He gained 2 points. 26% (Oct) -> 28% (Nov)
my bad, I looked wrong. 26 -> 28 gotcha.
the guy clearly appeals to a decent group of people. It'll be interesting to see if they're outliers or if he'll gain additional support as people drop out.
He gained 2 points. 26% (Oct) -> 28% (Nov)
Sorry should have posted where I got th elink that has a little more updated:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-doomed-andor-invincible/
In his opinion Trumps odd double after each stage, so probably in the double digits according to him.
My own view is that in the end Trump will have a 50/50 at getting the nomination. We'd really have to see how big the Anti-Trump crowd is at the end of it all, once that pack shakes out a little.
Direct pandering to the GOP base of course.How the fuck did Cruz go up?
Personally I think Trump is going to say something that even the crazies can't ignore which will lose him the nomination
If anything was going to do it, it would be him going full Hitler.
He's completely out of his mind if he thinks the Carson holdouts will go to someone like Rubio. Cruz maybe, but not Bush or Rubio. Trump is the safe bet at this point and anyone arguing against it is doing so without enough data or logic to back it up.
It's kinda funny how we all bitch about Super PAC's running the elections and how we don't have any power.
And the person with the largest sum of money has been DOA.
Funny how you make a claim about the people that have a differing opinion from your own are doing so without data or logic while you are making claims without data or logic.
Still waiting on that Rubio surge. I feel Trump/Carson/Cruz/basically every Republican candidate are too radical to get the nom.
Cruz would never win the general election.
Yea I thought so to but clearly he's still preaching to his own choir. My guess is he'll change his tone on immigration or something along those lines
Is Cruz really worse than Carson, though? I mean, he's more smarmy, for sure, but is he really more evil? They both seem equally evil, just with different mannerisms. Cruz is a far-smarter politician. I guess he's more dangerous, but not more evil, to me.
None of these candidates can win a general election, without a body being found in Hillary's trunk, or something of that magnitude.
Carson is terrifying because he's an idiot. Cruz is terrifying because he's not.
None of these candidates can win a general election, without a body being found in Hillary's trunk, or something of that magnitude.
Not to mention this:Currently saying stuff like:
@NateSilver538 - About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump's getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?
natesilver538 said:"TRUMP LEADING POLLS" is an anagram for "GIN'D UP TROLL SAMPLE"
Trump crushes Hilary in a general election, mark my words.
Bernie wins against Trump.
Nate Silver doubling down. Cant wait to see his blog post when Trump gets the nomination.
Trump has already made it past stage 2 of Silver's 6 Stages of Doom article.
Trump crushes Hilary in a general election, mark my words.
Bernie wins against Trump.
Trump crushes Hilary in a general election, mark my words.
Bernie wins against Trump.
Trump crushes Hilary in a general election, mark my words.
Bernie wins against Trump.
Nate Silver doubling down. Cant wait to see his blog post when Trump gets the nomination.
Trump has already made it past stage 2 of Silver's 6 Stages of Doom article.
It'll be hard to win in the general election, when you lose 90% of 13% of the population (blacks) and 80% of 17% of the population (Hispanics). Which swing states is Trump going to win over Hillary, or which blue states is he going to take back?
Sorry, I don't see it. It looks as though Trump will get the nomination at this point, but what's his realistic path to the presidency?
Yeah. I mean, there was a lot of fretting from liberals for a whole now about how SuperPACs would ruin democracy but Mitt Romney lost and Jeb Bush is a complete flop.
I mean, money in politics is still a major issue, but honestly it's way more harmful on the legislator side of things than the President Election due to the simple fact of voter turnout.
If people actually voted money wouldn't be as much of an issue.
It'll be hard to win in the general election, when you lose 90% of 13% of the population (blacks) and 80% of 17% of the population (Hispanics). Which swing states is Trump going to win over Hillary, or which blue states is he going to take back?
Sorry, I don't see it. It looks as though Trump will get the nomination at this point, but what's his realistic path to the presidency?
I think McGovern tried this.I like living in a dream world where Bernie is actually able to rally the younger generations to produce the highest voter turnout ever, slaughtering any other candidate in the popular vote purely due to a broader range of the USA's population being represented.
I mean, the Electoral College is a different story, but still...
A man can dream.
Trump gets Virginia, Florida, New Mexico, Colordo, Neveda, PA, Ohio and New Hampshire against Hillary.
Hugh upset.
Bernie gets PA, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia against Trump.
I don't have a electoral count in front of me so I don't know if that puts Bernie in the lead.
Do people really think Trump - even a modified post nomination sanitised version - will get any independents or swing voters?
You could put a poo throwing monkey as the Dem nomination and it would win against Trump.
Even if young people voted as much as older that is impossible. Hillary has the over 30 vote on lockdown, a landslide level of support among them in the Democratic primary electorate. And there is far far far more of them than the 18-29 age group.I like living in a dream world where Bernie is actually able to rally the younger generations to produce the highest voter turnout ever, slaughtering any other candidate in the popular vote purely due to a broader range of the USA's population being represented.
I mean, the Electoral College is a different story, but still...
A man can dream.
Okay, as someone who knows fuck all about politics, is trump really going to get the nomination? He's been killing it in the polls for months now, but I've read that doesn't really matter in regards to getting the nomination? I don't know, but I'm fascinated by this 2016 race.
Also, what the hell has Cruz done to gain so much?
Trump and Cruz are not stupid. I mean, they make dumb moves from time to time, but they are both very smart. They are doing exactly what is needed to appeal to dumb voters.
The real stupid is Jeb. When you have the establishment support, a gazillion dollars and a team of advisers that have won numerous elections and still barely surviving, you have to be a grade A moron.
We just started Stage 2, actually. Stage 3 doesn't start until February.
I still don't think there's anything wrong with his argument. People are making too much of polls months before the first primaries, while Nate is using more points of evidence and historical precedence. Nothing about his poll numbers indicates that he is going to win a substantial number of primaries.
Yeah, looking over Silver's Twitter it's easy to go "lol dat salt" and think he is in denial, but if you actually read the article you'll see that Silver is almost certainly right about Trump. His polling numbers at this point are largely meaningless, as history has shown.
You're using demographics to argue against Bernie supporters, and that shit don't fly. I've donated to his campaign, but people need to be realistic about how turbulent both the nomination and (unlikely) general election will be for his campaign.
Trump gets Virginia, Florida, New Mexico, Colordo, Neveda, PA, Ohio and New Hampshire against Hillary.
Hugh upset.
Bernie gets PA, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia against Trump.
I don't have a electoral count in front of me so I don't know if that puts Bernie in the lead.
We just started Stage 2, actually. Stage 3 doesn't start until February.
I still don't think there's anything wrong with his argument. People are making too much of polls months before the first primaries, while Nate is using more points of evidence and historical precedence. Nothing about his poll numbers indicates that he is going to win a substantial number of primaries.
You're using demographics to argue against Bernie supporters, and that shit don't fly. I've donated to his campaign, but people need to be realistic about how turbulent both the nomination and (unlikely) general election will be for his campaign.
I agree, we've seen it time and time again where a candidate comes out of nowhere and even does well in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries but completely bombs after that. If Trump wins Iowa I would imagine you might even get more moderates republicans to vote in the primaries to nominate to vote against him
How does Trump win New Mexico with his historically low favorability with Hispanic voters?
I'm betting that Trump will poll overwhelmingly more favorably with whites than Clinton does. That's why states like Colorado, PA, and Ohio will go to Trump vs Clinton.
In my personal opinion, being aware that the shit you're saying is harmful and ridiculous just so you can be in good company with earnest idiots doesn't make you any less stupid.