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[HideyoshiJP]

Just a worthwhile note: These polls were conducted BEFORE his latest Muslim Ban rant.

I was curious about this. His remarks many were considering offensive didn't bother me, and despite the fact that it's Trump (and therefore comes with a huge grain of salt), he'd said things I (along with many others) like to hear. This, on the other hand, goes against the constitution of the United States, one of those things the Tea Party folks supposedly love as long as it's convenient for them. You can't say the rules apply to one group of people and not the other, especially when you're dealing with the bill of rights. It's just ridiculous. Admittedly, tourists and potential immigrants aren't citizens, but this latest nonsense goes against the very principals the US was founded on, not that it means much anymore, apparently.

 

[rokkerkory]

GOP is collapsing jc

 

[commedieu]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/08/polit...est-disqualified-president-muslims/index.html

White House: Donald Trump Muslim plan 'disqualifies' him from presidency

 

[Guevara]

Trump probably wouldn't win the general, it's true. He has an extremely slim chance, thanks to the electoral college map and demographics.

But the GOP won't change their strategy. Why would they? They control the senate, house, and most state governments thanks to their strategy.

What's scary is: as slim a change as the GOP has of taking the presidency, eventually odds would indicate they will. And when they do, they'll control... the senate, the house, and most state governments.

 

[PeskyToaster]

Too many Americans are treating this like a game, you all need to start taking responsibility for what is happening in US politics.

I don't want to see another person post

"Oh but he won't win the presidential election"

This kind of attitude is just making things worse and worse, and of us poor fucking people from the rest of the world have to watch as you all let it happen.

It's more fun when there's some risk involved. I'm going to vote Trump because of this post.

 

[KHarvey16]

There's this thing called the Jones effect or the sheep effect. These polls may not be representative, but people constantly seeing Trump topping the polls and being by far the most recognisable candidate will certainly have some effect.

In many ways i'm expecting it to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

That's a completely tautological justification. The polls are good because the polls are good.

 

[RPGCrazied]

It's more fun when there's some risk involved. I'm going to vote Trump because of this post.

Anyone that wants to vote for Trump for laughs, in my opinion, is part of the problem.

His poll numbers could be so high, because of these type of votes. Its not funny. He would bring great harm to this country.

 

[Deleted member 30609]

Any recent Iowa polls?

 

[Fenderputty]

How many times so far have the pundits claimed "he's just nuked his own campaign" only to have Trump's poll numbers either hold steady or improve?

Nate Silver could probably do an analysis on this. It would be more interesting than listening to him try and wish trump away with stats.

 

[shinobi602]

While many of you guys find this funny, most should find it absolutely fucking appalling. Why? Dude is absolutely destroying the rest of the the candidates and far and wide has the most support among ANY Republican candidate while spewing the disgusting bullshit he does every day.

You can find that hilarious and brush it off, but think about it for a second. There's a very large number of the American population that thinks the way he does and shares his racist and fascist views, on ethnic minorities, on immigrants, on Muslims, etc etc. That's not funny. That's sad, that's deplorable, and it's dangerous.

 

[PBY]

Any recent Iowa polls?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-republican-primary
Nothing more recent than the Monmouth poll that had Cruz in 1st.

 

[Suikoguy]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/08/polit...est-disqualified-president-muslims/index.html

Thanks Obama!

No seriously, Thanks

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

You can find that hilarious and brush it off, but think about it for a second. There's a very large number of the American population that thinks the way he does and shares his racist and fascist views, on ethnic minorities, on immigrants, on Muslims, etc etc. That's not funny. That's sad, that's deplorable, and it's dangerous.

You are 100% correct, one takeaway is that it makes them easier to locate so I can stop associating with them. Thanks Trump!

 

[KHarvey16]

Nate Silver could probably do an analysis on this. It would be more interesting than listening to him try and wish trump away with stats.

If anyone is sticking their fingers in their ears and ignoring things they don't like, it's people making arguments like this.

 

[Fenderputty]

While many of you guys find this funny, most should find it absolutely fucking appalling. Why? Dude is absolutely destroying the rest of the the candidates and far and wide has the most support among ANY Republican candidate while spewing the disgusting bullshit he does every day.

You can find that hilarious and brush it off, but think about it for a second. There's a very large number of the American population that thinks the way he does and shares his racist and fascist views, on ethnic minorities, on immigrants, on Muslims, etc etc. That's not funny. That's sad, that's deplorable, and it's dangerous.

I assumed a large portion of the republican base was like this anyway.

If anyone is sticking their fingers in their ears and ignoring things they don't like, it's people making arguments like this.

Come again?

 

[Speedy Blue Dude]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/08/polit...est-disqualified-president-muslims/index.html

So is this an actual disqualification or is the dude just voicing his displeasure with Trump?

Can I still vote for Trump come Election Day, or is he legitimately banned from running? Seems like it's not an official ruling or anything.

 

[RPGCrazied]

So is this an actual disqualification or is the dude just voicing his displeasure with Trump?

Can I still vote for Trump come Election Day, or is he legitimately banned from running? Seems like it's not an official ruling or anything.

As much as I wish it true, the White House can't really do anything.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

As much as I wish it true, the White House can't really do anything.

It isn't the WH doing anything it is the oath of office that is doing something, the whole Constitution thing. But yes, it is just the WH showing how deplorable the remark happens to be.

 

[CharminUltra]

And he doesn't even have all the Chaos Crystals yet...

 

[shinobi602]

I assumed a large portion of the republican base was like this anyway.

That's still nothing to scoff at...the thing that makes it worse is all this shit is making them more emboldened than before.

 

[RPGCrazied]

It isn't the WH doing anything it is the oath of office that is doing something, the whole Constitution thing.

Hey, I'm all for anything to cause him to not get into the white house. If that works, then good. He shouldn't be president.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

That's still nothing to scoff at...the thing that makes it worse is all this shit is making them more emboldened than before.

Wouldn't you rather have this than the dog whistles though?

 

[entremet]

LOL @ Nate Silver.

 

[KHarvey16]

Come again?

The constant desire among some to misrepresent and misconstrue the position taken by 538 gets annoying.

 

[friskykillface]

Believe in trump the god

You can't disqualify the trump

 

[King Tubby]

While many of you guys find this funny, most should find it absolutely fucking appalling. Why? Dude is absolutely destroying the rest of the the candidates and far and wide has the most support among ANY Republican candidate while spewing the disgusting bullshit he does every day.

You can find that hilarious and brush it off, but think about it for a second. There's a very large number of the American population that thinks the way he does and shares his racist and fascist views, on ethnic minorities, on immigrants, on Muslims, etc etc. That's not funny. That's sad, that's deplorable, and it's dangerous.

A lot of us have known this for years if not decades. All that Trump's campaign is doing is bringing that out into the spotlight.

 

[Principate]

That's a completely tautological justification. The polls are good because the polls are good.

No I'm saying the polls have a psychological effect, hence why he mentions them all the god damn time. There's a reason for it and it's obvious.

 

[KHarvey16]

No I'm saying the polls have a psychological effect, hence why he mentions them all the god damn time. There's a reason for it and it's obvious.

Based on what data?

 

[GaimeGuy]

NotAllRepulicans.gif

 

[shinobi602]

A lot of us have known this for years if not decades. All that Trump's campaign is doing is bringing that out into the spotlight.

I've lived in Florida almost my whole life and while I knew prejudice was rampant in their ranks, I never thought the vile and hatred was this strong at such a wide scale. It's really terrifying to see such a large percentage of the populace harboring this shit.

 

[Piggus]

Too many Americans are treating this like a game, you all need to start taking responsibility for what is happening in US politics.

I don't want to see another person post

"Oh but he won't win the presidential election"

This kind of attitude is just making things worse and worse, and of us poor fucking people from the rest of the world have to watch as you all let it happen.

If you think he actually has a chance in the general election, then it's time for you to go out and take a breather. Relax.

 

[Dragon]

Thanks for the info. I'd say it's a given that he's way less competitive among Latinos, but I keep people here saying minorities in general. Was just wondering if there was hard data. And 25% among African Americans would be pretty high, considering Romney pulled in what? 6%?

Trump wouldn't be going against Obama though.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

I've lived in Florida almost my whole life and while I knew prejudice was rampant in their ranks, I never thought the vile and hatred was this strong at such a wide scale. It's really terrifying to such a large percentage of the populace harboring this shit.

Live in Texas, any illusion concerning the vitriol and hate went away when Obama was elected. The things that I have seen and heard in the past few years really isn't much different than now.

 

[sangreal]

Trump probably wouldn't win the general, it's true. He has an extremely slim chance, thanks to the electoral college map and demographics.

But the GOP won't change their strategy. Why would they? They control the senate, house, and most state governments thanks to their strategy.

What's scary is: as slim a change as the GOP has of taking the presidency, eventually odds would indicate they will. And when they do, they'll control... the senate, the house, and most state governments.

get ready for some constitutional amendments when that happens

 

[DataStream]

You can find that hilarious and brush it off, but think about it for a second. There's a very large number of the American population that thinks the way he does and shares his racist and fascist views, on ethnic minorities, on immigrants, on Muslims, etc etc. That's not funny. That's sad, that's deplorable, and it's dangerous.

But didn't everyone already know that? He is simply making the GOP deal with the bigotry that they have tried to appeal to under thinly veiled rhetoric all these years.

Sunlight is the best disinfectant. Now the GOP has to start repudiating this line of thinking and actually talk about policy or be relegated to the party of fascist bigotry.

 

[Premium Quality]

 

[Led_Zeppelin]

Your assumption is that these polls reflect votes that will actually be cast in the primaries. Why? And why would lying in an attempt to troll be the only explanation for why not?

Well mostly because of the difference. At this time in the previous race there was a clear top tier of candidates and Romney was on top of that with some clear lead but not as clear as this one. Sure the poll are meaningless as they are but they never can paint a reality that doesn't exist, Trump campaign so far has been completely bombarded by the idea of "it will fall" "people will lose interest" "it will say something outrageous and he will fall" or "X debate will kill his campaign" and the like since he started his campaign. Now people are saying "The lead in the polls are meaningless", people need to see the forest already Trump's message is not going away by thinking it will go away, because if it didn't by now I doubt it will go or be irrelevant by February when the primary actually starts.

 

[KHarvey16]

Now people are saying "The lead in the polls are meaningless",

Now? This has been the fundamental argument the entire time. I feel like you don't really know what the position is that's suggesting Trump has a much lower chance to win the nomination than you think he does.

 

[lastflowers]

While many of you guys find this funny, most should find it absolutely fucking appalling. Why? Dude is absolutely destroying the rest of the the candidates and far and wide has the most support among ANY Republican candidate while spewing the disgusting bullshit he does every day.

You can find that hilarious and brush it off, but think about it for a second. There's a very large number of the American population that thinks the way he does and shares his racist and fascist views, on ethnic minorities, on immigrants, on Muslims, etc etc. That's not funny. That's sad, that's deplorable, and it's dangerous.

You can find things funny and appalling at the same time. I've been doing it for years!

 

[Makai]

Trump always way overperforms in Morning Consult polls. Actual support is probably closer to 30%.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Too many Americans are treating this like a game, you all need to start taking responsibility for what is happening in US politics.

I don't want to see another person post

"Oh but he won't win the presidential election"

This kind of attitude is just making things worse and worse, and of us poor fucking people from the rest of the world have to watch as you all let it happen.

Too many people from the rest of the world apparently don't understand the electoral college, but thanks for the lecture.

 

[Gallbaro]

While many of you guys find this funny, most should find it absolutely fucking appalling. Why? Dude is absolutely destroying the rest of the the candidates and far and wide has the most support among ANY Republican candidate while spewing the disgusting bullshit he does every day.

You can find that hilarious and brush it off, but think about it for a second. There's a very large number of the American population that thinks the way he does and shares his racist and fascist views, on ethnic minorities, on immigrants, on Muslims, etc etc. That's not funny. That's sad, that's deplorable, and it's dangerous.

You need to go deeper.

Spoiler

Inception

Trump is selling a product, an evolution on Change and Hope, where the message was opague enough to be interpreted as the electorate/market wanted, he is actually succeeding in reflecting what the Republican base wants and beleives. The man is selling.

I would not be surprised at all if after the primaries he goes hard to the economic left, left of Hillary while still spouting god, guns, and whites.

I do not believe the current offering or the general election offering will be any indication of his actual policies if elected.

 

[Suikoguy]

Now? This has been the fundamental argument the entire time. I feel like you don't really know what the position is that's suggesting Trump has a much lower chance to win the nomination than you think he does.

http://time.com/4136867/donald-trump-december-polls/

In fact, according to a 1999 Gallup poll analysis, in almost every election since 1952, the leader in the Republican polls in the fall ended up being the party’s nominee.

Oh wait, I thought polls don't matter this far out!
I don't get the continued notion that polls don't mater in December.

 

[entremet]

You need to go deeper.

Spoiler

Inception

Trump is selling a product, an evolution on Change and Hope, where the message was opague enough to be interpreted as the electorate/market wanted, he is actually succeeding in reflecting what the Republican base wants and beleives. The man is selling.

I would not be surprised at all if after the primaries he goes hard to the economic left, left of Hillary while still spouting god, guns, and whites.

Yep.

It's kinda funny that many thought he was dumb.

He's actually outsmarted all his GOP rivals thus far.

 

[KHarvey16]

http://time.com/4136867/donald-trump-december-polls/



Oh wait, I thought polls don't matter this far out!
I don't get the continued notion that polls don't mater in December.

Did you actually read that? And have you actually followed the analysis being done at 538? Nothing here is new or contradictory.

 

[Cromat]

Are there any recent polls about how he would do nationally?

 

[acrid]

It just gets funnier by each passing day

 

[Suikoguy]

Did you actually read that? And have you actually followed the analysis being done at 538? Nothing here is new or contradictory.

Yeah, it says that there are other factors at play. Of which I agree.
I'm arguing that from a polling perspective, Trump has a good shot at the nomination. And historically, they are not a terrible indicator of who will win the primary.

There seems to be a reluctance to judge this race from the polls from some people. I don't get it.

 

[Principate]

Based on what data?

Large amounts of on the principal effect I'm mentioning the Jones effect, there's lot on it, and as a businessman he would obviously know. Precisely how much of an effect remains to be but you can't honestly it would have no effect in comparison to if he was running dead last all the time.

 

[Led_Zeppelin]

Now? This has been the fundamental argument the entire time. I feel like you don't really know what the position is that's suggesting Trump has a much lower chance to win the nomination than you think he does.

I agree that poll are meaningless, it was meaningless for Ron Paul for example. But Trump's campaign doesn't seems like a summer love story before the primaries. Trump has been gaining support since the start with his infamous wall speech. He did everything in the book that would kill another candidate already, he lost all the debates, he barely advertise his own campaign (the media does it for free for him though), he speaks to people's most basic fears, when a rival gets a moment to shine thanks to a rise in polls (Like Cruz in Iowa, yesterday, not that in the great scheme Iowa matters since if I remember right they have always pick losers in the primaries) Trump is quick to say something outrageous on twitter and get all the spotlight to himself. Also while polls may not reflect reality with 100% accuracy (and not even withing the margin of errors they use), I don't see how someone could completely throw away all the poll data so far that clearly shows a primary runner when the previous polls on previous elections didn't had a clear front runner 2 months before the primary started. I mean sure there can be a deviation in the polls and reality but I doubt things will change as much as you expect them to change.