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May 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 7th

O

Obliterator

Member
Mrbob said:
I bought two copies of overwatch. One on bnet and one on PSN. Neither of my purchases will be represented by NPD. NPD kind of useless for software sales nowadays. At the very least you dont get the full picture.
Click to expand...

It really depends on the game. That said Overwatch looks tailer made for digital. It won't surprise me if it does less than 500k at retail.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Edson Farley said:
[XB1] 197K
[PS4] 153K
[3DS] 90K
[WIU] 24K
Click to expand...

Edson Farley said:
Well we'll find out in about 2 weeks.
Click to expand...

I'd be curious to see the rationale here too. Was there anything in the month's proceedings that would lead you to this?

There's been no trending information to suggest anything of the sort, unless I'm missing some massive intel on the gamestop front (which even my friends that work in gamestop haven't commented on to me - this sort of thing is always second hand so I don't claim any veracity, just usually helps back up what I'm seeing on my side).

And they're totally your predictions, by all means. I don't actually ever put down predictions for the actual numbers themselves, but I was more just curious if you had any reason for why you'd think there'd not only be a win for the XB1, but a pretty drastic one by the standards of winning in these early months.

Care to elaborate?
 
J

Javin98

Banned
RexNovis said:
.......... LOL
My man isn't even trying to hide it anymore. Big Macs are a helluva drug.
Click to expand...
Hey, man, please explain this joke, sounds hilarious. :p

Also, I get what everyone is hinting at, but not sure how Big Macs relate to it. Even noobie is predicting a big PS4 win, LOL.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Still working on my Bold Predictions and HW predictions for this month. This month is going to be a fun one. I know you are all waiting with baited breath.

Javin98 said:
Hey, man, please explain this joke, sounds hilarious. :p

Also, I get what everyone is hinting at, but not sure how Big Macs relate to it. Even noobie is predicting a big PS4 win, LOL.
Click to expand...

Go read post #2855 and beyond in the NPD results thread and you will find the answers you seek.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
RexNovis said:
Go read post #2855 and beyond in the NPD results thread and you will find the answers you seek.
Click to expand...
I see, will do. Hopefully I get a good laugh out of it.

Edit: Just looked it up, I do remember those posts, but it still doesn't make sense to me, LOL.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
I believe the 2DS pricedrop need 2/3 weeks at least for have an important effect, so i don't see 3DS up MOM this month. June should have a way better weekly avg, maybe it can also be up YOY.


As for people who predict a MOM increase for XB1... dudes no offense but what have you smoked? :p
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Alright I here are my HW predictions for May

[XB1] 118k
[PS4] 189k
[WIU] 30k
[3DS] 58k

And now it's time for:


RexNovis' Bold Predictions
May 2016 Edition​


-Overwatch will be outsold by Uncharted 4 at retail but Overwatch's WW total revenue including digital and microtransactions will not only exceed UC4 but also exceed that of Halo 5's initial reported HW, Accessory and Software revenue of $400 million by at least 1.5 times.

- Doom will rank in the top 4 for the month sell more than 2.5 times that of The Division which will rank in the bottom 3 for the month

- Uncharted 4 will sell less than 1 million copies at retail excluding bundles but manage to outsell Battleborn by more than 9 times.

- Doom will sell the most retail copies on XB1.

- Homefront will not only not rank bit will sell fewer than 50k copies and will sell less than half as many copies at retail as Battleborn.

- Ratchet and Clank, Minecrafy, and The Division will all rank higher than Battleborn.

- PS4 will outsell XB1 by a margin of at least 70k units and will sell more than 6 times the number of units as WiiU​
 
A

AdanVC

Member
First time doing predictions so:

[PS4] 250K Due to Uncharted 4 hype.
[XB1] 110K Due to Overwatch and Doom.
[3DS] 50K Due to the upcoming set of RPGs coming
[WIU] 10K Due to nothing.
 
V

Voost Kain

Banned
Abdiel said:
I'd be curious to see the rationale here too. Was there anything in the month's proceedings that would lead you to this?

There's been no trending information to suggest anything of the sort, unless I'm missing some massive intel on the gamestop front (which even my friends that work in gamestop haven't commented on to me - this sort of thing is always second hand so I don't claim any veracity, just usually helps back up what I'm seeing on my side).

And they're totally your predictions, by all means. I don't actually ever put down predictions for the actual numbers themselves, but I was more just curious if you had any reason for why you'd think there'd not only be a win for the XB1, but a pretty drastic one by the standards of winning in these early months.

Care to elaborate?
Click to expand...

Multiple sources across retailers that I have that have been selling out of Xbox Ones, and that became more of an issue with that temporary deal. (I've walked around several my self only 2 had Xbox Ones in stock as of Saturday)

Then reports that the console was selling more at the same rate and time at it's original price compared to the time frame of comparisons where it was $299

Also reports that the games that didn't sell to well, were now selling at a faster pace for this month.

Multiple reports and first-hand experience of people questioning and not buying a PS4 after given information about their Neo questions. Or they ended up buying a Wii U or Xbox.

Whether this means anything I don't know, that's why I predicted a small gap. If I'm wrong it'll probably be around the same gap the other way around as well in my opinion.
 
K

KinofChaos

Banned
Edson Farley said:
Multiple sources across retailers that I have that have been selling out of Xbox Ones, and that became more of an issue with that temporary deal. (I've walked around several my self only 2 had Xbox Ones in stock as of Saturday)

Then reports that the console was selling more at the same rate and time at it's original price compared to the time frame of comparisons where it was $299

Also reports that the games that didn't sell to well, were now selling at a faster pace for this month.

Multiple reports and first-hand experience of people questioning and not buying a PS4 after given information about their Neo questions. Or they ended up buying a Wii U or Xbox.

Whether this means anything I don't know, that's why I predicted a small gap. If I'm wrong it'll probably be around the same gap the other way around as well in my opinion.
Click to expand...

LOL what "Reports"? What reports do you have? 40K is not a small gap at all ,especially for May.
 
G

Guymelef

Member
Edson Farley said:
Multiple sources across retailers that I have that have been selling out of Xbox Ones, and that became more of an issue with that temporary deal. (I've walked around several my self only 2 had Xbox Ones in stock as of Saturday)

Then reports that the console was selling more at the same rate and time at it's original price compared to the time frame of comparisons where it was $299

Also reports that the games that didn't sell to well, were now selling at a faster pace for this month.

Multiple reports and first-hand experience of people questioning and not buying a PS4 after given information about their Neo questions. Or they ended up buying a Wii U or Xbox.

Whether this means anything I don't know, that's why I predicted a small gap. If I'm wrong it'll probably be around the same gap the other way around as well in my opinion.
Click to expand...

That's gold.
 
3

3rdamention

Member
Edson Farley said:
Multiple sources across retailers that I have that have been selling out of Xbox Ones, and that became more of an issue with that temporary deal. (I've walked around several my self only 2 had Xbox Ones in stock as of Saturday)

Then reports that the console was selling more at the same rate and time at it's original price compared to the time frame of comparisons where it was $299

Also reports that the games that didn't sell to well, were now selling at a faster pace for this month.

Multiple reports and first-hand experience of people questioning and not buying a PS4 after given information about their Neo questions. Or they ended up buying a Wii U or Xbox.

Whether this means anything I don't know, that's why I predicted a small gap. If I'm wrong it'll probably be around the same gap the other way around as well in my opinion.
Click to expand...



Wow, none of our verified insiders haven't even hinted at this...

Someone should make a thread...
 
V

Voost Kain

Banned
Cthulhu_Steev said:
How can you be wrong when you've got the numbers from multiple sources that are so high up you can't mention them on Gaf?
Click to expand...

You don't seem to know how this works, I can't post their numbers, they have to. You see those checkmarks that are one some peoples member tags? This is why I said we'll find out whats wrong or not in a couple weeks, my prediction is just based on what I know in a certain region, a lot of retailers, but I mean there's 50 states in the country, so that could be an outlier for all I know.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Edson Farley said:
Multiple sources across retailers that I have that have been selling out of Xbox Ones, and that became more of an issue with that temporary deal. (I've walked around several my self only 2 had Xbox Ones in stock as of Saturday)

Then reports that the console was selling more at the same rate and time at it's original price compared to the time frame of comparisons where it was $299

Also reports that the games that didn't sell to well, were now selling at a faster pace for this month.

Multiple reports and first-hand experience of people questioning and not buying a PS4 after given information about their Neo questions. Or they ended up buying a Wii U or Xbox.

Whether this means anything I don't know, that's why I predicted a small gap. If I'm wrong it'll probably be around the same gap the other way around as well in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Edson Farley said:
You don't seem to know how this works, I can't post their numbers, they have to. You see those checkmarks that are one some peoples member tags? This is why I said we'll find out whats wrong or not in a couple weeks, my prediction is just based on what I know in a certain region, a lot of retailers, but I mean there's 50 states in the country, so that could be an outlier for all I know.
Click to expand...

Hm. Interesting. Well, thanks for explaining what your reasoning was, which is what I was curious about.

I do periodically check the nationwide inventory system for monthly averages through our stocks, and how things have gone, so I have a general impression of monthly trends across various districts, but as I said, I only have access to info from my own company. Though the Gamestop folks I do know don't seem to see the same trend you do, so I wonder if there was a big regional push. Certainly nothing on the national scale for Best Buy would lend itself to what you predicted as a general spectrum.

I'll also say this: I've had exactly 5 customers ask me about the Neo, and now the Scorpio rumors. All of them already own existing systems, and were curious if I knew anything more than they did. GAF awareness and discussion of these kinds of rumors is totally divorced from mass market perception of the products. Until Sony actually lays it out as an available product coming to market, which will get discussions on actual sites and news channels that broadcast that sort of thing, it's all just smoke.

Depending on how they handle their reveals, Sony and MS will have interesting tasks on their hands for the Neo and Scorpio. My expectation is that the announcement of the premium models will be accompanied by price drops of the originals, to bring them to clear cut lines of base model and premium options. Helps to have lines of delineation to minimize confusion.
 
C

Cthulhu_Steev

Member
Edson Farley said:
You don't seem to know how this works, I can't post their numbers, they have to. You see those checkmarks that are one some peoples member tags? This is why I said we'll find out whats wrong or not in a couple weeks, my prediction is just based on what I know in a certain region, a lot of retailers, but I mean there's 50 states in the country, so that could be an outlier for all I know.
Click to expand...

You can't post their numbers because they'll get in trouble, or you can't post their numbers because you'll get a call from Bish?
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Well, won't you all feel stupid when the Xbox One comes out on top this month. I believe sources and reports.

In other news, I cannot believe I get to live in a time when DOOM comes out and is jaw droppingly awesome. I'm savoring this game and know I will play it over and over and over just like the classics. What an amazing achievement.
 
P

ps3ud0

Member
Edson Farley said:
Multiple sources across retailers that I have that have been selling out of Xbox Ones, and that became more of an issue with that temporary deal. (I've walked around several my self only 2 had Xbox Ones in stock as of Saturday)

Then reports that the console was selling more at the same rate and time at it's original price compared to the time frame of comparisons where it was $299

Also reports that the games that didn't sell to well, were now selling at a faster pace for this month.

Multiple reports and first-hand experience of people questioning and not buying a PS4 after given information about their Neo questions. Or they ended up buying a Wii U or Xbox.

Whether this means anything I don't know, that's why I predicted a small gap. If I'm wrong it'll probably be around the same gap the other way around as well in my opinion.
Click to expand...
Really hope the mods treat this as insider information and make their normal enquiries - would be so entertaining...

ps3ud0 8)
 
V

Voost Kain

Banned
ps3ud0 said:
Really hope the mods treat this as insider information and make their normal enquiries - would be so entertaining...

ps3ud0 8)
Click to expand...

There's not a single number in that post nor any real info outside anecdotal.

Cthulhu_Steev said:
You can't post their numbers because they'll get in trouble, or you can't post their numbers because you'll get a call from Bish?
Click to expand...

From what I understand I can't post numbers for places I don't work at. The people who actual do have to post the numbers but I could be wrong. But then there's the former problem as well for a couple of them.

Abdiel said:
Hm. Interesting. Well, thanks for explaining what your reasoning was, which is what I was curious about.

I do periodically check the nationwide inventory system for monthly averages through our stocks, and how things have gone, so I have a general impression of monthly trends across various districts, but as I said, I only have access to info from my own company. Though the Gamestop folks I do know don't seem to see the same trend you do, so I wonder if there was a big regional push. Certainly nothing on the national scale for Best Buy would lend itself to what you predicted as a general spectrum.

I'll also say this: I've had exactly 5 customers ask me about the Neo, and now the Scorpio rumors. All of them already own existing systems, and were curious if I knew anything more than they did. GAF awareness and discussion of these kinds of rumors is totally divorced from mass market perception of the products. Until Sony actually lays it out as an available product coming to market, which will get discussions on actual sites and news channels that broadcast that sort of thing, it's all just smoke.

Depending on how they handle their reveals, Sony and MS will have interesting tasks on their hands for the Neo and Scorpio. My expectation is that the announcement of the premium models will be accompanied by price drops of the originals, to bring them to clear cut lines of base model and premium options. Helps to have lines of delineation to minimize confusion.
Click to expand...

Well it's not really handling the reveals, the casual buyer isn't really going to be watching E3 most of the time, some will but even then either or, they are going to have to summarize and not confuse the average joe about the whole purpose of these new "consoles", and how their old ones are no longer a thing. But still an option, just a worse option.

For some reason I think it's going to be really hard to bring out a solid message to the masses with the Neo or Scorpio, but we'll find out soon enough, likely during E3. To be perfectly honest, I hope both get backlash. Mostly because I don't like this idea at all. But that's just me.

As I said before it likely, while a good numbers of stores across a few regions, still may not mean anything, there are tons of stores across all states and territories, it could just be some areas have more Xbox than PS4 interest... For this month. An outlier perhaps
 
C

Cow Goes Moo

Member
honestly you'd think xbox one would sell more given the amazing deals it usually gets, particularly on amazon (despite amazon's lower impact on hardware sell through)

but that usually doesn't happen, so
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
I swear to God, I've already seen this kind of attitude in the past. Especially the report thing shouted from an user, all pointing to great Xbox One sales. Right in these prediction threads as well.
 
C

Cthulhu_Steev

Member
Edson Farley said:
From what I understand I can't post numbers for places I don't work at. The people who actual do have to post the numbers but I could be wrong. But then there's the former problem as well for a couple of them.
Click to expand...

Well, as ps3ud0 (8)) said, you are potentially skirting round insider information here, so be careful.
 
V

Voost Kain

Banned
LordofPwn said:
[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 150K
[3DS] 50K
[WIU] 18K

Im more interested in software this month. Lots of big titles.
Click to expand...

definitively. If you asked me a few months ago, I would have said maybe but not likely, now I think Uncharted 4(with bundles) and DOOM probably have already done over 1 million NPD.

DOOM man, first WOlfenstein, now DOOM, if they bring back Quake and it's good id be a christmas miracle.

*See the pun there?
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Mpl90 said:
Watch out, it could be a vodoo pun! Never forget the vodoo predictions!
Click to expand...

I'll give SalesGAF one thing... Not a month goes by where something... Unexpected... Doesn't happen. It's always flabbergasting and confusing, but never boring.

So we have that going for us, which is nice.
 
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