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[The Grim Reaper]

Did some looking at their published titles list for 2015.

On the 3DS we have:

1. The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D (Great Success!)
2. Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. (Bomba!)
3. Fossil Fighters: Frontier (???)
4. Puzzle & Dragons Z + Super Mario Bros. Edition (Bomba!)
5. Xenoblade Chronicles 3D (Okay!)

And on WiiU we have:

1. Kirby and the Rainbow Curse (Okay!)
2. Mario Party 10 (Okay!)
3. Splatoon (Okay!)

I'd assume MK8 and Smash are continuing on as evergreens (Smash is still charting from time to time) with decent sales month to month. But having some general idea of the numbers of sales of the listed titles... is everyone else (as in publishers) just not finding their usual successes just yet? Simply from the absence of W_D/Destiny types of sales figures which could be skewing Nintendo's position upwards. I'd wonder where Sony sits with the Order's collapse and failure, as Bloodborne and MLB are their only published titles with any modicum of success as far as I am aware so far this year. Has Microsoft published anything?

I'm going to dig back a few months in NPDs for the year and see what was released by what other publishers.

Edit: Looking back, no wonder WB is so dominant right now. Wow, they've released the bulk of the major titles.

Please keep in mind that even though Nintendo is the #2 publisher year-to-date, they could very well be quite close to other publishers.

Nintendo could be ahead by just the narrowest of margins such that other publishers could overtake them in subsequent months.

Mostly it's because not very many publishers are releasing titles and that Nintendo is almost always near the top most years because of their evergreen titles like Mario Kart and Smash Bros. Despite the success or failure of their consoles, Nintendo is always a top publisher in the industry even if not at the top.

I wouldn't say they're at "the top." That's pushing it. Remember, there are a lot of wildly successful games like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto V.

 

[Vena]

Please keep in mind that even though Nintendo is the #2 publisher year-to-date, they could very well be quite close to other publishers.

Nintendo could be ahead by just the narrowest of margins such that other publishers could overtake them in subsequent months.

Indeed, which is why asked if it wasn't from the absence of "big hitters" that dominated sales charts last year from the likes of Acti and Ubi.

The only publishers who have released "significant" titles have been EA (Hardline), WB (at #1), Sony (Order flopped, Bloodborne fell off fast, and MLB seems to be trucking along), Microsoft (Minecraft but mostly digital), and Take-Two (GTAV), and... that's it. I feel like I must be missing titles.

 

[The Grim Reaper]

Indeed, which is why asked if it wasn't from the absence of "big hitters" that dominated sales charts last year from the likes of Acti and Ubi.

The only publishers who have released "significant" titles have been EA (Hardline), WB (at #1), Sony (Order flopped, Bloodborne fell off fast, and MLB seems to be trucking along), Microsoft (Minecraft but mostly digital), and Take-Two (GTAV), and... that's it. I feel like I must be missing titles.

I'm not sure you can talk about titles which the publishers "lost" because every year is unique with a unique set of strategic publisher decisions that has varied levels of success.

This sort of randomization may switch up rankings. I think I remember seeing somewhere that Nintendo was the #3 publisher YTD last May. One of our esteemed sales insiders can correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Orgen]

E3 shit total $&@! mad house this year ha. Totally missed this entire thread. How we doin boys?

As always, interested about Wii u SW. We know Splatoon's numbers didn't affect on Wii U HW, but what about SW? Did it increase, stayed the same or decreased the April SW numbers?

Many thanks!

 

[The Grim Reaper]

As always, interested about Wii u SW. We know Splatoon's numbers didn't affect on Wii U HW, but what about SW? Did it increase, stayed the same or decreased the April SW numbers?

Many thanks!

Think about it logically.

Nintendo didn't release a new Wii U game in April.

Nintendo released a new Wii U game in May.


Surely May Wii U total software sales would be a good deal higher than April, right?

 

[GnawtyDog]

Do we know the Witcher 3 split on consoles?

 

[Chobel]

Do we know the Witcher 3 split on consoles?

PS4 60%

 

[ZhugeEX]

That chart perfectly demonstrates why gen 7 went on for so long and also how the industry is in a very clear contraction despite the PS4 and Xbox One doing well. The effects of mobile are undeniable and its not just because the 'Wii installbase went to mobile', I hate that narrative. This is on a much grander scale and is an industry wide trend.

Yup, it's not all down to Mobile even though that is one big factor. But we started to see signs that the industry was in decline even last gen as well, just they're now more easy to see.

Zhuge:

Excellent analysis, I agree on almost all points. I think VR is really the only thing that's even arguable, in that it hasn't happened yet. It's hard to argue against the effects of mobile, for instance, because they're already happening right now, as we speak.

VR also doesn't seem like a Wiimote or Eyetoy style "game changer" to me, either. I'd just say it's possible, though, because I'm very conservative about forecasting the future.

Thanks mate,

I think VR is a tough one to track as we're still a year away from Morpheus launching on consoles and it really is unknown what will change before then.

As of right now I don't see it being a game changer either. It will be "big" but right now I see most of the buyers being people who already own a console, unlike Kinect where it actually bought in a lot of new buyers.

I've already outlined the reasons why I think this will be the case and I don't think we'll see a sales extension tool like Kinect again which causes sales to increase upwards. In its first year, Kinect sold just under 18 million units but I believe that Morpheus will sell more like the first Eye Toy which sold over 4 million units in its first year (worldwide).


Just found this online, it accurately demonstrates how the 360 was a big seller later into its life, unlike all previous consoles and how Kinect was a big contributor.

 

[JaggedSac]

Yup, it's not all down to Mobile even though that is one big factor. But we started to see signs that the industry was in decline even last gen as well, just they're now more easy to see.



Thanks mate,

I think VR is a tough one to track as we're still a year away from Morpheus launching on consoles and it really is unknown what will change before then.

As of right now I don't see it being a game changer either. It will be "big" but right now I see most of the buyers being people who already own a console, unlike Kinect where it actually bought in a lot of new buyers.

I've already outlined the reasons why I think this will be the case and I don't think we'll see a sales extension tool like Kinect again which causes sales to increase upwards. In its first year, Kinect sold just under 18 million units but I believe that Morpheus will sell more like the first Eye Toy which sold over 4 million units in its first year (worldwide).


Just found this online, it accurately demonstrates how the 360 was a big seller later into its life, unlike all previous consoles and how Kinect was a big contributor.

Easy to see why they tried to push it on the Bone. Shame they didn't use their analytics gathering to determine that people didn't really like it, lol.

 

[Orgen]

Think about it logically.

Nintendo didn't release a new Wii U game in April.

Nintendo released a new Wii U game in May.


Surely May Wii U total software sales would be a good deal higher than April, right?

Nope, I was talking about other titles (besides Splatoon) to see if they got a bump/increase or not.

Sorry if I was not clear, English is not my first language ;D

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Actually if you look at the market, most of the quickly produced low budget games of the PS2 and Wii that remained in the retail console market into this generation increased their actual quality. There is a world of difference between the Batman games that WB Games publish nowadays and the Batman games of the PS1 and PS2 eras. LEGO Star Wars began as a title that was basically shovelware, but yet it ended up being a surprise hit and later titles have gotten bigger budgets. A Lord of the Rings title back on the PS2 was likely not worth buying, but now Shadows of Mordor is one of WB Games' top titles of the generation. Even games like OneChanbara and Earth Defense Force increased their quality from their earlier versions on the PS2.

Licenced titles are not the same thing as shovelware.
A well known development studio and a well known IP is almost guaranteed never to be shovelware.

Lego Star Wars was never even close to being shovelware.

Retail shovelware like Ninjabread Man gave way to digital shovelware like Bad Rats because a game like Bad Rats is cheaper to make than a game like Ninjabread Man.

Yes, mobile and PC digital are the current homes of shovelware.
It's because both of those platforms are currently extremely healthy platforms to develop for with large userbases spending money on products.

EDIT:

I think there's a potential case for arguing that last gen wasn't one long gen, it was two relatively short gens of Wii -> X360 + Kinect.

 

[Refreshment.01]

A repeat of what i've been saying for years now:

Regarding the concerns about sales decline for the home console market, i' ll just say im sticking to my belief that VR is goona provide a very important boost to the sector. Of course the benefits will be centered mostly around the PS4.

Is just that the experience is better suited for home consoles than mobile devices. i don't see price as a concern at the start since the dedicated consumer will be enough to sustain sales. Adding to this the demand probably won't be satisfied for some time so the price won't hurt any potential sales.

As for HMDs been available in other platforms. Well... consoles to this day still have the advantage of been perceived as more consumer friendly (aside from the fact that PC platform has made huge gains in ease of use), so that's aluring to someone that wants to get into the experience as quickly as possible.

VR will also increase the amount of consumer awareness and attention to this market segment as VR gets more to the mainstream and consoles work as gateways to the experience.

 

[QaaQer]

Software revenues continue to correlate directly with release counts. I started a thread on it that went nowhere.

But the efforts haven't been poor. There just haven't been enough of them.

MrNyar also linked a super interesting piece on design in that thread.

Lost garden is great blog. And your thread did go somewhere, even if it didn't exploded into 18 000 posts.

which reminds me, is there anyway to get a notification when a particular member makes a thread? I'm sure I miss a lot of interesting things because of the crazy high noise to signal ratio.

 

[Mister Megative]

Licenced titles are not the same thing as shovelware.
A well known development studio and a well known IP is almost guaranteed never to be shovelware.

Lego Star Wars was never even close to being shovelware.



Yes, mobile and PC digital are the current homes of shovelware.
It's because both of those platforms are currently extremely healthy platforms to develop for with large userbases spending money on products.

EDIT:


I think there's a potential case for arguing that last gen wasn't one long gen, it was two relatively short gens of Wii -> X360 + Kinect.

I'm intrigued by your last point.......can you extrapolate?

 

[PixalTheCat]

I am very curious on the effects of nintendo ending club nintendo. I've stopped buying anything from them ever since. May sound silly but I know I'm not alone.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I think there's a potential case for arguing that last gen wasn't one long gen, it was two relatively short gens of Wii -> X360 + Kinect.

What do you mean by this? It was a long gen and multiple factors affected how the install base grew over that gen.

 

[allan-bh]

VR will also increase the amount of consumer awareness and attention to this market segment as VR gets more to the mainstream and consoles work as gateways to the experience.

VR will be a fad for a niche.

 

[Ty4on]

Nope, I was talking about other titles (besides Splatoon) to see if they got a bump/increase or not.

Sorry if I was not clear, English is not my first language ;D

If it helps then software sales other than Splatoon were quite flat in Japan for the WiiU.
Weekly:
21.965
19.428
Splatoon is released
23.921
22.707
Source is Dengeki.

Maybe a slight bump. I didn't check other consoles because I am on mobile.

VR will be a fad for a niche.

No. Most polarizing tech in a long time though

 

[QaaQer]

VR will be a fad for a niche.

Probably, but I'm thinking there is a new arcade business opportunity here. I'm not sure why no one is targeting that as industrial VR would be leagues better than consumer grade kit.

I guess maybe it has to do with how devs expect to make money, i.e. by selling copies to individuals instead of licensing it to arcades.

 

[Three]

I think there's a potential case for arguing that last gen wasn't one long gen, it was two relatively short gens of Wii -> X360 + Kinect.

I think by looking at the PS3 line we can say it was just a long gen and it really was. It did not drop faster than previous gens because there was no new hardware to replace it until much later, it didn't get the boost that kinect gave to 360 though.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Probably, but I'm thinking there is a new arcade business opportunity here.

Oh yeh, AR and VR will be huge outside of consoles (mostly AR). It already is to some extent on Mobile.

 

[KingSnake]

I don't think VR will be a fad, but the mainstream awareness is useless if the entry point is expensive. And it will be, even for PS4 and Morpheus. I think VR will rather sell to the existing owners and not bring too many new ones.

 

[Three]

I don't think VR will be a fad, but the mainstream awareness is useless if the entry point is expensive. And it will be, even for PS4 and Morpheus. I think VR will rather sell to the existing owners and not bring too many new ones.

I think this will be the case too. The price of entry is just way too steep for mass adoption. I really hope it does take off though.

 

[Game Guru]

I wouldn't say they're at "the top." That's pushing it. Remember, there are a lot of wildly successful games like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto V.

Most of the wildly successful games nowadays are made by the same four companies... Activision, EA, Ubisoft and Take-Two. Right now WB Games is on a role and GTA5 was recently released, but it's usually Activision, EA, Ubisoft and Take-Two that take the top spots. I only said that Nintendo is A top publisher, not THE top publisher. Being fifth or sixth is a top publisher.

Licenced titles are not the same thing as shovelware.
A well known development studio and a well known IP is almost guaranteed never to be shovelware.

Lego Star Wars was never even close to being shovelware.

Yes, mobile and PC digital are the current homes of shovelware.
It's because both of those platforms are currently extremely healthy platforms to develop for with large userbases spending money on products.

If you are going to argue that licensed games are not shovelware, then shovelware didn't actually begin reappearing on consoles in North America until the Wii Era. While shovelware did appear on earlier consoles in Europe and Japan, SCEA was stringent about game requirements during the PS1 and PS2 eras which prevented the vast majority of shovelware from appearing on American shores without like being bundled with a number of other similar games in a $20 compilation. Prior to that, Nintendo and Sega were even more strict with what games publishers could release. Now you ask why would North America be so different in regards to console game shovelware? Because of the fact that shovelware helped cause the Great Video Game Crash. Shovelware literally killed the North American console game market until Nintendo and its overly restrictive policies revived the market. It took two decades for console shovelware, at least of the type that plagued both Pre-Crash consoles and the Wii, to really become a thing in North America again because of Nintendo's, Sega's and Sony's policies for that particular region.

 

[EGM1966]

Yup, it's not all down to Mobile even though that is one big factor. But we started to see signs that the industry was in decline even last gen as well, just they're now more easy to see.



Thanks mate,

I think VR is a tough one to track as we're still a year away from Morpheus launching on consoles and it really is unknown what will change before then.

As of right now I don't see it being a game changer either. It will be "big" but right now I see most of the buyers being people who already own a console, unlike Kinect where it actually bought in a lot of new buyers.

I've already outlined the reasons why I think this will be the case and I don't think we'll see a sales extension tool like Kinect again which causes sales to increase upwards. In its first year, Kinect sold just under 18 million units but I believe that Morpheus will sell more like the first Eye Toy which sold over 4 million units in its first year (worldwide).


Just found this online, it accurately demonstrates how the 360 was a big seller later into its life, unlike all previous consoles and how Kinect was a big contributor.

I believe the marketing and timing of Kinect was the crucial ingredient. The Wii had generated the interest and concept and by that point Xbox was plateauing in a very stir position.

The huge marketing push (and it was enormous) sold the device as the next stage of motion controls and the market responded.

The issue was the device flat out didn't deliver a better experience and interest died for the concept as it died for Wii. MS didn't seem to notice that while Kinect had delivered a strong boos it wasn't going to transfer forward as the market had simply lost interest in the concept (I mean the broad mass market of course).

Hence when Xbox One launched Kinect finically functioned as an constraint rather than providing any additional sales boost. The lacklustre sales of the Wii U was a warning of this but I reckon MS had gone all in by that point and stuck to plan until sales at market forced them to accept the sea change and drop Kinect.

I guess after the reveal they also had other stuff to back out first anyway.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I believe the marketing and timing of Kinect was the crucial ingredient. The Wii had generated the interest and concept and by that point Xbox was plateauing in a very stir position.

The huge marketing push (and it was enormous) sold the device as the next stage of motion controls and the market responded.

The issue was the device flat out didn't deliver a better experience and interest died for the concept as it died for Wii. MS didn't seem to notice that while Kinect had delivered a strong boos it wasn't going to transfer forward as the market had simply lost interest in the concept (I mean the broad mass market of course).

Hence when Xbox One launched Kinect finically functioned as an constraint rather than providing any additional sales boost. The lacklustre sales of the Wii U was a warning of this but I reckon MS had gone all in by that point and stuck to plan until sales at market forced them to accept the sea change and drop Kinect.

I guess after the reveal they also had other stuff to back out first anyway.

Exactly this. 100% agree with you.

It might be that we see the same thing happen with VR in gaming, but ultimately I believe it'll have the same after effects as Kinect where the broad mass market lose interest and it becomes a niche.

Augmented reality is far more likely to succeed and become the next big thing in the mass market. (non gaming)

 

[AniHawk]

Exactly this. 100% agree with you.

It might be that we see the same thing happen with VR in gaming, but ultimately I believe it'll have the same after effects as Kinect where the broad mass market lose interest and it becomes a niche.

Augmented reality is far more likely to succeed and become the next big thing in the mass market. (non gaming)

kinect was also bundled with every platform at an attractive price ($300 was it?) and usually came with a game.

not sure that's going to align for the ps4 like that.

 

[QaaQer]

Augmented reality is far more likely to succeed and become the next big thing in the mass market. (non gaming)

No doubt. I'm looking to get this feature in my next car:

That kind of stuff is worth 000s of $.


This?

Not so much.

 

[Bgamer90]

Augmented reality is far more likely to succeed and become the next big thing in the mass market. (non gaming)

No doubt. I'm looking to get this feature in my next car:

That kind of stuff is worth 000s of $.


This?

Not so much.

I completely agree.

 

[QaaQer]

kinect was also bundled with every platform at an attractive price ($300 was it?) and usually came with a game.

not sure that's going to align for the ps4 like that.

Morepheus is going to be a much harder sell to parents.

One of the most attractive features of kinect was parents being able to see joy/wonder/happiness on children's faces. You go to a birthday party, for example, see happy kids going crazy with a kinect game, and you want one. Seeing a kid with an hmd, and a nervous parent trying to make sure nothing gets ruined, well, that doesn't sound like fun.

 

[KillerMan91]

kinect was also bundled with every platform at an attractive price ($300 was it?) and usually came with a game.

not sure that's going to align for the ps4 like that.

It was $299 for Arcade bundle and $399 for Elite bundle. If I remember right depite the higher price Elite bundle sold far better. I predict $499 for PS4 Morpheus bundle (Predicting $100 price drop for PS4 this fall)

 

[allan-bh]

It was $299 for Arcade bundle and $399 for Elite bundle. If I remember right depite the higher price Elite bundle sold far better. I predict $499 for PS4 Morpheus bundle (Predicting $100 price drop for PS4 this fall)

I don't think that's true. Kinect bundle with 4GB console was by far the main SKU.

 

[AniHawk]

It was $299 for Arcade bundle and $399 for Elite bundle. If I remember right depite the higher price Elite bundle sold far better. I predict $499 for PS4 Morpheus bundle (Predicting $100 price drop for PS4 this fall)

as much of a novelty as vr is, i don't know if $500 is going to be right for it.

 

[Quake1028]

Did someone post estimated PS4 and Wii U numbers?

 

[EGM1966]

kinect was also bundled with every platform at an attractive price ($300 was it?) and usually came with a game.

not sure that's going to align for the ps4 like that.

Yeah - the VR devices coming up are going to have to create the market interest. When Kinect first launched all the heavy lifting had been done by Nintendo (right down to game concepts that worked pretty well with motion controls).

I would use Kinect to gauge how VR will do. If performance turns out similar it will be s coincidence IMO.
I expect VR To launch with less demand that Kinect unless there's a killer title like Wii Sports involved.

 

[ICPEE]

PS4 doing work

 

[KillerMan91]

I don't think that's true. Kinect bundle with 4GB console was by far the main SKU.

Oh. It seems I remembered then wrong (or I am mixing it to something)

as much of a novelty as vr is, i don't know if $500 is going to be right for it.

Oh I agree it will be probably still too much.

 

[Ty4on]

No doubt. I'm looking to get this feature in my next car:

That kind of stuff is worth 000s of $.

Heads up displays aren't expensive. Tons of family cars like the Prius and 3008 are available with it.

Augmented reality is too obvious. Like video phones in the 60s or PDAs in the 80s we will get there, just via a different route.

 

[Welfare]

Did someone post estimated PS4 and Wii U numbers?

Yes. 152k and 42k

 

[maquiladora]

No doubt. I'm looking to get this feature in my next car:

That kind of stuff is worth 000s of $.


This?

Not so much.

But I'm far more interested in what VR will bring to gaming than the commercial success of AR in applications outside of gaming.

 

[AniHawk]

Yeah - the VR devices coming up are going to have to create the market interest. When Kinect first launched all the heavy lifting had been done by Nintendo (right down to game concepts that worked pretty well with motion controls).

I would use Kinect to gauge how VR will do. If performance turns out similar it will be s coincidence IMO.
I expect VR To launch with less demand that Kinect unless there's a killer title like Wii Sports involved.

i personally think of morpheus as the sega cd to sony's genesis. tech that everyone's excited about that's too expensive for right now and too early to really sell separately. give things about 4 years and maybe we'll start to see the equivalent of what the original playstation was for disc-based games. i don't think it'll happen on dedicated video game hardware though. part of the problem with the industry is that the big companies are way too big to accept such a shift in that direction.

 

[Quake1028]

Yes. 152k and 42k

Thanks.

 

[Narpas Sword0]

No doubt. I'm looking to get this feature in my next car:

That kind of stuff is worth 000s of $.


This?

Not so much.

Cars have been doing that for 15 years and it hasn't exactly taken off in the mainstream. My cousin had one in a Cadillac circa 2000-2001.

 

[ZhugeEX]

i personally think of morpheus as the sega cd to sony's genesis. tech that everyone's excited about that's too expensive for right now and too early to really sell separately. give things about 4 years and maybe we'll start to see the equivalent of what the original playstation was for disc-based games. i don't think it'll happen on dedicated video game hardware though. part of the problem with the industry is that the big companies are way too big to accept such a shift in that direction.

What's funny is that Sony actually had plans to launch Virtual Reality for the PlayStation 1 through their Visortron product.

 

[allan-bh]

Oh. It seems I remembered then wrong (or I am mixing it to something)

Probably with standalone Xbox 360. The model with HD sold more, Kinect bundle was the inverse.

 

[panda-zebra]

Augmented reality is far more likely to succeed and become the next big thing in the mass market. (non gaming)

I completely agree.

Potentially...

But I'm far more interested in what VR will bring to gaming than the commercial success of AR in applications outside of gaming.

...but very much this. VR taking us to places and states of immersion previously impossible. It's difficult to think back to a time when gaming seemed full of so much potential, even when you go back to the times when if felt like we were getting arcade games in the home... it's all new and exciting, I've probably no right to feel so giddy at my age.

AR, for gaming, through a head-mounted display... well it looks nice when demoed in those lush open plan apartments kitted out with furniture costing 10s of thousands, but in my 3 bedroomed semi with a kid running around, toys all over the living room and all the normal day-to-day life taking place all around me, I'm not really seeing the appeal of playing Minecraft on my coffee table surrounded by all that - give me the blackout headset any day of the week.

What's funny is that Sony actually had plans to launch Virtual Reality for the PlayStation 1 through their Visortron product.

My mate had one of the few working prototypes of the Atari Jaguar VR setup from Virtuality. I never got a chance to experience it while it was in his possession and if I want to do that now I'd have to jump on a plane to Italy. Don't really think I missed much tbh.

 

[Mister Megative]

Oh yeh, AR and VR will be huge outside of consoles (mostly AR). It already is to some extent on Mobile.

Do you think there may be a possibility we're underestimating how Morpheus will perform? Everyone who's tried it sings about how incredible it is. Maybe with the right price and launch titles....?

 

[QaaQer]

Cars have been doing that for 15 years and it hasn't exactly taken off in the mainstream. My cousin had one in a Cadillac circa 2000-2001.

I'm not talking about just getting your speed on a windscreen, but dynamic information about your environment. Things like detailed nav info, lane departure warning, weather info, adaptive cruise updates, blind spot/side collision detection, speed limit changes, and pedestrian detection.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't think there's a huge need for that. I think the coolest application of AR that I've seen is the Ikea cooking table that doubles as a stove.

 

[wachie]

YJust found this online, it accurately demonstrates how the 360 was a big seller later into its life, unlike all previous consoles and how Kinect was a big contributor.

Wii: Came down as fast as it went up. Such a PoS.