbox One's sold that month were the Titanfall SKU iirc) but in terms of the game just completely changing things around for the Xbox One? Changing the sales rank? Becoming this gen's Halo at a time in which there are already multiple popular console shooters? Yeah, didn't think that at all and even said that Titanfall would probably die down in popularity once the Fall shooters were released.
I don't think many people who thought that Titanfall would just comepletely change things around and dominate thought so just because it released during a drought period. They thought that simply because the game was hyped as being "the next big thing".
_______________________
I would say there's definitely a difference between a new IP like Sunset Overdrive and a (more than likely) big release like Halo 5. Am I wrong for thinking that?
Halo MCC will be lucky to outsell Titanfall tbh. Titanfalls sales weren't bad at all, it just didn't have the impact people expected for both the XBOne and as the next big shooter. Destiny is going to be a much bigger release, no doubt eclipsing any Halo game in sales (over time). I doubt MCC impacts XBOne sales as much as another price drop/ aggressive bundling will.
ethomaz
Banned
Sub-100k will be a surprise... but over that and under 150k will be what most expect for it.
I have the exact opposite view... It will be a surprise if XB1 manage to win June... the gap in sales is just too big to be shifted.
postcyberpunk
Banned
Did we get store numbers or something?
We occasionally get input from a best buy employee who has access to their own district distribution numbers.
postcyberpunk
Banned
And I guess those numbers suggest PS4 still leading?
Isleofsancroy
Banned
I lost you in your delusion of it doing "TERRIBLE" in na and UK.
Delusibeta
Banned
[360] 50k
[3DS] 80k
[PS3] 30k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 110k
[XB1] 90k
[3DS] 80k
[PS3] 30k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 110k
[XB1] 90k
Delusibeta
Banned
But it is. I mean, last month the Xbone did sub-80k in the US, and got outsold 2.5:1 vs the PS4. If that isn't terrible, then I don't know what is.
postcyberpunk
Banned
Thanks for the repost.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
How about looking up.the definition of terrible? Disappointing sales in comparison to the first place product is not the same as "terrible" sales.
Outside of price drops, no E3 announcements ever have an effect on sales.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Unless they came out shortly after, which I believe all 3 companies screwed up on.
drak_dreamer
Member
[360] 39k
[3DS] 93k
[PS3] 24k
[PS4] 172k
[WIU] 101k
[XB1] 136k
[3DS] 93k
[PS3] 24k
[PS4] 172k
[WIU] 101k
[XB1] 136k
Delusibeta
Banned
The Xbone's April 2014 is apparently the second worst April performance for a Microsoft console since 2005, after the 360's April 2014 performance. I'd imagine the same would be true for May 2014. I think it would be fair to say that Xbone's 2014 is tracking far behind the 360's 2006, and the latter had supply issues for most of that year.
DaleinCalgary
Member
It's not doing PS4 numbers but it's still doing fine.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Nothing you are saying shows its selling terrible.Your comparing one month to the 360 at a different time.
A time when 360 had a head start with more games, the public said Competitor one had no games and cost to much, and competitor 2 was a childrens toy (which would soon take off.)
Exactly the same situation. Wut?
Delusibeta
Banned
It's did worse in April this year than the 360 at any previous April in its active life. Any of them. It sold less than 20k a week in May, its seventh month on the market. The most hyped exclusive in a decade resulted in a drop of average weekly sales. Now we've got price parity with it's major competitor and all indications suggest that it hasn't moved the needle. It's doing terribly. Sure, it's doing better than the WiiU and the Vita did, but that's roughly equivalent of jumping over a bar that's buried into the ground.
Have you wondered why there's chat over the Xbox brand getting sold off? The fact that there's even talk of that being a vague possibility and Microsoft execs having to explicitly deny it is a demonstration as to how badly the Xbone is selling.
I know right. MS is totally fine with the fact that they are seceding marketshare back to Sony every month in NA while constantly being outsold on a monthly basis. Totes fine!
ultratruman
Banned
I'm having flashbacks to the Wii U sales threads of early 2013
Isleofsancroy
Banned
Man all those aprils the Xbox One had! You are literally fooling yourself, the sold off part is also silly talk. The only official statement from MS was spinning off being a discussion, which is not the same thing. But lets ignore Sony discussions of cutting or selling the PS brand and other such things.
Now, I have no real care of the Xbox but for a division making tons of money and selling well, saying its doing "terrible" is pure drug talk. Vita is doing terrible, Wii u could be considered doing terrible, not Xbox. You have no ground to walk on to prove the Xbox is doing terrible.
Now, I have no real care of the Xbox but for a division making tons of money and selling well, saying its doing "terrible" is pure drug talk. Vita is doing terrible, Wii u could be considered doing terrible, not Xbox. You have no ground to walk on to prove the Xbox is doing terrible.
Isleofsancroy
Banned
You have to be on something when losing a competition=terrible the company is failing. U also like those words you added I never said.