ChronotriggerJM
Member
Did the wii only sell 101 million?
Did the wii only sell 101 million?
By most reasonable estimates its something close to that yes.
NES: 61 million
SNES: 49 million (-12 million)
N64: 33 million (-16 million)
Gamecube: 22 million (-11 million)
Wii: 101 million (outlier)
Wii U: >15 million (-7 million or more)
277 million units sold worldwide LTD (est) in 6 generations
Gameboy: 119 million
GBA: 82 million
DS: 155 million (outlier)
3DS: >60 million
Playstation: 105 million
Playstation 2: 158 million
Playstation 3: 85+ million
Playstation 4: 18+ million atm (5 more years of shelf life)
366 million units sold worldwide LTD (est) in 4 generations and the PS3 isint done yet and the PS4 is just getting started. The Wii is long gone and the Wii U is stagnant.
Again the PS2's price dropped like a rock and was everywhere. If the PS3 was able to hit those prices much earlier (and didn't launch at 599.99) on it would have been up there over the 100 million range easily.
Xbox: 25 million
Xbox 360: 85 million
Xbox One: +/- 10 million
My point is that both Sony and MS don't have a base drop off like Nintendo has seen. Even if the PS3 didn't live up to PS1/PS2 level sales they sold 85 million consoles which gives them options (PSN+, Digital Revenue, royalties, etc.) Its a larger base to use.
Nintendo has shown continued decline over and over with the exception of the Wii/DS, both of which were released at the best possible time with the right gimmicks.
It doesn't matter if the overall market is shrinking or showing other signs of fluctuation. The numbers speak for themselves, and it is why (in my opinion) that Nintendo is doing QoL, Amiibos and Virtual console initiatives. They see the writing on the wall.
Wow, for some reason I thought it was much higher levels lol. That Mario Kart attach ratio!
I see a base dropoff for both Sony and likely Microsoft in the future. You can't call 1 number an outlier and excuse another number. Sales don't work like that.
Nintendo made far more money on the Wii and DS than Sony did with, well... everything else. The PS3 represents the worst thing Sony's gaming division has ever done financially. The numbers speak for themselves.
Playing a game of "woulda coulda shoulda" is non-productive. It was what it was, and it is what it is.
First fire whoever keeps making all these asinine backwards decisions when it comes to online infrastructure. Second, fire their PR department and hire an entirely new one. Third, no gimmicks.
First fire whoever keeps making all these asinine backwards decisions when it comes to online infrastructure. Second, fire their PR department and hire an entirely new one. Third, no gimmicks.
Again the PS2's price dropped like a rock and was everywhere. If the PS3 was able to hit those prices much earlier (and didn't launch at 599.99) on it would have been up there over the 100 million range easily.
Nintendo has shown continued decline over and over with the exception of the Wii/DS, both of which were released at the best possible time with the right gimmicks.
It doesn't matter if the overall market is shrinking or showing other signs of fluctuation. The numbers speak for themselves, and it is why (in my opinion) that Nintendo is doing QoL, Amiibos and Virtual console initiatives. They see the writing on the wall.
Look at Kinect 2.0 after it became an optional extra - very, very few games make use of it. Nintendo are struggling to get devs to develop for the GamePad even when it's the main controller bundled with all consoles - if it became optional, nothing.
If Nintendo want's to keep going with providing their own hardware, I think they need to push even harder on the gimmicks, and maybe blow minds. Sony and Microsoft have the market on lockdown regarding the "typical" console experience, they've built up the recognition, and I don't see Nintendo tapping into that ever again.
They should triple down on the "gimmicks", and headhunt indie developers like no companies ever done before. You want to push what a "gimmick" can do? Open it up to indies. Nintendo should become the exclusive / indie juggernaut.
The more gimmicks you have the more they cripple their first party devs and the quality of their games, which is their only selling point.
the further inclusion of the ds in this conversation is rather silly. if you were to look at hardware shipments for their handheld line, you would see it rising with the gb, falling in the mid-90s, picking up again in the late 90s with the gbc and pokemon, blowing up with the gba (beyond gbc levels), and truly exploding with ds sales. if we were to follow this logic you're employing, the 3ds is actually abnormal because it doesn't follow the trend of increasingly successful nintendo handhelds after the gb's initial decline in the mid-90s.
I imagine if Nintendo made the Wii part 2, and went back to motion controls, called it something else entirely, made the platform the easiest thing in the world to program on, and collected 0 royalties from third party, and created the console equivalent of the PC dev community priced at $200. The thing would sell absolute gangbusters, and 3rd party would want to push software to it because why not? Yeah you wouldn't get the bigger games, but probably all the PSN stuff, all the indies, and anything not looking to push hardware to the max (all the small studios and below).
Nintendo really just needs a massive audience to sell their games to. I personally think they would do incredibly well going third party, but if that's not an option, then just gun for exposure.
Zero royalties? That's basically the whole point of the console business.
Not for Nintendo. 3rd parties hated the Wii for whatever reason. Of all the profit Nintendo had with the Wii, what do you think the realistic percentage would be from 3rd party software? Nintendo made a killing off their own software, and it was only because they had such a large audience to broadcast to.
Nintendo's output on the Wii U is arguably the best it's ever been, and no one is there to buy it. I bet Nintendo would give up profits in royalties to have another 30 million Mario Kart.
3rd parties hated the Wii for whatever reason. Of all the profit Nintendo had with the Wii, what do you think the realistic percentage would be from 3rd party software? Nintendo made a killing off their own software, and it was only because they had such a large audience to broadcast to.
Its interesting to me that so many of you claim that you won't buy Nintendo's hypothetical next console if 3rd parties aren't on board. I'm wondering what exactly happens or changes for you in a scenario where they do have complete 3d party parity. Assuming that you currently have a non-nintendo console like a ps4 or xbone, do you cease buying 3rd party games on those platforms (and potentially their successors) in favor of buying them on Nintendo's platform? Or do you merely take satisfaction from the idea that a Nintendo console has decent 3rd party support and continue to treat it as a 1st party box?
I'm guessing that switching which platform you buy multiplats on is contingent on online infrastructure, where your friends are, DLC availability, technical parity and a myriad of other obstacles that Nintendo would have to overcome in order to get you to even consider buying Star Wars Battlefront 5 on their platform. Is your ps4/5 or xbone/xbtwo then relegated to a 1st party only box in this scenario? Or if you're the type of gamer who only buys/can afford one console, do you forgo Sony or Microsoft exclusives + multiplats in favor of Nintendo exclusives + multiplats?
I'm not trying shit on anyone's opinions or wishes, I'm genuinely curious as to what you would do if Nintendo succeeded with a "me-too" approach.
If Nintendo took the steps to gain third party support, which would mean drastically different hardware, marketing of said hardware etc, but was genuinely successful. I can just buy 1 fucking console and have 99% of everything I could possibly need.
Yes for Nintendo. There were tons of shovelware crap on the Wii that Nintendo earned handsome money on.
NES: 61 million
SNES: 49 million (-12 million)
N64: 33 million (-16 million)
Gamecube: 22 million (-11 million)
Wii: 101 million (outlier)
Wii U: >15 million (-7 million or more)
277 million units sold worldwide LTD (est) in 6 generations
Gameboy: 119 million
GBA: 82 million
DS: 155 million (outlier)
3DS: >60 million
Playstation: 105 million
Playstation 2: 158 million
Playstation 3: 85+ million
Playstation 4: 18+ million atm (5 more years of shelf life)
366 million units sold worldwide LTD (est) in 4 generations and the PS3 isint done yet and the PS4 is just getting started. The Wii is long gone and the Wii U is stagnant.
Again the PS2's price dropped like a rock and was everywhere. If the PS3 was able to hit those prices much earlier (and didn't launch at 599.99) on it would have been up there over the 100 million range easily.
Xbox: 25 million
Xbox 360: 85 million
Xbox One: +/- 10 million
My point is that both Sony and MS don't have a base drop off like Nintendo has seen. Even if the PS3 didn't live up to PS1/PS2 level sales they sold 85 million consoles which gives them options (PSN+, Digital Revenue, royalties, etc.) Its a larger base to use.
Nintendo has shown continued decline over and over with the exception of the Wii/DS, both of which were released at the best possible time with the right gimmicks.
It doesn't matter if the overall market is shrinking or showing other signs of fluctuation. The numbers speak for themselves, and it is why (in my opinion) that Nintendo is doing QoL, Amiibos and Virtual console initiatives. They see the writing on the wall.
Of the 900 million units of software sold on Wii, some gaffer calculated approximately 300-350 million units of it was Nintendo's 1st party software a while ago from their financial reports, iirc.
That's a lot of missing royalties you're proposing on a theoretically successful console.
So a 3 to 1 ratio of software sold. Of the 2/3'ds of that pie, what percentage of profit does Nintendo make out of that? Versus what they netted off 1st party? I mean yeah, obviously they're going to lose profit, but would it be worth it to have that exposure? That's what I'm asking.
perhaps. if the wii u was $200 and had third-party support from the start, maybe it could have outsold the ps4. what i'm saying is that it sounds like a nintendo platform will always do worse than its predecessor, or at least should, which that ignores reality. this isn't magic. it's a combination of right or wrong moves. the wii u doesn't get to sub-gc levels after the wii due to it being 'back to normal'. it's a series of bad moves one after another when the wii was a series of right moves one after another.
saying the same of sony being 'back to normal' after the ps3 is a disservice to all they did right to bring the ps4 to where it is. it's a series of right moves.
i agree that timing was pretty good. they probably could have released the same stuff around the time of the gc/gba and done really well too. the wii and ds might have been a little late and had the potential to do even better. having the right gimmicks is one thing, but it needs to be backed up by the right software too, which nintendo had, to best demonstrate those gimmicks to a wider audience.
the further inclusion of the ds in this conversation is rather silly. if you were to look at hardware shipments for their handheld line, you would see it rising with the gb, falling in the mid-90s, picking up again in the late 90s with the gbc and pokemon, blowing up with the gba (beyond gbc levels), and truly exploding with ds sales. if we were to follow this logic you're employing, the 3ds is actually abnormal because it doesn't follow the trend of increasingly successful nintendo handhelds after the gb's initial decline in the mid-90s.
it's a pretty good idea to diversify in general. they have a hardware division and they mostly put it to use making video game systems and revisions of said systems. the potential there is greater for more.
also the writing is on the wall for pretty much everyone. microsoft's initial push with the xbox one, sony's push towards a paywall subscription service and playstation now, plus all the third parties setting up their own store fronts and 'platforms' digitally is a sign that the times are changing. it's not isolated.
I'm sorry; why is DS an "outlier" while PS2 is not?
Your logic doesn't make any sense. Nintendo doesn't get anything by making a console with zero royalties. It's not going to make developers flock to their console. Publishers make decisions based on prospective sales, not royalty rates. Both MS and Sony charge royalties and it's not scaring anyone away.
Even if hypothetically every third party game came to Nintendo exclusively, if Nintendo isn't getting a cut, then what's the point? It's like selling the razor without the blades. Ok, so they would get a huge install base. So what? The average bro gamer isn't interested in Nintendo stuff so who cares.
If you want to say it's an outlier you can, but there just is not enough hardware trends to say otherwise.
Nintendo has a pattern showing, Sony doesn't atm, they would have to sell less than 85 million this gen and I very much doubt that happens. I think it'll be between the PS1 and PS2 personally. It depends on how fast they can drop the price and release in 3rd tier countries.
Considering the parts used and Cernys goals I'm pretty sure we will see 99.99 before its EOL.
What if the PS4 tapers out around or below the PS3's total? Then what?
99.99?
LOL
Personally I'm not sure myself how they can get Wii or even Nintendo 64 numbers again. What I do know is the price is a big factor. It is insane that it is difficult to find even a used Wii U for $200 (yes I know about the refurbished deals from time to time). If Nintendo some how had a system that was around $150 or less I know that would help. Of course that isn't all that is required as the Gamecube was $100, but it tough to sell a system that isn't that much cheaper than Sony or Microsoft platforms.
I also feel that combining their console and handheld ecosystems are a great idea. They have so many great titles that are always split up between two platforms. Imagine a system with as many killer apps as the 3DS and Wii U combined.
They've never really tried [to capture the 18-34 male demo] since the N64 era. The marketing of that console was perfect for the Western audience, from "mature" software to ads themselves. Goldeneye was the game of the generation for the older crowd interested in shooters, only for Nintendo to completely ignore them with the Gamecube and Xbox to swoop in and take them with Halo. Nintendo went as far as to advertise Conker's Bad Fur Day in Playboy. Crazy to think about today.
People forget how well the N64 fared against the Playstation in North America. It sold as many consoles as the SNES. As of March 31, 2001, N64 had sold about 20 million units in North America. At that point, Nintendo stopped supporting the console and started focusing on the Gamecube. Playstation was sitting at 31 million at the time. Keep in mind PS1 was released before N64, and had literally all of the third party support in the world. This resulted in software droughts that the PS1 simply didn't experience. While Nintendo's first party output was strong (Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Goldeneye) it couldn't compete with Sony's first party support (Gran Turismo, Crash Bandicoot) AND third party support (Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Resident Evil... the list goes on and on and on).
The idea that the PS1 dominated the N64 comes from worldwide sales (it KILLED N64 in Europe and Japan), and it continued to sell WELL into the life of the PS2, while the N64 died completely when the Gamecube released.
What's my point? The N64 sold well in North America on the strength of two things:
1. Compelling software
2. Strong marketing that appealed to ALL demographics
Their biggest problem? Cartridges. Yamauchi said fuck you to the third parties, so they said fuck you back and left Nintendo for Playstation and CDs. Could you imagine if Nintendo went with CDs and had Final Fantasy, Metal Gear and third party support they enjoyed from the SNES on the N64?
With the Gamecube, they hit 1 to an extent (lack of shooters hurt them, the Goldeneye/Perfect Dark audience moved away from Nintendo) and failed miserably with 2. Gamecube was the kiddy purple lunchbox with Mario's water gun and Celda. The Resident Evil games were too little too late; the damage was done. They had decent third party support for the first few years, but when you are lacking in 1 and 2, it's not enough. Doesn't help that PS2's third party support still completely shit on the Gamecube's. There was no Final Fantasy X, MGS2, Devil May Cry or Grand Theft Auto on the GC.
Wii was an anomaly. They hit 1 (Wii Sports/motion controls) and 2 (Wii Would Like To Play) so hard in such a different way that it hit the market like nothing anyone could have ever expected. They didn't need third party support for the Wii.
Now we reach Wii U, and we are once again at a Gamecube situation. I'd say they have even less compelling software and worse marketing than even the Gamecube, and the sales numbers show that. Obviously they tried to pull a Wii with 1 (the gamepad/Nintendoland?), but they didn't even try with the marketing. The first ads for the Wii U were those fucking dubstep ads. Compare that to the Wii Would Like to Play ads for the Wii, that sold everyone on the thing in 30 seconds. Terrible fucking job with the Wii U.
Why did I write this long post? What's my point? I very often see people argue that "Third parties coming to Nintendo wouldn't help anything, because the audience for Nintendo consoles aren't interested in those types of games." Well I point to the N64 and say "You're wrong. They just aren't trying hard enough, or at all." Here is the perfect Nintendo console:
1. The compelling first party software of the N64. They all had the signature Nintendo charm and quality, but also revolutionary titles like Mario 64 and Ocarina of Time that put the entire gaming world on notice. Unique titles that had them step out of their comfort zone, like Goldeneye, Perfect Dark and Pokemon Snap. New IPs that spawned their own successful franchises for years to come, like Mario Party and Super Smash Bros. All not only some of the best playing games in the world, but also some of the best looking.
2. Strong marketing that appealed to all demographics, like the N64. N64 wasn't marketed and presented as a kiddy console. As a result, it wasn't known as a kiddy console. A game that involved shooting people in the face was the third best selling game on the console, even beating out the revolutionary Ocarina of Time. It was not marketed exclusively to young kids and families, but instead a teenage and older audience. There were ads for the N64 during wrestling and in Playboy magazine. This gave the console an aura of "coolness" which sold younger audiences on it even though it wasn't being marketed DIRECTLY to them. None of this cringeworthy shit.
3. A console built for third party developers, like the PS4. This point is the one Nintendo never hit, and explicitly stopped trying to hit starting with the N64. With the PS4, Sony went to the third parties, asked them what they wanted from their new console. After gaining this information, they built the PS4, which is essentially the dream console for third parties. This is evidenced by the unanimous third party support for the thing. Nintendo obviously does not share this philosophy, instead building the console themselves, completely internally, and then presenting it to third parties. "So, what do you think? You'll make games for it, right?" That's not how it works today. Nintendo needs to look at the PS4, the current market leader, and do that. Many say a Nintendo console that just does what the competition does is boring, or wouldn't sell well in the marketplace. It needs to be "unique". PS4 isn't doing anything unique or fancy. These are basic, fundamental traits that all video game consoles should have. Then you innovate ON TOP of that foundation.
It's simple.
They can become number 1 by becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of Sony Computer Entertainment.
That will guarantee 1st place again
Indeed they are right moves but it just can't be ignored that as a whole they have been doing nothing but the wrong moves historically.
The trends you speak of are completely different than what Nintendo has had to do. What you're talking about is a rise in design costs and publishers trying to break into the mold with a Steam model. That's outside of the scope of what is happening. The third parties aren't even there to do that on a Nintendo platform.
Nintendo has never really seen a need to do things outside of gaming consoles, now they (imo) have no other choice in the matter.
If they fail with QoL and solely rely on Virtual Console/Amibos on their own platforms something is going to give. Like I mentioned earlier all three of those do not have to rely on Nintendo platforms. They can be moved to other consoles if need be.
I think the overall consensus is that even if they make all the right moves at this point it won't matter. Third parties aren't coming back, if they try it'll cost them. If they try for parity on network functions it would also cost them.
I don't see any gimmicks left to throw at a market with mass appeal outside of handheld+console gaming which also has the same flaws mentioned and a dwindling base.
I believe suicides would happen long before that lol
well that's what designers are supposed to do - find creative solutions to complex problems. i think it's incredibly sad to hold the belief that this is the end of the traditional market. i think there are many many ways for it to expand.
But think of the possibilities!
Sony could let Naughty Dog take on Mario.
We could end up with an apocalyptic mushroom Kingdom with Mario taking on a role similar to Joel and Luigi as Ellie.
It would be glorious.
God of Wario.
Uncharted: Toad's Fortune
Come on Iwata - Kaz said he'll throw in a free Bravia TV if you accept the deal.
If you want to say it's an outlier you can, but there just is not enough hardware trends to say otherwise.
Nintendo has a pattern showing, Sony doesn't atm, they would have to sell less than 85 million this gen and I very much doubt that happens. I think it'll be between the PS1 and PS2 personally. It depends on how fast they can drop the price and release in 3rd tier countries.
Considering the parts used and Cernys goals I'm pretty sure we will see 99.99 before its EOL.
Stop making weird consoles.
Eh, they lost the cream of that market share to the other beefier systems. I think they always will too until they get more third party stuff, and appeal more to the hardcore with more than their core franchises alone. Most of the franchises are ones that I was playing decades ago and while still good, they aren't new. The hardcore moved on during the Wii era and really haven't come back. The casual market has also moved on so they are a bit screwed. Their next machine better have some power or they just won't be able to compete again unless they stumble upon a new gimmick, which I sure hope they don't attempt.They're doing that right now.