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December 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 10th

Chobel

Chobel

Member
blakep267 said:
Scale bound is gonna sell more. First, don't let Gaf fool you, nobody really cares about Nier. its going to get Zero adverts and is only gonna sell to its fanbase. which is gonna be like 80k opening NPD

The reason I think Scalebound, is 1. I don't think its going to be positioned as a JRPG at all. Even from what we've seen it looks fairly Western. I think its gonna look even for western next time we see it. I really do believe that they are going to play up the 4 player co-op campaign and the open world.
Click to expand...

It's not like people care about Scalebound lol, its last E3 showing killed any hype the game has. So this is a fight between two niche games at this point.

And "Western" and "open world" means nothing anymore, proven by the too many games who bombed/underperformed in 2016. 4 player co-op is the wild card, but everything shown about it doesn't look even remotely interesting gameplay wise.
 
B

blakep267

Member
Chobel said:
It's not like people care about Scalebound lol, its last E3 showing killed any hype the game has. So this is a fight between two niche games at this point.

And "Western" and "open world" means nothing anymore, proven by the too many games who bombed/underperformed in 2016. 4 player co-op is the wild card, but everything shown about it doesn't look even remotely interesting gameplay wise.
Click to expand...
I didn't say it was going to do well. I just said it was going to do so better than nier.
 
Bruno MB

Bruno MB

Member
ethomaz said:
NieR will sell more.

The big question if Scalebound can sell more than NieR XB1 version... that will be close.
Click to expand...

In the end, both games will sell the same.

Who was going to think that less than 24 hours later Scalebound would be officially cancelled, very cruel.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I wonder if some other things will get the axe soon.

This is generally cancellation/studio shutdown season, and we've already seen two major projects (Scalebound, Suicide Squad) get canned.
 
S

sirronoh

Member
Damn. I'm still trying to process all of this.

For awhile last fall with Xbox winning NPD 4 months in a row, I really thought that maybe this is a sign of Xbox turning a corner. And to be fair, that can totally still be the case. But even if the Xbox wins December, I find myself wondering about what comes next.

Scalebound is just one game but it's made me ask what else is there for 2017 besides Forza 7, State of Decay 2, Crackdown 3, Sea of Thieves, and Ori 2? When we seem to get threads every few days about how amazing the PS4 lineup is for 2017 and people are openly wondering whether the PS4 is approaching PS2 levels of awesomeness again (a mighty task), I ask myself where does Xbox fit into this? The 2017 schedule as it looks today really puts into stark contrast just how big of a gap there is in content available between the two systems. My math may be wrong on this but January alone has as much console exclusives for PS4 as Xbox has that we're aware of for all of 2017.

*sigh* I'm looking forward to E3 as always but I'm really interested to see what Phil's vision is for the future of Xbox. In the meantime, they could sure use some good press with an NPD win on Thursday. This is not a good start to the year.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
sirronoh said:
Damn. I'm still trying to process all of this.

For awhile last fall with Xbox winning NPD 4 months in a row, I really thought that maybe this is a sign of Xbox turning a corner. And to be fair, that can totally still be the case. But even if the Xbox wins December, I find myself wondering about what comes next.

Scalebound is just one game but it's made me ask what else is there for 2017 besides Forza 7, State of Decay 2, Crackdown 3, Sea of Thieves, and Ori 2? When we seem to get threads every few days about how amazing the PS4 lineup is for 2017 and people are openly wondering whether the PS4 is approaching PS2 levels of awesomeness again (a mighty task), I ask myself where does Xbox fit into this? The 2017 schedule as it looks today really puts into stark contrast just how big of a gap there is in content available between the two systems. My math may be wrong on this but January alone has as much console exclusives for PS4 as Xbox has that we're aware of for all of 2017.

*sigh* I'm looking forward to E3 as always but I'm really interested to see what Phil's vision is for the future of Xbox. In the meantime, they could sure use some good press with an NPD win on Thursday. This is not a good start to the year.
Click to expand...

Too soon to worry, we don't know what they have in the hat and we don't know exacly how Scorpio will be positioned in the market. Will be kinda like a next gen Xbox (despite running the same games of Xbox One), will be the Xbox One Pro...?

Many variables to consider, but Scalebound canceled will have zero effect on the Xbox One S in the market.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
sirronoh said:
Damn. I'm still trying to process all of this.

For awhile last fall with Xbox winning NPD 4 months in a row, I really thought that maybe this is a sign of Xbox turning a corner. And to be fair, that can totally still be the case. But even if the Xbox wins December, I find myself wondering about what comes next.

Scalebound is just one game but it's made me ask what else is there for 2017 besides Forza 7, State of Decay 2, Crackdown 3, Sea of Thieves, and Ori 2? When we seem to get threads every few days about how amazing the PS4 lineup is for 2017 and people are openly wondering whether the PS4 is approaching PS2 levels of awesomeness again (a mighty task), I ask myself where does Xbox fit into this? The 2017 schedule as it looks today really puts into stark contrast just how big of a gap there is in content available between the two systems. My math may be wrong on this but January alone has as much console exclusives for PS4 as Xbox has that we're aware of for all of 2017.

*sigh* I'm looking forward to E3 as always but I'm really interested to see what Phil's vision is for the future of Xbox. In the meantime, they could sure use some good press with an NPD win on Thursday. This is not a good start to the year.
Click to expand...
Phantom Dust HD is smaller but it should be out in 2017 too.

Oh, I forgot Halo Wars 2 in February.
 
S

sirronoh

Member
allan-bh said:
Too soon to worry, we don't know what they have in the hat and we don't know exacly how Scorpio will be positioned in the market. Will be kinda like a next gen Xbox (despite running the same games of Xbox One), will be the Xbox One Pro...?

Many variables to consider, but Scalebound canceled will have zero effect on the Xbox One S in the market.
Click to expand...

Yeah that's what I was trying to say about my concern not really being about Scalebound so much as it's about how Scalebound made me realize how small the Xbox lineup is.

I agree though that we have to wait to see how the year plays out.

I'm not too positive on Scorpio at the moment because hardware isn't games. You still need solid content to go with those 6 teraflops. E3 should tell us more.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
sirronoh said:
Damn. I'm still trying to process all of this.

For awhile last fall with Xbox winning NPD 4 months in a row, I really thought that maybe this is a sign of Xbox turning a corner. And to be fair, that can totally still be the case. But even if the Xbox wins December, I find myself wondering about what comes next.

Scalebound is just one game but it's made me ask what else is there for 2017 besides Forza 7, State of Decay 2, Crackdown 3, Sea of Thieves, and Ori 2? When we seem to get threads every few days about how amazing the PS4 lineup is for 2017 and people are openly wondering whether the PS4 is approaching PS2 levels of awesomeness again (a mighty task), I ask myself where does Xbox fit into this? The 2017 schedule as it looks today really puts into stark contrast just how big of a gap there is in content available between the two systems. My math may be wrong on this but January alone has as much console exclusives for PS4 as Xbox has that we're aware of for all of 2017.

*sigh* I'm looking forward to E3 as always but I'm really interested to see what Phil's vision is for the future of Xbox. In the meantime, they could sure use some good press with an NPD win on Thursday. This is not a good start to the year.
Click to expand...
That something I'm trying to say since first MS win... XB1 S didn't put the market on fire, or increased the Xbox baseline, it didn't make a come back or turn a corner... four MS wins was more about big drop in PS4 sales than increase in XB1 sales.

The sales of XB1 this year was even lower than last year.

XB1 S didn't increased sales.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
ethomaz said:
That something I'm trying to say since first MS win... XB1 S didn't put the market on fire, or increased the Xbox baseline, it didn't make a come back or turn a corner... four MS wins was more about big drop in PS4 sales than increase in XB1 sales.

The sales of XB1 this year was even lower than last year.

XB1 S didn't increased sales.
Click to expand...

this holiday
the 3 months before it did.
the next 3 months will tell the story
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
allan-bh said:
You mention the game and just after it be cancelled can't be just a coincidence.
Click to expand...

Yes I am clearly the harbinger of doom. The slayer of games.

Please no. Not like this. I was actually interested in Scalebound... T_T
Also technically speaking if the rumors are acccurate it seems to have been cancelled a while ago so hopefully that means I dont actually have game slaying powers. Don't put that curse on me.

slavesnyder said:
Rex, let's test your skills on a higher level.
Could you please mention FF7 remake?
Click to expand...

... I shall henceforth refer to that game as "the one that shall not be named." I don't need that on my conscience. Better safe than sorry.

Also, please forgive the self quote but I made a post in the Scalebound cancellation thread that I think would be worth bringing up here and hearing Sales GAF's thoughts on it:

RexNovis said:
I am really worried about the impact this cancellation will have on Platinum Games. I can't see this ending without massive downsizing unless they can land a new partnership for consistent development with a publisher. Always a sad day to hear about the potential downsizing or closing of a development studio. Sincerely hope Platinum can weather the storm somehow.

Also, this is the second time we have heard about a third party exclusive getting cancelled after relations soured with a 2nd party development partners. Combine that with some of the horror stories we heard like MS creating trailers w/o any dev input and Xbox talking heads talking about features in games that the devs arent even working on and it paints an awfully grim picture of how MS manages their out of house development partnerships.

They also seem to have burnt a lot of bridges (Remedy, Platinum, Insomniac, Crytek) with third parties this gen. I mean its just crazy how many third party partners have completely dropped their development partnerships with MS this gen. To say its a troubling precedent would be a vast understatement and I think it speaks volumes about how they actually conduct things behind closed doors and since third party development partnerships are such a cornerstone of their first party development pipeline it certainly doesn't bode well for MS' future. TLDR: The well of third partner partners is rapidly drying up and they seem to have been bailing the well with giant buckets this gen making it dry up that much faster. Pretty soon their people are going to be mighty thristy.
Click to expand...
 
J

Javin98

Banned
RexNovis said:
Also, please forgive the self quote but I made a post in the Scalebound cancellation thread that I think would be worth bringing up here and hearing Sales GAF's thoughts on it:
Click to expand...
You raise some extremely interesting and very true points here. I would like to add Square Enix to the list (RotTR sent to die). Not sure what exactly Microsoft is planning here. Are they so confident that Halo, Gears and Forza will carry them for the next few years? If so, that plan is already backfiring on them seeing as how their juggernaut franchises sold far fewer copies than previous iterations.

Now don't misunderstand me as the doom and gloom crowd, but I really believe if Scorpio fails to inject any significant interest in the brand, that's it for XBox. I can't see Microsoft investing millions in a division that brings them tangible benefits anymore. Furthermore, they have been pushing the "Gaming on Windows 10" mantra for a year now. So the way I see it, the Scorpio is the last chance for the brand, a final possible trump card, if you will.
 
S

sirronoh

Member
Excellent points by Javin and Rex. Honestly if this is the future Microsoft wants (please forgive my lack of quotes, on mobile), then that's fine - I hope they do well. But I wonder whether it's better for them to just be a publisher and not a platform holder. Like others said, if Scorpio fails, what does the future holds for them as a console maker based on the types of games they want to develop and conversely what will no longer be available to their base? Seems like they are limiting their appeal to try and cash in on the big ticket segments of the market.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
gtj1092 said:
Well it has just launched. Seems like it just prevented a complete collapse. The next quarter will tell the tale though.
Click to expand...
Correct. That's why I said the next 3 months will tell the story. So we know if xbox one s increased the baseline, or had just a good launch period

Trust me said:
And the six months before they didn't. Hence down for the year.
Click to expand...
Because the xbox one s didn't exist the 6 months before
 
D

donny2112

Member
sirronoh said:
But I wonder whether it's better for them to just be a publisher and not a platform holder.
Click to expand...

Maybe they're prepping their console division for spin-off and/or selling off, just in case it can't keep itself afloat. Limiting new investment into it to limit risk if it starts being a drag on profits, again.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
hanspampel said:
this holiday
the 3 months before it did.
the next 3 months will tell the story
Click to expand...
XB1 S life...

- Before it XB1 already won NPD
- August 50% increase
- September 30% increase
- October 9% increase
- November 30% decrease
- December ???

Id didn't increased the XB1 sales base line... it increased the XB1 sales at launch window.

I expect it to be down in 2017 compared with 2016.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
ethomaz said:
XB1 S life...

- Before it XB1 already won NPD
- August 37%% increase
- September 14% increase
- October 9% increase
- November 23% decrease
- December ???

Id didn't increased the XB1 sales base line... it increased the XB1 sales at launch window.

I expect it to be down in 2017 compared with 2016.
Click to expand...

the holiday decline is likely due to other reasons like no big software compared to last year (Fallout 4, Black Ops III and Star Wars) + possible lower stock allocation. This is clear when you just compare those stats with the competition and overall market

PS4 since release of the new PS4 slim and cheaper entry pricepoint:
September 19.3% decrease
October 14.4% decrease
November 28.5% decrease (btw your Xbox One November numbers is wrong. the decrease is 23% not 30 - to be fair pretty much all your numbers are wrong)


So the Xbox One (thanks to the Xbox One S) outperformed the market
Q1 2017 will tell us if Xbox One S increased the baseline sales of Xbox One.
I am pretty much certain it will.

Xbox One sold this last year and Xbox One S should be able to increase those sales numbers:
130.000
248.200
241.500
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
No wonder Sony is in panic mode and desperately copies Microsoft's idea of a white console. I'm disappointed they didn't add holes though.
 
O

onemanasylum

Banned
The narrative that X1 S is all of a sudden more attractive product because of a couple of months is puzzling to me. The x1S is a good upgrade from the large/bulky original x1, a lot of the bump imo is original x1 owners upgrading, there is no such pull in that regard as original ps4 is already good/slim and does HDR. I think people are seeing what they want to see.

The next few months will show this imo, if i'm wrong then I am wrong. The 4k drive is incredible niche and not the reason x1s won a couple of months, heck bluray never really took off and that had many years, streaming is the next big thing.,
 
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