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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
If that were the result in NH, then Trump would get 20 delegates, Rubio would get 7, and there would be 3 unpledged (presumably to go to Rubio). It would immediately become a Trump-Rubio race.

EDIT: Cruz isn't that low compared to the other NH polls; he's high in Iowa, not NH.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Veritigo_X said:
New CNN/WMUR NH poll (11/30 - 12/7)

Trump 32% (+6)
Rubio 14% (+5)
Christie 9% (+4)
Bush 8% (-1)
Kasich 7% (+1)
Cruz 6% (+1)
Carson 5% (-3)
Fiorina 5% (-11)

That Christie surge.

Edit: Their last poll was from September if you were wondering about Fiorina.
Click to expand...

Trump man. Trump.

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) “Businessman Donald Trump?” (READ IF
NECESSARY) "Would you say you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him or don’t you
know enough about him to say?"
June Sept Dec
2015 2015 2015
FAVORABLE 38% 55% 57%
NEITHER FAV. OR UNFAV. – VOLUNTEERED 11% 7% 6%
UNFAVORABLE 48% 38% 36%
DK / NEVER HEAR 4% 0% 1%
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Crab said:
If that were the result in NH, then Trump would get 20 delegates, Rubio would get 7, and there would be 3 unpledged (presumably to go to Rubio). It would immediately become a Trump-Rubio race.

EDIT: Cruz isn't that low compared to the other NH polls; he's high in Iowa, not NH.
Click to expand...

Here are cruz's previous 7 poll numbers in NH prior to this one.
13, 9, 10, 11, 9, 8, 12

Every other poll was from Halloween and prior (the last one, 12, was 11/11).

So yeah, 6 does look out of place in that group. His average is just above 10 on HuffPo before this poll. His number looks like an outlier here.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Rubio is the only one with decent favorable numbers in that poll, 61-23

Also, only 18% in that poll have definitely decided who they are voting for. Lots of room for movement
 
S

Sianos

Member
re: trump |OT| proposals

Hey, people used complain that prominent conservative beliefs weren't given enough exposure on GAF. People used to accuse GAF of being a liberal hivemind that just ignored conservatives. Well, we gave those people what they wanted and now there are tons of threads to discuss conservative beliefs and their likely nominee. To make a Trump |OT| would be to shove all of the Republicans into a community thread, and that's not fair. Their platform should be shared and discussed just like the Democratic platform - they deserve it.

Unless, of course, what they really meant was they wanted a "safe space" free from criticism where everyone was forced to be "politically correct" and not criticize obvious inconsistencies and flaws in a party platform that is being dragged towards fundamentalism and fascism.

Either way, I don't think a Trump |OT| would be good for discussion.
 
A

AnotherDayAnotherDollar

Banned
Makai said:
Sanders said he won't run as an independent.

Mike Bloomberg migh jump in, though. lol
Click to expand...

Trump has also said he won't run as an independent.

QuiteWhittle said:
Sanders would just destroy any chance for an easy liberal win and lose his committee placements in the senate and any allies and friends he's made as a member of the Democratic caucus for 20 years. There's a reason he's already ruled a third-party run out, he just has nothing to gain.
Click to expand...

Aren't people saying Sanders is too old and whatnot? Might as well go all out, run as an independent and just retire if he doesn't win it. Work in his own community during his free time if he wants to keep helping people and pushing his policies. Then all that you just said about making allies and whatnot won't matter.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
Makai said:
Retromelon, are you still hoping that Ben pulls out of 4th place or do you want to go ahead and get your avatar bet over with?
Click to expand...

M2HeORN.png
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Black Mamba said:
Here are cruz's previous 7 poll numbers in NH prior to this one.
13, 9, 10, 11, 9, 8, 12

Every other poll was from Halloween and prior (the last one, 12, was 11/11).

So yeah, 6 does look out of place in that group. His average is just above 10 on HuffPo before this poll. His number looks like an outlier here.
Click to expand...

I'd guess from that his numbers are 9, as then every result bar 13 fits in the +/- 3.2% margin of error. If it is 9, he still misses out on any NH delegates (although only just).
 
M

Makai

Member
The whole basis of the bet is that I thought the hammer/stabbing defense would doom him. It clearly has and he's not coming back.
 
U

User 406

Banned
AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:
Trump has also said he won't run as an independent.

Aren't people saying Sanders is too old and whatnot? Might as well go all out, run as an independent and just retire if he doesn't win it. Work in his own community during his free time if he wants to keep helping people and pushing his policies. Then all that you just said about making allies and whatnot won't matter.
Click to expand...

Trump is a goddamn liar, and Bernie explicitly said he wouldn't run because he did not want to be a spoiler and help the Republicans win. He's a smart guy, and he actually does care about the future of the country, so he's not going to do something that dangerous.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Cruz is Cruz Party. Of course he's Tea Party, too. My only point is that Rubio is also Tea Party. He rode the Tea Party, described himself as Tea Party in 2010. He's not Establishment like Jeb!

The difference is the Establishment is fine with Rubio because he's willing to play ball with them to get what he wants (VP or Presidency) whereas Cruz makes everything about the cult of Cruz.
Click to expand...

Hmhm, i see your point. It's a good one. What i'm considering is that, assuming a likely Rubio defeat, Cruz, being the bastard that he is, wouldn't hesitate to throw the man under a bus as soon as he saw any advantage to it, pointing out that his weak position in immigration + ties to bush and acceptance from the establishment are clear indicators that he's nothing more than a loser TINO. Is what i'd call a narrative that could resonate with the anti-establishment base.

Obviously this is all projection, but that's the fun thing about Cruz. We know the creature is smart, so backstabbings like this can be considered.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
So, I am kind of curious about the rationale behind the general election appeal or lack thereof of the Democratic contenders. I did sort of ask earlier in the previous thread, but don't think there was a response. The potential pitfalls of a Sanders GE are frankly kind of plain to see, some of them were spelled out by PhoenixDark. If one points to GE polling it's under the backdrop of him being barely/not mentioned by the GOP candidates let alone is any oppo being done and released on him. While from memory there are already attack ads running against Clinton.

Is the premise that the more people know him, the more people like him; the more people know and like him, the more will vote for him. And this number is larger than whatever Clinton can achieve?

Is it the "enthusiasm" gap, where Clinton apparently inspires no enthusiasm from the Democratic electorate, despite leading it?
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
It's a good thing cerium keeps making more. This is seriously getting ridiculous.
Click to expand...

I'm afraid it will reach the point where enough people get sick of it and all the news get shunted in to a Donald Trump |OT| that no one reads. So hopefully people don't go overboard. Some of those threads probably didn't really need to be posted.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
EskimoJoe said:
I'm afraid it will reach the point where enough people get sick of it and all the news get shunted in to a Donald Trump |OT| that no one reads. So hopefully people don't go overboard. Some of those threads probably didn't really need to be posted.
Click to expand...

Back in June GAF was laughing at the thought of a Trump campaign as well as a Trump Presidency."Trump would be the least dangerous of all the R candidates" they said. "Trump does not believe in anything he is saying about Mexicans" they said. "Trump is a joke" they said.

How seven months changes things.
 
M

Makai

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Back in June GAF was laughing at the thought of a Trump campaign as well as a Trump Presidency."Trump would be the least dangerous of all the R candidates" they said. "Trump does not believe in anything he is saying about Mexicans" they said. "Trump is a joke" they said.

How seven months changes things.
Click to expand...
I was one of them. Now, I think he is completely serious. But I still think the Bible adoration is a guise.
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
Trump Yes shares for the nomination and for NH are both pretty cheap right now. There's also a market for whether he'll average 29% or higher in RCP at midnight Dec 31. I don't like to mess with the RCP poll markets because they're entirely contingent on when RCP drops older polls out of their moving average, and they don't have any set policies for when they'll do this. But if you think he's likely to average 29+ over the next 3 weeks, go for it.

The one downside is that the prices of his Yes shares have been stuck in the same general ballpark for a month in spite of the polling. People are still in disbelief over there. So market timing hasn't really worked. But if you really think he's going to win this thing, or New Hampshire, now's the time to go long.

There's also a market for whether or not Trump will win a single primary. I'm all in on that one.
 
J

j_k_redtail

Member
Basileus777 said:
What does this even mean? How can he do this in December?
Click to expand...

Ignatz Mouse said:
Why? He's headed into the nomination. He probably won't have to.

This talk is just coded threats to keep them from going the brokered convention route.
Click to expand...

Trump seems to be arguing that if the GOP abuses him he'll run as an independent and take their votes. I don't completely buy that, because:

1 - Trump's coded threats are unreliable. A week ago he told us he wouldn't show up to the CNN debate unless they paid $5 million to someone? They called his bluff. And he'll be at the debate on the 15th.
2 - Voters' threats are unreliable. Remember Hillary's PUMA faction in 2008 - "we'll vote for McCain over Obama?" They fell in line eventually.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Back in June GAF was laughing at the thought of a Trump campaign as well as a Trump Presidency."Trump would be the least dangerous of all the R candidates" they said. "Trump does not believe in anything he is saying about Mexicans" they said. "Trump is a joke" they said.

How seven months changes things.
Click to expand...

If you want a laugh, go to the old PoliGAF threads in the OP and search through them for mentions of Trump. Back when he was just a birther troll who threatened to run but always backed out.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
StopMakingSense said:
Ryan must be pretty pissed he's going to be left the highest profile leader in the smoldering ruins of the republican party.
Click to expand...
Yup. If he had his way, he would be exactly what Trump, Cruz etc. are now - the bomb-thrower from the sidelines who gets to fundraise on saying ridiculous crap without any of his ideas actually having a chance at being implemented. Similar to how Rubio ran as a teabagger, now they're the "moderates" because they weren't extreme enough for the fringiest of the fringe of the party, and the true moderates are gone or stay silent for fear of retribution at the ballot box.
 
M

Makai

Member
Jack Remington said:
Trump Yes shares for the nomination and for NH are both pretty cheap right now. There's also a market for whether he'll average 29% or higher in RCP at midnight Dec 31. I don't like to mess with the RCP poll markets because they're entirely contingent on when RCP drops older polls out of their moving average, and they don't have any set policies for when they'll do this. But if you think he's likely to average 29+ over the next 3 weeks, go for it.

The one downside is that the prices of his Yes shares have been stuck in the same general ballpark for a month in spite of the polling. People are still in disbelief over there. So market timing hasn't really worked. But if you really think he's going to win this thing, or New Hampshire, now's the time to go long.

There's also a market for whether or not Trump will win a single primary. I'm all in on that one.
Click to expand...
Alright, what the hay. I'll join in. I have no illusions that I'll make any money in this, but I'll give it a go for fun.

I've got $56 on nominee Trump and $33 on indie Trump.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
j_k_redtail said:
Trump seems to be arguing that if the GOP abuses him he'll run as an independent and take their votes. I don't completely buy that, because:

1 - Trump's coded threats are unreliable. A week ago he told us he wouldn't show up to the CNN debate unless they paid $5 million to someone? They called his bluff. And he'll be at the debate on the 15th.
2 - Voters' threats are unreliable. Remember Hillary's PUMA faction in 2008 - "we'll vote for McCain over Obama?" They fell in line eventually.
Click to expand...

So what? It's a matter of leverage. He has more as a republican threatening an independent run than just splitting off now. It's one of hhe reasons I think he's in it to win it. If this was a pure ego thing he could have split off already, done his damage to the GOP and laughed and pointed as they squirm. He won't lose that leverage until they call him on his bluff and attack. At which point, he can follow through or try and rise out his initial momentum.
 
M

Makai

Member
This feels like arbitrage. Paul has met the requirements to make the CNN debate and yet he's at 10% Yes on Predictit.

I expect this to blow up in my face.
 
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