• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


Results are only viewable after voting.
Status
Not open for further replies.

Realeza

Banned
One of my RL friends is a *diehard* nintendo fan. He defends them to the death for the 10+ years i have known him.

He cancelled his preorder today. I was shocked. The guy sounded legit upset about it too. Like emotionally upset about price+games so far+the pathetic reveal.

Sure. Your "friend" cancelled his "preorder".

there were no pre-orders before yesterday...
 
I really don't know. I would lean failure, but Nintendo could surprise.

I'd feel better about their chances if they weren't looking like they're going to do the trickle release schedule. Waiting for a good game per season is not something any gamer that has experienced gaming on any other platform is going to be bothered with. Not for $300 + controller + storage +games.
 
Sure. Your "friend" cancelled his "preorder".

there were no pre-orders before yesterday...

EBGAMES australia has had preorders on their website since the original reveal video last year.

Everything i said was true. Had a 2 hour long conversation with him about it all. Why the hell would anyone make something so pathetic up? Not everyone lives in america and buys from amazon you know.
 
I'm not buying any of those.

Doesn't matter what you're going to buy.

Nintendo needs the casual audience that absolutely DOES buy games like mass effect Andromeda to succeed.

We saw a console that only got Nintendo first party games and not much else: it's sitting at 13m units and not selling much more than that.
 
I'm not buying any of those.
Your tastes are pretty irrelevant to the discussion of competition here.

A bunch of those are niche titles sure (which do of course serve the purpose of filling out and diversifying a console's release calendar), but For Honor, Ghost Recon, Mass Effect and possibly Horizon are four of this year's biggest releases.
 

LAA

Member
Can't see Nintendo consoles being a massive success anymore and as this is seen more as a console/portable hybrid, I think it's only going to attract those who want the exclusives.
Maybe I am a being a bit harsh on the price being at £280, thinking about it 3DS was £250 at launch I believe? It's just more of a problem now as we can compare that to a PS4/X1 which blows it out the water performance wise and has a lot more support/games than I think Switch would ever have, and I suppose the gimmick of it is the justification of the price, but it won't work for most people.

The other baffling things revealed recently:

-Potentially no way to charge controller included (at least when it's docked)

-A paid online service for...what? (I honestly don't know where the money is going towards. Party chat may only be through an app? And getting NES/SNES games which can't cost much at all to port. Feels Nintendo has only done it because they saw "everyone else is doing it", and don't really understand what they're at least trying to do to justify that and even then a lot would rather not pay for it understandably. That and they have no proven track record for good online infrastructure, so have to see how it goes.)

I think it will fare better than Wii U though and it is looking to try and "focus" the support it wants, so it's at least appealing to the group they're aiming for. Certainly not appealing for everyone though like they would think.
 

daveo42

Banned
It'll sell better than the Wii U, but less than the Gamecube. It will probably not be considered a success. Main issues being cost and lack of software support.
 

HotHamBoy

Member
I'm mom and dad.

I'm browsing.

"Oh, this new nintendo looks cute!"

*sees price*

"Hmm."

*sees controller prices, looks at their three children*

"Let's go now"
 

brad-t

Member
I preordered it because I don't have a Wii U, am desperate to play Zelda, and think it's just a cool design for a product. But I'm worried for Nintendo. The marketing up till this point had been masterful and the message very focused. But last night's presentation felt tone deaf. Probably because it was NCL and not NOA (but also because the features, price, and lineup were all kinda disappointing).
 

Fox Mulder

Member
So- can someone help me understand why 299USD is a bad price point? I'm not from the US (i'm actually from Norway and it's gonna be a lot more expensive here) so maybe that's why i'm missing the point. Anyway. I gathered some information on other consoles introductory prices:

PS4 - 399USD
Xbox One - 499USD
Wii U - 349USD
3DS - 249USD
Vita - 249USD (299USD for 3G-version)
Switch - 299USD

I'm not trying to offend anyone, i just don't get why some people hate so much on the price. I think 299USD sounds about right.

Btw, on topic: I can see it go either way but leaning towards a good outcome with 3DS-numbers. Once Pokémon, Mario, Animal Crossing, MH etc. hits it's probably gonna sell pretty fast. I can definitely see 2018 being a bigger year for it though.

it's 2017 and not a vacuum. The switch is going against more powerful, cheaper consoles that also have stacks of games, third party support, and proven online ecosystems with millions of users.

A family buying a switch for their kids to play pokemon will have to pay $300, $60, and an online sub now. It's a tougher sell than a 3ds, which struggled out the gate, and you can get more with a cheaper ps4 or xb1 now.
 

Rip

Member
Definitely think this thing has fail all over it. Still preordered for the hell of it though, like I'm sure a lot of others did.
 
Ain't nobody but Nintendo fanboys gonna drop $400 for Zelda in an off-month when the PS4 is gonna have...

Nioh
For Honor
Lego Worlds
Horizon: Zero Dawn
Torment: Tides of Numenera
Nier: Automata
Ghost Recon
Mass Effect
Kingdom Hearts
Persona 5
Yooka-Laylee
Dragon Quest Heroes 2

...in just Feb-April window alone. This shit is laughable.

An embarrassment of riches while Switch owners will be playing Zelda and...that's it. Nobody is buying a Switch in the launch window for what they are charging except Nintendo fanboys and scalpers. The value simply isn't there. $80 controllers, ridiculous accessory pricing, lack of quality software, paid yet gimped online that won't launch with basic features, laughable free game program where you can only play the title for a month before Nintendo makes you buy it (yes, that's real), terrible battery life for a portable, too weak and expensive to compete with consoles, 32GB storage which will alienate 3rd party devs/consumers who prefer digital...

I'm stunned right now. I was SO hyped prior to the conference and have gone from borderline day one purchaser to waiting for it to hit $250 with a pack in game that isn't a mini-game collection.
 
I think the combination of E3, Zelda, Splatoon 2 and Mario will result in it doing well. If Nintendo is expecting Wii level sales they'll be disappointed (especially on day one). I think the most damning thing about the Switch is the lack of REAL support from AAA western 3rd party developers. If that starts to change by the end of the year then my outlook for the Switch will be a bit more positive.
 
Only 32GB, paid online that doesn't even have any real advantage, and likely a myriad of Nintendo Fad(tm)? Nope, no way.

In fact...
v4S5mkO.png
Brutal but sadly true.
 
I watched the stream live during lunch hour at work yesterday.

- Didnt really mind the 300 dollar asking price. Blanched a bit at the paid online, but I figured I can just skip Splatoon if push comes to shove.
- Loved the controllers. Having that kind of flexibility in a portable form factor is pretty cool!
- Saw a bunch of awesome looking games that I really wanted to play (Xenosaga 2, Mario, Zelda, Shin Megami Tensei game, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe)
My faith had been rewarded, and I was gonna preorder the heck out if it.

And then I saw the release schedule. What the fucking fuck?

Having a launch day lineup as paltry as that smacks of desperation. Did they really need to rush the launch before the end of the fiscal year? If sales become sluggish after the initial launch hype, won't this do more damage to the Nintendo brand in the long term?

They had the perfect storm of hype, people eating out of the palm of their hands, plenty of recent exposure due to the NES Classic and Super Mario Run, and this was the best they could come up with? I've been strictly handhelds-only when it comes to Nintendo from the Wii generation onwards, but I was super enthusiastic about giving them a shot this time around. I figured that the worst case scenario was the Vita 2 (lots of niche J releases) with Nintendo first party games, not a bad place to be.

But this? How is the Switch supposed to find a foothold in the Japanese market with a release schedule like that?

Why would I pay 300 dollars at launch for a switch, get Zelda and MAYBE Bomberman, then wait almost 2 months for Mario Kart 8? And I don't even have a Wii U, so MK8 is fresh to me... I imagine a Wii U owner might not feel the same.
 

jstripes

Banned
It's like the 3DS all over again.

Switch will get some momentum once they drop the price and figure out how they're positioning it. It won't be a runaway success, but it won't be a failure and it'll certainly fare better than the Wii U did.

Animal Crossing and Pokémon will assure that.
 

Parablank

Member
At the current price hell no

Nintendo needs to find a way back into the traditional console timeline. Who's going to buy a switch for Christmas when there's a ps4 call of duty bundle for $200?
 

Spman2099

Member
They are going to have do a lot to make this a booming success. Right now, there just isn't enough there to entice most gamers (casual or otherwise). That being said, I am pretty sure it will at least do as well as the Wii-U. Also, I don't think this will sink them.
 

eggandI

Banned
I've noticed few people talking about the Switch on social media. The switch presentation felt like it came and went. I remember the PS4 was trending for quite a while and there was a ton of hype leading up to and after the February reveal.

Very bad news for nintendo
 

jonno394

Member
One of my RL friends is a *diehard* nintendo fan. He defends them to the death for the 10+ years i have known him.

He cancelled his preorder today. I was shocked. The guy sounded legit upset about it too. Like emotionally upset about price+games so far+the pathetic reveal.

Are you my friend because this sounds exactly like me lol :'(
 

HotHamBoy

Member
Had they pushed the launch til fall, when more games were ready, they might have had a chance.

It will have zero momentum out the gate.
 

The Hermit

Member
The Wii u in US had two bundles at launch. The cheapest one was 8GB with no game, and the $350 bundle came with Nintendoland game, 32GB, and a stand. Nintendo was selling the Wii u at a loss at launch.


We consider Switch at 300 bad, because the storage space is still crap(we were expecting 250 and 300 bundle from the leakers), at that price in 2017, so you absolutely need to shell out $100 for a 200GB SD card if you're going digital. It doesn't help that the controllers are $70-80 at launch, which is much more expensive than prev consoles.

We're looking at another 3DS situation at launch, except that the Switch isn't even being sold at a loss at launch, and likely getting some profit. Doesn't help that 3td party support on march is abysmal, and the online subscription sounds like a total joke compared to the competition.

This is false, the only report was exactly 32GB, with 64 at max
 

SalvaPot

Member
I think the Wii U failing, plus the new Zelda game, plus the cool casual concept and mainstream interest, and a smart marketing (The Switch sound alone is brilliant) will make this one and impulse buy for a looot of people.

The price is fine for launch, I can see them gettting bundles for the same price on holidays and they avoid the console getting scalped.

Selling 2 millions at launch its extremely doable, and that is what they will call a success.
 

BTA

Member
I'm expecting 3rd party stuff to shift away from console games towards being handheld games and the kind of games that are on both Vita and PS4, and so on. Which is fine with me, because a console with those + Nintendo console games sounds excellent to me.

So I think it'll do well; I just expect it to do better once they're not primarily trying to sell it as a console.
 

labx

Banned
I wished the Switch stole my heart back to Nintendo but: no games at all. Expensive and a lot. Isn't a proper handheld console so if they are going to burry the 3ds for this... They are dumb. The accessories are expensive. Pay to play online knowing Nintendo online experience is crap.

So yes it will be rough for them.
 

13ruce

Banned
With snipperclips being good for casuals yes.
No more then 40m units like i previously stated thats the max, and this is after pokemon animal crossing and the tablet only edition are out.
 

NotLiquid

Member
I've noticed few people talking about the Switch on social media. The switch presentation felt like it came and went. I remember the PS4 was trending for quite a while and there was a ton of hype leading up to and after the February reveal.

Very bad news for nintendo

Nintendo already had all the build up and hype back when it was initially revealed. It was talked about everywhere when that happened.

This conference was held at an inconvenient time so there's not going to be as much social media buzz about it other than the announcements people will be reading about the following day. The jury's out on whether the positive mindshare they had from the reveal is gone since GAF isn't a great metric by itself.
 

Anth0ny

Member
I think even the Nintendo die-hards will balk at picking this up early. If they have a Wii U, they can play Zelda for $60 vs $360+. In addition, Wii U online is free -- so there have to be major updates to Splatoon and Mario Kart 8 to justify the cost. It really hinges on Mario, assuming it comes out this year. Even then, it will be a system for Nintendo fans only.

I consider myself a diehard Nintendo fan, I picked up Wii U day one, no questions asked.

I won't be buying a Switch day one. $399 + $80 for Zelda + $90 for pro controller in Canada is just unfathomable when I could get literally the only game I care about at launch, Zelda, on a console I already own for $60.
 

cakely

Member
I had practically no expectations for the Switch, but I did expect the the price to be $300, since it's filling the role of the next Nintendo console.

To answer OP: I have no idea. I thought the iPad would be an obvious failure and here we are.
 

Roufianos

Member
Based on the price and simply awful launch line up, I think it will do less than the Wii U first year.

Can't say beyond that, I still think the premise is neat so I can see it taking off with a price cut and maybe even a revision with a longer battery life.

Also it depends if this thing is actually going to unify Nintendo's console / handheld output. Based on the shitty first year, I don't think that's the case.
 
I expected $300 and considering the fact that it has a built in screen i'm shocked anyone actually expected $250 or less

Also specs havent been confirmed have they? We don't really know exactly how it stacks up to xb1/ps4
 

.polybius

Neo Member
Two interrelated answers:

$300 isn't a bad price, but some people are balking at the extra costs. $300 doesn't get you a pack-in game (what many of us think 1-2 Switch should have been). $300 doesn't get you a Charging Grip for the Joy-Cons, so that's $30 more if you want to charge without using the tablet. Obviously this is also an individual preference, but for those of us that like D-Pads, there's an extra $70 for a Pro Controller. And of course as another preference, for any of us that want to game locally with friends, the costs of more controllers is also quite eye-wateringly high (especially compared to the competition. And to cap it all off, they have an online subscription fee (that we don't know the cost of) that seems to offer less compelling membership bonuses than the competition.

All that aside, there's still the issue of the base price to return to. This is the problem with Nintendo launching during the middle of other console generations. What the PS4 and Xbox One costed at launch is largely irrelevant. The Switch isn't competing with those prices. Instead the Switch will now be going up against bigger (arguably much, much better) game lineups this holiday season at a way lower price. The Switch isn't competing with a PS4 at $400 or X1 at $500, it's competing with the PS4/X1 that's going to be sub-$250 this holiday season with a game packed in.

You're right- this is a really good point. I still think some people need to understand that this is, in fact, a new console- and it's obviously not gonna launch at 199$. Yes, it would be awesome and it would probably sell more units, but it's just a little outlandish in my opinion. I'm 100% agreeing on the launch game-lineup being pretty bland (except zelda which looks amazing), so the value proposition is a lot weaker than a PS4 or an XBONE. But i think that people who thinks that 299$ is too much for the Switch should just wait- just like i did with the PS4. I waited until the great games were there and when the price was a little lower.

PS: Seems like the charger grip is included in the package. Rejoice!:)
 

Maniel

Banned
I feel like this system will lag for a bit until pokemon drops, and then it will start to pick up the pace. It can pull itself together eventually with a redesign that makes it more portable and higher power. This all depends on whether Nintendo decides to stick out the rough period and not just call it quits before then.
 

PeterGAF

Banned
I think it will be a success in the sense that it will sell enough to get by at least, but I expect the Switch to get off to a slow start. There doesn't seem to be a lot in year 1. E3 could have some surprises in store but who knows.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom