Dreams-Visions
Member
Just want to remind everyone that Avatar came out on December 18, 2009.
If the movie is good, the people will go.
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The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction
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Just want to remind everyone that Avatar came out on December 18, 2009.
If the movie is good, the people will go.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
Avatar fanboy, I presume?
ryutaro's mama works the day shift in Avatar BO threads, Sculli the nights
freenudemacusers
Member
pics of hands before I commit to buying 100 tickets
Ray Wonder
Founder of the Wounded Tagless Children
Hahaha
No one is going to like my opinion but I think it may do fine in US domestic, but WW has shown they do not smile favorably on darker hued main protagonists.. Not to mention everybody and their mama can do special effects and CGI now which was a large part of the original Star Wars magic. Don't get me wrong, it will still do well.
My prediction.. 205-OW WW-1.1B
My prediction.. 205-OW WW-1.1B
Relentless 757
Member
LOL
I hope SW crushes Avatar, even though it probably won't. Fuck that shItty movie. And yes, I'm salty it's #1 in anything that isn't most pretty piece of shit ever.
CD'S BAR
Member
It's funny and telling that each of the LOTR movies opened higher than the last, while each of the Hobbit movies opened lower than the last.
massivekettle
Member
It's not even about legs at this point. Avatar's got a huge leg up due to currency fluctuations. When Avatar was released, the USD was 20-25% weaker against benchmark currencies (GBP, EUR, CAD, etc.) than it is now.
Avatar raked in $2.02bn overseas back in 2009-2010. In today's dollar, this would be about $1.6bn, meaning that Avatar basically has a $400m advantage solely due to F/X, and I am not sure that ticket prices have increased that much since (considering a large percentage of Avatar's gross came from 3D).
My prediction:
OW - US/Canada: $175m
OW - Worldwide: $550m
Total Gross - US/Canada: $700m
Total Gross: Worldwide: $1.8bn
Avatar raked in $2.02bn overseas back in 2009-2010. In today's dollar, this would be about $1.6bn, meaning that Avatar basically has a $400m advantage solely due to F/X, and I am not sure that ticket prices have increased that much since (considering a large percentage of Avatar's gross came from 3D).
My prediction:
OW - US/Canada: $175m
OW - Worldwide: $550m
Total Gross - US/Canada: $700m
Total Gross: Worldwide: $1.8bn
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
I Big JG I
Banned
It will gross 2.5 billion.
OK. I'm getting a semi just thinking about it.
Check this though: a guy called Colin Murray said that Northern Ireland wouldn't qualify for the football European Championships. They walked it in the end.
He said if they qualified he would run through Belfast with no clothes on.
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
I'm going to bookmark this post. And when Star Wars inevitably fails to gross $2.5 billion, I'm going to come back and post the same gif again. Then when you delete that original post from your bookmarks, it'll be like you're being laughed at one last time for even daring to do such a thing.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Avatar fanboy, I presume?
Naw, huge fan of the director.
Every year it's a new movie that is supposed to dethrone Jimmy C.
Don't worry though, maybe SW will "beat the shit" out of AHBUHDAR as you hope it will.
So a 1.72X domestic opening weekend multiplier (which would likely be the worst December legs in the history of ultrawide releases), and a 21.3X overseas opening weekend multiplier (most definitely the best legs of all time overseas by a huge margin for a film making >$500M).
Seems legit.
freenudemacusers
Member
Opening week 300 mil
Domestic 1.2 bil
Worldwide 2.8 bil
Summer rerelease 500 mil
Winter rerelease 300 mil
8k theatre remaster in 2020 600 mil
3D vr rerelease in 2030 500 mil
First Mars colony exclusive rerelease 2060 1.2 bil
Domestic 1.2 bil
Worldwide 2.8 bil
Summer rerelease 500 mil
Winter rerelease 300 mil
8k theatre remaster in 2020 600 mil
3D vr rerelease in 2030 500 mil
First Mars colony exclusive rerelease 2060 1.2 bil
PeskyToaster
Member
is this like the price is right? .01
ryutaro's mama
Member
Matt Damon is gonna pay $1.2 billion dollars for 1 movie ticket?
LostCaress
Member
Googol dollars
JackBauer24
Member
OW - $230 million
WW - $625 million
DG - $745 million
WWG - $1.9 billion
WW - $625 million
DG - $745 million
WWG - $1.9 billion
freenudemacusers
Member
Inflation bro! Cmon this is a box office thread!
drop this mutliplier shit. we aint using math, this is the force. this shit gonna bank like a muv
Arthr2ShdsJcksn
Banned
My local cinema has just confirmed that they will be showing Star Wars on all 12 screens for at least the first week...
This movie WILL do bonkers money, but it will need some legs to hit #1 or #2. A quality product will do quite a bit, and that's what people are betting on, but it will need to connect with mainstream (non-Star Wars fans ---yes, they exist) audiences as well.
... is a headline that seems in line with the crazy fan reactions I'm seeing today, but is far from the truth.
This movie WILL do bonkers money, but it will need some legs to hit #1 or #2. A quality product will do quite a bit, and that's what people are betting on, but it will need to connect with mainstream (non-Star Wars fans ---yes, they exist) audiences as well.
I am screen shotting this one boys
It won't beat Avatar.
People didn't go see Avatar because it was a good movie, it was the spectacle of the way the movie was made for 3D. Star Wars might beat Jurassic World's $1.6 Billion, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't. Only The Phantom Menace did $1 Billion out of all the Star Wars movies, but with this being new territory instead of a prequel -- with a new person behind it, it should have no problem hitting $1.5 Billion.
People didn't go see Avatar because it was a good movie, it was the spectacle of the way the movie was made for 3D. Star Wars might beat Jurassic World's $1.6 Billion, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't. Only The Phantom Menace did $1 Billion out of all the Star Wars movies, but with this being new territory instead of a prequel -- with a new person behind it, it should have no problem hitting $1.5 Billion.
If we are talking about the least safe records going forward, here they are in what I believe is the order of their likelihood of being broken (ignoring very specific minor records).
1) December Opening Record - This is not even in doubt
2) All of the X-Day grosses on BOM after the first 4 or 5. The last two weeks in December are the biggest box office weeks of the year. The Force Awakens is going to have some crazy daily numbers. I fully expect it to break whatever the record is for most consecutive days over $20M. This would probably give it at least a tie to the fastest to $300M and $400M records as well.
3) Largest First Day - Currently held by Deathly Hallows Pt 2. However, Star Wars gets to open at 7pm on Thursday vs midnight, and a lot of people skip that final day of school before the winter vacation anyhow. I don't think this is a guaranteed broken record, but I think it is fairly likely.
4) Largest Opening Weekend - I don't think this is locked and could easily be destroyed by snow. If the weather cooperates, I think Star Wars could manage to top $208M. I doubt it will be by much if it does, but I think that Friday could make up for any shortfall on Sat/Sun if the stars align. $300M is pure fiction though
.
5) All time domestic gross. I think this is more shaky than the opening weekend, as it would require at least a near record weekend and great second/third week legs to guarantee. Star Wars isn't going to play out like Avatar and get a close to 10x opening weekend multiplier.
If you take Return of the King's first 4 days as a baseline (to account for the modern 3.5 day weekend, and the fact that ROTK was a Wed opener), Star Wars would need about $200M opening weekend with similar legs through the holidays and January to beat Avatar.
Beyond some individual territory openings/grosses, I don't thing we are going to see records fall overseas.
1) December Opening Record - This is not even in doubt
2) All of the X-Day grosses on BOM after the first 4 or 5. The last two weeks in December are the biggest box office weeks of the year. The Force Awakens is going to have some crazy daily numbers. I fully expect it to break whatever the record is for most consecutive days over $20M. This would probably give it at least a tie to the fastest to $300M and $400M records as well.
3) Largest First Day - Currently held by Deathly Hallows Pt 2. However, Star Wars gets to open at 7pm on Thursday vs midnight, and a lot of people skip that final day of school before the winter vacation anyhow. I don't think this is a guaranteed broken record, but I think it is fairly likely.
4) Largest Opening Weekend - I don't think this is locked and could easily be destroyed by snow. If the weather cooperates, I think Star Wars could manage to top $208M. I doubt it will be by much if it does, but I think that Friday could make up for any shortfall on Sat/Sun if the stars align. $300M is pure fiction though
.
5) All time domestic gross. I think this is more shaky than the opening weekend, as it would require at least a near record weekend and great second/third week legs to guarantee. Star Wars isn't going to play out like Avatar and get a close to 10x opening weekend multiplier.
If you take Return of the King's first 4 days as a baseline (to account for the modern 3.5 day weekend, and the fact that ROTK was a Wed opener), Star Wars would need about $200M opening weekend with similar legs through the holidays and January to beat Avatar.
Beyond some individual territory openings/grosses, I don't thing we are going to see records fall overseas.
Razorback
Member
My mom is going to Star Wars 7. So does that negate your anecdotal evidence?
My anecdotal evidence speaks about the larger phenomenon that surrounded Avatar in which the novelty and the word of mouth was so strong that even people who never go to the movies had to go see it.
And I bet your mom also saw Avatar.
Matt_
World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
Gong back to my winter prediction game I predicted $165M OW, which I now think is a shade too low (or maybe I was right and everyone else's hype is getting to me)
so
OW - $180M
WWOW- $480M
Domestic - $675M
Overseas- $1.35billion
WorldWide - $2.025 Billion
Overseas could either explode or be middling, who knows.
And people predicting much over 200M Domestic OW are fools
1 large day of online movie traffic is almost irrelevant in the grand scheme of things
so
OW - $180M
WWOW- $480M
Domestic - $675M
Overseas- $1.35billion
WorldWide - $2.025 Billion
Overseas could either explode or be middling, who knows.
And people predicting much over 200M Domestic OW are fools
1 large day of online movie traffic is almost irrelevant in the grand scheme of things
Spiritreaver
Member
I predict it'll sell at least one Star Wars themed birthday cake.
I'll have my cake and eat it too. Just wait and see.
I'll have my cake and eat it too. Just wait and see.
Arthr2ShdsJcksn
Banned
We're never gonna beat Titanic. No one can.
Only James Cameron can beat James Cameron films that James Cameron wants to beat.
Are the few pessimist here aware how much the international market has grown since Phantom Menace? Do you really think Furious 7 did 1.5 billion mostly based on US?
The average movie ticket in 1999 was 5 dollars, today its 8-10, give or take. Add in the massive international market, and generations of people who have seen Star Wars and your are looking at 1.5 billion easily. If the movie is good and gets a positive reaction then it will go even farther than that.
The average movie ticket in 1999 was 5 dollars, today its 8-10, give or take. Add in the massive international market, and generations of people who have seen Star Wars and your are looking at 1.5 billion easily. If the movie is good and gets a positive reaction then it will go even farther than that.
Chezzymann
Member
Eventually inflation and expanding overseas markets will beat it. I bet the regular gross for big movies 10 years or so from now will be 2 billion.
Overseas largely depends on China, which largely depends on how generous the Chinese government feel regarding its release date and duration. With the foreign currency market being where it is, I don't think Star Wars has any real shot at going much higher $1B overseas outside of China. Even that would be way beyond anything we have seen in recent years outside of Avatar. Deathly Hallows Pt 2 would probably be closer to $800M overseas (minus China) in today's market. Harry Potter was quite a bit bigger than Star Wars overseas last decade.
Titanic was already beaten. That's his point.
Chezzymann
Member
Oh, I thought he meant all the big movies are gonna be stuck at breaking the #3 record and never getting past #2 and by "no on can" he meant only james Cameron can beat it lol
Wrongo, he was referencing a quote by George Lucas.
Arthr2ShdsJcksn
Banned
Poor George. If only he had spent more time crafting good prequels instead of chasing Titanic and mispronouncing Gungans.
As to the BO predictions. I already gave mine on the first page, but this hype train has taken over my office. One of my co-workers, an older man, has already picked up tickets to two screenings. We're planning an IT-Department field trip to see the movie as well. So I'll be contributing at least two tickets myself, and I'm not even that big of a Star Wars fan.
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