Yeah, I haven't played a Monster Hunter game as good as the Portable games until now. Ichinose knows what's up.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: Week 48, 2015 (Nov 23 - Nov 29)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Yeah, I haven't played a Monster Hunter game as good as the Portable games until now. Ichinose knows what's up.
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
Yes, it's been a joke so far. Lots of P3rd-isms in the game too (scraps for cat parts, true weapon raws displayed)
All right, I had two topics for this one.
First, in response to the Minecraft comments, it seems people are on a similar page with a few exceptions. I'd summarize the average prediction as 100-200K LTD with the potential - but not guarantee - for notable upside. That seems reasonable, and generally matching what I was thinking when I said "bullish".
Second, for Bravely Default, I think the original comment that was translated may have been out of context.
Here's the Japanese text for someone who speaks Japanese:
And here's how Siliconera translated it, which is the second translation I saw and made me reconsider how I took the original statement:
There are two ways to read this.
The first is that they were asked "What is the team doing next?" and they're debating whether to make another Bravely game, or move on to a new IP, which is how I took it from the initial translations.
The other is that they were asked "What is next for the Bravely series?" and they're deciding between a sequel (another game starring Tiz and the existing cast/world) or a new game (with a brand new cast/world or something along those lines).
Is there anyone who can read Japanese that can make the distinction from the original quote, or is it ambiguous there as well?
First, in response to the Minecraft comments, it seems people are on a similar page with a few exceptions. I'd summarize the average prediction as 100-200K LTD with the potential - but not guarantee - for notable upside. That seems reasonable, and generally matching what I was thinking when I said "bullish".
Second, for Bravely Default, I think the original comment that was translated may have been out of context.
Here's the Japanese text for someone who speaks Japanese:
Gamer said:
And here's how Siliconera translated it, which is the second translation I saw and made me reconsider how I took the original statement:
Siliconera said:
There are two ways to read this.
The first is that they were asked "What is the team doing next?" and they're debating whether to make another Bravely game, or move on to a new IP, which is how I took it from the initial translations.
The other is that they were asked "What is next for the Bravely series?" and they're deciding between a sequel (another game starring Tiz and the existing cast/world) or a new game (with a brand new cast/world or something along those lines).
Is there anyone who can read Japanese that can make the distinction from the original quote, or is it ambiguous there as well?
Not as easy. Portable 3rd can be beaten blindfolded but it does get pretty easy if you're familiar with the series. Some monsters can ruin your day but for the most part it's not what I would consider "difficult".
The main thing about MHX for me sets it above Tsujimoto's games is that it's actually FUN to play. 3U suffered with underwater combat and 4U wasn't fun in my opinion because of the imbalanced monster riding, which took players out of the action frequently and made monsters cheese-able.
Ichinose managed to make a game that's not only accessible but also enjoyable.
Gotdatmoney
Member
I feel like I'm the only person who liked underwater combat. Felt like it made battles and the ecosystem more dynamic.
If the game is performing this well I wonder if they will localize this version or wait for a G version.
My money's on a G version for localisation.
If 2016 is for Monster Hunter Stories only, Monster Hunter XG will be in 2017, which is most likely for next portable device (likely NX at the moment)
It would surprise me if Stories was given a year all to itself. It's not even in the same genre AFAIK.
Ichinose's last game, Portable 3rd, never actually got a G version despite being the best selling MH game ever, so repeating the same mistake would be silly. I'd take advantage of X's success next year personally.
It'll be interesting to see what happens with their next generation of MH announcements.
I doubt it'd be exclusive to just NX. It'd be cross-gen at the least probably.
You mean combining the sale numbers of all episodes? like if it's released in 7 episodes and each sold 1 million, it would count as 7 millions? That's the only way I see it could happen WW. There is no way it would happen in Japan.
Pennywise83
Banned
About the last DQ mobile game, is it me or it's not performing that well? A bit worrying for what should have been the next big SQEX mobile game.
SQEX showed a series of artworks during the announcement at E3; the point is, the mere fact that the game was announced during the most important video game event signals SQEX's intention of at least caring about the project - and being interested in marketing the game in Western countries. Please remember that initially SQEX wasn't interested in bringing BD in the West - which shows low expectations about the project in contrast with a game that has a worldwide release already planned.
Project Setsuna is a small-scaled game - this is obvious. This doesn't mean sales expectations must be below 40k FW / 100k LTD - in the past SQEX dropped IPs considering smaller investments and higher sales (the Chocobo series after DS entries, the Mana IP after Heroes of Mana).
The mere fact that Project Setsuna is already planned for a worldwide release shows SQEX's intention in caring about the project more than how much the company ever cared about the Bravely IP: marketing left to the development team in Japan, no enough stock available during the first weeks in the market, no eShop release available at launch, no intention of bringing the game outside Japan.
Demo are a double-edged swords - they don't have a 100% positive impact on sales and we just witnessed this with game such as Code Name STEAM. Also, the release of demos is a marketing tool in the hand of developers which shows how much SQEX cared about the game - not even bothering a proper marketing effort from the dedicated company unit. Trailers during Nintendo Direct means little since Direct are targeted towards those who already know about games - otherwise The Wonderful 101 and Bayonetta 2 would have sold millions by having dedicated Directs. And, again, this just shows SQEX passing the marketing duties to Nintendo instead of doing by itself.
It would a completely waste of resource if SQEX built a new team for sub-100k games. Of course one game will not determine the team's fate, but a sub-100k start would mean an utter failure, given how SQEX talked about the renewed interest of gamers in old-school jRPGs and the fact that BD was able to sell 300k units in Japan / 1m worldwide on a platform. It's also releasing on two platforms which, in your opinion, are quite fertile for jRPGs and therefore userbase should more than welcomed projects like this.
The fact that the game is being developed on Unity simply means that SQEX is ready in porting the game on mobile without much effort.
The sequel was developed because BD was SQEX's best-selling IPs in Japan since what, KH? And also its best-selling IP in Western markets since PS2-era. For the Sequel was a mean of gauging interest and feedback for the actual sequel, and also that version sold pretty well.
Please note that I'm not expecting Setsuna to sell as well as BD - I said around 200k units would be a reasonable result - given marketing push, the type of game, the platforms where it's being released and so on.
SQEX showed a series of artworks during the announcement at E3; the point is, the mere fact that the game was announced during the most important video game event signals SQEX's intention of at least caring about the project - and being interested in marketing the game in Western countries. Please remember that initially SQEX wasn't interested in bringing BD in the West - which shows low expectations about the project in contrast with a game that has a worldwide release already planned.
Project Setsuna is a small-scaled game - this is obvious. This doesn't mean sales expectations must be below 40k FW / 100k LTD - in the past SQEX dropped IPs considering smaller investments and higher sales (the Chocobo series after DS entries, the Mana IP after Heroes of Mana).
The mere fact that Project Setsuna is already planned for a worldwide release shows SQEX's intention in caring about the project more than how much the company ever cared about the Bravely IP: marketing left to the development team in Japan, no enough stock available during the first weeks in the market, no eShop release available at launch, no intention of bringing the game outside Japan.
Demo are a double-edged swords - they don't have a 100% positive impact on sales and we just witnessed this with game such as Code Name STEAM. Also, the release of demos is a marketing tool in the hand of developers which shows how much SQEX cared about the game - not even bothering a proper marketing effort from the dedicated company unit. Trailers during Nintendo Direct means little since Direct are targeted towards those who already know about games - otherwise The Wonderful 101 and Bayonetta 2 would have sold millions by having dedicated Directs. And, again, this just shows SQEX passing the marketing duties to Nintendo instead of doing by itself.
It would a completely waste of resource if SQEX built a new team for sub-100k games. Of course one game will not determine the team's fate, but a sub-100k start would mean an utter failure, given how SQEX talked about the renewed interest of gamers in old-school jRPGs and the fact that BD was able to sell 300k units in Japan / 1m worldwide on a platform. It's also releasing on two platforms which, in your opinion, are quite fertile for jRPGs and therefore userbase should more than welcomed projects like this.
The fact that the game is being developed on Unity simply means that SQEX is ready in porting the game on mobile without much effort.
The sequel was developed because BD was SQEX's best-selling IPs in Japan since what, KH? And also its best-selling IP in Western markets since PS2-era. For the Sequel was a mean of gauging interest and feedback for the actual sequel, and also that version sold pretty well.
Please note that I'm not expecting Setsuna to sell as well as BD - I said around 200k units would be a reasonable result - given marketing push, the type of game, the platforms where it's being released and so on.
Jon Carter
Member
What countries are you referring to? Because it's definitely not the US, France or the UK. The retail space given to video games in Japan is massive. At least in Osaka and Tokyo, the walls dedicated to gaming accessories alone are bigger than any shelves for any system in any Western store I know.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Bravely Default was released during the last years of Yoichi Wada. A lot has changed since Wada has left and I am really glad Yosuke Matsuda became the CEO as he took the company in the right direction. Not only is Square Enix focusing on Steam and on the most popular Western platform (PS4), they are also trying their best to invest in mobile and they have found great success there. I will credit this all to Matsuda, who knows how to handle the company well.
If you want to point to Bravely Default not being localized, blame it all on Wada. Yosuke Matsuda, on the other hand, knows the importance of Western markets so I am really confident almost majority of their Japanese output will get a Western release this time around. Project Setsuna is just one of them, they also released Dragon Quest Heroes and have plans to release Dragon Quest VII, VIII, Builders and almost certainly Dragon Quest XI. This wouldn't have happened under Wada's rule at all.
Matsuda is also working on bringing their old IPs back. They are releasing a Sword of Mana remake for Mobile/Vita and have recently released Star Ocean 2 for PS4/Vita. I am pretty sure Star Ocean 2 will be released in the West as well, same for Sword of Mana.
Like I have explained, since the original Bravely Default was released, a lot has changed for Square Enix. The new CEO is a lot more open minded and aggressive in how to push games on all platforms. In the last two years, Square Enix is basically releasing all of their Final Fantasy games on Steam.
Bravely Default demo had received a lot of critical praise. It helped in spreading WOM around the game's release. I remember how the demo was praised by almost everyone and called a shinning example on how to release demos. The demo also focused on a completely new area that was not in the final game. The demo definitely helped it sell more copies in the West and in Japan. Since it was a completely different area than the final game, I am sure it didn't burn out people on purchasing the full game.
Wonderful 101 and Bayonetta 2 are rather weird examples to list alongside Bravely Default. They are not JRPG and both targeted a genre that was extremely niche and different for the Wii U demographics. How many games are like Bayonetta 2 on Wii U? How many are like Wonderful101 on Wii U? Also the Wii U is a failed hardware which also contributed a lot to the failure of these games unlike Bravely Default, which was sold a popular hardware.
You comparison keeps going back to Bravely Default. Look, the original found success, so what? Did it keep its sales momentum. The sequel flopped really hard compared to the original and I doubt it will sell as well the original in the West considering how the end of the game soured a lot of people from the original.
Nirolak has already shared a quote by Matsuda in which he explains his intention by the Tokyo RPG Factory studio, which is pretty much what I have said if you go back and read my posts.
Tokyo RPG Factory doesn't even have full dedicated staff. It is composed of external developers and freelance staff. How does this make it expensive venture for Square Enix. Using Unity of course means a cheap mobile port down the line along with a release on Steam, which I expect as well. It doesn't really change the fact that the game they are making is a small-scale game and it is more of an experiment for them to see if there is an interest in the particular genre.
Marketing Push?
The marketing push that they have done so far is "non-existent". I have said again that I am curious to see what kind of marketing push they will do at Jump Festa for the game and what kind of push we can expect closer to release. Until then, please don't talk about marketing of a game that has received next to none of it.
Here is what they have done for Setsuna.
E3 2015 - Tokyo RPG Factory announcement and artwork for Setsuna
TGS 2015 - Livestream on Nico Nico showing gameplay and a gameplay trailer.
Post-TGS 2015 - A simple artwork and confirmation of retail release and price in Japan.
There is nothing for the West so far but we know it will be localized, that's all.
I think this ties into the discussion Niro and I were having earlier on Yokai-Watch's consistent, rising performance. This title, here, I believe exemplifies a more nominal behavior for titles outside of the top 10 or games that could pass for heart rate monitors on these charts.
Consistent~ish performance, then an event up-tick and then back down to pre-event levels. Now, this DQMobile title may actually be showing signs of decay (but more data is needed post bump decline to see a slope/plateau form). I think this is general more expected behavior patterns (though I do think DQM's numbers for ranking are actually surprisingly anemic given the IP and the performance even if patterned similar to what I think is normal behavior is surprisingly low).
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Out of curiosity, when did Masuda take over? Because based on what you are saying, Bravely Second should have been treated differently in the new approach of Square Enix, right? If anything, SqEx was quite successful in killing off that franchise by giving it seemingly even less budget than last time.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Mar 2013 for Matsuda as CEO, and I have posted before that I am utterly baffled by Square Enix's support for Bravely Default. But seeing Setsuna, maybe they wanted to make their own franchise instead of a partnership with Silicon Studios hence they just let it die?
But BD 2 was confirmed for the West unlike BD 1.
I didn't say it will be exclusive only to NX but I gave a reason for a 2016 release.
That has more to do with Nintendo than SE, I would hazard to guess.
FreedomFighter
Member
You aren't. I enjoyed them too.
dakkumauji
Member
It's definitely weird behavior for a mobile game. While it's the same general trend of most games, the very strong drop, then very extreme climb before the very strong drop is a bit worrying.
Of course, maybe they changed the event structure and schedule of the game that reflects such a sharp increase then decline. Maybe players wised up that there's no reason to spend money during off times which is why its rank completely tanked.
Sammy Samusu
Member
I doubt as the goal would be to move the fanbase to NX.
It's not like NX or whatever handheld Nintendo has coming next will have any competition.
They'd be silly to leave millions of sales on the table.
Sammy Samusu
Member
In the short or in the long run?
Even if the engine could be ported over fast enough and save transfers could work somehow, I don't think Capcom would make the system's first Monster Hunter title an add-on to a non-numbered entry. I'm anticipating MHX:G will be one last 3DS title and the mainline team will start working on MH5 for new hardware once they're done with Stories.
They're been working on MH5 for a while now.
But I agree that Cross G will be their last 3DS title.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
both
Hum? I was under the impression that the Portable team made MHX, and that the majority of the Numeric team was on MHStories and that that was a huge project/undertaking and still being heavily worked on.
I am sure some parts of the team(s) is(are) working on asset generation, engine work, and such for MH5 as would be normal, but the major work/manhours is currently focused on MHStories.
You could argue both are in the cards for an NX version by riding off the early adoption coattails (which served them well in the west with 4U and co-promotion/marketing with N3DS adoption), the G-versions also tend to experience a hefty drop from the original which could be offset with a port that is more upgraded than just more monsters/new mechanic tweaks. The long-term is self-explanatory.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we saw a N3DS co-marketing scenario but still cross-gen.
Hero of Legend
Member
Actually Stories is seemingly directed by the same director of Lost Planet 1 & 2, so it might be the Lost Planet team on Stories? The E.X. Troopers team maybe?
It's a bit hard to say. Japanese mobile game revenue tends to be event driven, so when the next one comes up, we'll be able to see where it goes. You'll notice the spike in the middle corresponding to the last one.
I can't imagine they'll wait more than another week without an event though. Generally you run them weekly or - if they last for a week - every few weeks.
But yes, if it doesn't react to the next event, it's not an amazing performance relative to potential.
dakkumauji
Member
I was scooping around wikis and news sites about this game and noticed a complete lack of news/updates for the game for basically the latter half of November. at best there was small gatcha events, filler stuff
just from the news page on 4gamer, shows a lack of news between November 13th and December
I imagine a complete lack of events bored a decent number of players and that's kinda why despite the sudden uptake in sales, it's tapering off again
Ports and expansions are how Capcom tends to launch MH on new platforms, from PSP (MHP) to Wii (MHG) to 3DS (MH3G). I doubt NX will be any different, it'll launch with X (HD ver) or XG (3DS crossplat). They might announce MH5 at the same time but Capcom always wants something to wet the fanbase's appetite first.
I also don't think it being a non-numbered entry matters. It certainly isn't right now.
No it wasn't, Square Enix was dead silent on the game leaving Japan. Then 2 months after it'd come out Nintendo finally announced it for the west last E3.
Square Enix did pretty much nothing in terms of pushing either BD or BS in the west, it's been all Nintendo both times.
Moor-Angol
Banned
I was referring to Gamestop, which are dedicated game shops.
Regarding situation in Japan I can say that recently I noticed that a lot of shops expanded the accessory section over the games one, a lot of shops closed in the latest years (and I came to Japan in 2003 for the first time so I can have a reference).
If you talk about Yodobashi or Bic Camera it's ok, but there are also small shops and if you have been to Japan you realized how is "small" here
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
So what are we looking for in tomorrow's MC report? MHX's and other games' 2nd week (like Taiko)? How badly Just Dance:YW and other titles can fail?
#FE is coming out on Xmas week (as in the very day after xmas) so you can guess.
btw, it's pronounced Sharp FE, no hashtag.
madstarr12
Member
Hmm, I wonder if Squidtoon can make it to at least 2nd place for the biggest week of the year. That is, if #FE under-performs.
Pound FE.Ōkami;188503106 said:
twothunder
Member
I'm not betting against Splatoon at this point. I'm curious how #FE will do though.
Poor Tsubasa will never be the top Wii-U idol with Callie and Marie around.
Hero of Legend
Member
If it sells poorly, would it be Flat FE?
Dragon Quest 30th Anniversary Project Presentation on January 13. It will be live streamed on Niconico.
http://gematsu.com/2015/12/dragon-quest-30th-anniversary-project-presentation-set-january-13
DQXI hype.
http://gematsu.com/2015/12/dragon-quest-30th-anniversary-project-presentation-set-january-13
DQXI hype.
theprodigy
Member
Ōkami;188503106 said:
Pound FE.
lmao I knew the name would be good for some laughs
also now it's 4 days since preorders opened(?) and it's still not on comgnet
DarkLordMalik
Member
So you think Nintendo just stood up and decided to localize every Japanese title. Yuji Hori was the one who leaked DQVII and VIII coming to the West and no one in their right mind would have expected such an announcement in 2012 under Wada rule. While I think BS and DQVII and VIII involve Nintendo to some extent, they are not magically guaranteed a Western version because of Nintendo. Square Enix is also involved to some extent and I definitely credit this to the new CEO.sörine;188477081 said:
Thanks for the anecdote. I didn't know!Ōkami;188503106 said:
And another piece of anecdotal information: Suoer Mario Bros. 3 has continued to sell really well since Super Mario Maker released. A real surprise as 3DS Virtual Console has been dead for a long time and will be until Pokémon.
Pennywise83
Banned
Don't you think is a bit worrying when a game must rely on events to collect revenues, in particular when it is tied to a huge IP and is also basically quite new? I would expect events to drive interest after many months in the market.
Of course SQEX had a say on localizations - or do you think Nintendo stole the code and did everything without asking the company who developed those games? lol
BS localization reminds a lot BD's - SQEX involvement was minimal.
Indeed: SQEX didn't bother in bringing BD in Western markets and this clearly shows how the company didn't care about the project - therefore, expectations were in check. Project Setsuna seems to have a different scope in SQEX plans: a symbol of old-school jRPGs with a worldwide market appeal (hence the presentation during E3 - if SQEX hadn't cared, why wouldn't have bothered, after all?). Actually, I feel like SQEX sales expectations should be even higher than BD given how the latter was well-received worldwide (1m units and counting) and how much this changed the company plans onwards (the CEO talkes about how he was surprised to see such a wide success for an old-school jRPG). After all, Setsuna is launching on "the most popular Western platform (PS4)".
Right - I'm curious to see how those will perform and whether SQEX is ready for a cold shower in terms of sales numbers.
Aggressive means that expectations should be high enough, otherwise why even bother to create a development team for a string of sub-100k games? It'd be completely weird and against SQEX current strategy of investing where profits are.
You're confusing how the demo was received, and how the demo works as a marketing tool. The demo was received well (actually, Japan got a few demos), and this is true - it helped word-of-mouth and increase general awareness. It is also true that demos are typically marketed towards that already know the game existence, and perhaps are on the fence when considering the purchase. Demos can also be incredibly damaging - the fact that BD is a quality game of course helped, but this only shows how the development worked opposite to how SQEX invested in promoting the game itself (close to nil).
Also, I dont' understand what you're referring with "the demo also focused on a completely new area that was not in the final game" - the demo was set in Ancheim, and in the desert surrounding the town, which is totally a part of the final game.
Well, demo should help in consumers' purchasing decision, especially when games are not in a popular genre already present on the platform - otherwise the demo only aims at communicating how much the game is different from competition. BD was released on a popular hardware with almost zero traditional turn-based jRPGs before it (DQM, SH, EOIV) exactly how Setsuna will be released on popular platforms with some jRPG on them.
I just don't think SQEX would have bothered for a sub-100k game across two platforms, one being the reference platform for jRPGs by the same company. Perhaps Steam and mobile will save the game if it will bomb on PSV & PS4.
[/QUOTE]
That's already much more of what SQEX ever did for BD before its launch in Japan.
Pennywise83
Banned
Well, cross-platform is much more common nowadays than in 2011, and Nintendo was pretty clear in pursuing the ecosystem approach Sony had been implementing since a few years. Also, on which platform MH3G should have been appeared on top of 3DS?
Jon Carter
Member
Personally I don't even think the game will get a G version. It will probably get an "HD" remaster for NX instead. It would not feel as much like milking as it would be an ideal launch title for a handheld.