Ah ok, thanks for explaining. I assume you work in the telecommunications industry like myself then.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
May 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Ah ok, thanks for explaining. I assume you work in the telecommunications industry like myself then.
And so.... it begins!
joecanada
Member
Amazon wasn't wrong last month just Noone knew how the two xbox SKU stood against the one ps4 ranked slightly higher... but obviously the two combined were more than the ps4 one...
The Amazon data won't ever be complete but it's a Damn good predictor
How do you know that?
OnionPowder
Member
Steam sales and NPD thread in the same day? What a wonderful day to be alive
joecanada
Member
Well hypothetically of course. We don't know if amazon actually sold more xbox than PS4 but the indicators were all there for a close race...
Steam sales thread will be in a lull when NPD comes out. Wasn't it like 8 hours between community picks last time?
Mister Megative
Banned
Ugh, May. We all know the May numbers will be low, as they normally are, especially this early in a console's life cycle. I'm not looking forward to the cries of "consoles are doomed" coming tomorrow as they do every year during this time.
Ugh. May. Bring on the holidays, when consoles aren't doomed anymore.
Ugh. May. Bring on the holidays, when consoles aren't doomed anymore.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Those June Predictions for PS4 are gonna be dope though!
June is gonna have:
- 1 week Best Buy Trade-in deal for PS4
- 1 week GameStop Free 1 year PS Plus with PS4 Purchase deal
- (All Retailers) Arkham Knight Limited Edition Bundles
- (All Retailers) Regular Black Arkham PS4 Bundles
I expect 500k minimun or Destiny Bundle type sales.
Welfare
Member
Not in June. No way. PS3 only did slightly above 400k with MGS4 in 2008 (4 weeks).
360 did 452k with the Slim model in 2010 (3 weeks). It did do 507k in June 2011, but that was after the Kinect launch last year and 2011 went on to be the 360's peak year.
I don't see the PS4 going anywhere near 500k. Not in June.
I would agree with this.
Seems pretty close too my predictions
Mister Megative
Banned
I'm guessing around 375-400k, which is still spectacular. Consoles may or may not be doomed again til September, when MGS V conducts the annual saving of the industry.
Chobel
Member
Did X360 had trade-in deals that year and month?
freefornow
Member
Hmmm, I may have lowballed the U if thats the aggregate.
Agreed. The Destiny bundle has skewed everyone's perception. It was ourageously succesful. We are talking Halo 3 succesful here.
That's wayyyyy too optimistic. I was thinking ~320k and I thought I was pushing it.
Edit: yea basically what everyone else said.
About 24 hours from now to see which console really took May!
I'm expecting a PS4 win but maby the last minute white console bundle did better than i thought.
I'm expecting a PS4 win myself. Regarding the white XB1 bundle, from what we know, it didn't really make a significant difference to sales. Furthermore, the PS4 had a deal at Best Buy.
500K seems too high. I'm not gonna make any predictions yet, but I'd say 350K-450K seem like a safe bet and it's possible the PS4 will be 100K units or more above the XB1 in June.
Doctor Professional
Banned
Kind of not really. Sometimes it splits, buu one sells more than the other. A console F can be $40-50, and a console B can be at #5, there's a chance however, that id console F increases to 32 and drops to 34 the next day, and console B drops to 10 but increases back to #9, the next day console F actually sold more product.
This is why you see ACU bundle much higher than Halo MCC, because comulative sales keep it in the usual areas. This Applies to all products in the rank.
With that said, Amazon is a very bad indication unless you have the sheets in front of you.
Partially yes.
The two Xbox One SKu's did not add more than the PS4, and TLOU bundle had enough to chart but Amazons site for some reason did not actually upload it to the chart.
Impossible, that's not even close to possible. Think about the number you're posting.
PS4 has nothing strong enough to reach that high, and I and many others would notice if PS4's where starting to move that big.
It's hard to tell.
The 500 stores my company tracks (which aren't all Video game retailers but a very good number sell them) last i was able to check, indicated not much of a difference.
All I know is white Bundles were selling out, and GS got huge shipments of them and have the most availability. Also PS4 had some deal but i forgot what it was.
But when you just do an individual hypothesis, this month there was The Witcher 3 Xbox One marketing, no other games, Batman Pre-orders, Halo White Bundles, and that's it.
I guess it depends on if PS4's are in high demand near the end of may for Batman, or if people wanted to play Halo with a White console. Oddly enough, the White consoles got distributed to more stores at the start of this month.
Doctor Professional
Banned
Where have you heard this?
Well, one of our retail GAF, Abdiel, said this. Sorry, on mobile, hard to find that quote.
I think it's from both the Amazon lack of any splash (quantities seem to have been really limited again) and Abdiel's report if memory serves.
Late reply, but I'm guessing your prediction would have had the PS4 and XB1 be very close?
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
7 hours and 20min to go
The Grim Reaper
Banned
Looking forward to tonight's data release.
Doctor Professional
Banned
GS is selling them non-stop, and have some nice stock as well, even have a deal with 1 year of live, and for some time was $350 (now $380 but still a good deal) Amazon it never really took off, I don't think people know it was on Amazon since it was never advertised.
Of course, I'm not saying that I have enough info to say it's selling enough to win, btu I would say that IF it does win, or it loses but the gap isn't too big it probably won't be because of the Witcher 3.
With that said, since this IS NA, The Witcher 3 will probably help Xbox One here more than other areas, though probably not by much. IF XO has the highest selling SKu of the game I'd be quite surprised.
Pretty much. No real advantage for either outside of the White Halo Bundle. Which may or may not be just trading shots with the black one.
The Grim Reaper
Banned
The NPD Group releases data to major clients at market close (i.e. 4 PM ET).
NPD PR responds two and a half hours later (6:30 PM ET) and The Big 3 make comments around that timeframe if they can spin the results positively.
Another set of clients receives time-delayed data varying from a few hours to within the next couple of days.
But all the significant ones (major publishers, research equity, etc.) go the extra mile for ASAP results. Immediacy of data is important in business.
GAF leaks happen sporadically throughout the day but tend to be back-loaded approx. 4-6 hours after clients get the data at market close.
Doctor Professional
Banned
6:30.
Hmmm, I wonder maybe we have access to that. Probably not. but I'll find out. Probably not worth the risk though.
Mister Megative
Banned
Don't get yourself in trouble, bro. We'll get cream and sugar pies for dessert this eve.
Mister Megative
Banned
You think Witcher 3 pushed hardware to a better-than-average May, like Watch Dogs last year?
Sangetsu-II
Member
I guess everyone forgot to count the possible pricecut that may happen in June think about it guys
Mister Megative
Banned
I guess everyone forgot to count the possible pricecut that may happen in June think about it guys
If there's a pricecut announced, there's no......NO.....way it takes effect in June. That'll happen this holiday season to help the Uncharted Collection counter Halo.
Sangetsu-II
Member
No that would be the other price cut in Paris Event.
Announcing a price cut for Holiday at E3 is suicide. I believe they will make two $50 price cuts one permanent and the other holiday deal.
Doctor Professional
Banned
Too late, plus with Xbox One reemphasizing the $349 cut to people who still apparently don't know it happened, along with $350 not being a shock factor can't see it.
Although announcements at E3 could effect june. For all consoles and the Wii U.
The Ninth Life
Banned
As long as Sony stays cumulative sales leader in both US and UK, I think we're good.
Once even that lead is gone in either market, I think Sony needs to seriously think about selling off its studios and focusing 100% on life insurance.
There is no way Xbox One should even be as close as it is now. Having a serious crisis of confidence in Sony's fitness for survival.
Once even that lead is gone in either market, I think Sony needs to seriously think about selling off its studios and focusing 100% on life insurance.
There is no way Xbox One should even be as close as it is now. Having a serious crisis of confidence in Sony's fitness for survival.
Mister Megative
Banned
I don't even know where to begin with this.
The expression "Sony's fitness for survival" makes me laugh hard, and I don't even get the reason.
Mister Megative
Banned
Hopefully I won't be one of them. I just plan on congratulating the winner and moving on.
KillerSloth
Banned
This gun be good.
Mister Megative
Banned
Sony needs to start exercising more.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Welfare
Member
Seriously should've saved this post for the actual thread.