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December 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 10th

S

Sterok

Member
[3DS] 650k
[PS4] 1100k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 1100k

FFXV is top 4. Mario Maker is > 500K. Dead Rising beats The Last Guardian.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Thanks to Mat for pointing this tweet out

The NPD Group
‏@npdgroup
Dollar sales in the eighth week of Holiday 2016 were 16% higher than the eighth week of Holiday 2015. http://bit.ly/2iRwMF3 
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C1hUtqKVQAATvMG.jpg:large


Choice quote from article.

“The eighth week of the 2016 holiday season included two more shopping days before Christmas than in 2015, delayed Hanukkah shopping that occurred at the beginning of December last year, and a shipping deadline crunch that brought more action into stores for online pick-ups and last-minute impulse buys – it was a perfect storm of holiday shopping behavior. Toys and apparel were the clear winners of the week with double-digit growth that more than made up for what was lost in prior weeks,” said NPD’s Chief Industry Analyst, Marshal Cohen.
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R

RexNovis

Banned
So here's a question I've been pondering for a while which Platinum game do you think will end up selling more copies in 2017 Nier: Automata or Scalebound?

It's a tough one to guess but I could see Nier being carried by positive WOM. The question is will that WOM and the extra time on the market prove more impactful than the more mass market appeal/design of Scalebound. For the record I think both stand to sell small sums but surely one will prove more successful by year's end.
 
S

SmartWaffles

Member
RexNovis said:
So here's a question I've been pondering for a while which Platinum game do you think will end up selling more copies in 2017 Nier: Automata or Scalebound?

It's a tough one to guess but I could see Nier being carried by positive WOM. The question is will that WOM and the extra time on the market prove more impactful than the more mass market appeal/design of Scalebound. For the record I think both stand to sell small sums but surely one will prove more successful by year's end.
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Nier is the obvious choice.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
[PS4] 1200K
[XB1] 1080K
[3DS] 620K
[WIU] 80K

I would have posted my predictions earlier if I wasn't "gone" for two weeks. Better late than never, I suppose.

And to answer Rex's question, Nier Automata, without a doubt.
 
S

StrongBlackVine

Banned
Nightengale said:
Nier or Scalebound, huh?

I think the difference won't be big but at launch I'm guessing Scalebound will sell more.
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NieR Automata easily. Well maybe. Are PC digital sales included in NPD now? NieR Automata will have a huge advantage being on Steam while Scalebound is restricted to Windows 10 Store. Plus Xbox owners don't buy JRPGs.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
the window for predictions is going to close in 2 days


so far 43 people made a prediction

28 see ps4 ahead (65.1%)
11 see xb1 ahead (25.6%)
4 predict a statistical tie (9.3%)
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
NieR will outsell Scalebound. It is an easy pick for me. It isn't about NieR surprising or anything like that. It is just about how poorly Scalebound will perform. It doesn't align with the audience at all. The attempt to diversify is good but yeah.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
DriftingSpirit said:
NieR will outsell Scalebound. It is an easy pick for me. It isn't about NieR surprising or anything like that. It is just about how poorly Scalebound will perform. It doesn't align with the audience at all. The attempt to diversify is good but yeah.
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Greenberg will give it the same AAA marketing push as Recore.
 
B

blakep267

Member
Scale bound is gonna sell more. First, don't let Gaf fool you, nobody really cares about Nier. its going to get Zero adverts and is only gonna sell to its fanbase. which is gonna be like 80k opening NPD

The reason I think Scalebound, is 1. I don't think its going to be positioned as a JRPG at all. Even from what we've seen it looks fairly Western. I think its gonna look even for western next time we see it. I really do believe that they are going to play up the 4 player co-op campaign and the open world.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
blakep267 said:
Scale bound is gonna sell more. First, don't let Gaf fool you, nobody really cares about Nier. its going to get Zero adverts and is only gonna sell to its fanbase. which is gonna be like 80k opening NPD

The reason I think Scalebound, is 1. I don't think its going to be positioned as a JRPG at all. Even from what we've seen it looks fairly Western. I think its gonna look even for western next time we see it. I really do believe that they are going to play up the 4 player co-op campaign and the open world.
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Nobody really cares about Nier? You're probably right, it's not remotely a mainstream title.

But Scalebound? Yea, people totally care about that. Kamiya titles just get everyone excited to go take out their wallets and buy them.

Scalebound is going to get outsold by Nier pretty handily. The Steam version alone is going to make SB sales look bad.

Xbox exclusives just aren't doing that hot this gen. Being western focused and aimed didn't help Quantum Break or Sunset. SB looks like something that will get eaten alive by almost any other exclusive.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
If the comparison is just for NPD, Scalebound can beat Nier depending on the level of marketing (And the quality of the game of course).

WW including all platforms, Nier will sell more.
 
C

cakely

Member
blakep267 said:
Scale bound is gonna sell more. First, don't let Gaf fool you, nobody really cares about Nier. its going to get Zero adverts and is only gonna sell to its fanbase. which is gonna be like 80k opening NPD

The reason I think Scalebound, is 1. I don't think its going to be positioned as a JRPG at all. Even from what we've seen it looks fairly Western. I think its gonna look even for western next time we see it. I really do believe that they are going to play up the 4 player co-op campaign and the open world.
Click to expand...

EDIT: Oh, Nier, sorry. Got this confused with Nioh. I know almost nothing about Nier.

Scalebound really isn't the target market for Xbox One. It's single-player and it's a JRPG. I don't see how you could look at that game and think "Western":

latest


Headphones? Check. Magic sword? Check. Dante 'tude? Check.
 
J

jayu26

Member
blakep267 said:
The reason I think Scalebound, is 1. I don't think its going to be positioned as a JRPG at all. Even from what we've seen it looks fairly Western. I think its gonna look even for western next time we see it. I really do believe that they are going to play up the 4 player co-op campaign and the open world.
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Except that's not what the game is. It seems to be going for "this is cool in ironic way" that Vanquish did. If they really try to sell those dumb characters completely straight without any sense of irony then it's going to come across as "this is what foreigners think Americans like." That is not a good situation to be in for that game, critically or commercially.

It's a batshit crazy JRPG. Embrace it.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Scalebound is made by Platinum. Look at the sales of Platinum titles. Now, take that and sell it to a crowd that doesn't care for the genre.
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Nier Automata has the advantage of releasing on a platform where its target audience is. Scalebounds target audience isnt on Xbox One, thats not the type of game that thrives on that platform.

Then it doesnt even get a steam version, people have to buy it from the windows store.
 
B

blakep267

Member
cakely said:
Nier may be a niche title, but it's going to pull in the Soulsborne crowd, which definitely play on Playstation.

Scalebound really isn't the target market for Xbox One. It's single-player and it's a JRPG. I don't see how you could look at that game and think "Western":

latest


Headphones? Check. Magic sword? Check. Dante 'tude? Check.

My bet would be that Nier will have modest sales but will still outpace Scalebound.
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what about Scalebound screams this is japanese? I didn't see anything. The main character doesn't have a japanese look at all, the combat isn't indicative of a character action game and the main draw is you and your dragon companion.

Also its not single player as you can play the full campaign with 4 people
 
P

Primethius

Banned
allan-bh said:
If the comparison is just for NPD, Scalebound can beat Nier depending on the level of marketing (And the quality of the game of course).

WW including all platforms, Nier will sell more.
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If the comparison is just for NPD*

*And thereby the omission of a gigantic platform on which one game is releasing.
 
C

cakely

Member
blakep267 said:
what about Scalebound screams this is japanese? I didn't see anything. The main character doesn't have a japanese look at all, the combat isn't indicative of a character action game and the main draw is you and your dragon companion.

Also its not single player as you can play the full campaign with 4 people
Click to expand...

Pretty much everything. If it's not obvious to you, that's ok.
 
The Mad Draklor

The Mad Draklor

Member
ArkhamFantasy said:
Nier Automata has the advantage of releasing on a platform where its target audience is. Scalebounds target audience isnt on Xbox One, thats not the type of game that thrives on that platform.

Then it doesnt even get a steam version, people have to buy it from the windows store.
Click to expand...

I have a feeling that Scalebound will be released on Steam 3-6 months after the XB1 release.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
NieR will sell more.

The big question if Scalebound can sell more than NieR XB1 version... that will be close.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
blakep267 said:
what about Scalebound screams this is japanese? I didn't see anything. The main character doesn't have a japanese look at all, the combat isn't indicative of a character action game and the main draw is you and your dragon companion.

Also its not single player as you can play the full campaign with 4 people
Click to expand...

I think Blakep is right here. Just by virtue of its design and art direction alone it seems like it will appeal to the more mass market western audience than Nier ever will. So while I do believe it appeals more to general western sensibilities I think that it might not appeal to its platform market as well as Nier will appeal to its platform market. The question then becomes is this a genre/game style that Xbox consumers will support and I'm just not sold on the idea of Xbox consumers buying into a game like this especially considering their lack of support for other new IPs this gen. I honestly don't know. Despite both selling relatively low numbers I think as far as most sold it could go either way at this point.

For the record I was talking about Scalebound sales on XB1 and Nier sales on PS4. Not including steam sales. I think Allanbh is probably right: Scalebound will perform moderately better in NPD but Nier will outperform Scalebound by a sizeable margin WW
 
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