30-40k FW for Setsuna would be terrible; the split would be something like 10-15k on PS4 and 25-30k on PSV... Yeesh. It's a small-scale project, and this is quite evident, but remember that SQEX created a development team for the purpose of developing games like Setsuna - opposite to outsourcing, which is less expensive, in particular when the team doesn't have a big reputation, such as Silicon Studio. I don't believe that SQEX built a team solely to develop sub-100k games, even if they can get a reputation of being old-school jRPG in the vein of Chrono Trigger and the like.
Project Setsuna entry price will be 5,184 yen at retail, which is lower that the average retail price, but considerably higher than digital games which saw a retail release, such as Child of Light (which price was 2,678 yen). This signals SQEX's intention of focusing on the retail side, being a full-fledged game and not an half-baked experience whic would fit more a digital environment.
SQEX and Gust have completely different objectives - the latter has been living for years by making sub-130k games; SQEX would like to impose itself as the jRPG company on PS4/V and expectations should be accordingly set - we discussed with Nirolak about the fact that SQEX cannot aim at sub-100k results (which would translate in what, 250-300k worldwide?) in the retail market because opportunity costs are too high and the company would be better off in developing mobile games instead. Indeed, SQEX has almost completely eliminated those small-sized games on dedicated devices because they were a burden more than an opportunity.
Finally, BD sold 144k FW / 290k LTD. Expectations for Setsuna should be lower, but 200k might be achievable. Here it seems BD got a lot of marketing push but this is just factually incorrect (people from Japan didn't saw
much promotion); GAF's expectations for the first three weeks were around 120k units - the game sold 144k FW and in its third week was already past 200k units. SQEX didn't promote BD much, and I remember people talking about how the game was advertised mainly by the development team through a Twitter profile and the demos / live-streaming. After the presentation during a Nintendo event, the game got some Direct trailer and the demos - by presenting Setsuna during E3 (even if at an embryonic stage), I thought SQEX had some kind of expectation, otherwise why even bother? SQEX didn't even think BD could have sold in Western markets, hence Nintendo distributing.