Media Create Sales: Week 19, 2015 (May 4 - May 10)

[hiska-kun]

A few examples of the Splatoon posters that you can find in every main station in Japan

 

[unapersson]

but this gen started with the 3DS

I always forget about handhelds ;-)

 

[casiopao]

A few examples of the Splatoon posters that you can find in every main station in Japan

Mrgrgr did i see love live poster next to splatoon there lol.

 

[unapersson]

Correct, it does look worse:

famitsu.com/news/201501/06069057.html

The reason I chose what I listed was two fold though:

1.) That's the year this generation starts with the 3ds.

2.) Going back through the threads we don't actually record this data in the OP further back.

More generally however, given the Vita and 3DS are winding down, the Xbox is moribund, and the Wii U isn't far behind, I don't expect things to get better anytime soon.

So are consoles or handhelds collapsing more quickly, or are they both dropping at a similar rate?

 

[Chris1964]

YSO predictions

Week 21, 2015 (May 18 - May 24)

[PS4] The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt < 50k
___

Everything else < 15k

 

[hiska-kun]

YSO predictions

Week 21, 2015 (May 18 - May 24)

[PS4] The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt < 50k
___

Everything else < 15k

Weeks 20 and 21 will set a new low record in Japan.

 

[Moor-Angol]

btw is it just me, or is One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (on PS3) having decent legs for a Warriors game?

No, it's not you, the game is selling well and in the long period.
Tie ratio is actually 58,07%

But there are also other games showing some legs, and they have been released in the same day OPPW3 was released, the (in)famous March 26 (famous cause a lot of games were released and infamous cause a lot of them bombed)

Pro Baseball Spirits 2015 was also released on March 36 and both versions are still holding the chart (Famitsu numbers as usual), and they have a good tie ratio (61,52% PS3, 59,13% PSV, the latter is performing better than last year and actually it's the best result for the franchise on PSV)

Sword Art Online Lost Song, Vita version, despite a higher tie-ratio (72,69%) after one month and a half has not left the chart yet

Lego City Undercover (3DS) thanks to the GW re-entered the chart and it has one of the lowest tie-ratio : 29,80%

Last title I want to mention is Assassination Classroom, tie-ratio 36,23% which could have been more less if it hadn't stock problems after it's release


Of course titles for Nintendo platforms are common to have long legs (as I pointed out last week, iirc), so that bunch of games for PS3 and PSV mentioned above are really doing good


Top 20 (week 19)

 

[Eolz]

As big as some of those titles sörine listed. It's doing ok on the COMG charts (not always reliable I know).

comgnet

splatoon - 52pt
Witcher 3 - 51pt

100k debut confirmed for W3

Oh, didn't remember it being that high, my bad. Weird.

Iwata says a lot of things.

There isn't some massive as yet untapped market of women just waiting for Style Savvy to get a dedicated handheld console. That's what Kim Kardashian: Hollywood is for.

Their forecasts have been overly optimistic for years.

Do they even play that game in Japan?
But yeah, as said in previous posts, the Ds proved there was an audience.
Picking them out of other platforms and/or attracting new players is not necessarily impossible.

 

[Sage00]

Oh, didn't remember it being that high, my bad. Weird.



Do they even play that game in Japan?
But yeah, as said in previous posts, the Ds proved there was an audience.
Picking them out of other platforms and/or attracting new players is not necessarily impossible.

The mobile juggernaut was still in its infancy during the DS era. Now it's the king and it's never giving up its crown to something that costs tens of thousands of yen just to access.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Nintendo's FY forecasts are global.

Anyway, saying the DS proves there's a receptive untapped female market for the 3DS is about as valid and meaningful as saying disposable cameras showed there's an untapped budget dedicated camera market for Kodak. Or I should open a video rental store because that sure worked for Blockbuster.
Until it didn't.

 

[Eolz]

Never said Mobile won't be king anymore.
Just that userbases can coexist and switch between both from time to time. That's Nintendo's mobile plan, and people already play on several platforms.
The trick is just how to attract those specific userbases, and if they will succeed. I think they can get some.

Edit since I didn't see above post:
Again, maybe it wasn't clear, but it's not that the ds proves there is an untapped female audience, it proves that it can attract one.
Nintendo isn't stupid, they have various specific IPs for that, are trying F2P, and their new "membership" and link on mobile might help achieve part of that.
Not "stealing" another audience, but merging it. Not really clear, but they don't want those people to stop playing on mobile, but to also play on 3DS. I think it's not an impossible goal.

 

[sörine]

Well I'm specifically talking about Japan. Of course WW those games did amazing.

Yokai Watch. All the consoles and Vita with their sub-N64 userbases can't really support a true breakout hit in Japan. Sorry Minecraft.

 

[test_account]

Tsutaya's Ranking Week 20 2015

I'm surprised that Project Steam isnt even in the Top 20, and kinda surprised that Borderlands 2 charted that low, eventhough it is an old game in itself.

Yokai Watch. All the consoles and Vita with their sub-N64 userbases can't really support a true breakout hit in Japan. Sorry Minecraft.

Minecraft is on PS3 as well.

 

[sörine]

Minecraft is on PS3 as well.

PS3 was last generation though. Last gen we had four platforms selling over 10 million, this gen we're only getting one.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Edit since I didn't see above post:
Again, maybe it wasn't clear, but it's not that the ds proves there is an untapped female audience, it proves that it can attract one.
Nintendo isn't stupid, they have various specific IPs for that, are trying F2P, and their new "membership" and link on mobile might help achieve part of that.
Not "stealing" another audience, but merging it. Not really clear, but they don't want those people to stop playing on mobile, but to also play on 3DS. I think it's not an impossible goal.

Under dramatically different market conditions, the DS managed to attract female consumer segments to buy a dedicated handheld device. It means very little in the current competitive environment.

Similarly, in that same investor answer, the idea that Western markets have room for growth ignores modern reality.

It's a product in decline. And the forecasts do not seem conservative. Iwata is simply rationalising those overoptimistic forecasts.

As for the general idea of leading people towards complementing their mobile gaming with traditional games, sure it's not impossible. Just as getting consumers en masse to buy digital cameras, or rent physical videos or buy books at Borders is not technically impossible. It's just highly improbable to the point that it's not particularly worth contemplating.

The proposed behaviour is that people, or in this instance women, who currently have no want or need of a dedicated device, who currently gain interactive entertainment through vehicles they already have that outperforms those devices on dimensions of value they care for while being essentially free, will go out and purchase at considerable cost said dedicated devices.

It's a niche product category now, it will be an increasingly niche product category going forward as substitution continues.

 

[LOCK]

Nintendo's FY forecasts are global.

Anyway, saying the DS proves there's a receptive untapped female market for the 3DS is about as valid and meaningful as saying disposable cameras showed there's an untapped budget dedicated camera market for Kodak. Or I should open a video rental store because that sure worked for Blockbuster.
Until it didn't.

Except Nintendo specifically showed how their female user base expanded in the DS era. It proved that females can make up an equal market compared to men. Just because of consumer migration doesn't mean they shouldn't attempt to get that segment back. There is an untapped market until proven otherwise. I'm not saying they will be successful, but they should try.

And technically camera and video rental businesses evolved. It's not that those old business practices didn't work, they failed to adapt. Which applies to Nintendo, and I feel they are in an adaptive phase.

 

[duckroll]

I think his point is - is there an untapped female audience Nintendo is missing out on, or is there a tapped female audience who are simply somewhere else. Untapped suggests under-servered or unserved. I don't think that's the case for gaming. I think Nintendo just lost that audience.

 

[Kanann]

isn't it easier about female with phone?

 

[LOCK]

The proposed behaviour is that people, or in this instance women, who currently have no want or need of a dedicated device, who currently gain interactive entertainment through vehicles they already have that outperforms those devices on dimensions of value they care for while being essentially free, will go out and purchase at considerable cost said dedicated devices.

It's a niche product category now, it will be an increasingly niche product category going forward as substitution continues.

I think his point is - is there an untapped female audience Nintendo is missing out on, or is there a tapped female audience who are simply somewhere else. Untapped suggests under-servered or unserved. I don't think that's the case for gaming. I think Nintendo just lost that audience.

I like this discussion.

This here leads to a bigger question I think is important in analysis,

What are the differences in female vs male audiences?

I have no idea. Of course women like different genres at varying rates, but saying that feels sexist.

 

[test_account]

PS3 was last generation though. Last gen we had four platforms selling over 10 million, this gen we're only getting one.

I see what you mean. I wonder how Minecraft would have sold if there wasnt a PS3 and PS4 version available in Japan.

 

[Nirolak]

In the upcoming showdown between Monster Hunter Explore and Monster Gear, Sega is off to a pretty good start:

 

[Mpl90]

In the upcoming showdown between Monster Hunter Explore and Monster Gear, Sega is off to a pretty good start:

Oh, I remember it was going to start its service in May, but didn't know it already started! This week, I should provide one of my analysis about Hortensia Saga (next thread). Monster Gear will be the next, then.

 

[hiska-kun]

Our favorite blogger says:

- Splatoon's shipment is already higher than Xenoblade X

[WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥8.316) - 85.586 / NEW <72,01%> [Units Shipped => 118.853]

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

Oh, I remember it was going to start its service in May, but didn't know it already started! This week, I should provide one of my analysis about Hortensia Saga (next thread). Monster Gear will be the next, then.

I played a little of it over the weekend and asides from the aesthetic I could see how they attempted to ape the feel of Monster Hunter, but combat seemed way too simplistic to be worth putting extended time into.

 

[BlowoverKing]

Just realized something.

| PSPgo | 175.964 |
| PSVTV | 163.058 |

Looks like it might

Spoiler

crawl

pass the PSP go. Also are there never deals on the Vita TV in Japan like the US where retailers basically give the thing away for free? You almost never see it's sales spike for a week in Japan.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Our favorite blogger says:

- Splatoon's shipment is already higher than Xenoblade X

[WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥8.316) - 85.586 / NEW <72,01%> [Units Shipped => 118.853]

So does this indicate preorders or something and may grow?

Also Splatoon up another 4 preorders to hit 69.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Our favorite blogger says:

- Splatoon's shipment is already higher than Xenoblade X

[WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥8.316) - 85.586 / NEW <72,01%> [Units Shipped => 118.853]

ouch, I would get it digitally though but ouch at that shipment and still they did not sellout lol OUCH

 

[random25]

Our favorite blogger says:

- Splatoon's shipment is already higher than Xenoblade X

[WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥8.316) - 85.586 / NEW <72,01%> [Units Shipped => 118.853]

Really interesting to see how Splatoon will fare in the Japanese market. Looks like the perception on Splatoon changed since the marketing rolled out in the last few weeks.

 

[sörine]

I see what you mean. I wonder how Minecraft would have sold if there wasnt a PS3 and PS4 version available in Japan.

I think the better question is how much would Minecraft sell if there were a 3DS version available in Japan?

 

[hiska-kun]

So does this indicate preorders or something and may grow?

The blogger suggests that final FW shipment could double at this rate

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Really interesting to see how Splatoon will fare in the Japanese market. Looks like the perception on Splatoon changed since the marketing rolled out in the last few weeks.

My guess is Splatoon does as well as the recent Mario Party on WiiU better than Xenoblade X but not epic

 

[random25]

My guess is Splatoon does as well as the recent Mario Party on WiiU better than Xenoblade X but not epic

But it's better than bombing, like W101

But a >100k FW seems to be happening. That's pretty decent for a new IP on Wii U, and for a kind of game that it is.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

But it's better than bombing, like W101

But a >100k FW seems to be happening. That's pretty decent for a new IP on Wii U, and for a kind of game that it is.

not bad for WiiU at all if the 100K first week holds true

Xenoblade X already crossed 100k line on Famitsu but 100k First Week for Splatoon is well deserved I think the interest is there but not sure about the legs to carry it

As a new IP from Nintendo it is not shocking for them to take over charts with a new IPs on 3DS/DS a million Seller on WiiU is so hard to pull off in Japan and 1M seller is what I would love to see of IPs like this.

looking at Mario Kart 8 just limping towards 1M and Smash4U still at 600k thanks to 3DS for no help at all

where do we expect Splatoon to land after first week? ( my expectation 280K LTD in Japan )

TW101 + Bayo1+2 are fails, can't count them agaisnt how a Nintendo first party title will do

 

[jnWake]

I hope this apparent interest translates to (relative) success for Splatoon. I'd guess the Testfire was a great idea, pulling in many people that weren't that interested before (like me!).

 

[KillerMan91]

I think the better question is how much would Minecraft sell if there were a 3DS version available in Japan?

Could 3DS run Minecraft with enough of scale? I mean graphics wise Minecraft is nothing to write home about but if I remember right they had to downgrade the scale even for Vita because technical limitations. Scale is one the biggest selling points of console versions (and PC) of Minecraft.

 

[Jpop]

The blogger suggests that final FW shipment could double at this rate

This is good. It shows Nintendo that the franchise is viable for the future, though they probably already knew that.

 

[Mpl90]

The blogger suggests that final FW shipment could double at this rate

In that case, hopefully it sells as much as possible from the first shipment.

Also, new SRT game for 3DS coming

http://gematsu.com/2015/05/new-super-robot-wars-3ds-announced-this-weeks-famitsu

 

[Arzehn]

Cool to see Cygames expanding to console development

 

[casiopao]

In the upcoming showdown between Monster Hunter Explore and Monster Gear, Sega is off to a pretty good start:

Nirooo. Me need some data Hortensia Saga especially on May 21 plizzz. That day is the start of huge event for Guild Wars. I wanted to see whether it is going to have huge following or not here.^_^

If possible Chain Chronicle too.^_^(now is currently on Casino event lol.)

 

[Aostia]

Our favorite blogger says:

- Splatoon's shipment is already higher than Xenoblade X

[WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥8.316) - 85.586 / NEW <72,01%> [Units Shipped => 118.853]

The blogger suggests that final FW shipment could double at this rate

sorry for the probably dumb question, but reading these two post in a row means that the blogger think that Splatoon first week shipment could be around 200k? isn't that a little bit too optimistic for a brand new IP on the DeadU?

 

[casiopao]

sorry for the probably dumb question, but reading these two post in a row means that the blogger think that Splatoon first week shipment could be around 200k? isn't that a little bit too optimistic for a brand new IP on the DeadU?

There is no such thing as too optimistic. Ika is life. Ika Banzaiiii. Where is my Ika-musume x Splatoon here.T_T

 

[hiska-kun]

I got copies of Famitsu's Top 1000 2013. Also I got Top 30 Digital+Retail for November 2013 (the missing month).

I'll share the data with Road (if someone else wants it, just ask for it)

Finished that, it's time to move to Media Create 2015 White Book

 

[Moor-Angol]

why don't you post here Fami top1000?

it has been always done in the past, if it's just for translation I can give you a help

 

[hiska-kun]

sorry for the probably dumb question, but reading these two post in a row means that the blogger think that Splatoon first week shipment could be around 200k? isn't that a little bit too optimistic for a brand new IP on the DeadU?

The game is set for a +100k opening, what is so wrong for shipping 200k? That's more than the half of the shipment.

why don't you post here Fami top1000?

it has been always done in the past, if it's just for translation I can give you a help

Because I have the photocopies and I don't have scanner. So the only way is that I take photos of the 28 pages, upload them and start translating.

 

[Road]

Guys, remember posting scans in neogaf could lead to your banning.

Particularly, I think it was famitsu one if the complaining that created this rule.

People have been posting pictures of 20 year old magazines, but the white papers are new and very expensive.

Anyway, I'll only be able to translate stuff on the weekend.

I got copies of Famitsu's Top 1000 2013. Also I got Top 30 Digital+Retail for November 2013 (the missing month).

I'll share the data with Road (if someone else wants it, just ask for it)

Finished that, it's time to move to Media Create 2015 White Book

Edit: the missing november 2013 digital estimates

Thanks a lot for your effort!

 

[ZhugeEX]

DW8 XL did ok digital sales then. Nothing amazing but not bad either.

Thanks hiska.

Now lets do MC 2015 haha

 

[Bruno MB]

I got copies of Famitsu's Top 1000 2013. Also I got Top 30 Digital+Retail for November 2013 (the missing month).

I'll share the data with Road (if someone else wants it, just ask for it)

Finished that, it's time to move to Media Create 2015 White Book

You're bringing very nice presents to Japanese sales-age.

Muchas gracias

 

[hiska-kun]

One year and a half late:

Famitsu Sales: November 2013 [retail and digital] (Oct 28 - Dec 01)

01. [3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800) - 403.295 (13.585) / 416.880
02. [PS3] Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII <RPG> (Square Enix) {2013.11.21} (¥7.770) - 356.040 (5.686) / 361.726
03. [PSV] God Eater 2 # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.14} (¥5.980) - 315.624 (29.869) / 345.493
04. [PS3] Call of Duty: Ghosts - Subtitled Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2013.11.14} (¥7.980) - 263.565 (3.993) / 267.558
05. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2014 <SPT> (Konami) {2013.11.14} (¥7.980) - 215.319 (3.584) / 218.903
06. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2013.09.14} (¥5.990) - 169.813 (16.818) / 186.631
07. [WIU] Wii Party U # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥4.935) - 177.008 (3.486) / 180.494
08. [PSP] God Eater 2 <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.14} (¥5.980) - 154.266 (3.650) / 157.916
09. [PS3] Battlefield 4 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2013.11.07} (¥7.665) - 148.859 (4.895) / 153.754
10. [WIU] Super Mario 3D World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.11.21} (¥5.985) - 146.273 (4.763) / 151.036
11. [PS3] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2013 <SPT> (Konami) {2013.10.24} (¥3.980) - 117.130 (7.973) / 125.103
12. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2013.10.10} (¥7.770) - 118.751 (0) / 118.751
13. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (¥5.985) - 107.508 (759) / 108.267
14. [3DS] One Piece: Unlimited World Red # <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.21} (¥5.980) - 103.674 (2.576) / 106.250
15. [3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai 2 # <ACT> (Sega) {2013.11.28} (¥6.279) - 84.676 (4.139) / 88.815
16. [3DS] Little Battlers eXperience: Wars <RPG> (Level 5) {2013.10.31} (¥4.980) - 71.632 (2.627) / 74.259
17. [3DS] Aikatsu! 2-nin no My Princess <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.21} (¥5.480) - 69.519 (1.486) / 71.005
18. [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2013 <SPT> (Konami) {2013.10.24} (¥2.980) - 67.803 (1.936) / 69.739
19. [3DS] Daigasso! Band Brothers P <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.11.14} (¥4.800) - 61.769 (5.325) / 67.094
20. [PSV] Gundam Breaker # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.10.31} (¥6.980) - 49.754 (9.611) / 59.365
21. [PSV] Akiba's Trip 2 <ADV> (Acquire) {2013.11.07} (¥6.594) - 45.553 (5.708) / 51.261
22. [PS3] Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2013.11.28} (¥7.770) - 50.032 (0) / 50.032
23. [3DS] Battle For Money Sentouchuu: Densetsu no Shinobi no Survival Battle! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.10.17} (¥4.980) - 47.661 (1.554) / 49.215
24. [PS3] Dynasty Warriors 8: Xtreme Legends # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2013.11.28} (¥5.040) - 36.588 (6.318) / 42.906
25. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.800) - 37.836 (2.668) / 40.504
26. [PSV] Hyperdimension Neptunia Re:Birth1 # <RPG> (Compile Heart) {2013.10.31} (¥6.090) - 36.581 (3.740) / 40.321
27. [PS3] Tears to Tiara II: Haou no Matsuei # <SLG> (Aqua Plus) {2013.10.31} (¥6.980) - 30.897 (3.669) / 34.566
28. [PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2013 <SPT> (Konami) {2013.10.24} (¥3.980) - 29.052 (4.071) / 33.123
29. [3DS] Metal Max 4: Moonlight Diva # <RPG> (Kadokawa Games) {2013.11.07} (¥6.980) - 30.292 (1.637) / 31.929
30. [PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2014 <SPT> (Konami) {2013.11.14} (¥3.980) - 29.344 (1.664) / 31.008¥

 

[test_account]

I think the better question is how much would Minecraft sell if there were a 3DS version available in Japan?

Could 3DS run Minecraft with enough of scale? I mean graphics wise Minecraft is nothing to write home about but if I remember right they had to downgrade the scale even for Vita because technical limitations. Scale is one the biggest selling points of console versions (and PC) of Minecraft.

Yeah, without knowing how Minecraft would run on the 3DS, its hard to know about the sales potential. If the game had to be limited, it could also affect the enjoyment of the game, and further affect the sales of that version.

 

[sörine]

Could 3DS run Minecraft with enough of scale? I mean graphics wise Minecraft is nothing to write home about but if I remember right they had to downgrade the scale even for Vita because technical limitations. Scale is one the biggest selling points of console versions (and PC) of Minecraft.

Console Minecraft also has reduced scale, it's even behind PE now that Mojang added infinite worlds to those versions.

A 3DS port might need to be reduced further (I believe it depends on save file restrictions), but a conversion could be done. There's already several commercial and homebrew clones on the system.