OmegaSmash
Member
Maybe in the Holidays, but not with that launch.
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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
- Thread starter Gurish
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I think Breath of the Wild will carry it quite a bit, especially if they abandon marketing the Wii U version, which they will in all likelihood. Whether it'll be a generally successful console - I'm not sure, it's definitely pricey for the hardware, which is something that hit the Wii U pretty hard. It definitely won't have the marketing problem that the Wii U had though, so who knows.
They should have just waited to release it until MK, Mario Odyssey and Splatoon 2 were ready. Zelda looks phenomenal but is it enough to carry it at launch to the masses?
They should have just waited to release it until MK, Mario Odyssey and Splatoon 2 were ready. Zelda looks phenomenal but is it enough to carry it at launch to the masses?
PinkyMonkey
Banned
This might do worse than Wii U; with the lack of games, a high price, no free online and ridiculous controller prices the launch definitely looks worse than Wii U.
I don't see people running out to buy this, its biggest game already exists on Wii U. Besides the early adopters, who and why would anyone buy this console?
I don't see people running out to buy this, its biggest game already exists on Wii U. Besides the early adopters, who and why would anyone buy this console?
Sword Of Doom
Member
I want it to succeed but Nintendo seems to really want it to fail with the decisions they're making.
I don't think it will
I don't think it will
I think it will do very well, the current launch line-up could be better though. I'm assuming they'll have more titles to announce just after launch, if not before?
I think a console that you can take with you is very appealing to a lot of people. This is likely to be my first Nintendo console since the N64.
I think a console that you can take with you is very appealing to a lot of people. This is likely to be my first Nintendo console since the N64.
Katana_Strikes
Member
I don't think it'll be their last console if this doesn't sell too well. But it would be a huge set back for Nintendo and I don't know where you could really go from there. Mobile route? Teaming up with a competitor or Apple to release a system? A core machine to match Sony/MS ain't going to sell beyond fans and a whole new gimmick is very risky and no guarantee to catch lightning in a bottle. Retailer, consumer and developer confidence only goes so far after poor sales after poor sales.
So- can someone help me understand why 299USD is a bad price point? I'm not from the US (i'm actually from Norway and it's gonna be a lot more expensive here) so maybe that's why i'm missing the point. Anyway. I gathered some information on other consoles introductory prices:
PS4 - 399USD
Xbox One - 499USD
Wii U - 349USD
3DS - 249USD
Vita - 249USD (299USD for 3G-version)
Switch - 299USD
I'm not trying to offend anyone, i just don't get why some people hate so much on the price. I think 299USD sounds about right.
Btw, on topic: I can see it go either way but leaning towards a good outcome with 3DS-numbers. Once Pokémon, Mario, Animal Crossing, MH etc. hits it's probably gonna sell pretty fast. I can definitely see 2018 being a bigger year for it though.
PS4 - 399USD
Xbox One - 499USD
Wii U - 349USD
3DS - 249USD
Vita - 249USD (299USD for 3G-version)
Switch - 299USD
I'm not trying to offend anyone, i just don't get why some people hate so much on the price. I think 299USD sounds about right.
Btw, on topic: I can see it go either way but leaning towards a good outcome with 3DS-numbers. Once Pokémon, Mario, Animal Crossing, MH etc. hits it's probably gonna sell pretty fast. I can definitely see 2018 being a bigger year for it though.
Chronospherics
Member
I think it'll do quite a bit better than the Wii U, but won't be able to compete with other modern consoles. It's not what people want.
Initial sales will be decent then die off after the die hard fans have all purchased their systems.
Initial sales will be decent then die off after the die hard fans have all purchased their systems.
Jaguar Victory
Member
Nintendo will be fine since they generally only sell at profit, but as far as market penetration it will be very poor compared to the other two major home consoles.
I also think if this is truly the replacement for the 3ds AND the WiiU they are in trouble from a growth perspective.
Excuse my gifs language.
I also think if this is truly the replacement for the 3ds AND the WiiU they are in trouble from a growth perspective.
Excuse my gifs language.
Storm Kyleis
Member
I see some great potential, but the price seems high without a packed-in game.
I have no fucking clue. I can't predict Nintendo.
I have no fucking clue. I can't predict Nintendo.
Immaculate
Banned
because you can buy a PS4 or Xbox for under 270 and they comes with a game(s) and a established library
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Because GAFers hyped themselves up on a $250 or possibly $200 price.
GuyKazama
Member
I think even the Nintendo die-hards will balk at picking this up early. If they have a Wii U, they can play Zelda for $60 vs $360+. In addition, Wii U online is free -- so there have to be major updates to Splatoon and Mario Kart 8 to justify the cost. It really hinges on Mario, assuming it comes out this year. Even then, it will be a system for Nintendo fans only.
What this poster said.
Switch hardware has more appeal than 3ds did and has a better 1st year's game lineup than 3ds did.
In its current form I expect Switch to fail hard
However I expect Nintendo to react quickly and drop the price of the Switch massively to £200 by holidays or at the least a £250 bundle with a popular game. This will give it a moderate success. By the end of the generation I expect the sales to be just below 3DS thanks to price cuts and cheaper SKUs like a smaller more portable Switch or/and a cheaper console only Switch.
I also expect the online fee for Switch will have huge backlash which will force Nintendo to give more VC games for free and to be free forever and not for only a month.
However I expect Nintendo to react quickly and drop the price of the Switch massively to £200 by holidays or at the least a £250 bundle with a popular game. This will give it a moderate success. By the end of the generation I expect the sales to be just below 3DS thanks to price cuts and cheaper SKUs like a smaller more portable Switch or/and a cheaper console only Switch.
I also expect the online fee for Switch will have huge backlash which will force Nintendo to give more VC games for free and to be free forever and not for only a month.
TheAdmiester
Member
Only 32GB, paid online that doesn't even have any real advantage, and likely a myriad of Nintendo Fad(tm)? Nope, no way.
In fact...
In fact...
Zen_Arcade
Banned
Because it's significantly weaker than the PS4 and One and those came out years ago. It's also probably not going to get the third party support those systems got either.
It's also not launching with enough games for the average person to want to buy it for $300.
Introductory prices as irrelevant when you have to compete in the here and now. Their competition is cheaper, have more software, actual third party support with tons of stuff upcoming and us more powerful. How us this hard to get?
Jaguar Victory
Member
Only 32GB, paid online that doesn't even have any real advantage, and likely a myriad of Nintendo Fad(tm)? Nope, no way.
In fact...
Ooof. Cut right to their heart.
facetheslayer92
Member
Price is certainly a factor, but not the only one. Its more about Nintendo further alienating its fans with their lack of software support and backwards design decisions. $299 is not inherently bad, but the added cost of online+accessories quickly makes the value proposition seem lower.
The 299 dollars price is OK. The 249 price would be perfect and allow impulse sales and people expected it based on hype and leaks.
It's definitely not DOA based on that price. The launch line-up is the more worrying matter.
Hard to say.
I think it'll do worse than the 3DS and Wii U combined but whether that's a success or not depends on how much of those two markets it manages to capture. Like I said, it won't do as good as both of them combined, it'll probably have difficulty just matching the 3DS's numbers alone really, but as far as Japan's concerned if it gets close I can still that being a big success. People who would have only targeted the 3DS now have a chance for their system to sell to a console only gamer and vice versa. Companies that'd plan to support both the Nintendo handheld and console no longer need to bother targeting two systems and instead just release one game. Even with smaller overall marketshare this could be a good deal, less dev hardware needed, less time/money/personnel spent on doing a port or simultaneous development, one less certification and rating fee to go through, one less title to support after release, the whole overhead of doing business on the Switch should be lower so so long as sales aren't terribly bad I can see a point where doing worse than the Wii U and 3DS is still a success.
Now for the rest of the world, I have no idea. I'm not sure there's an added benefit to western developers in being able to target both a mobile and console here. Nor is there already a decent amount of developers on this side of the ocean lining up to support it and that have traditionally supported Nintendo.
Honestly speaking, I'm inclined to believe it does worse numbers than the Wii U and 3DS around the world. However, I don't think this is the console that makes or breaks this strategy. I think if it merely does a little worse than Wii U and 3DS combined in the West but Japan does support it healthily and it has a healthy attach rate, both console and handheld software sells reasonably well on it, AND Nintendo keeps the same thing going with the next system I think a strong case could be made to Western developers that there's a market there.
As for just myself so far I'm not getting it. I've had every Nintendo console but the N64 and every handheld but the original Gameboy and while I actually hate handheld gaming now and like the idea of the switch, love the no region locking and welcome not having to buy a separate portable I'm not going back to physical games. I'm just not. They're so close to having me but I won't budge on that.
I think it'll do worse than the 3DS and Wii U combined but whether that's a success or not depends on how much of those two markets it manages to capture. Like I said, it won't do as good as both of them combined, it'll probably have difficulty just matching the 3DS's numbers alone really, but as far as Japan's concerned if it gets close I can still that being a big success. People who would have only targeted the 3DS now have a chance for their system to sell to a console only gamer and vice versa. Companies that'd plan to support both the Nintendo handheld and console no longer need to bother targeting two systems and instead just release one game. Even with smaller overall marketshare this could be a good deal, less dev hardware needed, less time/money/personnel spent on doing a port or simultaneous development, one less certification and rating fee to go through, one less title to support after release, the whole overhead of doing business on the Switch should be lower so so long as sales aren't terribly bad I can see a point where doing worse than the Wii U and 3DS is still a success.
Now for the rest of the world, I have no idea. I'm not sure there's an added benefit to western developers in being able to target both a mobile and console here. Nor is there already a decent amount of developers on this side of the ocean lining up to support it and that have traditionally supported Nintendo.
Honestly speaking, I'm inclined to believe it does worse numbers than the Wii U and 3DS around the world. However, I don't think this is the console that makes or breaks this strategy. I think if it merely does a little worse than Wii U and 3DS combined in the West but Japan does support it healthily and it has a healthy attach rate, both console and handheld software sells reasonably well on it, AND Nintendo keeps the same thing going with the next system I think a strong case could be made to Western developers that there's a market there.
As for just myself so far I'm not getting it. I've had every Nintendo console but the N64 and every handheld but the original Gameboy and while I actually hate handheld gaming now and like the idea of the switch, love the no region locking and welcome not having to buy a separate portable I'm not going back to physical games. I'm just not. They're so close to having me but I won't budge on that.
Manmademan
Member
It's not competing with the launch prices of the ps4 and Xbox one circa 2013, it's competing with their pricing in 2017. They will be lower than the switch at release.
And those consoles are substantially more powerful with far more software support, more robust libraries, and mature online networks.
So as a home console...it's a failure from the jump unless you MUST HAVE Zelda...and there just aren't that many gamers in that category.
As a portable it's competing with cellphones which everyone has and must carry, with games coming in at a price point of "free".
This thing is doomed.
You honestly believe Switch is going to match Xbox One in LTD sales?
I just don't see it based off of what has been shown and announced so far. We will have to wait and see though.
If this truly is a console that absorbs the software of both handheld and console from Nintendo and friends then yeah. Like I have edited in though, my prediction is assuming that.
I know what they've shown so far is not encouraging, but I'm counting on the post launch window software.
AkelisRain
Member
My biggest concern, where is monster hunter switch?
Glitchesarecool
Member
It's sounding like they're selling out their preorders so that's pretty good for them.
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
I feel this meme will see a lot of use in the future...Only 32GB, paid online that doesn't even have any real advantage, and likely a myriad of Nintendo Fad(tm)? Nope, no way.
In fact...
orthodoxy1095
Banned
Two interrelated answers:
$300 isn't a bad price, but some people are balking at the extra costs. $300 doesn't get you a pack-in game (what many of us think 1-2 Switch should have been). $300 doesn't get you a Charging Grip for the Joy-Cons, so that's $30 more if you want to charge without using the tablet. Obviously this is also an individual preference, but for those of us that like D-Pads, there's an extra $70 for a Pro Controller. And of course as another preference, for any of us that want to game locally with friends, the costs of more controllers is also quite eye-wateringly high (especially compared to the competition. And to cap it all off, they have an online subscription fee (that we don't know the cost of) that seems to offer less compelling membership bonuses than the competition.
All that aside, there's still the issue of the base price to return to. This is the problem with Nintendo launching during the middle of other console generations. What the PS4 and Xbox One costed at launch is largely irrelevant. The Switch isn't competing with those prices. Instead the Switch will now be going up against bigger (arguably much, much better) game lineups this holiday season at a way lower price. The Switch isn't competing with a PS4 at $400 or X1 at $500, it's competing with the PS4/X1 that's going to be sub-$250 this holiday season with a game packed in.
Jaguar Victory
Member
People are catching on to Nintendo scarcity methodology at launch. Many will be trying to flip it online to diehards that couldn't get one.
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
Put a mainline Pokemon and Monster Hunter exclusive to the Switch and the thing will sell like crazy.
ScatheZombie
Member
Ain't nobody but Nintendo fanboys gonna drop $400 for Zelda in an off-month when the PS4 is gonna have...
Nioh
For Honor
Lego Worlds
Horizon: Zero Dawn
Torment: Tides of Numenera
Nier: Automata
Ghost Recon
Mass Effect
Kingdom Hearts
Persona 5
Yooka-Laylee
Dragon Quest Heroes 2
...in just Feb-April window alone. This shit is laughable.
Nioh
For Honor
Lego Worlds
Horizon: Zero Dawn
Torment: Tides of Numenera
Nier: Automata
Ghost Recon
Mass Effect
Kingdom Hearts
Persona 5
Yooka-Laylee
Dragon Quest Heroes 2
...in just Feb-April window alone. This shit is laughable.
Soulscribe
Member
Maybe if 1-2 Switch becomes a phenomenon (no idea if it can be) and they keep the momentum going from there. But once again it looks like they're going to be playing catch up with supporting this thing, even with first party games. We have Zelda at launch, and then it's just hazy. My hope was that the Switch was positioning itself as a joint successor of the Wii U/3DS so I was shocked that there was barely anything promising software-wise. I understand not showing your cards too soon but this thing is coming out in a little more than a month. If you want your buyers to have a reason to invest in this thing, you need to pique their interest beyond Mario and Zelda.
This thing would be much better equipped if it had more than one must-have launch game, or a competitive price, or more highly anticipated games coming out in the fall (that should have been announced already). Hell even market-standard specs would have offered them more leverage in getting current-gen ports. This reminds me a lot of the Wii U launch honestly.
This thing would be much better equipped if it had more than one must-have launch game, or a competitive price, or more highly anticipated games coming out in the fall (that should have been announced already). Hell even market-standard specs would have offered them more leverage in getting current-gen ports. This reminds me a lot of the Wii U launch honestly.
nogoodnamesleft
Banned
MH goes to established userbase. The switch will be lucky to get a userbase where capcom decides to put it on there.
Manmademan
Member
Precisely. The ps4 (and the xbone to a lesser extent) have one of the most shockingly stacked release years of all time for 2017.
The Switch not only doesn't, it's flat out not capable of running any of that software at all.
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
I'm not buying any of those.
onemanasylum
Banned
Yeah but that means nothing..,....PSVR sold out quick too, so did occulus, you have scalpers, diehards at launch, no idea on shipments with a company that is known to undership.
nogoodnamesleft
Banned
One of my RL friends is a *diehard* nintendo fan. He defends them to the death for the 10+ years i have known him.
He cancelled his preorder today. I was shocked. The guy sounded legit upset about it too. Like emotionally upset about price+games so far+the pathetic reveal.
Parapraxis
Member
Any info how many stores received? I'd be wary of Nintendo "selling out" of anything tbh.
ShadowFox08
Member
The Wii u in US had two bundles at launch. The cheapest one was 8GB with no game, and the $350 bundle came with Nintendoland game, 32GB, and a stand. Nintendo was selling the Wii u at a loss at launch.
We consider Switch at 300 bad, because the storage space is still crap(we were expecting 250 and 300 bundle from the leakers), at that price in 2017, so you absolutely need to shell out $100 for a 200GB SD card if you're going digital. It doesn't help that the controllers are $70-80 at launch, which is much more expensive than prev consoles.
We're looking at another 3DS situation at launch, except that the Switch isn't even being sold at a loss at launch, and likely getting some profit. Doesn't help that 3td party support on march is abysmal, and the online subscription sounds like a total joke compared to the competition.
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