Media Create Sales: Week 19, 2015 (May 4 - May 10)

Jul 29, 2010
4,242
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655
The YTD numbers for software and hardware are completely dire compared to basically every year in the past decade so prepare for some looooow numbers with that lineup.
So... the pick me ups for this year probably are all in the summer then?

Yokai Watch Busters, Fire Emblem If, DQ8 3DS, & Rhythm Heaven?
 
So... the pick me ups for this year probably are all in the summer then?

Yokai Watch Busters, Fire Emblem If, DQ8 3DS, & Rhythm Heaven?
So sticking to titles with ~180-200K+ debuts, here was last Summer (through end of August for our purposes):
Week 22 - Mario Kart 8
Week 23 - PersonaQ
Week 26 - Freedom Wars
Week 28 - Yokai Watch 2

This was on top of having a lot of other debuts, and before we even get to competing with that, we have to make up a 2.4 million software gap and 500K hardware gap already.
 
Sep 2, 2014
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So sticking to titles with ~180-200K+ debuts, here was last Summer (through end of August for our purposes):
Week 22 - Mario Kart 8
Week 23 - PersonaQ
Week 26 - Freedom Wars
Week 28 - Yokai Watch 2

This was on top of having a lot of other debuts, and before we even get to competing with that, we have to make up a 2.4 million software gap and 500K hardware gap already.
One thing, I wonder if we shouldn't do, is to look at Software per platform instead of just aggragate. Might be an interesting thing to see where (obviously the WiiU) things are lagging.
 
One thing, I wonder if we shouldn't do, is to look at Software per platform instead of just aggragate. Might be an interesting thing to see where (obviously the WiiU) things are lagging.
Would a graph for just the 3DS look pretty much the same?
Yeah, I'm not sure it makes that much of a difference overall.

The 3DS and PS3 are the only platforms capable of moving enough software to matter at the 2.4 million unit gap level and the PS3 has had to go cross-gen with the Vita and PS4 to maintain any kind of overall impact.

The big picture to me is that things are sputtering out overall, and given the types of games that have been getting made that last few years, it's not like it's the loss of casual DS/Wii users causing this.

During the peak of the Wii/DS, Iwata always liked to talk about the virtuous cycle, where 1.) games would be made and 2.) people would buy them and enjoy them and want more games and 3.) more companies would make games (or up their output) to serve the new demand and 4.) thus the cycle repeats.

Here it's the opposite, known as a death spiral.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
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That graph is quite something Niro, thanks, give us a perspective on the industry (shift).

That 7.4 million 3DS HW is most certainly not occuring especially with Japan's underperformance and recent NPD numbers.
 
That graph is quite something Niro, thanks, give us a perspective on the industry (shift).

That 7.4 million 3DS HW is most certainly not occuring especially with Japan's underperformance and recent NPD numbers.
Oh yes, in case people missed it, since we discussed it in here a few times, the New 3DS effect ran out after like two months in the US:

Monthly 3DS vs PSP (and DS) comparison:
Code:
            3DS 2015  PSP 2009  NDS 2009
    January       74       172       510
    February     395       199       588
    March        265       168       563
    April        116       116       1040
    May                    100       633
    June                   163       766
    July                   123       539
    August                 140       552
    September              190       524
    October                174       457
    November               293       1700
    December               654       3310
    Through 
    April        850       655       2701

    Total                 2492      11182
This month 3DS dropped back to PSPs pace and close to last years numbers (106k).
 
Sep 2, 2014
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That graph is quite something Niro, thanks, give us a perspective on the industry (shift).

That 7.4 million 3DS HW is most certainly not occuring especially with Japan's underperformance and recent NPD numbers.
Oh yes, in case people missed it, since we discussed it in here a few times, the New 3DS effect ran out after like two months in the US:
The end is nigh.

More seriously, I wonder if Youkai won't do some good in the west when it releases with the show. That said, its fairly obvious that Nintendo's expectations will take some serious magic to achieve. If we use the PSP as a metric and take current projection for 2015 to be close to but a few hundred thousand below 2014, then we can put NA/JPN for 3DS to:

2.8 + 2.5 = 5.3

What does the 3DS usually pull in EU?
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
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It's quite something.

I think Nintendo's Operating Forecast are manageable if their mobile platform indeed takes off, and if costs reductions are maintained throughout (mostly Marketing); however, the hardware forecasts are overly optimistic. There is most certainly going to be a change in Q3 as in every fiscal year.

I'm maintaining my shares on the Nikkei but still, Q1 & Q2 will be loss leaders as they've always been these last FY, but alot rides on their mobile success, too much even.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
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More seriously, I wonder if Youkai won't do some good in the west when it releases with the show. That said, its fairly obvious that Nintendo's expectations will take some serious magic to achieve. If we use the PSP as a metric and take current projection for 2015 to be close to but a few hundred thousand below 2014, then we can put NA/JPN for 3DS to:

2.8 + 2.5 = 5.3

What does the 3DS usually pull in EU?
Is there evidence that any previously released software has done much to bolster a late-life console's hardware sales? How did Smash boost 3DS sales (or slow the decline of them)? Xenoblade 3DS? Wouldn't we assume that Yokai Watch is appealing to similar demographics as already successful software like Pokemon, and so would do well even if it doesn't drive hardware sales?
 
Mar 13, 2013
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Is there evidence that any previously released software has done much to bolster a late-life console's hardware sales? How did Smash boost 3DS sales (or slow the decline of them)? Xenoblade 3DS? Wouldn't we assume that Yokai Watch is appealing to similar demographics as already successful software like Pokemon, and so would do well even if it doesn't drive hardware sales?
Well obviously Pokémon is the ultimate example but it's also probably the only one and it was twenty years ago,,,
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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Actually, Nintendo forecasted 7,6 millions, and we should remember we're talking about shipments (example: they could sell 7,1 millions, but then ship additional 500,000 units WW, which would be a good amount of overshipment compared to the overall sales, the one that doesn't put you in a situation where you can't ship more units after that while giving stores units for upcoming demand).

Honestly, it's 1.4 millions lower than most recent FY, and 1.13 millions lower than the actual result...I'd say it depends. I don't think it's impossible, honestly. If April NPD represents what the demand will be for the rest of the FY in the West (not that different from FY2014, but 10-20k per month higher/on par with last year), then it would help. Without new hardware being launched, Japan will surely go down in the FY. Still, all of this depends on what they'll release this Holiday.

There's a specific part of the latest Q&A that hit me

Question: I would like to clarify the current situation of Nintendo 3DS. It was mentioned in today's presentation that there is still room for growth regarding Nintendo 3DS in the overseas markets. However, the company forecasts a unit sales decline for both hardware and software for this fiscal year. The forecast for R&D expenses does not show a large increase. Are there plans to shift development resources or are they simply conservative figures? What is the background to the company's Nintendo 3DS sales unit forecast?

Answer: First, I believe there is a great difference between Japan and overseas markets in terms of how much actual demand has been created based on the market potential for Nintendo 3DS. In Japan, Nintendo DS hardware sold more than 30 million units. Compared to this, some may point out that 19 million units are not enough. On the other hand, historically, there are not many gaming systems that have sold 19 million units four years after their launch. Also, considering the current Japanese market situation, it can be said that actual demand has been created considerably based on the market potential. However, there is still room for actual demand to be created from the female demographic. During the Nintendo DS and Wii era, the gender ratio of Nintendo consumers was 1:1. For Nintendo 3DS, this ratio has shifted toward the male side to some extent. In comparison to the gaming platforms of other companies, we have more female consumers, but I do think that this area is slightly weak considering the strength Nintendo has and also considering the trend following the gaming population expansion approach in which games can be accepted regardless of age or gender. Therefore, the challenge for the Japanese market is to be able to appeal to female consumers with ages ranging from young children to women over a certain age and even seniors. I believe this is what will determine the future growth.

As for the overseas markets, from the market potential point of view, the number of Nintendo 3DS units distributed is still small. In addition, in the overseas video game markets, consumer attention tends to focus on home consoles and we have not yet been able to overcome this hurdle. By observing the market reactions after the launch of New Nintendo 3DS, we started to see that with good software and hardware offerings we will almost be able to overcome that hurdle. This year, we intend to open that door. On the other hand, if we were to set forecasts assuming that this door is open, we could provide more aggressive figures, but Nintendo has not been able to meet its earnings forecasts a number of times during the past three periods that resulted in operating losses. Therefore, releasing a forecast resembling a target effort was not in my mind. Based on figures collected by sales teams from each sales region on "attainable targets," the forecasts we prepared are realistic targets for which we should aim. Therefore, please consider our sales units forecast to be based on not what we believe is the maximum market potential but rather sufficiently attainable targets.
So, summing a bit

1) Iwata believes that there's untapped potential to expand the userbase in Japan towards female audience, from children to even seniors.
2) In the West, 3DS has room for growth, according to Iwata. And, in his opinion, New 3DS's initial reception shows that there is indeed that room with "good software and hardware offerings".
3) "Therefore, please consider our sales units forecast to be based on not what we believe is the maximum market potential but rather sufficiently attainable targets"

So, for females in Japan, Style Savvy 3 just released, and I suppose Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer is another title that (in their intention) should try to appeal more to the female audience. That one will be interesting to follow, starting from how it'll be sold (it could perfectly be a F2P where the "IAP"s are the cards...what if it's preinstalled in New 3DSes with no additional price, since it's F2P?). Still, I don't know if they can hit their target, but I'm wondering what do they have as upcoming first party titles that make them think that 7,6 millions is not just the maximum result possible, but something that shouldn't be that hard to reach? This means that there is more than what we're seeing right now, probably quite a bit more, even for the West (considering what said about the growth). I mean, let's look at the current first party lineup...the only first party upcoming title after Fire Emblem in Japan is...yep, Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer. And it's a Summer release in Japan, unlike US/Europe (where it's Fall). So, right now, Nintendo has literally nothing for the end of the year in Japan. Which sounds quite strange.

Since these forecasts are (in their own opinion) conservative, I wonder what upcoming titles / initiatives (in their own opinion, again) will help the console to reach forecasts considered "attainable", not the maximum potential possible, since they missed the mark in the past few years (quite hard till 2013, on a lower level in 2014). If they say that those forecasts are not a maximum for them, it means that there are things coming that, they believe, will help them reach those results. In the same way the past year had an higher forecast than what shown by actual sales WW considered "conservative", thus not a maximum, meaning that they had things that made them believe those results could have been achievable and reasonable. Yep, in the end they had to review 3DS's predictions again, but they had something that, in their mind, would have helped in reaching those (New 3DS and Pokémon). The discussion, then, should be: What do they have this time to make them think that 7,6 millions in this FY are possible?
 
Aug 25, 2013
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Nintendo forecasts have almost always aimed too high lately, they should take a page from Sony and just put low forecasts so they don't have to constantly revise them downward

edit: regarding Japan software sales, even if the summer makes up part of the gap there's Pokemon/MH4U/YW2.5/Smash 4 later from last year
 
Sep 2, 2014
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Nintendo forecasts have almost always aimed too high lately, they should take a page from Sony and just put low forecasts so they don't have to constantly revise them downward

edit: regarding Japan software sales, even if the summer makes up part of the gap there's Pokemon/MH4U/YW2.5/Smash 4 later from last year
Shoot for the stars, man. Shoot for the stars!

Even if you miss, you'll still land on the moon... or burn up in the sun.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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Actually, I mean, let's look at the current first party lineup...the only first party upcoming title after Fire Emblem in Japan is...yep, Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer. And it's a Summer release in Japan, unlike US/Europe (where it's Fall). So, right now, Nintendo has literally nothing for the end of the year in Japan. Which sounds quite strange.
Nice post Mpl. Btw, you forgot Rhythm Heaven + for 3DS in Japan at least.

Wait what the heck happened at comgnet o_O?

[WiiU] Splatoon - 65pt (+13) on a Sunday? (Hoping it's not a typo?)


Edit: Whoops, thanks Moor.
 
Aug 26, 2005
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retrogamesheaven.com
Nice post Mpl. Btw, you forgot Rhythm Heaven + for 3DS in Japan at least.

Wait what the heck happened at comgnet o_O?

[WiiU] Splatoon - 65pt (+13) on a Sunday? (Hoping it's not a typo?)


Tsutaya weekly ranking:
1, Puzzles & Dragons: Super Mario Edition
2, Style Savvy 3
3. Minecraft; Playstation Edition (Vita)
4. Bravely Second
5. Xenoblade Chronicles X
6. Dying Light (PS4)
7. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (PS3)
8. DQX V3 (Wii)
9. Yokai Watch 2: Shinuchi
10. Sword Art Online: Lost Song
11. Yakuza 0 (PS3)
12. Pro Spirits Baseball 2015
13. Smash Bros 3DS
14. DQX v3 (Wii U)
15. Resident Evil Revelations 2 (PS3)
16. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (PSV)
17. Mario Party 10
18. Tropico 5 (PS4)
19. Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth
20. Card Buddy-Fight (3DS)

sorry for breaking your excitement, but the Tsutaya chart you posted is the old one (week ending on May 10)
the new chart comes around 10:00 in Japan (so actually less than 2 hours) ;)
 
Jan 25, 2012
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Nice post Mpl. Btw, you forgot Rhythm Heaven + for 3DS in Japan at least.

Wait what the heck happened at comgnet o_O?

[WiiU] Splatoon - 65pt (+13) on a Sunday? (Hoping it's not a typo?)


Tsutaya weekly ranking:
1, Puzzles & Dragons: Super Mario Edition
2, Style Savvy 3
3. Minecraft; Playstation Edition (Vita)
4. Bravely Second
5. Xenoblade Chronicles X
6. Dying Light (PS4)
7. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (PS3)
8. DQX V3 (Wii)
9. Yokai Watch 2: Shinuchi
10. Sword Art Online: Lost Song
11. Yakuza 0 (PS3)
12. Pro Spirits Baseball 2015
13. Smash Bros 3DS
14. DQX v3 (Wii U)
15. Resident Evil Revelations 2 (PS3)
16. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (PSV)
17. Mario Party 10
18. Tropico 5 (PS4)
19. Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth
20. Card Buddy-Fight (3DS)
If Splatoon does well I wonder if it will have an effect on Nintendo's future marketing efforts.
 
Mar 9, 2012
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Nice post Mpl. Btw, you forgot Rhythm Heaven + for 3DS in Japan at least.

Wait what the heck happened at comgnet o_O?

[WiiU] Splatoon - 65pt (+13) on a Sunday? (Hoping it's not a typo?)
When COMGnet read my comment that I didn't take them as a reference for the market, they wanted to fix that, and they adjusted their pre-orders to the reality of Japan

I told you that Spatoon will be ok in Japan. Marketing is there, interest too

:)
 
Oct 5, 2013
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By Media Create, Week 19 hardware and software YTDs:

2010: 3,242,184 / 21,411,899
2011: 3,196,727 / 17,111,000
2012: 3,135,717 / 16,930,000
2013: 3,048,871 / 17,347,000
2014: 2,507,319 / 15,106,000
2015: 1,998,057 / 12,731,000





Isn't starting the graph in the middle of the previous gen a bit misleading? It's not really comparing like with like.

Graphs are fine, but it doesn't show what you says it does as it's not starting in 2006. For all I know including older years could make it look worse, but currently all it shows is a tapering off from the mid to end of a generation and that the sales with a lower install base haven't yet caught up to the heights of the last. It's all a matter of interpretation.
 
Aug 30, 2012
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Been mentioned at least once in another thread but this really is one of those rare times when you can't fault Nintendo for their marketing efforts. Its great to know that it seems to be paying off and I hope to see Nintendo continue aggressive marketing pushes with future efforts.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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Iwata says a lot of things.

There isn't some massive as yet untapped market of women just waiting for Style Savvy to get a dedicated handheld console. That's what Kim Kardashian: Hollywood is for.

Their forecasts have been overly optimistic for years.
 
Mar 9, 2012
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Tsutaya's Ranking Week 20 2015

01./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster <Final Fantasy X Final Fantasy X-2> <RPG> (Square Enix)
02./01. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons: Super Mario Bros. Edition <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment)
03./03. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition (Mojang AB)
04./04. [3DS] Bravely Second: End Layer <RPG> (Square Enix)
05./02. [3DS] Style Savvy 3: Kira Kira Code <ETC> (Nintendo)
06./06. [PS4] Dying Light <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan)
07./05. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X <RPG> (Nintendo)
08./07. [PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (Bandai Namco Games)
09./09. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5)
10./10. [PSV] Sword Art Online: Lost Song (Bandai Namco Games)
11./12. [PS3] Pro Baseball Spirits 2015 (Konami)
12./08. [WII] Dragon Quest X: Inishie no Ryuu no Denshou Online <RPG> (Square Enix)
13./19. [PSV] Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth (Bandai Namco Games)
14./16. [PSV] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (Bandai Namco Games)
15./18. [PS4] Tropico 5 <SLG> (Square Enix)
16./15. [PS3] Resident Evil: Revelations 2 (Capcom)
17./00. [PS4] Borderlands: The Handsome Collection <Borderlands 2 Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel!> <RPG> (Take-Two Interactive Japan)
18./25. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D <RPG> (Nintendo)
19./11. [PS3] Yakuza 0 (Sega)
20./22. [PSV] Pro Baseball Spirits 2015 (Konami)
20./17. [WIU] Mario Party 10 <ETC> (Nintendo)
 
Isn't starting the graph in the middle of the previous gen a bit misleading? It's not really comparing like with like.

Graphs are fine, but it doesn't show what you says it does as it's not starting in 2006. For all I know including older years could make it look worse, but currently all it shows is a tapering off from the mid to end of a generation and that the sales with a lower install base haven't yet caught up to the heights of the last. It's all a matter of interpretation.
Correct, it does look worse:



famitsu.com/news/201501/06069057.html

The reason I chose what I listed was two fold though:

1.) That's the year this generation starts with the 3ds.

2.) Going back through the threads we don't actually record this data in the OP further back.

More generally however, given the Vita and 3DS are winding down, the Xbox is moribund, and the Wii U isn't far behind, I don't expect things to get better anytime soon.
 
Aug 25, 2013
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Isn't starting the graph in the middle of the previous gen a bit misleading? It's not really comparing like with like.

Graphs are fine, but it doesn't show what you says it does as it's not starting in 2006. For all I know including older years could make it look worse, but currently all it shows is a tapering off from the mid to end of a generation and that the sales with a lower install base haven't yet caught up to the heights of the last. It's all a matter of interpretation.
but this gen started with the 3DS

;)
 
Sep 2, 2014
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Correct, it does look worse.
What happens, now, when we add in the million+ "free" download games (like Shuffle) on the 3DS? Would this software count or not?

I realize this is more a point of retail but with ever growing digital, I wonder how the picture actually looks like once you add in everything that is, at the end of the day, playing for the end-users attention: the great zero sum game.
 
Apr 4, 2010
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How did Dragon Age: Inquisition do on comgnet? Would be a decent way to evaluate The Witcher 3's potential.

I don't know if I don't understand more this general Splatoon excitement or the fact the comgnet didn't count until it started pushing up Splatoon preorders :D
Heh, people have used comgnet to evaluate trends for a while now, if it's used reasonably you can compare games of the same genre to kind of get a faint idea how a new release is going to do.

Splatoon excitment comes from the game being in a genre Nintendo hasn't really pushed much before (too bad it's rife with dumb Nintendo-ism when it comes to online games) and the fact that they're actually giving it a decent marketing instead of throwing it out there like so many of their new IPs. So I guess people want it to do well for those reasons?
 
Jun 8, 2004
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It's quite something.

I think Nintendo's Operating Forecast are manageable if their mobile platform indeed takes off, and if costs reductions are maintained throughout (mostly Marketing); however, the hardware forecasts are overly optimistic. There is most certainly going to be a change in Q3 as in every fiscal year.

I'm maintaining my shares on the Nikkei but still, Q1 & Q2 will be loss leaders as they've always been these last FY, but alot rides on their mobile success, too much even.
I think Splatoon has break out potential. They seem to have a lot riding on Mario Maker as a holiday title, which is scary.
 
What happens, now, when we add in the million+ "free" download games (like Shuffle) on the 3DS? Would this software count or not?

I realize this is more a point of retail but with ever growing digital, I wonder how the picture actually looks like once you add in everything that is, at the end of the day, playing for the end-users attention: the great zero sum game.
It's the same. That's the revenue chart.
 
Jun 26, 2006
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In a Dream
Oh yes, in case people missed it, since we discussed it in here a few times, the New 3DS effect ran out after like two months in the US:
I don't know if that is the case. The line is still up YOY, and without the N3DS the line would definitely be down YOY.

I expect the same will occur world wide, which has already happened in Japan. The N3DS prevented the system from drastic declines and basically it will flat-line for a few months.
 
Mar 9, 2012
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I don't know if I don't understand more this general Splatoon excitement or the fact the comgnet didn't count until it started pushing up Splatoon preorders :D
I think it's more the otherwise. Now that Comgnet started to push Splatoon, some people are realizing how will debut.

In my case, I did my Splatoon prediction the weekend 9-10th May in a spanish Forum, when the TV commercials, train and stations adverts and game stores promotions started.

I said there that Splatoon is being way more marketed in Japan than Xenoblade X, and its debut should be higher and over 100k.

I didn't need to wait until comgnet showed +13 pre-orders to say that. :)
 
Aug 25, 2013
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No, but I think that's virtually impossible for a new franchise. I think it will do about as well as possible for a new franchise, and it should outsell Pikmin 3 (which is sort of a shame because that game is awesome).
It's quite something.

I think Nintendo's Operating Forecast are manageable if their mobile platform indeed takes off, and if costs reductions are maintained throughout (mostly Marketing); however, the hardware forecasts are overly optimistic. There is most certainly going to be a change in Q3 as in every fiscal year.

I'm maintaining my shares on the Nikkei but still, Q1 & Q2 will be loss leaders as they've always been these last FY, but alot rides on their mobile success, too much even.
not the point of discussion here

also what are we even defining as a breakout hit, imo selling Pikmin 3 levels (do we even know this game's LTD?) would be nowhere near a breakout hit
 
Jun 26, 2006
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In a Dream
Iwata says a lot of things.

There isn't some massive as yet untapped market of women just waiting for Style Savvy to get a dedicated handheld console. That's what Kim Kardashian: Hollywood is for.

Their forecasts have been overly optimistic for years.
But didn't the DS prove this though. Not saying they can bring that audience back, but rather that there is a potential audience.
not the point of discussion here

also what are we even defining as a breakout hit, imo selling Pikmin 3 levels (do we even know this game's LTD?) would be nowhere near a breakout hit
Well what would be considered a breakout hit (sales level) for this generation?

Uh the closet thing I can think of is Destiny (being a new IP and a shooter) for comparison, and it did ok.
 
Jun 12, 2012
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But didn't the DS prove this though. Not saying they can bring that audience back, but rather that there is a potential audience.


Well what would be considered a breakout hit (sales level) for this generation?

Uh the closet thing I can think of is Destiny (being a new IP and a shooter) for comparison, and it did ok.
Destiny only did ok? I thought it was by far one of the best selling games in its year. Did we ever get numbers though? Watch Dogs can be called one too, doing over 10 million.

A breakout hit on the Wii U is pretty much impossible. Splatoon doing 2 million WW would be a surprise and those numbers aren't even significant in any real way.
 
Jun 26, 2006
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In a Dream
Destiny only did ok? I thought it was by far one of the best selling games in its year. Did we ever get numbers though? Watch Dogs can be called one too, doing over 10 million.

A breakout hit on the Wii U is pretty much impossible. Splatoon doing 2 million WW would be a surprise and those numbers aren't even significant in any real way.
Well I'm specifically talking about Japan. Of course WW those games did amazing.