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Media Create Sales: Week 21, 2015 (May 18 - May 24)

test_account

XP-39C²
A lot of people said Splatoon would sell the same as W101, so it's a little joke.
True, but i dont think that comment was referring to that. He/she mentioned that people are still trying to insist that Splatoon will underperform even when numbers have been posted. 200k-250k was also mentioned as a prediction, and that is way above what W101 sold. So i was just wondering because of that :)


We have someone stating it will only do 200-250K LTD in Japan when it's likely already at least done over 50% of that number in its first day on sale, ahead of the weekend, and apparently with a healthy re-stock.

So... compared to the reality of the numbers we have available, I guess?
That might be. Shooters are usually quite frontloaded, but i guess its anyone's guess how much leg Splatoon will have. Shall be very interesting to see :)
 

QaaQer

Member
Aren't shipment numbers usually determined by what stores want to order in advance of the release date? Or is there some sort of a cap that they put on production of the discs for launch week?
I mean, Nintendo would likely have to be the one to apologize for the shortage regardless, but... I'm not 100% up to speed on how this works.

All that said, looks like we'll have a near-complete sell-through rate.

Unlike most pubs, Nintendo doesn't take returns, so retailers are conservative when it comes to orders, and doubly so with a new IP. So lack of supply is Nintendo's fault as they refuse to work with retailers to ensure proper supply.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
sorry if this has been asked, what was the last new Nintendo home console ip that sold more than 120k in it's opening week?

I was replying Nintendo Land, but...NOPE! It sold 78k in its debut week.
So we have to go back to the Wii, with Wii Fit, I think.

02. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 261,226 / NEW
 

Terrell

Member
That might be. Shooters are usually quite frontloaded, but i guess its anyone's guess how much leg Splatoon will have. Shall be very interesting to see :)

Western games in general are front-loaded in Japan, as well, so singling out shooters in Japan as an example does no good, since there's few to none domestically made.

Nintendo games, as a general rule, always have at least a little bit of legs and take longer to drop on the charts than other games do, with Bayonetta and W101 being the most recent exceptions.

So now it's just a matter of wondering if we're talking baby squid tentacles or giant kraken ones. ;)
 

mclem

Member
That might be. Shooters are usually quite frontloaded, but i guess its anyone's guess how much leg Splatoon will have. Shall be very interesting to see :)

While shooters are generally frontloaded, I'd suggest that that's at least partially because they're generally a known quantity; word of mouth after launch isn't that likely to make non-purchasers reconsider.

I don't think that's necessarily the case with Splatoon; it's different enough that for many people it's not a known quantity, and I think the nature of the gameplay means it has a chance of making inroads with an audience that wouldn't necessarily gravitate to shooters. In other words, I think word of mouth has the potential to have more of an impact on Splatoon's sales than most. In both ways, mind you; while it's broadly positive right now, I think that detrimental word of mouth (if, perhaps, an exploit crops up halfway through the weekend) could cripple it.
 

QaaQer

Member
I was replying Nintendo Land, but...NOPE! It sold 78k in its debut week.
So we have to go back to the Wii, with Wii Fit, I think.

02. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 261,226 / NEW

thx. Lets hope at the end of the day, Splatoon sells 1/2 of Wii Fit. I'm only half joking, btw.

True, but i dont think that comment was referring to that. He/she mentioned that people are still trying to insist that Splatoon will underperform even when numbers have been posted. 200k-250k was also mentioned as a prediction, and that is way above what W101 sold. So i was just wondering because of that :)

Under/over performing is usually used wrt sales compared to marketing + production budgets. We will never have those last two numbers, so it's all just guessing but I'd be shocked if Iwata wasn't very pleased with these numbers.
 
The pessimist in me wants to tell you all to keep expectations in check.

Happy for them. Hopefully players are happy too. I'm still afraid people may get passed at the five maps at launch. I hope Nintendo gets the word out (possibly in game) about the additional maps being added in the immediate future.

Splatoon gives me the same feeling that Wonderful 101 did. A unique, colorful IP that has a sense of maturity. It's the type of game that has slowed to a trickle.

Also from the four testfire it's the first online game I seem to really enjoy playing.
 

L~A

Member
Got a question... Does the "150k" from the blog includes the shipment retailers got yesterday?

Honestly, I don't think the shortages are super grave or anything (not like it could've sold 500k FW or anything). But still, it's good to see there's some enthusiasm for the game in Japan.
 

QaaQer

Member
While shooters are generally frontloaded, I'd suggest that that's at least partially because they're generally a known quantity; word of mouth after launch isn't that likely to make non-purchasers reconsider.

I don't think that's necessarily the case with Splatoon; it's different enough that for many people it's not a known quantity, and I think the nature of the gameplay means it has a chance of making inroads with an audience that wouldn't necessarily gravitate to shooters. In other words, I think word of mouth has the potential to have more of an impact on Splatoon's sales than most. In both ways, mind you; while it's broadly positive right now, I think that detrimental word of mouth (if, perhaps, an exploit crops up halfway through the weekend) could cripple it.

agreed. The big thing Splatoon has going for it is that it was designed for a Japanese mindset. Western shooters are very alienating for many people, and it seems this one offers a real alternative.

Damn, I already regret may wii u sale.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Western games in general are front-loaded in Japan, as well, so singling out shooters in Japan as an example does no good.

Nintendo games, as a general rule, always have at least a little bit of legs and take longer to drop on the charts than other games do, with Bayonetta and W101 being the most recent exceptions.

So now it's just a matter of wondering if we're talking baby squid tentacles or giant kraken ones. ;)
While shooters are generally frontloaded, I'd suggest that that's at least partially because they're generally a known quantity; word of mouth after launch isn't that likely to make non-purchasers reconsider.

I don't think that's necessarily the case with Splatoon; it's different enough that for many people it's not a known quantity, and I think the nature of the gameplay means it has a chance of making inroads with an audience that wouldn't necessarily gravitate to shooters. In other words, I think word of mouth has the potential to have more of an impact on Splatoon's sales than most. In both ways, mind you; while it's broadly positive right now, I think that detrimental word of mouth (if, perhaps, an exploit crops up halfway through the weekend) could cripple it.
I agree. I dont think that it being western developed games matters that much in this case, but rather the genre itself. Since Splatoon isnt the "average" shooter though, as you mention, that is why i think its anyone's guess how much it will sell in the long run :)
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Got a question... Does the "150k" from the blog includes the shipment retailers got yesterday?

Honestly, I don't think the shortages are super grave or anything (not like it could've sold 500k FW or anything). But still, it's good to see there's some enthusiasm for the game in Japan.

all said and done, I think we'll see a 150k opening, with a 220k "CTD" (aka: chart-to-date), with a 250k LTD
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Under/over performing is usually used wrt sales compared to marketing + production budgets. We will never have those last two numbers, so it's all just guessing but I'd be shocked if Iwata wasn't very pleased with these numbers.
True. I was just wondering since i dont feel that 200k-250k is necesarily underperforming. I guess it depends on what number people are referring to when saying things like "fantastic".
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
If it sells close to 200k in the first weekend, there's no way the LTD will only be 200-250k. It definitely looks like it'll be a >300k title, probably closer to 400k at least.

With a >150k opening for a new Nintendo IP with mainstream appeal, 50% first week/LTD ratio will be the absolute worst scenario.
 
Splatoon could well be Nintendo's biggest surprise hit since Luigi's Mansion 2.

This sentence made my brain spin because it is still so bizarre that LM2 can actually be described as a hit. I really really thought that this would be one of the installments in the realm of "Nintendo games I love to death that the world doesn't give a damn about" alongside the corpses of EBA and excite truck.

Instead, it's a multi-million seller and I haven't actually played it yet.
 

Alrus

Member
Unlike most pubs, Nintendo doesn't take returns, so retailers are conservative when it comes to orders, and doubly so with a new IP. So lack of supply is Nintendo's fault as they refuse to work with retailers to ensure proper supply.

Afaik there's no return policy at all in Japan. What is shipped to retailers is effectively sold for the publisher and if a game is massively overshipped, retailers are on their own.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Got a question... Does the "150k" from the blog includes the shipment retailers got yesterday?

Honestly, I don't think the shortages are super grave or anything (not like it could've sold 500k FW or anything). But still, it's good to see there's some enthusiasm for the game in Japan.

The 150k shipment is supposed to be first day shipment, that means thursday 28th.

I already said that Yodobashi stores got a new shipment today friday, if we go by its website.

Also I've just been in Shinjuku and Ikebukuro Bic Camera and they have the game fully available Friday 29th 20:00 p.m. Japanese time. Since is still available I'm gonna assume they got a new shipment too.

I'm not seeing hard stock problems yet (Just in Yamada Denki).
 

Kanann

Member
CGE7u2RU0AAQkvk.jpg


ok, I give up

in HDD now
 

L~A

Member
The 150k shipment is supposed to be first day shipment, that means thursday 28th.

I already said that Yodobashi stores got a new shipment today friday, if we go by its website.

Also I've just been in Shinjuku and Ikebukuro Bic Camera and they have the game fully available Friday 29th 20:00 p.m. Japanese time. Since is still available I'm gonna assume they got a new shipment too.

I'm not seeing hard stock problems yet (Just in Yamada Denki).

Thanks for the answer, I get it now. As I suspected, it looks like shortages aren't that bad (yet?), which makes you wonder why Nintendo even apologised in the first place. Then again, since the next shipment won't be out until next week, I guess copies will become scarce during the week-end.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
IA/VT was delayed one month. Shocking, I know.

http://gematsu.com/2015/05/iavt-colorful-delayed-one-month-japan

I hope this at least means we will see Inklings joining the Nintendo cast.

On this note, I'm kind of surprised they didn't do any cross promotions.

Releasing an Inkling for free into Mario Kart (relatively little work) or selling a DLC Inkling in Smash (more work, so $$$ makes sense) - perhaps even giving it for free by pre-ordering Splatoon - seems like a missed opportunity.
 
I could also see them doing one of those tie-ins in conjunction with one of the announced Splatoon DLC releases, which could help give the title some legs.
 
Wow, i expected sub 100k for Splatoon first week, and Gaf are talking about 200k and sold out first week, thats Insane. This game could be the biggest surprise for the Wii U, nothing is even close if is truth.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
IA/VT was delayed one month. Shocking, I know.

http://gematsu.com/2015/05/iavt-colorful-delayed-one-month-japan



On this note, I'm kind of surprised they didn't do any cross promotions.

Releasing an Inkling for free into Mario Kart (relatively little work) or selling a DLC Inkling in Smash (more work, so $$$ makes sense) - perhaps even giving it for free by pre-ordering Splatoon - seems like a missed opportunity.


maybe they are seeing the other way around.
Develope, promote and sell Splatoon.
After that, release a DLC costume (unlocked by the Inkling amiibo) in MK8 and release a DLC Ink-ling character in Smash.
Doing this they could generate revenue with amiibos and DLC in both popular games (so a big install base), with small expenses.
The other way around, you were promoting through a huge install base (those two games) a still "expensive" new game.
 

mclem

Member
Releasing an Inkling for free into Mario Kart (relatively little work) or selling a DLC Inkling in Smash (more work, so $$$ makes sense) - perhaps even giving it for free by pre-ordering Splatoon - seems like a missed opportunity.

I think Inklings are probably a shoe-in for Smash at some point, now, but I'm not sure we'd see them as DLC for the current version, simply because I think you'd really want to capture the 'inking the floor for mobility' mechanic in their gameplay and I think that's something that might have to be implemented at a fairly low-level.
 

mclem

Member
Wow, i expected sub 100k for Splatoon first week, and Gaf are talking about 200k and sold out first week, thats Insane. This game could be the biggest surprise for the Wii U, nothing is even close if is truth.

If I recall the table of predictions, didn't everyone expect sub-100k? I thought the highest predictions were for something like 65k?
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
If I recall the table of predictions, didn't everyone expect sub-100k? I thought the highest predictions were for something like 65k?

Pikmin 3 debuted with 92k
DKTF debuted with 35k

I was looking for something in the middle, so I'm pleasantly surprised.
 
Releasing an Inkling for free into Mario Kart (relatively little work) or selling a DLC Inkling in Smash (more work, so $$$ makes sense) - perhaps even giving it for free by pre-ordering Splatoon - seems like a missed opportunity.

I still say we're going to see this closer to the holidays. Zelda leaves a gaping huge void, so it will be up to Smash and Splatoon to kind of pick up the slack.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
While not pictured (this chart lags behind a day, so it only peaks at #5), Granblue Fantasy just got to #3.

I thought this was an interesting example since the game has been slowly growing for over a year.

granblue3tnp5f.png
 

AniHawk

Member
While not pictured (this chart lags behind a day, so it only peaks at #5), Granblue Fantasy just got to #3.

I thought this was an interesting example since the game has been slowly growing for over a year.

granblue3tnp5f.png

honest question, but are we going to get weekly japanese app threads? i don't want to step on toes here but it seems like it's out of place in the old and busted dedicated hardware market sales thread...?
 
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