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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th

B

BananaSprinkles

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Chartzzzzz's laughable predictions (under the guise of "sales numbers") are now up:


PS4 - 198,273
XOne - 183,251
3DS - 157,125
WiiU - 135,517
X360 - 76,502
PS3 - 39,758
PSV - 18,082
Wii - 15,693
PSP - 2,659

Last time their "numberz" were off by quite a significant margin (the average GAFfer did much better than them).

Last month's prediction results:

Units: #141 @ 146,000 units off = 140 GAFfers did a better job than them, 21 GAFfers did worse than them
Points: #128 @ 80.25 pts. = 127 GAFfers did a better job than them, 34 GAFfers did worse than them


I'm looking forward to seeing how horribly wrong they are this time around.
Click to expand...

My prediction was nowhere near theirs, so that's either really good or really bad.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Aquamarine said:
Chartzzzzz's laughable predictions (under the guise of "sales numbers") are now up:


PS4 - 198,273
XOne - 183,251
3DS - 157,125
WiiU - 135,517
X360 - 76,502
PS3 - 39,758
PSV - 18,082
Wii - 15,693
PSP - 2,659

Last month's prediction results:

Units: #141 @ 146,000 units off = 140 GAFfers did a better job than them, 21 GAFfers did worse than them
Points: #128 @ 80.25 pts. = 127 GAFfers did a better job than them, 34 GAFfers did worse than them.
Click to expand...

Yeah their PS4 numbers always seem to be under tracked, and 3DS over tracked. Xbone and Wii U (and Vita I guess) could be close, but also way off as well. Sad part is that even on their own forums, they are near last place in terms of "predictions".
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Welfare said:
Yeah their PS4 numbers always seem to be under tracked, and 3DS over tracked. Xbone and Wii U (and Vita I guess) could be close, but also way off as well. Sad part is that even on their own forums, they are near last place in terms of "predictions".
Click to expand...
Please don't use this kind of (bolded) terminology for what they do. It really doesn't meet any reasonable standard of "tracking".
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
jvm said:
Please don't use this kind of (bolded) terminology for what they do. It really doesn't meet any reasonable standard of "tracking".
Click to expand...

Sorry, their predictions are off by a lot. Just seemed appropriate as they try passing the numbers off as reliable.
 
D

Dire

Member
Aquamarine said:
Chartzzzzz's laughable predictions (under the guise of "sales numbers") are now up:


PS4 - 198,273
XOne - 183,251
3DS - 157,125
WiiU - 135,517
X360 - 76,502
PS3 - 39,758
PSV - 18,082
Wii - 15,693
PSP - 2,659

Last time their "numberz" were off by quite a significant margin (the average GAFfer did much better than them).

Last month's prediction results:

Units: #141 @ 146,000 units off = 140 GAFfers did a better job than them, 21 GAFfers did worse than them
Points: #128 @ 80.25 pts. = 127 GAFfers did a better job than them, 34 GAFfers did worse than them


I'm looking forward to seeing how horribly wrong they are this time around.
Click to expand...

Wait... am I incorrect in thinking that June is a 5-week tracking period, or do VG have their head up their asses even more than usual? I suppose I might end up eating crow for this but that PS4 number just looks like about the dumbest thing I've ever seen for anybody who does like 5 minutes of research even if beyond that you're just making shit up.
 
P

Paganmoon

Member
[PS4] 180k
[XB1] 190k
[WIU] 90k
[3DS] 80k
[360] 50k
[PS3] 30k

My first real prediction. I'm going to be so wrong on this, hah!
 
G

goonergaz

Member
I'm surprised the general thought is PS4>XBO even after the 'price drop' which meant last month some folk held off buying.

Really going to be interesting to see the results...
 
H

hepburn3d

Member
goonergaz said:
I'm surprised the general thought is PS4>XBO even after the 'price drop' which meant last month some folk held off buying.

Really going to be interesting to see the results...
Click to expand...

I'm not so much. "some folk" would have to represent a huge number of people to over take Sony at the moment.

I think the thought is if you look at a range of variables you get a feel for a rough idea. My variables are amazon.com top sellers and twitter trends. Just on those my rough idea is a modest bump in sales but not enough to catch up with Sony.

I don't mind being wrong though, is part of the fun.

Like you say, the results will be interesting.
 
T

truth411

Member
Aquamarine said:
Chartzzzzz's laughable predictions (under the guise of "sales numbers") are now up:


PS4 - 198,273
XOne - 183,251
3DS - 157,125
WiiU - 135,517
X360 - 76,502
PS3 - 39,758
PSV - 18,082
Wii - 15,693
PSP - 2,659

Last time their "numberz" were off by quite a significant margin (the average GAFfer did much better than them).

Last month's prediction results:

Units: #141 @ 146,000 units off = 140 GAFfers did a better job than them, 21 GAFfers did worse than them
Points: #128 @ 80.25 pts. = 127 GAFfers did a better job than them, 34 GAFfers did worse than them


I'm looking forward to seeing how horribly wrong they are this time around.
Click to expand...

Yea I don't get it, isn't June a 5 week tracking period. Using simple math of taking Mays numbers 197k /4 weeks x 5 weeks = 246k if sales are consistent for the PS4.
 
T

TomShoe

Banned
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 130K
[WIU] 75K
[3DS] 120K
[360] 50K
[PS3] 40K
[PSV] 15K

At this point I just copy someone else's numbers and change them a little.

Thanks Kriken
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
I gotta ask...do a lot of people not know June NPD is a 5 week month or do they really think the PS4 sales inexplicably tanked? If it's the latter, could someone elaborate on the reasoning?
 
P

PoorChoices

Member
SDCowboy said:
I gotta ask...do a lot of people not know June NPD is a 5 week month or do they really think the PS4 sales inexplicably tanked? If it's the latter, could someone elaborate on the reasoning?
Click to expand...

I don't think it really matters to some people. Some pick random numbers, while some have a detailed system. I would, however, like to see the results of the random numbers group compared to the system group.

I'm one of the random number people.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
goonergaz said:
I'm surprised the general thought is PS4>XBO even after the 'price drop' which meant last month some folk held off buying.

Really going to be interesting to see the results...
Click to expand...
If we take the weekly average in April it would sell 150k in June and the sales seemingly lost in May are 38k making the total 188k. The PS4 on the other hand should do ~250k to match the weekly sales in April and May.

Paraphrasing Abdiel he saw PS4 still on top with similar sales to last month and XB1 above WiiU.

Edit: People don't make graphs of weekly sales and compare them to previous years? What is fun about random numbers? :p
 
S

spatenfloot

Member
PoorChoices said:
I don't think it really matters to some people. Some pick random numbers, while some have a detailed system. I would, however, like to see the results of the random numbers group compared to the system group.

I'm one of the random number people.
Click to expand...
I use monkeys and a dartboard.
 
P

plainr_

Member
[PS4] 171K
[XB1] 134K
[WIU] 82K
[3DS] 98K
[360] 46K
[PS3] 38K
[PSV] 15K

My first time participating in an NPD prediction thread. :p
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
plainr_ said:
[PS4] 171K
[XB1] 134K
[WIU] 82K
[3DS] 98K
[360] 46K
[PS3] 38K
[PSV] 15K

My first time participating in an NPD prediction thread. :p
Click to expand...

This is what I'm talking about. That would be a massive drop for the PS4 in a 5 week month. If you would, what's the reasoning?
 
O

Orthogonal

Member
[PS4] 248K
[XB1] 142K
[WIU] 82K
[3DS] 112K
[360] 52K
[PS3] 42K
[PSV] 15K

My first NPD prediction as well.

I think most systems are flat to slightly up on a week to week basis. Exception is Xbone with slight boost and Vita with large drop.
 
P

plainr_

Member
SDCowboy said:
This is what I'm talking about. That would be a massive drop for the PS4 in a 5 week month. If you would, what's the reasoning?
Click to expand...

Nothing. I just copy pasted someones post and adjusted it with some random numbers.

I don't even know how much PS4's were sold last month.
 
B

Brad Grenz

Member
goonergaz said:
I'm surprised the general thought is PS4>XBO even after the 'price drop' which meant last month some folk held off buying.

Really going to be interesting to see the results...
Click to expand...

Online retailers that show sales rankings have PS4 comfortably ahead of Xbox One in the month of June. Anyone can go to Amazon and see the PS4 like 40 places ahead of the top Xbox One SKU for the month. That is not dissimilar to the gap in May, suggesting PS4 will win the month easily, and that the price drop did not change the Xbox One sales trajectory very much, if at all.
 
J

jayu26

Member
Some of the numbers I'm seeing here are completely crazy. So, either my numbers are way off or gaf average is going to be really bad.
 
J

Jomjom

Banned
Lynn616 said:
Then the game division for Sony is in big trouble with shareholders then.
Click to expand...

MS business opportunities are MUCH much bigger than Sony's. Whereas Sony would be happy with Playstation making them a small profit, MS would not because their manpower and capital can go towards things that have a lot more potential. Sony does not have that.

This is why MS is more intolerant of meandering performance from the games division than Sony is. MS is after Apple and Google like growth and profits, Sony at the moment is just trying to stay out of the red.
 
I

IN&OUT

Banned
[PS4] 175k
[XB1] 195k
[3DS] 115k
[WIU] 95k
[360] 64k
[PS3] 44k
[PSV] 10k

I think xbone will outsell PS4 due to pricedrop, otherwise DAMN.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
jayu26 said:
Some of the numbers I'm seeing here are completely crazy. So, either my numbers are way off or gaf average is going to be really bad.
Click to expand...

I think the GAF average is going to be bad. Seems like some aren't realizing it was a 5 week month period.

I would assume that all of the current gen systems should be higher than last month.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I think the GAF average is going to be bad. Seems like some aren't realizing it was a 5 week month period.

I would assume that all of the current gen systems should be higher than last month.
Click to expand...

Yeah. I'm baffled at the GAFfers who are predicting PS4 below 200K.
 
M

Mass Effect

Member
goonergaz said:
I'm surprised the general thought is PS4>XBO even after the 'price drop' which meant last month some folk held off buying.

Really going to be interesting to see the results...
Click to expand...

Judging by the evidence we have and the trends we're seeing, it's just not looking like the Bone overtook the PS4 for June. And I can't see a price-cut (in June no less, with no desirable software too) giving the Xbone the ~250% increase it needs to overtake the PS4.

SDCowboy said:
I gotta ask...do a lot of people not know June NPD is a 5 week month or do they really think the PS4 sales inexplicably tanked? If it's the latter, could someone elaborate on the reasoning?
Click to expand...

My guess would be people don't know it's a 5 week month and others just randomly guessing numbers. Not everyone tries to make accurate predictions.
 
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