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Media Create Sales: Week 21, 2015 (May 18 - May 24)

Dec 20, 2013
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let us for a moment project that splatoon's success in these first couple of days in japan is demonstrative of the game will perform around the world. this would not only reward Nintendo's aggressive marketing campaign, making them likelier to usher in their other major releases with more pomp and circumstance, but it could very well make them more prone to create new high-profile IPs in the future, knowing they can rely on aggressive marketing to give the games a fighting chance.

I think it shows that Nintendo is shrewder from their experiences with W101, Bayonetta and S.T.E.A.M. They realized that they can't just throw new IP's into the wilderness with no hype and expect them to do gangbusters, so they finally caught on.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
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0
Similarly, how I determined whether Bravely Second was successful was based on relativism as opposed to the actual numbers. We have no idea what the development budget or promotional budget was, but knew the game had debuted a lot lower than Bravely Default, which was bad. We also knew that handheld games with similar sales volumes rarely ever saw sequels at Square Enix.

However, this wasn't a guarantee of meaning, and simply an educated guess based upon trends. The thing that ultimately solidified its lack of success was Asano saying he was immediately going to submit the plan for Bravely Third if the game was successful enough, and then shortly after release, saying they were trying to decide if it made more sense to try another sequel or to try an entirely new game instead.

Without this type of commentary, we could simply analyze the situation and makes predictions, and then wonder for years if we were right. Right now we still don't even know if the game was profitable, and this decision was made simply upon it not being profitable enough, or if it actively lost money, which would help inform future discussions much more. We also don't know what types of platforms the team might work on next instead, which would give us some more hints at the implications of not having enough success.

This is rather interesting but I wonder how SEGA determines "success" for them. Is it based on sustainability and comfortable profits, or is it based on strong profits and fast growth? They define:

  • Failure: =<240$k/month
  • Success: >=400$k/month
We could use this as a sort of baseline, look at where these titles rank on the grossing charts, and then compare other titles to it. Just looking at AppAnnie for Japan's grossing charts, you can see that well into the mid-100 ranks is still where you can currently find SEGA's 'successess' and, to some degree, presume that that region of grossing ranking is turning in over 400$k/month.

TerraBattle is pretty high, on this listing, actually.

I wonder what the upkeep for a game-as-a-service that is mobile has on the month to month basis. You don't have the same costs as, say, full game development but there's likely a lot of back-end costs to keep everything running well and smoothly, especially when you have many, many users.
 

Weskerlover

Member
Dec 13, 2011
145
0
0
The Hague, The Netherlands
http://jp.jnocnews.jp/news/show.aspx?id=54369

Itagaki gave an interview to People's Daily Overseas Edition Japan Monthly, and said some pretty funny things. To note, this is a Japanese edition of a China newspaper, so keep in mind that his comments are likely intended to be for readers who have an interest in China-centric news.

When asked about the future of Valhalla Studios, he said that they're currently committed to finishing Devil's Third on WiiU, but after it ships, they'll be developing mobile games. He goes on to talk about mobile gaming culture in China, and how it is a huge market which has a strong social culture. He hopes to tie-in with Chinese companies in future to take full advantage of the growing market there.

This is bad news =(
 

michaelius

Member
Jan 5, 2012
16,112
1,985
935
I think it shows that Nintendo is shrewder from their experiences with W101, Bayonetta and S.T.E.A.M. They realized that they can't just throw new IP's into the wilderness with no hype and expect them to do gangbusters, so they finally caught on.

They don't have anything else to promote with Wii U lineup being barren wasteland and with Zelda delayed into 2016.
 

duckroll

Member
Jun 7, 2004
114,734
4
0
39
I was thinking it'd get the "Miyamoto Project" push. They been drumming it up little by little, but maybe that will be a stronger Western push along with XenoX.

It doesn't feel like a big project to me, and I honestly still think it might not be a retail title. Could just be an episodic downloadable thing.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
It doesn't feel like a big project to me, and I honestly still think it might not be a retail title. Could just be an episodic downloadable thing.

Oh, I see what you meant. This is true, I don't know if it even will be retail. But if it is, I could see them push it with oomph.

That said, do we think we'll see Yoshi getting some promotional push? It comes out next month so there's time for a promotional run.

Was #FE this year for Japan or next?
Also Paper Mario WiiU if real. :p Obviously Terra Battle WiiU + Last Story Remastered.
 

kuroneko0509

Member
Oct 14, 2012
10,031
1
0
UK / Malaysia
Oh, I see what you meant. This is true, I don't know if it even will be retail. But if it is, I could see them push it with oomph.

That said, do we think we'll see Yoshi getting some promotional push? It comes out next month so there's time for a promotional run.

Was #FE this year for Japan or next?
Also Paper Mario WiiU if real. :p Obviously Terra Battle WiiU + Last Story Remastered.

winter 2015, so both this year or next year haha
 

duckroll

Member
Jun 7, 2004
114,734
4
0
39
#FE is supposed to be end of the year, but since it has no date yet it could easily be delayed. Anyway I expect it to sell around 100+k tops regardless of marketing. We've seen more than enough evidence that core-centric games like this don't really have a large audience on the WiiU.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
#FE is supposed to be end of the year, but since it has no date yet it could easily be delayed. Anyway I expect it to sell around 100+k tops regardless of marketing. We've seen more than enough evidence that core-centric games like this don't really have a large audience on the WiiU.

Build the library, and they will come!

We're going to need a lot of elbow grease.
Core-centric players don't seem to be on any console.
 
Build the library, and they will come!

We're going to need a lot of elbow grease.
Core-centric players don't seem to be on any console.
We've seen some comparatively notable numbers on PlayStation even if it's well below what we see for peak handheld titles.

This is a game that's going to struggle a lot with its platform. Maybe it can find a second chance with a port to their next handheld, assuming they decide to do such things.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
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0
They're definitely on the PS3.

I meant the modern ones. :p

This is a game that's going to struggle a lot with its platform. Maybe it can find a second chance with a port to their next handheld, assuming they decide to do such things.

Almost certain that they will, gives them an easy out on early library 'bulk' that can then be expanded with their aimed, centralized production for a single console.
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,193
20
535
We've seen some comparatively notable numbers on PlayStation even if it's well below what we see for peak handheld titles.

This is a game that's going to struggle a lot with its platform. Maybe it can find a second chance with a port to their next handheld, assuming they decide to do such things.

I think this game would do similar on any platform tbh, at 50k difference max (talking about japan obviously). The ones that'd like to play it would play it on any platform.
 

twothunder

Member
Jun 20, 2010
3,230
1
0
Splatoon on Amazon: "back-ordered, due in stock June 6 -- order now to reserve yours."

D:

It's fully available at Yodobashi though.

Really? I thought Amazon JP still had it.

The demand for the Splatoon Amiibos is pretty unusual for Japan, right? Wonder what changed to make them so desirable.

I believe Amiibo isn't that big in Japan compared to the west.
Still. For Splatoon. They are one of the first pieces of merch for the characters. Guess the outfits might help too.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
Star Fox never been a strong IP in Japan, less than Zelda, which is also weaker compared to western markets

Not saying it WAS a big brand, but a strong push and a preying on nostalgia for such a long-dormant franchise, can get you some strong returns and sales. See: Kickstarter over the last two months.

That said, looks like YWW is launching in mid-July for Japan. That will probably be in the direct tonight.
 

Terrell

Member
Apr 1, 2006
12,478
2
1,050
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Star Fox never been a strong IP in Japan, less than Zelda, which is also weaker compared to western markets

Perhaps they're looking to change its fortunes? I mean, if the last amazing Star Fox game was on N64, which was already a much bigger system sales-wise in North America than in Japan, it only makes sense that its popularity has been tied to the west. But the opportunity to change that is now.
 

Moor-Angol

Banned
Aug 26, 2005
4,503
2
0
46
Japan
retrogamesheaven.com
Not saying it WAS a big brand, but a strong push and a preying on nostalgia for such a long-dormant franchise, can get you some strong returns and sales. See: Kickstarter over the last two months.

That said, looks like YWW is launching in mid-July for Japan. That will probably be in the direct tonight.

sure, I expect a big coverage for DQ8, the Direct is for 3DS and Wii U summer relelases, probably we'll see some new games, previously unannounced

but I think that, talking about Star Fox, even with a strong marketing campaign, won't have a huge success, in the last 20 years it sold 500k just one time...
 

Terrell

Member
Apr 1, 2006
12,478
2
1,050
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sure, I expect a big coverage for DQ8, the Direct is for 3DS and Wii U summer relelases, probably we'll see some new games, previously unannounced

but I think that, talking about Star Fox, even with a strong marketing campaign, won't have a huge success, in the last 20 years it sold 500k just one time...

Without the sales results from the SNES version, that assertion is potentially invalid.
 

Regulus Tera

Romanes Eunt Domus
Mar 2, 2008
50,651
0
0
twitter.com
Wow. I really hope Splatoon's reception sends a message to Nintendo that consumers want more BIG new IPs from the company. I love their smaller games like Boxboy, Pushmo, Code Name STEAM, etc. but Splatoon is something bigger and it has been great to see Nintendo treat it as such. I'm so happy to see Japan react positively to the game.
It seems like Nintendo rarely cares about new IPs unless they come from EAD themselves, and they are the studios locked in a cycle of endless sequelitis. Just look at how long Aonuma has been stuck making Zelda games.
 

Nibel

Member
Oct 18, 2011
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If Splatoon is any indication, it seems like people are way more interested in new experiences than another Starfox game.

And the SNES version.. I don't know man, isn't that game 20+ year old? Not sure if those old sales will have any impact on a current-gen Starfox.
 

hongcha

Member
Aug 7, 2011
2,898
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0
And the SNES version.. I don't know man, isn't that game 20+ year old? Not sure if those old sales will have any impact on a current-gen Starfox.

Of course the sales of the Super Famicom Star Fox won't have any impact on a Wii U Star Fox 22+ years later. If anything will be relevant, it will be the sales of the most recent Star Fox releases.
 

Regulus Tera

Romanes Eunt Domus
Mar 2, 2008
50,651
0
0
twitter.com
I just don't understand the rhetoric here with ailing console sales in Japan. There's literally nothing funny about Bravely Second trailing its debut. There is nothing endearing about losing traditional Japanese games in their entirety to an industry that leeches off of the mentally disabled or fiscally irresponsible.
No, I'm sorry, it is pretty funny that Square is getting punished by a really dumb game design decision they made in the previous installment of this series.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
685
Spain
the fact is that I said "in the last 20 years"...

even Zelda reached a million copies sold in 1998, but after that never had similar results on home; and as I said Zelda is a more strong brand than Star Fox

267. [NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks <ADV> (Nintendo) {2009.12.23} (¥4.800) - 25.542 / 310.998 <44,40%> (1.011.371)
271. [WII] The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess <ADV> (Nintendo) {2006.12.02} (¥6.800) - 25.164 / 625.501 <109,27%> (1.197.961)
363. [NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass <ADV> (Nintendo) {2007.06.23} (¥4.800) - 19.141 / 639.246 <70,37%> (1.547.680)

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=874622

I know I'm cheating, that's new games + used games :p
 

Terrell

Member
Apr 1, 2006
12,478
2
1,050
Vancouver, BC, Canada
the fact is that I said "in the last 20 years"...

even Zelda reached a million copies sold in 1998, but after that never had similar results on home; and as I said Zelda is a more strong brand than Star Fox

If there's a hook that interests the market and it's marketed properly, it can still sell well. Fact is, Star Fox 64 sold 500,000 copies in Japan, where there were only 5.5 million hardware units sold LTD throughout the console's entire lifespan, so it sold to over 9% of all console owners. For some perspective, that's a third of the total sales of Super Mario 64.

Give them a great and well-marketed Star Fox game again (which, if we're honest, hasn't happened since the N64) and things could be different. I mean, I liked Assault well enough, but I can't exactly call it a good Star Fox game and it certainly didn't get any marketing push. And the less said about Command, the better.

Based on current LTD for Wii U, it would only need to sell 212,500 units approximately to hit the same 9% attach rate as Star Fox 64. Anything above that would be considered a rousing success, comparatively speaking.

In the end, it will all depend on what Nintendo brings to the table and how aggressively they want to tell people about it. Just like it is with every game, as Splatoon has so far clearly proven.
 

The_lascar

Member
Apr 8, 2005
868
0
1,400
33
France
www.gamescharts.fr
Famitsu sales numbers vs worldwide shipment, on N64

Kirby 64: 50%
Mario Party 3: 44%
Hey You, Pikachu: 41%
Mario Party 2: 36%
Mario Tennis 64: 36%
Mario Golf 64: 32%
Paper Mario: 31%
Yoshi's Story: 30%

Pokémon Stadium 2: 29%
Super Smash Bros.: 29%
Mario Party: 28%
Zelda Majora's Mask: 18%
Mario Kart 64: 17%
Donkey Kong 64: 16%
Zelda OOT: 15%
Super Mario 64: 14%
Star Fox 64: 14%
Pokémon Snap: 14%
Pokémon Stadium: 13%
Diddy Kong Racing: 13%
Banjo-Tooie: 13%
Pilotwings 64: 12%
Banjo-Kazooie: 11%

F-Zero X: 9%
Wave Race 64: 5%
Perfect Dark: 4%
1080° Snowboarding: 1%
Goldeneye: <1%

Starfox:
64: 14%
Adventures: 14%

Starfox Assault did less than one million worldwide, so at least 20% of his sales are from Japan. Same for Command, at least 9%.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
May 23, 2013
5,915
0
0
twitter.com
Famitsu sales numbers vs worldwide shipment, on N64

Kirby 64: 50%
Mario Party 3: 44%
Hey You, Pikachu: 41%
Mario Party 2: 36%
Mario Tennis 64: 36%
Mario Golf 64: 32%
Paper Mario: 31%
Yoshi's Story: 30%

Pokémon Stadium 2: 29%
Super Smash Bros.: 29%
Mario Party: 28%
Zelda Majora's Mask: 18%
Mario Kart 64: 17%
Donkey Kong 64: 16%
Zelda OOT: 15%
Super Mario 64: 14%
Star Fox 64: 14%
Pokémon Snap: 14%
Pokémon Stadium: 13%
Diddy Kong Racing: 13%
Banjo-Tooie: 13%
Pilotwings 64: 12%
Banjo-Kazooie: 11%

F-Zero X: 9%
Wave Race 64: 5%
Perfect Dark: 4%
1080° Snowboarding: 1%
Goldeneye: <1%

Starfox:
64: 14%
Adventures: 14%

Starfox Assault did less than one million worldwide, so at least 20% of his sales are from Japan. Same for Command, at least 9%.

Wow, thanks for this excellent post. Interesting to see how big the NA market (and worldwide market) has always been for Nintendo.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
May 23, 2013
5,915
0
0
twitter.com
More on topic, I think its fine to keep the digital discussion for mobile in here. Its, for now, very hard to really track appropriately and we have to play detective to figure much of anything out unless devs outright state their earnings. The reporting of them is a whole different beast and I think a thread separate just for them will die off to quickly due to low traffic.

The six to ten of us that lead any sort of discussion, speculation, or interest aren't going to keep a singular thread afloat indefinitely just as Zhuge and a few others can't keep NPD afloat indefinitely without console banter to keep the threads and questions fueled.

Ya know, I actually work in the Mobile Telecommunications industry in the UK and get access to a lot of reports. I'll see if there is some data I can post here regarding the growth in Mobile gaming as well as stats on Mobile & Smartphone penetration worldwide/in Japan.

Obviously there will be some stuff I can't post. But If I can I'll post it in this thread or post it in a new thread like I did with this one- http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=992393

I'll see how much data I can find.
 

Alrus

Member
Apr 4, 2010
9,787
0
595
Belgium
So we now have 3 MH spin-offs coming to the 3DS, wonder which one will be the biggest seller (I'm going to go with MHX).
 

Darius

Banned
Nov 22, 2013
942
0
0
Just like that 3ds got several promising games announcements, there was no doubt prior to that, but this cements 3DSs dominant position in the dedicated videogame market in Japan even further.
 

Orgen

Member
Aug 4, 2005
2,174
0
1,125
Wow, thanks for this excellent post. Interesting to see how big the NA market (and worldwide market) has always been for Nintendo.

Yep, thanks for the post lascar! But that shipment number for Mario Party 3... holy molly, did it sell that well in Japan or it did sell horribly in the rest of the world? Ö
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
4
0
So we now have 3 MH spin-offs coming to the 3DS, wonder which one will be the biggest seller (I'm going to go with MHX).

I think it might actually be MH Stories that will sell mos but I think all will do really well.

Isn't it a port of the PSP games? The first one did okay and afaik the second one underperformed. I'm not sure it's going to be that huge.

Well the 3DS has the Animal Crossing fanbase to sell to.
 

Kresnik258

Member
Jan 25, 2014
9,210
0
0
So we now have 3 MH spin-offs coming to the 3DS, wonder which one will be the biggest seller (I'm going to go with MHX).

I'd have thought X will do best because it most resembles a traditional Monster Hunter game.

Isn't it a port of the PSP games? The first one did okay and afaik the second one underperformed. I'm not sure it's going to be that huge.

And yes, it is, but I'd imagine there's a larger amount of audience matching for this game on 3DS than there was on PSP. Just depends how many already bought it.

I'm most interested to see how Animal Crossing is going to sell tbh. New Leaf has performed incredibly well, and I know it's not a sequel but it is another AC game on 3DS hitting the same audience so I'm expecting some pretty good results.
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
MHX
MH Stories
MH Airoo
DQ8
Fire Emblem If
SRW BX
Doubutsu no Mori Happy House Design( Retail too????^_^)
Chibi Robo
Rhythm Heaven+

Boy, 3DS is going to have a good time.^_^
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
May 23, 2013
5,915
0
0
twitter.com
Yep, thanks for the post lascar! But that shipment number for Mario Party 3... holy molly, did it sell that well in Japan or it did sell horribly in the rest of the world? Ö

Well, according to Famitsu, Mario Party 3 sold 850k. According to Lascar that was 44% of total shipments which means total of ~1932k were shipped worldwide. I know for a fact that Mario Party 3 sold less in the USA than it did in Japan (around 200k difference) so it just looks like EU sales were low, which would make sense.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
30
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
I have to say this: I...think that, for what we've seen so far, Animal Crossing is overpriced. I was expecting more like 2,000 Yen (no taxes), not 4,000 Yen (no taxes). Also surprised to see it seems a major Summer release, between bundles with peripheral, New 3DS XL special edition and New 3DS covers. But maybe they'll explain more about it in the next weeks and it'll become clearer its appeal, even at 4,000 Yen.
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,193
20
535
So we now have 3 MH spin-offs coming to the 3DS, wonder which one will be the biggest seller (I'm going to go with MHX).

X for me as well.
But like Oregano said, all will perform well (to very well). Good franchise management from Capcom this time.
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
4
0
(Mobile discussion stuff)

Getting back to this(tried to respond on my tablet last night but kept getting error messages): For sure we only have a very small part of the image for dedicated systems but have an even smaller part for mobile titles. That doesn't mean it doesn't merit discussion, it just makes it more difficult.

I'm sure the comparison has been made but it's very similar to PAL charts we get and as you can see there is less discussion in those threads.
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
I have to say this: I...think that, for what we've seen so far, Animal Crossing is overpriced. I was expecting more like 2,000 Yen (no taxes), not 4,000 Yen (no taxes). Also surprised to see it seems a major Summer release, between bundles with peripheral, New 3DS XL special edition and New 3DS covers. But maybe they'll explain more about it in the next weeks and it'll become clearer its appeal, even at 4,000 Yen.

But the 4k Yen come with the NFC Adapter right? Or i am tripping here? If it comes with the adapter, i can see why it is priced more expensive.^_^
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
30
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Also, remember t he latest Capcom fiscal year results? When they announced their forecast for the "title-related to Mh"? At this point, I believe they weren't talking about Stories.

@casiopao: It's 5,000 Yen with the base.
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
Also, remember t he latest Capcom fiscal year results? When they announced their forecast for the "title-related to Mh"? At this point, I believe they weren't talking about Stories.

@casiopao: It's 5,000 Yen with the base.

Ohhh thats quite expensive.T_T Well i hope it can do well there. I feel 3k for base game and 4k with adapter should be a great price point but lets see how Ninty will do for this game here.^_^


MHX is going to sold 2.5 million easily there though.^_^