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May 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 9th

J

John Bender

Banned
On Demand said:
You can't add rankings together and assume they mean more sales than another item that's ranked much higher.

And Amazon was wrong last month on the winner. No it wasn't because of the 2 XB1 SKU's making up for more totals sales, it was because gamestop had a better deal. Which brings me to my next point that you have to take other retailers into account also. More so when sales will be swayed towards the retailer with the best deal at the time.
Click to expand...
I knew about Gamestop's trade-in deal, etc. I was aware that the XBO could beat the PS4 April.
Going by the current Amazon Rankings, my guess is XBO >>> PS4
I see it like that. Let's se what happens in a week.
 
G

Grimgrillz

Banned
John Bender said:
I knew about Gamestop's trade-in deal, etc. I was aware that the XBO could beat the PS4 April.
Going by the current Amazon Rankings, my guess is XBO >>> PS4
I see it like that. Let's se what happens in a week.
Click to expand...

Doesn't NPD release in a few days

Anyway my prediction

[PS4] 210k
[XB1] 190k
 
J

Javin98

Banned
ZhugeEX said:
Well it's a fairly simple calculation.

All you got to do is work out the difference between 47 and 32 which is 15, then work out the difference between 25 and 32 which is 7. Then you do 15 x 7 which is 105.

Then you got to work out the average between between 32 and 47 which is 39.5, lets call it 40, and add it to 105. So we can quite clearly see that the Xbox One should sell 145k.

Now we do the same for PS4. We got 25, then times it by 7 (difference of 32 and 25) and you get 175k.

So, it's quite clear that the PS4 will sell 175k and the Xbox One will sell 145K.

Did I mention I have a degree in Math?
Click to expand...
If those numbers are spot on, I'll walk up to you, call you a genius and slap you :p
 
panda-zebra

panda-zebra

Banned
ZhugeEX said:
So, it's quite clear that the PS4 will sell 175k and the Xbox One will sell 145K.
Click to expand...

If those numbers are anything like close to the actual ones... well... we'll expect similar magic next time out.

lucky for you your ps4 figure is as crazy as the maths that generated it

EDIT: FFS Javin lol
 
J

Javin98

Banned
panda-zebra said:
If those numbers are anything like close to the actual ones... well... we'll expect similar magic next time out.

lucky for you your ps4 figure is as crazy as the maths that generated it

EDIT: FFS Javin lol
Click to expand...
LOL, maybe I can use my physic powers to tell the numbers too XD
 
Dredd97

Dredd97

Member
[PS4] 120k
[XB1] 140k
[WiiU] 50k

Slight win again this month of the XB1 as peeps hold off for that ps4 batman console

The witcher 3 to be the top selling Sku with the PS4 outselling the xb1
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Last month I forgot, not today. I will fight for my crown.

[3DS] 103k
[PS4] 167k
[WIU] 56k
[XB1] 151k
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Javin98 said:
LOL, Welfare, you now think the PS4 will take May? But you were so confident the XB1 would win XD
Click to expand...

I care more about my points than whether Xbox takes another win. lol

Also that Best Buy deal came out of nowhere, so better to be safe than sorry!
 
J

Javin98

Banned
TomShoe said:
I think PS4 will take May since there hasn't been any significant trade in deals as far as I know.
Click to expand...
Same. Also, the Best Buy deal for the PS4 could have helped it secure May. And I don't think the white XB1 was available in huge amounts.

Welfare said:
I care more about my points than whether Xbox takes another win. lol

Also that Best Buy deal came out of nowhere, so better to be safe than sorry!
Click to expand...
Let's hope your initial predictions were wrong, then :p
 
T

Ty4on

Member
Welfare said:
Basically the Xbox One GS deal. Trade in a 360 or PS3 and get up to $175 to go towards a PS4. One week of May and one week of June.
Click to expand...
I feel we're exiting the time of Amazon placements and entering the time of trade in deals :p

They have had quite a bit effect though. I'm worried my bump is too conservative, but I kept thinking Best Buy "only" has a 12%~ share of video game sales.
 
D

Doctor Professional

Banned
Drat, oh well maybe next month.

AstuteClass said:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-05/videogames/

Amazon puts PS4 ahead of X1 for May. Why is everyone saying X1 will win again?
Click to expand...

Amazon was wrong last month.


Javin98 said:
Same. Also, the Best Buy deal for the PS4 could have helped it secure May. And I don't think the white XB1 was available in huge amounts.


Let's hope your initial predictions were wrong, then :p
Click to expand...

GS has had plenty of White Xbox One Halo MCC stock, and had a (checks) STILL has a deal with having a 1 year sub of gold along with that (though it's no longer $350 and is $380 now but that's still a good deal and the previous deal was there for awhile.

I know I'm late but looking through my primary jobs data, I can't really get too clear of a picture my I see a small win.

Halo White Bundles were uneven in terms of sstock, however GS got plenty of them, which may sway things.

White Bundles selling out at best buys reportedly.

PS4's batman bundles suddenly increasing by the start of june.

This will be an curious one to look at.

slavesnyder said:
NPD will be completely under the radar because of pre E3 hype.
Click to expand...

Nah, see the E3 hype is leaking out right now before E3. So I better hope there's surprise announcements. I only know some of the line-up of the console companies. Some have changed though so it seems to be a good sign.
 
D

Doctor Professional

Banned
StrongBlackVine said:
Was it really wrong though? Two main Xbox One SKUs vs one for PS4.
Click to expand...

The cumulative sales numbers of both those Sku's where below the PS4 when I was looking through the numbers (originally for a different reason that's phone related, small detour.)

BTW TLOU was also there, it just didn't show up in the chart. Amazon still has yet to fix their broken system.
 
D

Doctor Professional

Banned
Ty4on said:
Amazon didn't have the Gamestop promo so they will be "right" this month.
Click to expand...

Amazon... Didn't have the Gamestop promo last month either. Because GS and Amazon are different companies.

If what you mean is the GS trade-ins, gave the lead to the Xbox One, I don't think that alone added over 13,000 sales. Outside of exceptions trade-in deals usually aren't that impactual.
 
I

idlewild_

Member
Doctor Professional said:
Amazon... Didn't have the Gamestop promo last month either. Because GS and Amazon are different companies.

If what you mean is the GS trade-ins, gave the lead to the Xbox One, I don't think that alone added over 13,000 sales. Outside of exceptions trade-in deals usually aren't that impactual.
Click to expand...

The XB1 deal seems to have driven quite a bit of growth, per earlier in this thread:

jvm said:
I thought this might be of interest, since it demonstrates the power of a hardware promotion.

A promotion that we recently ran shows the power of our unique value proposition. During the month of April, we partnered with Microsoft to run a promotion where customers could buy a new Xbox One console for $275 with the trade in of either a PS3 or an Xbox 360 console. We nearly doubled our Xbox One market share during the month, but more importantly, GameStop drove two-thirds of the 63% industry growth that Xbox One experienced during the month. We are providing unprecedented value that is fueling this cycle’s growth.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
G

gtj1092

Member
Doctor Professional said:
Amazon... Didn't have the Gamestop promo last month either. Because GS and Amazon are different companies.

If what you mean is the GS trade-ins, gave the lead to the Xbox One, I don't think that alone added over 13,000 sales. Outside of exceptions trade-in deals usually aren't that impactual.
Click to expand...

Reading through your post do you have access to sales data or am I reading them wrong?
 
D

Doctor Professional

Banned
ZhugeEX said:
Care to elaborate?
Click to expand...

The cumulative sales figures for Amazon based on rank for the two XBox One Sku's where, when I looked at them, not higher than the PS4.

I can't really post any numbers as my company is uh... Aggressive.

I can however slightly explain the other portion, originally I was checking Amazon for phone performance, of course, there's access to others things as well 500 stores comprising, of a couple phone companies, Wal-mart, target, Bestbuy, GS Office Depot, Staples, Costco, Bj's etc. While we can't view all at companies there are portions we can have access to.

This is why i said in an earlier post I couldn't really tell the winner because from what I have their tied, so I just used my own prediction. Sadly I missed the deadline. Of course, that's not my fault technically. Usually, despite only being 500 stores, it's a good range for a prediction.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Ehi, you know what? We have some small infos on Canada, after all!

http://alphabeatic.com/nintendo-canada/

Select quotes

What’s different or unique about the Canadian market, either in terms of how you sell into it or from the consumption side? How do Canadian gamers react toward Nintendo that’s different?

I get asked that a lot because I spent time in both countries. On the consumer front, Canadians seem to prefer console gaming to portable gaming compared to the U.S., and very much so compared to other markets like Japan, where portable gaming is much bigger. Our Wii U momentum in Canada is slightly better (than the U.S.). Canadian gamers love getting together in the living room.

My hypothesis to explain this is there are more parents in Canada buying consoles and thinking of their kids as a priority, versus thinking of a console purchase as one for the adult gamer in the house. The reverse side of it is that we struggle a bit with portable gaming.

Another factor I’ve called out is that our Nintendo fans are louder and there are more of them on a per capita basis. We have an amazing fan base here that the team has managed to build. Call them info-seeking die-hard fans who have been playing for a long time, they’re really passionate. With traditional franchises like Zelda, Nintendo Canada seems to outperform versus other markets.

Also, consumers are more value conscious than in other markets. They’re a lot more price sensitive so when we work with our retail partners and put in price promotions, they react more in Canada than in other markets.
Click to expand...

That being said, we’re seeing digital sales in our e-shop increasing gradually. It now represents about 30 per cent of new software launches. That was zero just a few years ago.
Click to expand...

Amiibo was one of the factors, it certainly surprised us how enthusiastic our fans embraced it to the the degree where we’re still struggling to catch up to demand in some cases. Beyond that, Wii U – which struggled for many years, and to be honest, we’re still not completely satisfied with where it is – had its best year in 2014.

This year so far in Canada, Wii U is up 19 per cent based on NPD numbers. Last year was a huge growth year with big launches like Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros.

On the 3DS side, it’s doing even better. It’s up 38 per cent based on NPD so far this year, mostly driven by the new 3DS XL launch back in February.
Click to expand...

What’s the feeling internally on Splatoon?

Our presale numbers were amazing, close to Mario Kart 8 numbers a year ago, which is amazing because Mario Kart is an established franchise. Splatoon’s challenge is that a few months ago, nobody had ever heard of it.

I love that as a dad it’s something I can play with my seven-year-old. It’s a complete revolution on what a shooter can be.

We’re looking at first weekend sales of about half of where Mario Kart 8 was. Given that Mario Kart 8 was one of the best-selling games last year, that’s extraordinary for a brand new IP like this.
Click to expand...
 
O

On Demand

Banned
Why do people think 2 SKU's mean more sales? It's just regular sales spilt over 2.

If, Doctor Professional, is to be believed, i was right in thinking that and PS4 sales are still higher just as the charts show.
 
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