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May 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 9th

As long as Sony stays cumulative sales leader in both US and UK, I think we're good.

Once even that lead is gone in either market, I think Sony needs to seriously think about selling off its studios and focusing 100% on life insurance.

There is no way Xbox One should even be as close as it is now. Having a serious crisis of confidence in Sony's fitness for survival.

Finally a good joke post. You did good, sir.
 
Hey Cosmic. I'm a longtime lurker, new member. Your inputs to the NPD discussions over the years have been incredibly interesting to read :)

Welcome and thanks! Of course, the one you responded to was certainly neither incredible nor interesting. But I dig it.

Oh hey Zhuge, welcome back.
 

BrunoM

Member
As long as Sony stays cumulative sales leader in both US and UK, I think we're good.

Once even that lead is gone in either market, I think Sony needs to seriously think about selling off its studios and focusing 100% on life insurance.

There is no way Xbox One should even be as close as it is now. Having a serious crisis of confidence in Sony's fitness for survival.
You know what I was going to but I'm not even going there
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Oh hey Zhuge, welcome back.

latest
 
As long as Sony stays cumulative sales leader in both US and UK, I think we're good.

Once even that lead is gone in either market, I think Sony needs to seriously think about selling off its studios and focusing 100% on life insurance.

There is no way Xbox One should even be as close as it is now. Having a serious crisis of confidence in Sony's fitness for survival.

In the last fiscal year ending March 31st, 2015, Sony Life Insurance had an operating profit of 178.0 billion JPY ($1.44 billion), 92% of the Financial Services segment.

It is clearly a very profitable sector which props up other underperforming / failing segments (like Sony's mobile business).

But it's definitely not the whole story. Here is a table of Sony's most recent financials:

fkrHfSU.png


You can clearly see that there are numerous other sectors which support Sony's bottom line. To kill diversification and lose all of those potential segments cripples Sony's growth potential. Quite frankly, it's a horrible way to run a business.
 
In the last fiscal year ending March 31st, 2015, Sony Life Insurance had an operating profit of 178.0 billion JPY ($1.44 billion), 92% of the Financial Services segment.

It is clearly a very profitable sector which props up other underperforming / failing segments (like Sony's mobile business).

But it's definitely not the whole story. Here is a table of Sony's most recent financials:

fkrHfSU.png


You can clearly see that there are numerous other sectors which support Sony's bottom line. To kill diversification and lose all of those potential segments cripples Sony's growth potential. Quite frankly, it's a horrible way to run a business.

I just like the mental picture of Sony doing pilates to increase it's fitness.
 

Ty4on

Member
Edit:
Pretty much. No real advantage for either outside of the White Halo Bundle. Which may or may not be just trading shots with the black one.
Thanks! And sorry for being a bit direct. I extrapolate a lot.
I know it's only in for like 2 days of sales, but I'm more curious about Splatoon than I've been about any game in a long, long time.

Me too. That and WiiU sales. MK8 barely did anything the first month, but Splatoon had a surprising effect in Japan.

I wonder if they didn't mention the WiiU (software or hardware) in the press release because they were poor or because they didn't need cushioning.
 

Geg

Member
I know it's only in for like 2 days of sales, but I'm more curious about Splatoon than I've been about any game in a long, long time.

Nintendo themselves would have numbers beyond the end of May right? Think they'll give more info about it along with the usual PR?
 
Nintendo themselves would have numbers beyond the end of May right? Think they'll give more info about it along with the usual PR?

Nintendo corporate regularly makes sell-through estimates through frequent communication with major retailers.

As aforementioned, it's important to have data as soon as possible. Nintendo isn't going to wait multiple weeks for data when they could make strategic decisions now.

However, they do wait for NPD to get sell-through confirmation and to see how the overall retail market is performing.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
I know it's only in for like 2 days of sales, but I'm more curious about Splatoon than I've been about any game in a long, long time.





I rescind my initial statement.

We are ALL winners here now.

You're not alone, sir. And I say that for both of your statements! No Cain wodoo this month, wohooo!
 
I've literally seen and heard a few things implying Wii U won the month, but if that's the case I'm expecting the units of the highest console to be ~90k this month.

Edit:

Thank! And sorry for being a bit direct. I extrapolate a lot.


Me too. That and WiiU sales. MK8 barely did anything the first month, but Splatoon had a surprising effect in Japan.

I wonder if they didn't mention the WiiU (software or hardware) in the press release because they were poor or because they didn't need cushioning.

No problem.
 
Nintendo themselves would have numbers beyond the end of May right? Think they'll give more info about it along with the usual PR?

Trying to predict what Nintendo will or won't do regarding numbers is a fool's errand.

3, so we'll know since new Ips seem front loaded before they show legs, on how well it did.

Yep. 3 days is more than enough to get a solid read.

what are your predictions for it ?

Now you sound like my boss.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
I've literally seen and heard a few things implying Wii U won the month, but if that's the case I'm expecting the units of the highest console to be ~90k this month.



No problem.

Who were those people you heard such things from? Where did you see it? It's basically impossible, unless everything collapsed due to completely unknown reasons. It would be just so unreal, like entering a different dimension. A bit like entering in past month's Gaf prediction thread.
 
Who were those people you heard such things from? Where did you see it? It's basically impossible, unless everything collapsed due to completely unknown reasons. It would be just so unreal, like entering a different dimension. A bit like entering in past month's Gaf prediction thread.

"Wii U was the highest selling Nintendo home console this month"

:p
 
Predicting an Xbox One win. Sony a close second. Nintendo a distant third. Basically a repeat of last month. Expecting Xbox to maintain last month's momentum. Interested in seeing the results and the usual NPD mayhem regardless. NPD nights are always entertaining for a couple of hours. See you all around 11pm GMT.
 

Welfare

Member
So I just had the best power nap ever!

My body is ready.
Lucky you. I went to bed at 6 am and woke up at 11 am. If I took a nap I would sleep through today.

But are your charts ready?

Yeah don't let me take the glory :p

what were the releases last month that could have moved consoles/systems? only witcher 3? i couldn't really think of any.
Witcher 3, Splatoon had a Best Buy bundle I think.
 
Who were those people you heard such things from? Where did you see it? It's basically impossible, unless everything collapsed due to completely unknown reasons. It would be just so unreal, like entering a different dimension. A bit like entering in past month's Gaf prediction thread.

I wouldn't think too much of it. I am not seeing anything else implying that, probably just some skewed data from a local area.
 

Jamix012

Member
3, so we'll know since new Ips seem front loaded before they show legs, on how well it did.

New IPs are frontloaded? Since when. Generally the opposite is true. On top of that it's showing legs in Japan already and while that's not indicative of the rest of the world I doubt it'll be completely front loaded anyway. Still 3 days should give an idea of how it started.
 

On Demand

Banned
I'm expecting a PS4 win myself. Regarding the white XB1 bundle, from what we know, it didn't really make a significant difference to sales. Furthermore, the PS4 had a deal at Best Buy.

Yeah it had the memorial day deal at GS for 2 days and the BB trade in deal for over a week.

I just always get these gut feelings NPD day. :)

I guess i should also take into account the white bundle being limited.
 
As long as Sony stays cumulative sales leader in both US and UK, I think we're good.

Once even that lead is gone in either market, I think Sony needs to seriously think about selling off its studios and focusing 100% on life insurance.

There is no way Xbox One should even be as close as it is now. Having a serious crisis of confidence in Sony's fitness for survival.

June brings Junior crazy.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
So this will be the month when the install base of PlayStation 4 and Xbox One exceeds cumulative 15 million in the USA.

More than 55% higher than the PS3 and Xbox 360 (aligned) cumulative install base at the same time.
 

Abdiel

Member
This time of year (Leading up to E3) is always really funny for me in the retail aspect. This is literally like a second Christmas for us hardcore enthusiasts, but for the larger retail (especially retail electronics), this time of year is basically crap. Not soon enough to start the pre-college sales, no major holidays to push things besides Memoria/ Mother's/Father's day (and seriously, that's low spectrum consideration).

I saw someone speculating on my comments about the White XB1 models, and saying they saw a ton at their stores. That's totally feasible. We got stock of them, but it was still split between the black/white bundles, and it wasn't exactly a big 'deal' bundle. The Destiny bundle was building on ultra-hype for the game on top of the resounding success the system was drumming up. The white XB1 bundle has just been "hey, a different color, available more than the Sunset bundles- But with no real difference other than color".

It's *selling*, but at least where I've monitored, it's sold effectively in replacement for Black models, not overpowering one way or the other.

I'm interested to see how the larger market carried through though.
 
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