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[dreamlongdead]

Unless they rethink their strategy, I feel like the Switch will perform worse than even the Wii U did.

Firstly, because price - both of the console itself and its accessories.

I wont consider the Switch console until it is no more than $150.

Even then...

Switch - $150
Pro Controller - $70
Extra Joy-con - $80
200gb Micro SD - $50
1 Game - $60
----------------------------------
$410 is a lot to pay for a console that is moderately more powerful and moderately more portable than the Wii U that I already have.

Second, games -
The launch titles are unimpressive, especially given that I own a Wii U (for Zelda).

The only non-launch title I am interested in is Xenoblade 2. I was disappointed in the Mario debut, the city sequences looked and felt like a fan made Unreal 4 tech demo. It wasn't until they got into the traditional Mario worlds that it looked interesting to me.

I also need more than ports/remasters. I am not convinced that 3rd parties are on board yet and based on my experience with the Wii U, 1st party droughts were frequent and long lasting.

I am still holding on to hope for the Switch - hope that Nintendo will figure out how to make sense of this mess. My daughter and I have had some really great experiences with the Wii U and I'd love to keep her interested in gaming with another Nintendo device.

I realize that Switch is a extremely hard sell for WiiU owners. Some of you actually exist!

It sounds like you were (understandably) burned by WiiU, but Nintendo is doing a little better with releasing games than before. The 2017 droughts will be painful, but the material released is highly compelling.

If I pick up a Switch in December, there will be some decent games to play (brand new experiences for most), and there will probably be at least something every month or two throughout 2018 and beyond.

For me, Nintendo will finally deliver with their home system. I really only care about the games.

 

[Bloodporne]

I personally don't think so.

It seems extremely convoluted, shitty launch lineup but again that could improve but I'm doubtful with Nintendo's track record as of late, ridiculous price points when considering necessary accessories and on top of it, it doesn't offer half the features seemingly that its direct competitors offer.

 

[Bolivar687]

It'll have a pretty bad launch, but I see no reason for it to fail in the long term. You all think that a system with Pokemon gen 8 is going to fail?

Not necesarily buy I am interested in seeing if puts up similar numbers when it's tethered to a $300 console that looks awfully a lot like the Wii U instead of a $150 device.

 

[TheXbox]

They didn't make a case for this machine coming out in March. Holiday makes more sense, but they obviously need it out before fiscal. First year will be rough. After that, I expect they'll turn it around like the 3DS. People still buy Nintendo handhelds, and this appears to be their only offering. People will buy the hardware for Pokemon and Animal Crossing.

 

[Papacheeks]

Ayone know what Jeff gertsman and people at giantbomb think of it so far.

 

[ViolentP]

I think it's trying to be different in a traditional market. They'll end up being their own biggest challenge.

 

[catbrush]

You are joking, right?

Nobody asked for HD rumble. It's a solution to a problem nobody had, and it's priced at a premium. It isn't a new concept, just a refinement, and while it might make a cool tech toy, it is not something that is going to make people want to spend $350 (console & game).

Compare to the Wii Remote, which was an entirely new, yet instantly understandable gameplay concept that appealed to just about everyone, even if just as a temporary fad. It was $249, and it included the game that everyone wanted in the box.

I am not joking. Who cares if no one asked for it? I can't judge it without trying it.

 

[Samurai G0SU]

For the demographic this is targeting - the handheld market - the price may seem too high for most.

then again if the games can entice enough, id say itll sell a lot
even just 1 2 switch will be played a lot. kinda like wii sports lol

 

[perfectchaos007]

All I'll say is the success of this system won't cause Nintendo to go 3rd party

 

[SuperLeviathan]

Do we know if Pokemon Stars is still a thing? So many "leaks" about games were utterly disproven yesterday, so that one might be all wrong too.

 

[Distresssss]

I wouldn't really take anything you read on GAF for opinions as anything more.


Almost every big store in my city is almost out of preorders already and even the Zelda Special edition is super limited. The master version was gone a long time ago. That's a small sample size and obviously hard core people like me will buy it no matter what on launch. They should have a lot of stock for holiday and if the Switch gets a lot of mainstream attention it could blow up and be huge.

 

[Davey Cakes]

Price point and focus on really Japanese-y games could break it overall. It still seems like a niche system with some side scraps from third parties. But we just haven't seen enough yet.

 

[hatchx]

I think it will outsell WiiU based on brand and name alone.

Maybe reach GameCube levels. Honestly, if what they showed last night is their lineup for this year, it won't be pretty at all.

1,2 Switch not being a pack-in was a potentially huge, huge fuck up imo. It looks really cool, especially to show casuals, but I'll never purchase it outright.

 

[btrboyev]

If you are a Wii U owner should be very worried. The top two games coming in the next 4 months are Wii U games. And there's nothing else until Splatton 2, which looks to be a minor sequel.

 

[Manmademan]

And the 3DS had a attractive budget option in impluse buy range (the 2DS). Look at how the 2DS is selling in Japan.

Exactly. Nintendo is going to struggle to cost reduce this thing for the same reason they struggled to cost reduce the WiiU.

At 199 this MIGHT sell, but 300 or even 250 doesn't have a prayer of capturing the 3DS market...especially if you have to pay a yearly fee to battle Pokemon.

 

[chaosblade]

Everything is too expensive. The system, the online, the accessories. I think the cost is going to get in the way of Switch being successful. Doesn't look like things have improved much on the western third party front either. And the first year lineup is going to hurt them like it did with Wii U.

Maybe GC sort of numbers but I don't expect much more than that.

 

[Coffinhal]

It has Zelda at launch and GAF hates it, so it's like the Wii, so I guess it will do pretty ok.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syllogism

 

[protomouse]

Yes. The margin on hardware should be pretty good. I don't see how they won't make bank off software sales either. It's the service subscription I'm sceptical about.

They'll make good return on this.

 

[Guevara]

This chart from the WSJ made me laught

​

Almost there, Xbox!

 

[celljean89]

3ds sold bad after launch hype, only after a year it sold very well

if well managed this can sell better than 3ds

If this happens, I'll be happy for Nintendo. I'm just taking conservative guess. I'm assuming down the line it could do really well, and they have Pokemon too.

 

[Wadiwasi]

C'mon people, the 3ds didn't hit 60 million units at launch, and I've seen the things priced at $299.00 for a portable system with really low power. I'm sure it will take a while but people will (hopefully) get hd versions of:

Pokemon
Fire Emblem
Shin Megami
Zelda (already coming)
All of the RPGS (Bravely Default, etc)

The thought of ALL of Nintendo's lineup on one device is going to make this thing sell like crazy. Maybe not now, but once the library gets built up, most definitely.

 

[Suburban Thug]

I'd be willing to bet money that this thing will not get near 3DS' LTD sales figures.

3DS is at what, 60 million right now? Switch will be lucky to hit half of that. It can't compete with Xbox/Playstation as a home console and handheld sales have been trending downwards thanks to mobile.

 

[Fox Mulder]

I wouldn't really take anything you read on GAF for opinions as anything more.


Almost every big store in my city is almost out of preorders already and even the Zelda Special edition is super limited. The master version was gone a long time ago. That's a small sample size and obviously hard core people like me will buy it no matter what on launch. They should have a lot of stock for holiday and if the Switch gets a lot of mainstream attention it could blow up and be huge.

the hardcore and scalpers will ensure launch is sold out. We'll have to see how well it does later in the holidays, since average people will wait for black friday and christmas to even give a shit really.

Still..$300, $60 game, and paid online to buy the little kids a new pokemon. We'll see, I think it'll be a bomb.

 

[badb0y]

Higher than Wii U lower than 3DS.

 

[jjonez18]

Successful enough. I'm thinking it sells on par with XB1 and well below PS4 when it's all said and done. If this version of Switch is what they plan on riding out for the next 4-5 years then this is how I see it going down.

PS4-105m
35m NA
45m EU + UK
10m Japan
15m ROTW

XB1-45m
30m NA
10m EU + UK
5m ROTW

Switch-45m
20m NA
15m EU + UK
10m Japan
5m ROTW

Successful as far as Nintendo consoles. Performs much better than the Wii U and a bit worse than 3DS. This is assuming Nintendo and their partners throw their full support behind it. So Smash, 3D and 2D Mario, Splatoon sequals, Pokemon, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest Sequals and spinoffs, etc... Now if they release a handheld branded version that is tablet only, then I think it does a bit better in Japan. Maybe bump up that total to 50m.

Edit: Guess I'm more optimistic than most and I understand why lol.

 

[BossLackey]

Absolutely not.

This is the Wii U all over again in just about every way.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

If you are a Wii U owner should be very worried. The top two games coming in the next 4 months are Wii U games. And there's nothing else until Splatton 2, which looks to be a minor sequel.

I was still ok taking the plunge because:

-Wii U is in our media room as it's mostly a Wii Fit machine at this point rather than my mancave/gaming room.

-Zelda will presumably run smoother and look better on Switch.

-I sold my copy of MK8 a while back in anticipation of this as I wasn't using the Wii U much after moving it to the media room for my fiancée's Wii Fit use. I also didn't really put much time into MK8 for some reason despite liking it a lot. So I'm looking forward to really diving in this time.

-It's a third platform after PC and PS4 and there's a lot coming out for those this year. Even if there were a bunch more Switch games coming out I don't know that I'd play much more than Zelda, MK, Splaroom and Mario anyway.


So it is a thin lineup from what's been shown so far for sure. But it's enough for me to jump in anyway. I'd be let down if I was one wanting it to be my main or only platform though.

 

[SMattera]

Under 30 million.

Nintendo's last piece of hardware.

 

[Lil'DigiOp]

Enthusiast Launch

Small bump if New Titles are shown at E3

Surge during Holidays when full lineup is available


For 2018?....

Thats entirely up to how Nintendo wants to play it

 

[Zen_Arcade]

No. They're repeating too many mistakes made with the Wii U and even adding a few new ones with things like making people pay for online.

 

[Skux]

It will be Nintendo's last console.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Probably a Wii U level bomb. It has the worst features of Nintendo hardware I've seen: Too weak to be a console, too expensive to be a handheld, overpriced accessories and now, paid online even though Nintendo's online is a joke compared to MS or Sony. I have no idea who the hell Nintendo expects to buy this outside of the hardcore fans, and as we've seen with the Wii U and Gamecube that number of devotees shrinks with each passing Gen barring the Wii outlier.

Maybe a price drop will completely turn around its fortunes like with the 3DS, maybe...

 

[bishopcruz]

Nintendo would have had to do everything right in order for this system to be a rousing success. 3 of their last 4 home systems underperformed and the handheld market is roughly 1/3 of what it was at the DS' height. The system needed to be agressivly priced and have their best stuff waiting at launch. As it stands it's overpriced and has a miserable le lineup at launch. This will struggle to reach GCN numbers.

 

[xviper]

it's gonna be an epic failure and will hurt the company

this is probably the worst and weakest console Nintendo ever made, the graphics of it's games looks identical to wii u

the launch line up is HORRIBLE, Zelda is on Wii u so i wouldn't count it as a switch exclusive

i mean just go watch Splatoon "2" Trailer, it's a joke

i just hope in the future if they don't shut down, they make a console as powerful as the GameCube was for it's Era with no bullshit controllers

it pains me to say this but Wind Waker HD and TP HD looks much better than BOTW

BOTW looks blurry as hell, the game is probably gonna be my GOTY 2016 but graphically it's embarrassing

 

[RobFox64tm]

I think Nintendo will have to make some tough decisions this year. I don't think the Switch will have a good start, even with all the early adopters. The pricing and lack of a pack-in really place this beyond the average consumer and make other options more appealing.

On the flip side, Nintendo needs this to be successful, so whether or not the system finds that success will come down to the concessions they'll make to meet the market half way. As it stands, there's no way this will go well for them, but they can turn things around.

 

[nogoodnamesleft]

I honestly think this has potential to be an even bigger flop than the wii u. And i say that having played more wii u than nearly any other console in its timeframe (not pc),

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

They better announce that rumored Pokémon Sun and Moon port soon.

 

[Scarmiglione]

It will replace the 3ds and the vita as the console of choice for smaller productions and japanese titles.
It will seĺl fairly well, let's say around 50 million units in 4 years.

They still believe they can replicate the success of the wii but that's never going to happen again. They should cater more to the niche that it is still buying their product. I think they could still get some comfortable space in the market in that way.

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

3ds sold bad after launch hype, only after a year it sold very well

if well managed this can sell better than 3ds

That was after a big price drop on the 3DS, though, along with the mea culpa to launch/early buyers.

But I could also see the Switch getting a price drop down to $250 in 2018.

 

[And_Gignac]

No. massive flop. Next Zelda to be PlayStation 5 exclusive.

 

[asagami_]

They didn't make a case for this machine coming out in March. Holiday makes more sense, but they obviously need it out before fiscal. First year will be rough. After that, I expect they'll turn it around like the 3DS. People still buy Nintendo handhelds, and this appears to be their only offering. People will buy the hardware for Pokemon and Animal Crossing.

Actually make sense. When the new Mario is launched the Switch will have a nice backlog of games. Perfect time for a slightly price drop.This is 3DS again but this time is totally intentional.

 

[Rolf NB]

I expected 250$ and sales tracking comfortably above Wii U at the very least. But after seeing the prices ...

Good for Nintendo they got their foot in the mobile business <3<3<3

 

[stilgar]

After testing it, it shares a lot with the Wii approach, it's just a more modern view.

It will work. But you won't be happy with its success and the games that will ensure it.

 

[Suburban Thug]

Successful enough. I'm thinking it sells on par with XB1 and well below PS4 when it's all said and done. If this version of Switch is what they plan on riding out for the next 4-5 years then this is how I see it going down.

PS4-105m
35m NA
45m EU + UK
10m Japan
15m ROTW

XB1-45m
30m NA
10m EU + UK
5m ROTW

Switch-45m
20m NA
15m EU + UK
10m Japan
5m ROTW

Successful as far as Nintendo consoles. Now if they release a handheld branded version that is tablet only, then I think it does a bit better in Japan.

You honestly believe Switch is going to match Xbox One in LTD sales?

I just don't see it based off of what has been shown and announced so far. We will have to wait and see though.

 

[Dee Dah Dave]

I honestly expected it to be £250 here in the UK, with a good pack in to boot. Like Mario Kart Remastered or whatever.

I also expected there to be at least two top games at launch, including Zelda. Then I expected there to be a couple of high end 3DS style games. Like maybe a new Layton or a Nintendogs, something of that quality. Basically a couple of good 'AA' games to diversify the launch lineup. Along with a decent 3rd party game or two. Then a few good indies.

That would have been a perfectly acceptable showing, good even. But instead all they have is a (great) Wii U game and a few throw ins. With clearly not a great deal coming until the holidays. Splatoon 2 will help split that time up, but that game isn't for everyone.

The Wii U had major game problems, and has been a wasteland the last year or so. Nintendo should have had more ready for this launch. And the entry price just compounds the issue. I really think Nintendo have taken what was a great early reception of the Switch with the reveal trailer and pushed their luck on what they think they can get away with.

 

[tr1p1ex]

Thats what I thought the reason for making sacrifices and going hybrid were have shown us.

This launch lineup and launch window lineups so far are severely lacking. Where are the games that a 1 hardware development house are supposed to have? Why was this delayed to March? Why is it even launching in March with so much about this that still feels half baked. There is a lot of uncertainty here for me right now. The only thing Nintendo seems to have gotten right is the look and design of the machine and how all its hardware fits together.

lol. There's always uncertainty. That's why they call it the future.

I see 3 big Nintendo games coming the before the end of the year. March launch gives them time to ramp up for xmas.

I see 2 "new ways to play" Nintendo games which look interesting and have that quirky Nintendo party game vibe.

They also have the MK8 port.

Looks fine to me. I'm sure there will be more smaller Nintendo games before the end of the year too.

If it's their one platform it will sell >50 million.

 

[dragonyeuw]

hence why i said 'easily' twice.

What does easily mean? Because 20 million sales is 'easily', and I'm guessing much less than Nintendo would like. The Gamecube 'easily' outsold the Wii U by about 10 million, and the bigwigs of the time considered that a sales failure in terms of units sold, and that's at a time when you had the GBA running alongside it. So what kind of numbers are we talking here, for a unit that's intended to appease both the home and handheld market?

 

[GuyKazama]

That was after a big price drop on the 3DS, though, along with the mea culpa to launch/early buyers.

But I could also see the Switch getting a price drop down to $250 in 2018.

I'm hoping for this to happen again around the Mario 06 launch.

 

[Herbspiceguy]

Hard to predict how the market will respond. I'm sure it won't be met with the extreme pessimism on display at GAF at least, but I don't see Wii potential either.
I think the concept of an on the go console with easy local co-op features has potential for a moderate success. It has a promising line up for the masses, especially with Pokemon in the pipeline, as well as niche/hardcore titles (JRPG's, NMH3 and games from Retro, Platinum, From still to be announced)

From my own perspective: I think it's going to be a great console with an amazing library of games.

 

[Parapraxis]

Nope, it's going to fail spectacularly. Nintendo will go 3rd party finally, by 2020. (maybe earlier)