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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th

R

RE_Player

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I think the GAF average is going to be bad. Seems like some aren't realizing it was a 5 week month period.

I would assume that all of the current gen systems should be higher than last month.
Click to expand...
I'm guessing low because nothing of note came out for any system in June. Maybe the first slump for these consoles after riding high.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Cthulhu_Steev said:
How is that going to help to sell more xbones?
Click to expand...

I wasn't talking about the game being a system seller. I was talking about it not getting lost alongside the other popular shooters releasing this year.

And yeah, there's definitely people who are getting an Xbox One for the collection or people who recently bought one for it (& got the $400 SKU).

It's safe to assume that the game will do very well. Since some here think of the term "system seller" as a game that increases system sales for the month that it releases then Halo MMC should definitely be a system seller considering that it comes out in November and November console sales are usually always much higher than October (Black Friday/holiday season). Automatic system seller! (heh)
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
RE_Player said:
I'm guessing low because nothing of note came out for any system in June. Maybe the first slump for these consoles after riding high.
Click to expand...

Nothing of note came out...but there was still E3 this month. And E3 helps stimulate interest for the consoles.


According to precedent:

shinra-bansho said:
Code: 
360	PS3	WII	WIU
1.3		
1.3	1.2	1.1
1.2	[B][I][U]1.9[/U][/I][/B]	1.0
1.4	1.3	1.2
[B][I][U]2.3[/U][/I]	[I][U]2.0[/U][/I][/B]	1.3
[B][I][U]1.9[/U]	1.6[/I][/B]	1.2
[B][I]1.6[/I][/B]	1.5	1.3
1.2	1.3	1.5	1.3
Jun/May console multipliers.
Bold italics > 50% M/M increase.
Underlined, at/near/greater than 100% M/M increase.
Click to expand...

shinra-bansho said:
Why would one remove the top two and the bottom two? That's not how one defines outliers.

Normalised to number of weeks.
Code: 
360	PS3	WII	WIU
1.0			
1.0	1.0	0.9	
0.9	1.6	0.8	
1.1	1.0	1.0	
1.9	1.6	1.0	
1.5	1.2	0.9	
1.3	1.2	1.1
1.0	1.0	1.2	1.0
Click to expand...

When accounting for the 5 weeks, there tends to be either no change or a slight increase in weekly averages from May.

Consoles don't usually decline from May to June, whether adjusted or unadjusted.

So again, any PS4 prediction below 200K baffles me. I just don't understand it.
 
I

Isleofsancroy

Banned
People are asking will the Xbox One do well this month. Yes.

People are asking will the Xbox one outsell the PS4 this month. There are numerous factors here.

Price Cut and Halo Announcement, along with legs of other big games like Titanfall COULD do it. However, keep in mind that there are things going against it like reputation, Price in some areas, and retailers pushing for sales and over reporting PS4 success. Then on the PS4 side you got some new games out, some more superior on the system, and the promise of new features being added with updates, which may be all they really need.

People are asking Will the Xbox One U.S. LTD sales past the PS4's in this one month. Disney magic.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Isleofsancroy said:
People are asking will the Xbox One do well this month. Yes.

People are asking will the Xbox one outsell the PS4 this month. There are numerous factors here.

Price Cut and Halo Announcement, along with legs of other big games like Titanfall COULD do it. However, keep in mind that there are things going against it like reputation, Price in some areas, and retailers pushing for sales and over reporting PS4 success. Then on the PS4 side you got some new games out, some more superior on the system, and the promise of new features being added with updates, which may be all they really need.

People are asking Will the Xbox One U.S. LTD sales past the PS4's in this one month. Disney magic.
Click to expand...

Why would the legs of Titanfall be a factor when Xbox One sold a pathetic 77K last month? That wasn't even good enough for Microsoft to give their normal PR statement.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Isleofsancroy said:
People are asking Will the Xbox One U.S. LTD sales past the PS4's in this one month. Disney magic.
Click to expand...

Please quote anyone but you who said as much.

There's greater than a 600k difference between PS4 and XB1's LTD's. XB1 would have to therefore sell the same as PS4 plus 600,000 units. No one but you is saying that
 
I

Isleofsancroy

Banned
SwiftDeath said:
Please quote anyone but you who said as much.

There's greater than a 600k difference between PS4 and XB1's LTD's. XB1 would have to therefore sell the same as PS4 plus 600,000 units. No one but you is saying that
Click to expand...

I never said that, did you read the quote you replied t- no you didn't.
 
P

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
MrNyarlathotep said:
Wouldn't 'well' in its strongest territory be in the 400-500k range?
Click to expand...

400-500k in one month in June with no notable software and being its first June......those are some ridiculous predictions......delusional in fact.

Doing well in June bearing all things in mind would be 200-250k. 270-300k would be very well. 300k+ would be pretty exceptional.
 
X

x-Lundz-x

Member
Aquamarine said:
Doing "well" would be similar to Xbox or Xbox 360's early performances:

Xbox:
June 2002 - 263K
June 2003 - 166K

Xbox 360:
June 2006 - 277K
June 2007 - 198K
Click to expand...

I'm curious on your opinion here. At what level is MS in ultra panic mode if sales do not pick up with the price cut? Under 125k?
 
J

Jamix012

Member
Aquamarine said:
Doing "well" would be similar to Xbox or Xbox 360's early performances:

Xbox:
June 2002 - 263K
June 2003 - 166K

Xbox 360:
June 2006 - 277K
June 2007 - 198K
Click to expand...

Honestly, it's probably going to more closely follow the trajectory of the OG xbox (unless there is some sort of Kinect-esque miracle in it's mid-life) so I'd hope it'd be beating both...
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
MrNyarlathotep said:
I believe thats what its going to do, I just wouldn't consider a new SKU bump to fall in line with the OG Xbox sales figures to be doing particularly 'well'.
Click to expand...

Again, why?

The PS4 has been selling ~200K each month. Many people, including Sony, are quite pleased with the PS4's sales figures.

If Microsoft could match that 200K, that would be considered a success by both Microsoft and many people here.

The important thing to note here is consistency. It's not selling 200K in one month and dropping down to 70K in subsequent months that would be all that successful. It's about establishing a new baseline.
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
Mass Effect said:
My guess would be people don't know it's a 5 week month and others just randomly guessing numbers. Not everyone tries to make accurate predictions.
Click to expand...

What is the point of not trying to accurately predict the numbers? Whats the point of participating then? lol
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
Jallopy said:
[PS4] 250k
[XB1] 275k
[WIU] 95k
[360] 80k
[PS3] 50k
[3DS] 125k
Click to expand...

So you think the Xbone is going to see sales 4x the month before? Assuming the estimate of around 70k for the month prior is accurate, 275k the following would be off the charts crazy.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Jamix012 said:
Honestly, it's probably going to more closely follow the trajectory of the OG xbox (unless there is some sort of Kinect-esque miracle in it's mid-life) so I'd hope it'd be beating both...
Click to expand...

OG Xbox actually did quite well in the USA.

There are two problems with it:

1) OG Xbox died very quickly after the Xbox 360 came out in November 2005. It only had a 4 year active life. Compare that to Xbox 360's 8 year active life.

2) OG Xbox didn't do all that well outside of the USA. 14 million sold-through out of its 24 million shipment total was in USA sell-through alone.
 
M

MrNyarlathotep

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Again, why?

The PS4 has been selling ~200K each month. Many people, including Sony, are quite pleased with the PS4's sales figures.

If Microsoft could match that 200K, that would be considered a success by both Microsoft and many people here.

The important thing to note here is consistency. It's not selling 200K in one month and dropping down to 70K in subsequent months that would be all that successful. It's about establishing a new baseline.
Click to expand...

A new SKU bump is usually higher than the new baseline that follows (if at all), but I'm not sure MS would be happy with a 200k 5 week baseline, or consider that much of a successful ROI.
 
J

Jamix012

Member
Aquamarine said:
OG Xbox actually did quite well in the USA.

There are two problems with it:

1) OG Xbox died very quickly after the Xbox 360 came out in November 2005. It only had a 4 year active life. Compare that to Xbox 360's 8 year active life.

2) OG Xbox didn't do all that well outside of the USA. 14 million sold-through out of its 24 million shipment total was in USA sell-through alone.
Click to expand...

Hmm that's interesting, I forgot it had a 4 year lifespan. Do you happen to have the numbers for the 360's first 4 years?

Aquamarine said:
Again, why?

The PS4 has been selling ~200K each month. Many people, including Sony, are quite pleased with the PS4's sales figures.

If Microsoft could match that 200K, that would be considered a success by both Microsoft and many people here.

The important thing to note here is consistency. It's not selling 200K in one month and dropping down to 70K in subsequent months that would be all that successful. It's about establishing a new baseline.
Click to expand...

Well, I think you already know the answer. PS4 is much more successful worldwide, so scoring 200k~ a month is good. 200k a month is not that hot (but, truth be told, not awful either) if that's your biggest territory by a large margin.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Aquamarine said:
OG Xbox actually did quite well in the USA.

There are two problems with it:

1) OG Xbox died very quickly after the Xbox 360 came out in November 2005. It only had a 4 year active life. Compare that to Xbox 360's 8 year active life.

2) OG Xbox didn't do all that well outside of the USA. 14 million sold-through out of its 24 million shipment total was in USA sell-through alone.
Click to expand...

Huh so the original Xbox was even more US-centric than the 360 it would seem. Around 58% of it's WW LTD was in the US whereas I think the 360's is closer to 49.5%
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Guys.

Predictions are guesses and anybody is open to give his guesses in this thread for more unbelievable they seems.

So please, stop to criticize guys with guesses way different from your own guesses... it is fine to guess XB1 at 300k or 30k.

That's is the fun in prediction/guesses... if everybody uses the same range of numbers it will be boring :p

Just my honest opinion.
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
ethomaz said:
Guys.

Predictions are guesses and anybody is open to give his guesses in this thread for more unbelievable they seems.

So please, stop to criticize guys with guesses way different from your own guesses... it is fine to guess XB1 at 300k or 30k.

That's is the fun in prediction/guesses... if everybody uses the same range of numbers it will be boring :p

Just my honest opinion.
Click to expand...

Right, and a large part of the fun of these threads come from discussing the predictions. If someone is going to post interesting predictions, others are going to want to discuss it.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
SDCowboy said:
Right, and a large part of the fun of these threads come from discussing the predictions. If someone is going to post interesting predictions, others are going to want to discuss it.
Click to expand...
I agree ;) my comment was not about your post but others way before... I just find this a trend in this thread with people having different expectations.

Maybe my post was pointless too :(

Thursday will be fun no matter what.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Jamix012 said:
Hmm that's interesting, I forgot it had a 4 year lifespan. Do you happen to have the numbers for the 360's first 4 years?
Click to expand...

Xbox 360 sold approximately 18.5 million in the entire life of OG Xbox's 14 million.

Xbox 360 has now surpassed 41 million because Microsoft has extended its lifespan so significantly.


Jamix012 said:
Well, I think you already know the answer. PS4 is much more successful worldwide, so scoring 200k~ a month is good. 200k a month is not that hot (but, truth be told, not awful either) if that's your biggest territory by a large margin.
Click to expand...

MrNyarlathotep said:
A new SKU bump is usually higher than the new baseline that follows (if at all), but I'm not sure MS would be happy with a 200k 5 week baseline, or consider that much of a successful ROI.
Click to expand...

Well in this case, the first June precedent for the old Xbox systems is around 250K.

So yeah, the initial bump should be a tad higher than 200K if Microsoft wants to set up a new 200K baseline.

But Xbox 360 maintained a 200K baseline all throughout 2006 and 2007.


Here's a representative sample:

January 2006 - 249K
February 2006 - 161K
March 2006 - 192K
April 2006 - 295K


January 2007 - 294K
February 2007 - 228K
March 2007 - 199K
April 2007 - 174K


See what I mean about Microsoft being okay about a 200K baseline?

It used to dominate Xbox 360 in its early years...and Microsoft was satisfied with Xbox 360's performance.
 
R

RyanPierre

Member
Isleofsancroy said:
and retailers pushing for sales and over reporting PS4 success.
Click to expand...

What's this all about? The only thing I'd heard in terms of retailer PR recently was Gamestop talking about how Xbox Ones were "flying off the shelves" in June the day after the $399 SKU released, which many people were skeptical about.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Aquamarine said:
OG Xbox actually did quite well in the USA.

There are two problems with it:

1) OG Xbox died very quickly after the Xbox 360 came out in November 2005. It only had a 4 year active life. Compare that to Xbox 360's 8 year active life.

2) OG Xbox didn't do all that well outside of the USA. 14 million sold-through out of its 24 million shipment total was in USA sell-through alone.
Click to expand...

that's not that much higher than the Gamecube! :p
 
H

heidern

Junior Member
Aquamarine said:
Consoles don't usually decline from May to June, whether adjusted or unadjusted.

So again, any PS4 prediction below 200K baffles me. I just don't understand it.
Click to expand...

The PS4 weekly average declined in April from March. It held steady in May but that may have been because of a Watchdogs bump. If Watchdogs did mask a further decline that may be seen in the results of either June or July depending on what legs it has. The two weeks prior to Watchdogs may have been below 50K. For example, PS4 in May could have been something like:
50K 45K 40K 65K
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
Aquamarine said:
OG Xbox actually did quite well in the USA.

There are two problems with it:

1) OG Xbox died very quickly after the Xbox 360 came out in November 2005. It only had a 4 year active life. Compare that to Xbox 360's 8 year active life.

2) OG Xbox didn't do all that well outside of the USA. 14 million sold-through out of its 24 million shipment total was in USA sell-through alone.
Click to expand...

Speaking of this, I've always wondered what happens to the millions and millions of consoles that don't get sold once its gen is fully dead and over.
 
J

jakncoke

Banned
Isleofsancroy said:
People are asking will the Xbox One do well this month. Yes.

People are asking will the Xbox one outsell the PS4 this month. There are numerous factors here.

Price Cut and Halo Announcement, along with legs of other big games like Titanfall COULD do it. However, keep in mind that there are things going against it like reputation, Price in some areas, and retailers pushing for sales and over reporting PS4 success. Then on the PS4 side you got some new games out, some more superior on the system, and the promise of new features being added with updates, which may be all they really need.

People are asking Will the Xbox One U.S. LTD sales past the PS4's in this one month. Disney magic.
Click to expand...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=116958281&postcount=2934

What legs?
 
T

Ty4on

Member
SDCowboy said:
Speaking of this, I've always wondered what happens to the millions and millions of consoles that don't get sold once its gen is fully dead and over.
Click to expand...
If they have millions left in stock they've made a big mistake. Much of it is sold slowly for a low price like the Wii now. The Dreamcast sold a fair amount of its total sales for way below MSRP after it was discontinued.
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
Ty4on said:
If they have millions left in stock they've made a big mistake. Much of it is sold slowly for a low price like the Wii now. The Dreamcast sold a fair amount of its total sales for way below MSRP after it was discontinued.
Click to expand...

Ah, makes sense.
 
J

Jomjom

Banned
ethomaz said:
Guys.

Predictions are guesses and anybody is open to give his guesses in this thread for more unbelievable they seems.

So please, stop to criticize guys with guesses way different from your own guesses... it is fine to guess XB1 at 300k or 30k.

That's is the fun in prediction/guesses... if everybody uses the same range of numbers it will be boring :p

Just my honest opinion.
Click to expand...

[XB1] 900k
[PS4] 5

Discuss!
 
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