Sammy Samusu
Member
Update:
Amazon: out of stock again, new shipment on Dec 16.
Yodobashi: still out of stock.
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Media Create Sales: Week 48, 2015 (Nov 23 - Nov 29)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Update:
Amazon: out of stock again, new shipment on Dec 16.
Yodobashi: still out of stock.
DarkLordMalik
Member
This is a reasonable comment related to the game. I have no idea where the comparison with BD even came from considering how BD was marketed as a big exclusive JRPG in West for 3DS and I don't see the same thing for Setsuna on PS4/Vita. Not even Nintendo's magic marketing can try to market it as a Bravely Default type game.Setsuna has been announced at E3 yes, with... 3 artworks (!). Japan probably couldn't sleep from excitation that nightSince the announcement of the game, all we have is basically a 1:30 trailer and the official website has been updated one time, to introduce the third and fourth character. Compared to BD, it's a complete niche and stealth project. We will see how Square Enix intend to promote the game until February, but we know already it's not playable on Jump Festa this december, and no special stage either.
Setsuna is like a small-scale project that will be exclusive to digital in the West and it is getting a retail release in Japan just for the heck of it. So expectations for Setsuna in Japan? A modest expectation should be around 30-40k FW for PS4/Vita and maybe it can have enough legs, if the WOM is good, to pass 100k LTD in Japan on both platforms.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Well according to Vena FE will do a million on Wii U; Minecraft will do a biklion!
100K is where I see it if there's no Nintendo themed items included, could be more if so.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Yeah BD got quite the marketing campaign behind it, even in the West. Its a small scale project financially but I think there's desire to make this into a franchise. A JRPG franchise thats a homage to old SE titles than fans have wanted.
30-40k seems low in my opinion. Maybe I just expect more because its SE and they have a certain hold with JRPG fans.
Eolz
Member
About 120-150k first two weeks, but I think it'll be a pretty good evergreen title (relatively to WiiU obviously). I can see it climbing to at least 350k LTD when all is said and done.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Like I said, Setsuna is going to be a digital only release in the West. I see a lot of similarity between Setsuna and Child of Light in term of scope. Small-scale projects that are a safe bet and don't have high expectations tied with them.
Meh.
I honestly expect about 100k from the WiiU/Minecraft. If it is packaged or advertised in some good way with SMM (perhaps, as I mentioned, a builders bundle... positioned directly against DQB while adding DQ skins to the WiiU Minecraft) I could see it actually doing a fair bit more than that.
Moor-Angol
Banned
If my children would ask me for Minecraft I'd like to spend 22,000yen instead of 35,000yen, and the former let you to play it everywhere, the latter just at home.
There should be some reasons why Minecraft is top seller on Vita and not on XBO,360,PS3 and PS4...
100K - 150K. Exactly the figures you were thinking it'd do.
Yes, this is my stance as well. I was simply comparing consoles, I think the Vita offers the superior consumer product.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I don't think folks are really asking whether there would be new Wii U owners because of Minecraft. If anything, it's more that the Wii U already has a larger kid friendly audience of any home console (as in it actually has one to begin with lol), so that could lead to some sales of Minecraft Wii U, that's all.
Minecraft Wii U has off-tv play.
Not all kids in Japan own a Vita. Wii U Minecraft I'd think will end up being one of the top selling 3rd-party games on the Wii U and I'm not talking strictly Japan. Considering the laughable amounts 3rd Parties sell on the Wii U it won't take much to make it the top selling 3rd party game.
I don't even know if anything other than Hyrule Warriors selling more than a million and that's pretty much a Nintendo owned property. While I'd venture to guess that there hasn't been many games that sold more than 500K. That's not just because of the audience size, realistically there are few 3rd party games that are appealing to purchase on a Wii U. Minecraft has certain features that might make it an attractive purchase for an existing owner. I think it depends on integration with the gamepad - such outside of off-tv play hasn't been announced but if there is it might be a reason to buy it.
I'd say that lifetime Minecraft can do over 200K in Japan and I think it will do quite well elsewhere. The only reason Microsoft isn't publishing it on the 3DS is because of the 3DS limitation but the next handheld device Nintendo releases a Minecraft port will be there at launch, they might be working on it as we speak.
Moor-Angol
Banned
so with off screen play the kid can go to a friend and playing together?
not all kids have Vita but no other system is cheaper than Vita, and parents care about money nowadays
last but not least, only digital
japanese prefer retail, when Minecraft was only retail on PS3 a lot of people bought the US version while shops where highlighting japanese text was available
Minecraft on Vita took off when retail was released, i dont remember how long after digital version, but iirc retail numbers are larger than digital ones
anyway in the next weeks we'll see the impact in WiiU sales and the Vita version, which is losing positions actually on Amazon, maybe due to yesterday announcement?
We're in holiday season. It's very possible that the MHX stock problems last until mid-january.
I don't know for sure, you might turn out right.
I just don't see how Minecraft doesn't sell on any system it releases. It just does it over time, slowly... So 200K on the Wii U for Japan doesn't seem impossible task.
Definitely if it doesn't get a physical release in Japan it might effect it but I'd still venture about 10K a month. If there is anything NPD/Media Create has taught me is never doubt Minecraft
I think the comparison comes from Setsuna being the next project from the Bravely producer and both being evocative retro RPGs with original IPs and low budgets. Bravely had much lower expectations than what it ended up selling too, so it and Setsuna having similar targets might not be that crazy.
Moor-Angol
Banned
yeah and there should also been some n3DS "bundles" with themed shells (AC is the first one which comes up in my mind)
DarkLordMalik
Member
I have said the same. It reminds me of Child of Light, and that one also got a retail release, no?
What do you think about these expectations? Are they 100k FW and 200k LTD? Even the Gust games struggle to reach 200k and I haven't seen any of the games open more than 100k, like the predictions with Setsuna.sörine;188358977 said:
I have said again, Setsuna will sell perfectly fine if it can do 30-40k first week and have a LTD of 100k. These are not low expectations but they are a far cry from the unrealistic expectations some people are setting in this thread expecting to sell as good as Bravely Default with 100k FW and 200k LTD.
Jon Carter
Member
Including the eventual physical release, right? 400k+ when all is said and done and I would think it did great (I would have had higher expectations had the game come out earlier in the Wii U's lifespan). 300k would be the minimum for me to think it genuinely did good. Below that and at best it's just all right.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Just add Splatoon in Minecraft and it might even do decently at 200k.
Pennywise83
Banned
30-40k FW for Setsuna would be terrible; the split would be something like 10-15k on PS4 and 25-30k on PSV... Yeesh. It's a small-scale project, and this is quite evident, but remember that SQEX created a development team for the purpose of developing games like Setsuna - opposite to outsourcing, which is less expensive, in particular when the team doesn't have a big reputation, such as Silicon Studio. I don't believe that SQEX built a team solely to develop sub-100k games, even if they can get a reputation of being old-school jRPG in the vein of Chrono Trigger and the like.
Project Setsuna entry price will be 5,184 yen at retail, which is lower that the average retail price, but considerably higher than digital games which saw a retail release, such as Child of Light (which price was 2,678 yen). This signals SQEX's intention of focusing on the retail side, being a full-fledged game and not an half-baked experience whic would fit more a digital environment.
SQEX and Gust have completely different objectives - the latter has been living for years by making sub-130k games; SQEX would like to impose itself as the jRPG company on PS4/V and expectations should be accordingly set - we discussed with Nirolak about the fact that SQEX cannot aim at sub-100k results (which would translate in what, 250-300k worldwide?) in the retail market because opportunity costs are too high and the company would be better off in developing mobile games instead. Indeed, SQEX has almost completely eliminated those small-sized games on dedicated devices because they were a burden more than an opportunity.
Finally, BD sold 144k FW / 290k LTD. Expectations for Setsuna should be lower, but 200k might be achievable. Here it seems BD got a lot of marketing push but this is just factually incorrect (people from Japan didn't saw much promotion); GAF's expectations for the first three weeks were around 120k units - the game sold 144k FW and in its third week was already past 200k units. SQEX didn't promote BD much, and I remember people talking about how the game was advertised mainly by the development team through a Twitter profile and the demos / live-streaming. After the presentation during a Nintendo event, the game got some Direct trailer and the demos - by presenting Setsuna during E3 (even if at an embryonic stage), I thought SQEX had some kind of expectation, otherwise why even bother? SQEX didn't even think BD could have sold in Western markets, hence Nintendo distributing.
Since SE didn't even care localizing BD at first and barely pushed it in Japan, if it pushed at all, it is an even smaller project with that logic.
They showed how much they cared for Bravely with its sequel in the end.
1st Course
Member
Setsuna retail release is WW or Japan only?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I think it has a good chance of being WW retail but iirc only JP retail has been confirmed.
Child of Light eventually did well enough to get a late physical release didn't it? It had good legs.
EDIT: Ugh I'm stupid and scrolled right past that post, never mind me. Sorry about that.
But I don't see the same happening for a JRPG for some reason.
Pennywise83
Banned
It would be incredible if MHX ends up selling on par with MH4 and more than MH4G.
I understand why the shortages are happening but after following Japanese sales and trends for so many years it still boggles my mind how frequently its the case with big releases. Always makes me wonder how much some of the bigger releases could have sold week 1 if stock wasnt an issue.
Maybe is a deliberate measure for increase digital sales, which is more profitable for the publishers.
DarkLordMalik
Member
We have yet to see any actual gameplay footage at a major conference for Setsuna. The game was announced in a short blurb by the SE president at their own E3 conference and all they showed was an artwork. It wasn't even shown at Sony's TGS conference AFAIK and the first gameplay that we got was from the livestream of the game on Nico Nico. SE also released a trailer of the game around TGS but aside from that, they have been pretty silent for a game that is going to be released in early 2016.
If you are trying to make a point saying that by showing at E3, they had high expectations. I am sorry but this is not how it works. They didn't even give it a bigger focus like I have said. It should be interesting to see what kind of push it gets at the Jump Festa event.
You just described the popularity of Bravely Default. I had no idea that the game was also marketed in Japan by Nintendo to some extent. If you said that they showed it in Direct for Japan and released "demos", then it definitely helped the sales. Meanwhile we have yet to see the same push for a game like Setsuna.
If you think that they made the new studio just for Setsuna and will determine its future based on the single game alone, you are wrong. Setsuna is also being developed on Unity Game Engine, which basically confirms what I said: It will be a low-cost, low-expectations game that is being made to determine the audience's interest in similar type of games. It will also give the studio an experience in developing games so you can call it a learning experience for Tokyo RPG Factory studio of Square Enix.
I also expect to see a much bigger scoped game from them if Setsuna proves to be a cult and commercial hit. But as it stands, they are fairly cautious with their first game, which is understandable.
If SE didn't care, why did they even develop the sequel? Or release the "For The Sequel" re-release for the original.
Nevertheless, I am still baffled by how SE treated a franchise like Bravely Default. It doesn't make any sense to me at all.
MHX had similar preorders with MH4G but ended having much bigger demand. I don't see why retailers should change shipment schedule comparing to 4G or expect bigger sales this time when MH4G never faced stock problems.
MH4 faced big supply problems for its first weeks but when Capcom gave a big shipment in preparation for December it ended overstocked.
And it's not like you can push a button and print immediately hundreds of thousands of copies
Not all potential retail sales convert to actual digital sales so I don't really buy that hypothesis although I'm sure it has happened at some point.
Moor-Angol
Banned
if retail a publisher has to pay fees for cartridges, or this is just something that happened until N64 times?
if so, digital might be more profitable for them
Moor-Angol
Banned
you should also consider how much space shops can offer to a certain title, shops in Japan ain't as big as they are in the western countries
Also I feel that the problem affects more on carts than optical supports
As stated i understand why stock problems exists, it still wonder how high first week sales could be if there would be enough stock.
Yeah those are all factors, at least with download cards and digital sales the market can compensate for less shelve space for bigger games.
That's not my point. The point is not every potential retail purchaser will buy the digital equivalent.
Sammy Samusu
Member
You thought wrong.
Are you talking about Bravely Default or Setsuna?
Under Square Enix's new CEO's marching orders, Setsuna is planned to be a new franchise and is also implied to be the new standard amount of money they would want to invest in a new IP: http://www.siliconera.com/2015/07/2...a-has-sadness-as-a-theme/#j4j2CX5WcopLIKOi.99
They seemed to follow through on this in that when he took over, he mass canceled more expensive New IPs both in Japan and the West.
In other news, don't hold your breath for Square Enix ever having a new major non-mobile IP again.
Moor-Angol
Banned
that's natural in a country which is still loyal to retail
there are a lot of people which play the game and once finished they resell it; if you can take a look at book-off you will see plenty of copies of MH4 and MH4G
when you go digital you already know that you won't sell your copy
of course actual digital sales for MHX are impressive, but as someone pointed out it might be a "strategy" made by Capcom, but how worth would it be ?
I mean, we are talking about 200k digital sales and 2mln retail, correct? so digital are just 10%
or it would be the "nintendo winter holidays strategy" : small weekly restocks for big titles usually released in the second half of November to keep the hype until week 50/52
theprodigy
Member
Bravely Default, aka the series Square Enix seems determined to abandon
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Was referring to Setsuna.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Hm... now if that's true across the board in Japan (older user part), that'd make things real interesting.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Oh ok then.