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[Miniature Kaiju]

The OG versions of the XB1 and PS4 will continue to be the best performers, by far. That might only change at the very "end" of this "generation" when the Pro and Scorpio are much cheaper (I personally think this concept of "generations" is changing, so it'll become less clear-cut...but there will always be a better-performing low-cost option).

Exactly. The PS4 Pro is an added-value higher-margin product. The aim is twofold: first and foremost, to give enthusiast consumers/early adopters a higher margin outlet. This kind of product is a move to extend a product lifecycle through nichification and it's almost never expected to sell gangbusters.

Secondly, it's a transitional product. It will enable Sony to get aggressive with pricing for the lower tier product, if needed, to improve market penetration and will, eventually, replace it. There won't be a "next generation", not in the traditional sense - Sony will drop the OG PS4, introduce a new and improved version (PS4 SE or whatever) that will be fully BC, games will work on the SE and the Pro. Rinse and repeat.

This way, Sony always has two consistent tiers of products that caters to two different niches with margins appropriate to each one.

 

[hanspampel]

Looks like MS is throwing another deal for the end of the year, but it looks like the $50 off systems is over for Microsoft.

I see GameStop is including the Xbox Stereo Headset and a $50 giftcard with any system purchase... it looks like others are including a free controller along with the $50 giftcard.

Amazon is supposed to be doing these deals also, but I'm only seeing 3rd party re-sellers for every xbox on amazon so I don't see the deal.

here:

Best Buy, Amazon or Walmart.com. Buy an Xbox One or Xbox One S and get a free Xbox Wireless Controller.
GameStop. Buy an Xbox One or Xbox One S and get a free Xbox Stereo Headset in white or black.
Target or Microsoft Stores. Buy an Xbox One or Xbox One S and build your gaming collection with a free game of your choice.
But wait, there’s more.
Additionally, most participating retailers are also offering a special online-only deal for a $50 gift card in addition to the gifts noted above.

this is how MS responded to the one week $249 extension from Sony

 

[Quentin]

here:

this is how MS responded to the one week $249 extension from Sony

Jesus is that real

 

[hanspampel]

Jesus is that real

yes, but you only get one of those items as gift. not all of them
that would be unreal

and again. the $50 off promo is gone. so Xbox One S is back at $299 / $349 for this pomotion

 

[ethomaz]

PS4 will fall behind the PS3 in Japan, and not for a small margin.

Yeap but not soon or in 2017... that was the discussion. PS4 lead right now is about 500k and it will increase in next week by possible 100k... after that you have this situation:

PS3 month 36: 122.849 (PS4 Jan)
PS3 month 37: 180.889 (PS4 Feb)
PS3 month 38: 496.598 (PS4 Mar)
PS3 month 39: 296.630 (PS4 Apr)
PS3 month 40: 104.210 (PS4 May)
PS3 month 41: 142.577 (PS4 Jun)
PS3 month 42: 112.033 (PS4 Jul)
PS3 month 43: 100.677 (PS4 Aug)
PS3 month 44: 71.779 (PS4 Sep)
PS3 month 45: 100.584 (PS4 Oct)
PS3 month 46: 145.501 (PS4 Nov)
PS3 month 47: 72.247 (PS4 Dec)

PS3 needs to close this 600k gap until month 39 when it drops to less than 20k per week... in easy terms PS3 will do ~1094k in the next 4 months while PS4 needs to do less than 500k in the next 4 months to loose the lead... that won't happen and after that PS4 will just hold or increase the lead until 2018.

Do you really believe PS3 will be ahead in 2017???

PS. Thanks Chris for sharing the data.

 

[Curufinwe]

Exactly. The PS4 Pro is an added-value higher-margin product. The aim is twofold: first and foremost, to give enthusiast consumers/early adopters a higher margin outlet. This kind of product is a move to extend a product lifecycle through nichification and it's almost never expected to sell gangbusters.

Secondly, it's a transitional product. It will enable Sony to get aggressive with pricing for the lower tier product, if needed, to improve market penetration and will, eventually, replace it. There won't be a "next generation", not in the traditional sense - Sony will drop the OG PS4, introduce a new and improved version (PS4 SE or whatever) that will be fully BC, games will work on the SE and the Pro. Rinse and repeat.

This way, Sony always has two consistent tiers of products that caters to two different niches with margins appropriate to each one.

There will be a PS5 with exclusive games; its CPU will be far more powerful than the Jaguar. The Pro is just there so they don't go 6-7 years between new hardware.

 

[Jarod McChicken]

After being Microsoft fatal weapon for December, The Minecraft bundle collapsed spectacularly on Amazon as soon as Christmas was over. Any similar observation from our retail worker ?

 

[Elandyll]

After being Microsoft fatal weapon for December, The Minecraft bundle collapsed spectacularly on Amazon as soon as Christmas was over. Any similar observation from our retail worker ?

Never quite understood the attraction of the bundle tbh.

Yes, it' Minecraft, but the game is worth what, $19?

Otoh you have a $60 recent AAA, which code you could re-sell if you don't want it for still more than $19...
Based on sales, it was obviously a good choice for Ms, just not understanding the appeal on the buyer side

 

[The Emperor]

Of course he won't. Its Nintendo after all.



As one can see. FFXV legs are nothing to shout about....expected decrease for FF mainline games.



Not on PS4. Some titles even have percentages of 20%.

FFXIII week 3 was in the major holiday week so that low drop was normal.

FFXV has yet to have that week.

Not really comparable percentages for week 3...that's why XV's week 3 drop was good.

 

[Elios83]

I thought that Microsoft would extend their 249$ promotion as well instead they're back to 299$ although with gift cards at online retailers.
PS4 is at 249$+ 25$ gift card at Gamestop right now.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Yeap but not soon or in 2017... that was the discussion. PS4 lead right now is about 500k and it will increase in next week by possible 100k... after that you have this situation:

PS3 month 36: 122.849 (PS4 Jan)
PS3 month 37: 180.889 (PS4 Feb)
PS3 month 38: 496.598 (PS4 Mar)
PS3 month 39: 296.630 (PS4 Apr)
PS3 month 40: 104.210 (PS4 May)
PS3 month 41: 142.577 (PS4 Jun)
PS3 month 42: 112.033 (PS4 Jul)
PS3 month 43: 100.677 (PS4 Aug)
PS3 month 44: 71.779 (PS4 Sep)
PS3 month 45: 100.584 (PS4 Oct)
PS3 month 46: 145.501 (PS4 Nov)
PS3 month 47: 72.247 (PS4 Dec)

PS3 needs to close this 600k gap until month 39 when it drops to less than 20k per week... in easy terms PS3 will do ~1094k in the next 4 months while PS4 needs to do less than 500k in the next 4 months to loose the lead... that won't happen and after that PS4 will just hold or increase the lead until 2018.

Do you really believe PS3 will be ahead in 2017???

PS. Thanks Chris for sharing the data.

One I have noticed is the PS3 has bigger peaks, but a lower baseline while the PS4 has lower peaks, but a higher baseline.

 

[ethomaz]

One I have noticed is the PS3 has bigger peaks, but a lower baseline while the PS4 has lower peaks, but a higher baseline.

PS3 bigger peaks are holidays + FFXII launch (496.598) but I don't think it will be enough to offset the PS4 advantage.

 

[KawabataSan]

nevermind.

 

[cakely]

Yeah it seems like Pro momentum is fizzling out big time. I'm curious to see how it performs in the coming months

Remember, you guys are looking at Hourly sales. The system is sold out on Amazon so it is definitely going to be low on the hourly. No need for concerns really. It is currently 75th for the month of December (and 2 spots ahead of the Special Edition Xbox One S Battlefield bundle which is $100 cheaper than a PRO). Not necessarily setting the world on fire, but still solid for the month of December where people are looking for great deals.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016-12/videogames#4

Pro is selling out on Amazon, that's not an indication that it's "momentum is fizzling" and not a cause for concern.

It's just an indication that Amazon (at least in the US) didn't receive enough PS4 Pro supply to meet the demand.

 

[RexNovis]

It really seems like console marketplaces are stepping up in a big way with Digital sales this holiday season. Surely this well help accelerate the already rapid transition towards digital games in the market. The recent sales are arguably some of the best I've seen on a digital marketplace. Its clear that platform holders are no longer scared of discounting titles more than what is available at retail. Perhaps something has changed in their relationship with retail that has allowed for more flexibility/freedom with their digital marketplaces albeit I have no idea what that might be other than the constantly rising digital margins.

Its a shame that this data is not shared with NPD or the market at large for analysis/comparison. Seems like a giant blind spot for analysis overall. What do y'all think are the chances that we see this digital purchase data shared in the future?

 

[Obliterator]

It really seems like console marketplaces are stepping up in a big way with Digital sales this holiday season. Surely this well help accelerate the already rapid transition towards digital games in the market. The recent sales are arguably some of the best I've seen on a digital marketplace. Its clear that platform holders are no longer scared of discounting titles more than what is available at retail. Perhaps something has changed in their relationship with retail that has allowed for more flexibility/freedom with their digital marketplaces albeit I have no idea what that might be other than the constantly rising digital margins.

Its a shame that this data is not shared with NPD or the market at large for analysis/comparison. Seems like a giant blind spot for analysis overall. What do y'all think are the chances that we see this digital purchase data shared in the future?

Yeah been saying it for a while and still hold to it. By the end of the generation we will be at or near 50% digital adoption

 

[RexNovis]

Yeah been saying it for a while and still hold to it. By the end of the generation we will be at or near 50% digital adoption

Any theories as to why there seems to be so much more pricing freedom on digital marketplaces now? It used to be that the digital prices dropped far less and more rarely than physical due to what many perceived as a desire to keep retailers happy/profitable but that seems to be changing now for whatever reason.

Spoiler

P.S. Did you see my response to you in teh PSN Sale thread? You should def pick up Talos Principal for $8 if you havent played it yet

 

[slavesnyder]

Any theories as to why there seems to be so much more pricing freedom on digital marketplaces now? It used to be that the digital prices dropped far less and more rarely than physical due to what many perceived as a desire to keep retailers happy/profitable but that seems to be changing now for whatever reason.

Spoiler

P.S. Did you see my response to you in teh PSN Sale thread? You should def pick up Talos Principal for $8 if you havent played it yet

Retail is helpless if everyone joins the digital sales polonaise.
What can they do? Delist all games and consoles and leave it to online stores?
This door is now open and won't be closed any more as digital games have so much less production, shipment and overstock costs, so there is much more profit to make.

 

[sense]

really would like to know what the margins are for the xbox one s. i wonder if they are losing money or not.

one of the deals yesterday at walmart was for the 500gb gears/bf1 bundle with extra 50$ gift card and an extra controller for 299.

 

[hanspampel]

Its a shame that this data is not shared with NPD or the market at large for analysis/comparison. Seems like a giant blind spot for analysis overall. What do y'all think are the chances that we see this digital purchase data shared in the future?

about zero chance
right now publisher share digital data. but what digital data do they share?
digital data, other companies already have nevertheless.

so third party game publisher share Xbox Live, PSN and Steam sales. (Microsoft, Sony and Valve already have that data)
What they don't share? Their own store sales. They don't share Battle.net, Origin and Uplay sales. Neither reseller digital codes.
Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo and Valve also don't share their own platform sales data.

Data only you and no one else has is just way to valueable.

really would like to know what the margins are for the xbox one s. i wonder if they are losing money or not.

one of the deals yesterday at walmart was for the 500gb gears/bf1 bundle with extra 50$ gift card and an extra controller for 299.

Slim Skus are made for better margins and costs saving. so i doubt they lose money, especially not on a COGS base. not even on the 500gb model, with lower margins
We'll never know for sure, but here is some IHS Markit estimate for the 2TB Modell

 

[Bluenoser]

Yeah been saying it for a while and still hold to it. By the end of the generation we will be at or near 50% digital adoption

When it comes to new releases, I don't think we will be anywhere close to 50% any time soon. Reason being that there's currently no incentive to purchase via PSN/XBL. They are full price, and you can't turn them around for money if you finish them/don't like them.

For aging games I agree- the deals offered on PSN/XBL are just too good, and more and more people will be waiting for these sales to purchase their "on the fence" games. Look at how cheap BF1, COD, and games like Deus-Ex, Dishonored, etc could be had for in the last few weeks.

Pricing rules all- it always has, and the more quality content you can get cheaper digitally, the faster digital adoption will grow.

 

[MatPiscatella]

Yeah been saying it for a while and still hold to it. By the end of the generation we will be at or near 50% digital adoption

Right now, most likely case is Q2-Q3 2018. If the new administration guts net neutrality rules like they're threatening to, maybe that gets extended out to Q4 2018 or early 2019.

Any theories as to why there seems to be so much more pricing freedom on digital marketplaces now?

Retail buyers are bringing in fewer copies at launch, opting instead for a "launch and chase" strategy. Digital prices used to be and stay higher to protect retail and all the inventory retail carried. Now that retail inventories are smaller (bringing in fewer titles and fewer copies of the titles that are brought in) there's no longer the need to protect those inventories as much.

Its a shame that this data is not shared with NPD or the market at large for analysis/comparison. Seems like a giant blind spot for analysis overall. What do y'all think are the chances that we see this digital purchase data shared in the future?

This data exists and is available for publishers participating in the digital leader panel. More publishers are hopping on board slowly but surely.

 

[chaosmaster(1)]

Right now, most likely case is Q2-Q3 2018. If the new administration guts net neutrality rules like they're threatening to, maybe that gets extended out to Q4 2018 or early 2019.



Retail buyers are bringing in fewer copies at launch, opting instead for a "launch and chase" strategy. Digital prices used to be and stay higher to protect retail and all the inventory retail carried. Now that retail inventories are smaller (bringing in fewer titles and fewer copies of the titles that are brought in) there's no longer the need to protect those inventories as much.



This data exists and is available for publishers participating in the digital leader panel. More publishers are hopping on board slowly but surely.

With these changes in the retail space how heavy do you think new retail titles discounted digitally will compare with retail sales say next year? I noticed this year new titles were pretty much neck and neck with the lowest deals available at retail. For instance can you see next years cod on black friday being 10 dollars cheaper digitally than it is at retail?

 

[MatPiscatella]

With these changes in the retail space how heavy do you think new retail titles discounted digitally will compare with retail sales say next year? I noticed this year new titles were pretty much neck and neck with the lowest deals available at retail. For instance can you see next years cod on black friday being 10 dollars cheaper digitally than it is at retail?

I think parity is the new name of the game. Timing and discounting should be pretty similar across digital and retail channels. Throw that out the window if a particular game has too much physical inventory out there, then physical discounting could be heavier than digital.

 

[RexNovis]

Retail buyers are bringing in fewer copies at launch, opting instead for a "launch and chase" strategy. Digital prices used to be and stay higher to protect retail and all the inventory retail carried. Now that retail inventories are smaller (bringing in fewer titles and fewer copies of the titles that are brought in) there's no longer the need to protect those inventories as much.

Interesting. The argument was always that console manufacturers needed to keep retailers happy because they rely on them for HW sales and the profit margins for retail on HW were razor thin. I wonder what the cause behind the buying strategy shift at retail was. Surely there's a logic behind their lies stock buys or is it just a response to the growing digital market share as well?

This data exists and is available for publishers participating in the digital leader panel. More publishers are hopping on board slowly but surely.

Do you think this data will ever be included in publicly released data in the future or is this a situation of it remaining privileged info for the foreseeable future? It just seems like such a massive blind spot for us hobby grade analysts and it's frankly frustrating feeling like you're missing central pieces of the puzzle.

 

[MatPiscatella]

Interesting. The argument was always that console manufacturers needed to keep retailers happy because they rely on them for HW sales and the profit margins for retail on HW were razor thin. I wonder what the cause behind the buying strategy shift at retail was. Surely there's a logic behind their lies stock buys or is it just a response to the growing digital market share as well?

The margin issue is still the case, and keeping retailers happy is still the case. Nothing there has changed. But, for example, in the past a retailer would buy 6-8 weeks of supply at launch, meaning that they'd buy the total units they thought was needed to cover all consumer sales over that period on day 1. Over the past few years, that has gone down to 2 weeks of supply, or even 1.

This is because retailers want to place the burden of carried inventory costs on the publishers, not themselves. Makes sense, buyer bonuses can be tied to how much carried inventory they have or how many inventory turns they can drive.

It's also called "just in time" inventory planning, and it's impacting all areas of a retail store, not just games. Retail is changing, driven by data systems and cost controls.

Publishers would be hesitant to discount a game digitally but not physically if a retailer had a bunch of stock they were sitting on. Now, retail inventories aren't as big an issue, so parity discounting isn't putting anyone at a disadvantage.

Do you think this data will ever be included in publicly released data in the future or is this a situation of it remaining privileged info for the foreseeable future? It just seems like such a massive blind spot for us hobby grade analysts and it's frankly frustrating feeling like you're missing central pieces of the puzzle.

Well, the inclusion of digital sales information is why the ranking chart changed to consumer spend instead of units. 1st parties and publishers are free to say whatever they like about their sales information, so hopefully they'll become more open about this stuff.

 

[chaosmaster(1)]

I think parity is the new name of the game. Timing and discounting should be pretty similar across digital and retail channels. Throw that out the window if a particular game has too much physical inventory out there, then physical discounting could be heavier than digital.

Thank you for your insight much appreciated! Another question I have is that retailers such as Best buy and Amazon have things such as gamers club and 20 percent off pre orders with prime. Is this something that MS and Sony can implement digitally or is that too much right now to do or Pubs wouldn't approve?

 

[slavesnyder]

I think parity is the new name of the game. Timing and discounting should be pretty similar across digital and retail channels. Throw that out the window if a particular game has too much physical inventory out there, then physical discounting could be heavier than digital.

If inventory is huge it implies that sales targets were not hit. I'd say in that case digital prices should go down, too, in order to get as much sales and money as possible.

But, for example, in the past a retailer would buy 6-8 weeks of supply at launch, meaning that they'd buy the total units they thought was needed to cover all consumer sales over that period on day 1. Over the past few years, that has gone down to 2 weeks of supply, or even 1.

This is because retailers want to place the burden of carried inventory costs on the publishers, not themselves. Makes sense, buyer bonuses can be tied to how much carried inventory they have or how many inventory turns they can drive.

It's also called "just in time" inventory planning, and it's impacting all areas of a retail store, not just games. Retail is changing, driven by data systems and cost controls.

That's an important point. Day one production orders go down as less copies are ordered by retailers. That's a problem for publishers as it affects the amount of early money earned and also adds production costs per copy. Less units produced means you have worse list prices. Simplified like in a copyshop where the copy is far cheaper if you make 100 instead of 10.

 

[Obliterator]

When it comes to new releases, I don't think we will be anywhere close to 50% any time soon. Reason being that there's currently no incentive to purchase via PSN/XBL. They are full price, and you can't turn them around for money if you finish them/don't like them.

We are already getting there in terms of new releases. Many publishers and developers have openly said launch week sales are often in the 25-30% range digital.

The thing I would actually most like to see is MS digital ratio for their first party games now that they are cross-buy and they have doing the 1 week early access for stuff like Forza and Gears. Unfortunate MS don't even include digital ratio's with NPD rankings so I don't think anyone in the world outside of MS internally knows what those games are doing in terms of digital breakdown.

 

[Kill3r7]

The margin issue is still the case, and keeping retailers happy is still the case. Nothing there has changed. But, for example, in the past a retailer would buy 6-8 weeks of supply at launch, meaning that they'd buy the total units they thought was needed to cover all consumer sales over that period on day 1. Over the past few years, that has gone down to 2 weeks of supply, or even 1.

This is because retailers want to place the burden of carried inventory costs on the publishers, not themselves. Makes sense, buyer bonuses can be tied to how much carried inventory they have or how many inventory turns they can drive.

It's also called "just in time" inventory planning, and it's impacting all areas of a retail store, not just games. Retail is changing, driven by data systems and cost controls.

Publishers would be hesitant to discount a game digitally but not physically if a retailer had a bunch of stock they were sitting on. Now, retail inventories aren't as big an issue, so parity discounting isn't putting anyone at a disadvantage.



Well, the inclusion of digital sales information is why the ranking chart changed to consumer spend instead of units. 1st parties and publishers are free to say whatever they like about their sales information, so hopefully they'll become more open about this stuff.

Here is what I have never understood from the retail side, specifically big box retailers. Why do publishers and the big three have to cater to them? Yes I realize the margins on games might be paper thin but they are getting a ton of foot traffic going into their store solely to purchase games. I haven't worked in retail since I was a teenager but conversion rates was something that was always stressed by management. At the end of the day any store needs customers and games are one way to bring them into the store. Retailers should do better a better job to capitalize and sell additional products to these customers. That should be the main benefit to selling games. Movies and Music do not cater to them and they get equal billing/shelf space.

 

[Abdiel]

Something to keep in mind with what Mat is saying is that with our inventory in stores and through our online retail channels (Bestbuy.com or Amazon, etc.), the amount of product we're ordering has changed, but we aren't necessarily buying less overall stock permanently, just less at once. So stock parity is less of a concern for the digital marketplaces now. But inventory management and shipping advancements have changed a lot.

I look at how our stores manage inventory between even just our own internal Distribution centers, as well as cross store inventory. We can arrange to buy products from other stores if we don't have the product in our specific store, so a customer can just walk into the other location, or can have it shipped to them from that store instead if another store has it, treating individual locations as DCs, which gives us tremendous flexibility in our management, and I know most of our competitors are moving in similar directions as well.

This means that we can order less overall stock at a time, and make much tighter orders of product at any given time, so we are less likely to sit on unwanted inventory, and also are less likely to oversell any products. Helps us manage ourselves very well.

---------------------

Guys! We fucking survived another Holiday season! I'm so tired.

Month is almost over. Almost there. Most of the rush is already over anyway, the big immediate crash right after Christmas already happened, now it just kinda lingers from the few post-Christmas sales.

 

[chromatic9]

yes, but you only get one of those items as gift. not all of them
that would be unreal

and again. the $50 off promo is gone. so Xbox One S is back at $299 / $349 for this pomotion

Xbox One S with BF1 is $249.99 on amazon, matching the PS4 U4 bundles at the same price.

 

[hanspampel]

We are already getting there in terms of new releases. Many publishers and developers have openly said launch week sales are often in the 25-30% range digital.

The thing I would actually most like to see is MS digital ratio for their first party games now that they are cross-buy and they have doing the 1 week early access for stuff like Forza and Gears. Unfortunate MS don't even include digital ratio's with NPD rankings so I don't think anyone in the world outside of MS internally knows what those games are doing in terms of digital breakdown.

and what do they have to gain with sharing those numbers and what do they have to lose?
and now ask yourself how likely it is we'll ever get those numbers on a regular base from any platform holder

when it comes to digital sales ratio it's important to note something.
most publisher said the industry average for console games is now at about 30%
this is the average. you can't use the average for every game. the average is at 30%, because some games are in the low 20s and some close to 40%. and then you also have the rare outliner in both directions


the digital sales ratio depends on some major aspects
- the regional differences (us is highest, europe lower and japan lowest)
- the target demographic (core gamer over families and casuals)
- the game genre (multiplayer and service oriented games vs single player experiences, you probably trade in again)
- the platform (not just pc vs console, but also the 3 console platforms. Nintendo is lowest, Microsoft slightly higher than Sony - this is mainly the fact because of the difference in the console owner demographic and regional sales breakdown)
- the price (cheaper games have higher digital sales. many $20 indie games got retail releases just after they managed a huge digital success)
- sales over the lifetime of the game (retail for AAA new releases is still pretty big especially in the gift giving season, but backlog sales these days are pretty much digital only, if you're not an evergreen titel like Minecraft or GTA. Battlefield 4 is constantly in the top 10 bestseller PSN list, but nowhere to be found at retail anymore)
- digital exta benefits (early access, play anywhere titel, discounts for ps+ or live gold member)

Xbox One S with BF1 is $249.99 on amazon, matching the PS4 U4 bundles at the same price.

?? this is what i see right now:

 

[Kill3r7]

Something to keep in mind with what Mat is saying is that with our inventory in stores and through our online retail channels (Bestbuy.com or Amazon, etc.), the amount of product we're ordering has changed, but we aren't necessarily buying less overall stock permanently, just less at once. So stock parity is less of a concern for the digital marketplaces now. But inventory management and shipping advancements have changed a lot.

I look at how our stores manage inventory between even just our own internal Distribution centers, as well as cross store inventory. We can arrange to buy products from other stores if we don't have the product in our specific store, so a customer can just walk into the other location, or can have it shipped to them from that store instead if another store has it, treating individual locations as DCs, which gives us tremendous flexibility in our management, and I know most of our competitors are moving in similar directions as well.

This means that we can order less overall stock at a time, and make much tighter orders of product at any given time, so we are less likely to sit on unwanted inventory, and also are less likely to oversell any products. Helps us manage ourselves very well.

---------------------

Guys! We fucking survived another Holiday season! I'm so tired.

Month is almost over. Almost there. Most of the rush is already over anyway, the big immediate crash right after Christmas already happened, now it just kinda lingers from the few post-Christmas sales.

Congrats on surviving the holidays. 👍

 

[Obliterator]

and what do they have to gain with sharing those numbers and what do they have to lose?
and now ask yourself how likely it is we'll ever get those numbers on a regular base from any platform holder

when it comes to digital sales ratio it's important to note something.
most publisher said the industry average for console games is now at about 30%
this is the average. you can't use the average for every game. the average is at 30%, because some games are in the low 20s and some close to 40%. and then you also have the rare outliner in both directions


the digital sales ratio depends on some major aspects
- the regional differences (us is highest, europe lower and japan lowest)
- the target demographic (core gamer over families and casuals)
- the game genre (multiplayer and service oriented games vs single player experiences, you probably trade in again)
- the platform (not just pc vs console, but also the 3 console platforms. Nintendo is lowest, Microsoft slightly higher than Sony - this is mainly the fact because of the difference in the console owner demographic and regional sales breakdown)
- the price (cheaper games have higher digital sales. many $20 indie games got retail releases just after they managed a huge digital success)
- sales over the lifetime of the game (retail for AAA new releases is still pretty big especially in the gift giving season, but backlog sales these days are pretty much digital only, if you're not an evergreen titel like Minecraft or GTA. Battlefield 4 is constantly in the top 10 bestseller PSN list, but nowhere to be found at retail anymore)
- digital exta benefits (early access, play anywhere titel, discounts for ps+ or live gold member)

Not to be rude, and this is a nice post it really is, I know all of this. I am very well versed in the sales industry.

Still some good info for those that don't know of those things I'm sure.

 

[chromatic9]

?? this is what i see right now:

I checked this afternoon and it was $249. I checked just before posting, the price was still 249. Just checked for you know and its sold out and showing $259

Also how are you getting all those $299

The top one is actually $249 but not fulfilled by amazon and not what I was looking at earlier today.

 

[Toth]

Is The Last Guardian considered a flop?

 

[viHuGi]

Something to keep in mind with what Mat is saying is that with our inventory in stores and through our online retail channels (Bestbuy.com or Amazon, etc.), the amount of product we're ordering has changed, but we aren't necessarily buying less overall stock permanently, just less at once. So stock parity is less of a concern for the digital marketplaces now. But inventory management and shipping advancements have changed a lot.

I look at how our stores manage inventory between even just our own internal Distribution centers, as well as cross store inventory. We can arrange to buy products from other stores if we don't have the product in our specific store, so a customer can just walk into the other location, or can have it shipped to them from that store instead if another store has it, treating individual locations as DCs, which gives us tremendous flexibility in our management, and I know most of our competitors are moving in similar directions as well.

This means that we can order less overall stock at a time, and make much tighter orders of product at any given time, so we are less likely to sit on unwanted inventory, and also are less likely to oversell any products. Helps us manage ourselves very well.

---------------------

Guys! We fucking survived another Holiday season! I'm so tired.

Month is almost over. Almost there. Most of the rush is already over anyway, the big immediate crash right after Christmas already happened, now it just kinda lingers from the few post-Christmas sales.

Congrats brah, must be hard this holidays days on shops =/

How did HD twins fair this holiday? Also 3DS please.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Is The Last Guardian considered a flop?

We won't have data until next month.

 

[Abdiel]

Congrats brah, must be hard this holidays days on shops =/

How did HD twins fair this holiday? Also 3DS please.

3DS? What 3DS. You have to have stock for it to sell. >_>

Seriously. Nintendo has been like, the worst about stock. I have zero positive commentary on anything other than them providing us with game stock. We've had plenty of copies of Pokemon, for example.

Sigh.

As to the XB1 and PS4, they've both done pretty well leading up to Christmas, though I think we saw some slightly higher stock movement on the PS4 overall? I'm still checking everything, but that's my preliminary, and it didn't look like any kind of shutout in any way. The new XB1 deal we have is pretty solid too. Even if the price went 'up', we're offering a $50 GC and a controller. I think that's better than just the previous deal, sheesh. You could turn around and sell the controller and be better off, if you don't need it. We'll see how it does this weekend.

Pros have been reduced, as expected. I will say, the day after Christmas, we had several standard PS4s swapped for Pros, haha. I was kind of amused by that. I guess there was some negotiations in families? Gift cards were leveraged in at least two of those exchanges.

I'll be very interested to see how this goes as we approach Tax season too. That's when see TVs and other big ticket items get more attention, after all. But, yeah.

 

[hanspampel]

Not to be rude, and this is a nice post it really is, I know all of this. I am very well versed in the sales industry.

Still some good info for those that don't know of those things I'm sure.

haha no offense. i know your posts from these threads and i'm aware of your knowledge and reasonable arguing about sales.
it was just quoting you, because it was fitting. could've made the post without, too.

The top one is actually $249 but not fulfilled by amazon and not what I was looking at earlier today.

so you're talking about sold at amazon not from amazon.
third party reseller. they are still cheaper, yes
there is sold and fulfilled by amazon
there is sold by third party and fulfilled by amazon
there is sold and fulfilled by third party

wehen i talk about amazon, i always talk about the retailer amazon, not the marketplace amazon. seems like a misunderstanding.
point is, the manufacturer promotion of $249 from Microsoft is over. retailer obviously can sell the consoles still cheaper.

 

[viHuGi]

3DS? What 3DS. You have to have stock for it to sell. >_>

Seriously. Nintendo has been like, the worst about stock. I have zero positive commentary on anything other than them providing us with game stock. We've had plenty of copies of Pokemon, for example.

Sigh.

As to the XB1 and PS4, they've both done pretty well leading up to Christmas, though I think we saw some slightly higher stock movement on the PS4 overall? I'm still checking everything, but that's my preliminary, and it didn't look like any kind of shutout in any way. The new XB1 deal we have is pretty solid too. Even if the price went 'up', we're offering a $50 GC and a controller. I think that's better than just the previous deal, sheesh. You could turn around and sell the controller and be better off, if you don't need it. We'll see how it does this weekend.

Pros have been reduced, as expected. I will say, the day after Christmas, we had several standard PS4s swapped for Pros, haha. I was kind of amused by that. I guess there was some negotiations in families? Gift cards were leveraged in at least two of those exchanges.

I'll be very interested to see how this goes as we approach Tax season too. That's when see TVs and other big ticket items get more attention, after all. But, yeah.

Do you think I should pre order Switch because it might be another Wii 3DS situation of low to zero stock?

 

[RPGamer92]

Do you think I should pre order Switch because it might be another Wii 3DS situation of low to zero stock?

I plan to take the day after the presentation off work in case that's when pre-orders start in the west.

 

[Abdiel]

Do you think I should pre order Switch because it might be another Wii 3DS situation of low to zero stock?

That's a good question.

Here's how I look at it. We've had a few hardware launches this gen.

Of them, only one piece of hardware became readily available very quickly, and it was facing serious messaging issues, and over shipping of stock. The XB1.

Nintendo does not do this. They barely provide us any damn stock of their active products.

I would say, yes, if you want one, preorder it. If you order through us online, we put a hold for a week or so and then release the funds until it ships or day of pickup, or you can put down money in store (I don't like doing this myself, but some prefer to). Amazon charges nothing at all until shipping, etc.

But either way, this also allows Nintendo to gauge initial shipment, and who knows, maybe it'll become readily available more quickly than expected. But it's going to be an unusual product. It's a waiting game to see how the market will react. I know Nintendo fans will definitely be the primary people to snag it that first shipment. But beyond that... crapshoot.

 

[Bizazedo]

Never quite understood the attraction of the bundle tbh.

Yes, it' Minecraft, but the game is worth what, $19?

Otoh you have a $60 recent AAA, which code you could re-sell if you don't want it for still more than $19...
Based on sales, it was obviously a good choice for Ms, just not understanding the appeal on the buyer side

It was the perfect bundle for my 7 year old nephew .

 

[Nightengale]

Marketing effects aren't rational. Marketing deals are created to take advantage of human's lack of rationality when it comes to said stuff.

People would gladly pay a premium for something with a sticker brand name or endorsement even if deep down they know it means nothing.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

3DS? What 3DS. You have to have stock for it to sell. >_>

Seriously. Nintendo has been like, the worst about stock. I have zero positive commentary on anything other than them providing us with game stock. We've had plenty of copies of Pokemon, for example.

Sigh.

As to the XB1 and PS4, they've both done pretty well leading up to Christmas, though I think we saw some slightly higher stock movement on the PS4 overall? I'm still checking everything, but that's my preliminary, and it didn't look like any kind of shutout in any way. The new XB1 deal we have is pretty solid too. Even if the price went 'up', we're offering a $50 GC and a controller. I think that's better than just the previous deal, sheesh. You could turn around and sell the controller and be better off, if you don't need it. We'll see how it does this weekend.

Pros have been reduced, as expected. I will say, the day after Christmas, we had several standard PS4s swapped for Pros, haha. I was kind of amused by that. I guess there was some negotiations in families? Gift cards were leveraged in at least two of those exchanges.

I'll be very interested to see how this goes as we approach Tax season too. That's when see TVs and other big ticket items get more attention, after all. But, yeah.

Thanks for chiming in. If you don't mind me asking a few questions, how did FFXV do in terms of PS4/XBO ratio and general performance? And did TLG do okay?

 

[Obliterator]

haha no offense. i know your posts from these threads and i'm aware of your knowledge and reasonable arguing about sales.
it was just quoting you, because it was fitting. could've made the post without, too.

Lol all good! I wasn't trying to come off as a dick, it was a really good well thought out post. I just wasn't sure if you thought I didn't know any of that stuff

 

[slavesnyder]

Is The Last Guardian considered a flop?

It was their big AAA release this holiday season with a heavy marketing campaign featuring Enrique Iglesias, tv ads everywhere and huge animatronic beasts in every big central station of the country. In the end it didn't meet astronomical expectations at all and, even more shocking, didn't move any hardware either. The exclusive ps4 pro limited edition bundle was so unappealing to customers in pre release market research that retailers decided not even to list it at all.
This should teach sony a lesson to concentrate on genres that appeal to the preferences of a healthy userbase, make real games and stop farting artsily.

 

[Quentin]

When that 20% digital sales figure is thrown around is it overall digital content or just game sales?