-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
This is smallest amount of Switches - Splatoon 2 will move in it's first two weeks if there is no shortages of the device.
Summer time is also summer vacation, Nintendo is banking on a bunch of kids forming squads in parks and cafes. 2DS/3DS are really the devices that are kids orientated yet the Wii U has had arguably the biggest Online Game(in terms of concurrent users) that Nintendo has made. Sure the price is pretty high Y5,000 more than 3DS launch price but Splatoon moved Wii Us for an year until "shortages" and pretty much Splatoon was the only game that people constantly bought not MK8, not SMM... just Splatoon & Minecraft. There is no doubt it would be have passed 2 million if there weren't shortages and Minecraft could have had a very high adoption on the Wii U if there was a port earlier.
Minecraft/Splatoon Bundle for Y35,000 in the summer and enough stock and you've got yourself a winner. There hasn't been a Minecraft for the 3DS(Vita is a beneficiary) and there won't be one
point is nintendo handhelds dont just dissapear even after a slow start
the switch isn't going to need rebranding or relaunching if it has a slow start
The point is that it didnt have much to do with the quality of the game. Compare MK8 to MK Wii - did MK8 also perform worse than the Wii game because Nintendo could have developed a better Mario Kart title on WiiU ? I dont think so.
mario sales were capped by hardware sales but the quick releases of mario games on both the 3ds/wii u definitely didn't help either
its a bit of both
the difference is he's having a civil discussion
while u read into things watever way u want all in the name of console wars
I...dont know what to say
Neither a multimillion franchise as Animal crossing or Dragon quest or pokemon do that for a 29000¥ console in May :/
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
Splatoon will definitely move a couple hundred thousand systems when it comes out, if nothing else.
500,000 in two weeks during the summer is definitely fantasy, though.
500,000 in two weeks during the summer is definitely fantasy, though.
hanspampel
Banned
Not 500k launch week, but I'm sure 500k in the first 3 weeks of splatoon 2 launch is possible with a well priced bundle
Splatoon 2 will be an interesting release - we really need to know how much Nintendo is charging for online down the line and how the local coop situation will develop. The potential is there, lets see how the audience responds.
The thing is - the only reference point we have are the incredible successful Wii/DS games. We actually dont know if the games would have performed much better if there was more time between them.
The games tend to have long legs and sell over the whole generation - so lackluster first week sales at the end are only a small portion of the lifetime game sales.
That why i said for what it was it performed well - it was the same but better, had more competition and was on a less successful system".
Im not even defending NSMB2 performance, since i wasnt a big - just dont think the Wii/DS NSMB games performance are in any way the standard for 2D Mario platforms While selling +1m copies in its first week has been the standard for FF maingames for multiple generations now. .
I agree with your main point - but you made it sound like Nintendo could have recreated the Wii/DS type sales situation if they just developed a better or more different 2D Mario. I dont think thats true.
Everything came perfectly together for the NSMB DS/Wii releases - something we havent seen since the Original Famicom. Sure they could have deliver more inspired follow ups, but i dont think they would have performed much better give the installed base and audience on both systems.
The thing is - the only reference point we have are the incredible successful Wii/DS games. We actually dont know if the games would have performed much better if there was more time between them.
The games tend to have long legs and sell over the whole generation - so lackluster first week sales at the end are only a small portion of the lifetime game sales.
That why i said for what it was it performed well - it was the same but better, had more competition and was on a less successful system".
Im not even defending NSMB2 performance, since i wasnt a big - just dont think the Wii/DS NSMB games performance are in any way the standard for 2D Mario platforms While selling +1m copies in its first week has been the standard for FF maingames for multiple generations now. .
I agree with your main point - but you made it sound like Nintendo could have recreated the Wii/DS type sales situation if they just developed a better or more different 2D Mario. I dont think thats true.
Everything came perfectly together for the NSMB DS/Wii releases - something we havent seen since the Original Famicom. Sure they could have deliver more inspired follow ups, but i dont think they would have performed much better give the installed base and audience on both systems.
So Nintendo can sell whatever they want, if suddenly they say it is their portable system
Everything else doesnt matter
Not the price nor the softwares and not only mass market will buy it but also third parties will also suddenly start to support it with their bigger hits
Mmmmok?
ethomaz
Banned
In US that is a way bigger market than Japan... to be fair it is comparable close to all EU markets combined.
It did 310k in Japan in first week.
hanspampel
Banned
Switch will be the same the question is what will be happening in May/June.
mario is a special case where its very tied to how their hardware sales, more so than any other big franchises, first or third party
no i dont think its sales would have improved if given more time, in the end the 3ds and wii u only recieved one mainline 2d mario, so a delay in release would only delay a purchase for either systems
sales slowed when hardware was slow, so this shows hardware sales were the bigger factor, either way nintendo had no choice, they had to release something for the wii u to help sales
ff is in a worse position, i dont think anyone will argue otherwise
sure, i totally said all that
If you think that switch won't do 250.000 at launch and 1.5million its first year, tell me which numbers do you think it'll do. I can assure you that there won't be any Pokemon switch bundle this year in Japan, so go! I'll save your numbers and we'll see if you move goalposts or no
ethomaz
Banned
Switch will sell 1 million first day in US??? I hardly doubt that... I huge doubt that.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
It also something that is played prior to launch that is evidently missing with the Switch. No one said announce every game in development.
Not this stuff again. You know thats the exact thing people said when games like MvCI were announced, not for Switch: they're saving the announcement for the reveal and then look what happened. No doubt there are still cards to be played, that is true for every console, what is being said here is that the cards shown at the reveal, do not show much promise.
Switch will do 1 million in US in 24 hours......lol
XB1 was a WW number.
hanspampel
Banned
no switch will do 1 million worldwide in 24 hours
yeah i know that. that is why i said ps4 was us only
If you think that switch won't do 250.000 at launch and 1.5million its first year, tell me which numbers do you think it'll do. I can assure you that there won't be any Pokemon switch bundle this year in Japan, so go! I'll save your numbers and we'll see if you move goalposts or no
I said imho it will sell those numbers (250k first week, 1,5 Million YtD ) if no substantial change will happen (price cut or bundle?, MH or Pokemon main chapters announced and so on)
Switch will have 10 months on the market to get its first YtD total, with just one holiday season counting (March to end of december )
So, without changes we dont know yet and secret super games hidden somewhere, at the same wiiu price point, with less time on the market and one holiday season only, yes I see it doing wiiu tier numbers
Would be good to know the reasoning behind a more positive projection based on actual known facts and not assumption or supposed secret games
ethomaz
Banned
That is not the same lolno switch will do 1 million worldwide in 24 hours
yeah i know that. that is why i said ps4 was us only
Well, there's this bit that needs to clarified: when the 3rd party segment was introduced, it was said that there are over 80 games in "active development". The problem is that it's unclear if that was a specific reference to third party games or in general (so, including Nintendo games). Anyway, even assuming Nintendo games are included, going by this
http://neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1333617
There are at least 20 more titles, between Nintendo, indies and third party developers we're not aware of yet. Of course, the amount should increase as time goes by, but I wonder how many of these unannounced titles are from Japanese third party developers.
hanspampel
Banned
for real? /s
the guy said just that 1million in 24 hours feels surreal
i made it clear, that basically all consoles these days sell 1million in 24 hours
ps4 did it us only
xbox one ww
and switch will do it ww, too
im counting wii u's launch sales + a full year in sales
never the less i never made any prediction on switch sales, but ill entertain u and say it'll sell more than 1.5m with just those 10 months on sale
i base this on the fact that it's selling as a hybrid, people tend to say its bad as a handheld and a home console, ill go the other way and say it'll help sales instead
i base this on the fact that this is the only nintendo system going forward, so nintendo will do as much as they can to ensure it has good sales, at the least better than wii u level of sales
i base this on the fact that third party support is already better and more promising than watever the wii u ever recieved, first party also
i base this on the fact that nintendo hasn't been announcing games well in advance for awhile now, so it makes sense they'll release unannounced games in the rest of the year, so the assumptions are actually from u
this is wat u call assumptions my friend
not just the fact that u assume these things wont/will happen, but also the fact that ur assuming this is wat im thinking
u can lowball switch sales all u want, but surely even u can see that a wii u level of performance sounds pretty ridiculous no?
A small update: Arc System Works's news page mentions not only Blazblue, but also a Frontier Days game for Switch. The original was a 3DS eShop game, and this is going to be an "expanded version".
http://www.arcsystemworks.jp/portal/post-3547/
thestopsign
Member
March: 600k (Nintendo die hards at launch, has full month ~350k, ~120k, ~75k, ~40k)
April: 120k (Mario Kart last week)
May: 100k (Mario Kart leftovers)
June: 80k (nothing? Maybe Splatoon 2)
July: 200k (Splatoon 2 sometime before August holidays)
August: 120k (holidays and Splatoon splash)
September: 80k
October: 90k
November: 240k
December: 760k
Rough estimate of what I expect with current known lineup. Probably will be horribly wrong.
April: 120k (Mario Kart last week)
May: 100k (Mario Kart leftovers)
June: 80k (nothing? Maybe Splatoon 2)
July: 200k (Splatoon 2 sometime before August holidays)
August: 120k (holidays and Splatoon splash)
September: 80k
October: 90k
November: 240k
December: 760k
Rough estimate of what I expect with current known lineup. Probably will be horribly wrong.
DarkLordMalik
Member
3DS has a long life in front of it. They're going to coexist just fine." - Reggie
If anyone still has doubts that Pokemon Stars will be a Switch exclusive.
2017 is ripe for a price drop that was rumored back in 2016. So yeh, price drop + one last hurrah for 3DS in 2017 means we will see stable sales for the most part.
2018 and onwards, Switch will be the one taking full focus while 3DS goes in the backseat.
If anyone still has doubts that Pokemon Stars will be a Switch exclusive.
2017 is ripe for a price drop that was rumored back in 2016. So yeh, price drop + one last hurrah for 3DS in 2017 means we will see stable sales for the most part.
2018 and onwards, Switch will be the one taking full focus while 3DS goes in the backseat.
Can we really expect a lot of Mario Kart? It really doesn't seem to add all that much outside of the revamped battle mode. Why would people who already own it on Wii U buy a Switch to play it? Why would people who didn't want to buy a Wii U to play Mario Kart 8 buy a Switch for what is mostly the same game?
I might be a bit too pessimistic when it comes to the Switch (and Splatoon 2 and Mario Kart DX in particular), but I just don't see the huge appeal yet.
I might be a bit too pessimistic when it comes to the Switch (and Splatoon 2 and Mario Kart DX in particular), but I just don't see the huge appeal yet.
It's not just a different 2D Mario. Nintendo games are make or break for their consoles. You can't create buzz for a home console in Japan when you offer more of the same and not something different comparing to handhelds. Wii took off at first years because of motion controls, not because of traditional games.
Even at the traditional games Wii U had nothing innovating to offer and it failed badly
NSMB2 <-> NSMBU
SM3DL <-> SM3DW
MK7 <-> MK8
SSB3DS <-> SSBWiiU
ACNL <-> never mind
And all of them came later than 3DS brothers. With NSMBU especially it looked like a suicide. If Splatoon hadn't happened the system would be dead years ago.
What you can expect from Mario Kart is to fill the schedule until Splatoon. Like I said before the big advantage is it was on Wii U.
Sure, if Reggie said it.
Both are poor value propositions, but what about those who didn't get a WiiU (most of the human race) who decide to get a Switch for reasons other than Mario Kart, and their last Mario Kart was the 3DS or Wii ones?
No. You said this:
And now you're saying this:
So the only serious response you should be given is this:
And when Switch sells more than 300.000 units on its first week (as almost every other console in Japan did at launch) or more than 1.5million YTD you should be mocked because your last alarmist posts (not only in this thread) are ridiculous.
hanspampel
Banned
What about the new battle arena modes? Me and my friends only played that in our youth (and still)
Could that convince double dipper?
Or is double dipping and buying remaster / complete editions not that big in the east compared to the west?
Could that convince double dipper?
Or is double dipping and buying remaster / complete editions not that big in the east compared to the west?
No. You said this:
And now you're saying this:
So the only serious response you should be given is this:
And when Switch sells more than 300.000 units on its first week (as almost every other console in Japan did at launch) or more than 1.5million YTD you should be mocked because your last alarmist posts (not only in this thread) are ridiculous.
Wow you really have an agenda right there
249k first week/1,499,000 units within end of december AT TODAYS CONDITIONS
lets see your projections, shall we?
Maybe with some actual sharable reasoning behind that is not "obvious secret mega game X"
Also bevande my alarmist posts from the last weeks have been spot on with what they actually presented (high price, few games even first party despite the launch delay into March "to have many games alongside the console", no real fact supporting and comunicating the hybrid concept with teams and brands merging with the portable side of things, no sign of third party support with usual japanese portable franchises aka MH despite XX being released on March 17/18 and so on)
The only replies I see are "they obviously will come"
Lets see how things will turn out but note that if I am wrong and Switch will sell good numbers without any significant change /addition to what they showed, I will be mocked, but I will be happy
StereoVsn
Member
Umm, isn't the supply 2 million WW till end of March? Plus Nintendo loves to generate hype using scarcity at launch. I am not certain there will be 1 million units in US to sell. Japan will prrobanly get half the allocation and the rest will be split across NA and Europe.
Switch is a bad value proposition with bad decisions and should feel bad. After reflecting and coming down from Zelda, Mario, Xeno, Arms, etc, not sure I can justify buying something at launch with so many dumbs mistakes.
In their big board meetings with powerpoints about why "Switch will sell X well" I wonder what their big bullet points were. Like, what's the hook? Easy home and away gaming? I guess for Japan. Get casuals back? Hope not, and they only really had 1,2 Switch for casuals which looks some garbage.Their software lineup? I thought it was this until the lack of launch games was revealed.
And then there's Mario Sports Superstar, which I don't understand. Should've been a switch launch game. It has Tennis, Golf, Baseball, and Soccer so I figured they're killing/consolidating those franchises going forward. I thought it was going to be their main sports title now. 3DS has a big install base, but sports game vary hugely on the 3DS so far it's install base guarantees nothing. (See games like Mario Golf bombing compared to Tennis in 3DS heyday.)
On the Switch it'd be in the spotlight 10 fold and you'd have a Mario game at launch.
Zelda making it hard though.
In their big board meetings with powerpoints about why "Switch will sell X well" I wonder what their big bullet points were. Like, what's the hook? Easy home and away gaming? I guess for Japan. Get casuals back? Hope not, and they only really had 1,2 Switch for casuals which looks some garbage.Their software lineup? I thought it was this until the lack of launch games was revealed.
And then there's Mario Sports Superstar, which I don't understand. Should've been a switch launch game. It has Tennis, Golf, Baseball, and Soccer so I figured they're killing/consolidating those franchises going forward. I thought it was going to be their main sports title now. 3DS has a big install base, but sports game vary hugely on the 3DS so far it's install base guarantees nothing. (See games like Mario Golf bombing compared to Tennis in 3DS heyday.)
On the Switch it'd be in the spotlight 10 fold and you'd have a Mario game at launch.
I don't have any agenda here, just find amusing the quantity of ridiculous comments made by the usual suspects in every MC thread.
I already gave my sales projections: between 2 and 2.5m YTD (launch week could be in the 250-350.000 ballpark but I think it'll be closer to 350 than 250). Even if I don't think your posts deserve a serious answer, I'll try to give you one.
(Confirmed) Reasons:
- It'll have 10 months to sell in 2017.
- Even not having the hype of the Wii it also doesn't have the negativity surrounding the Wii U so I expect better numbers than the Wii U (being cheaper than the Premium Wii U set at launch will also help).
- It'll have at launch the first Zelda in more than 5 years (Wii U version will be non existent there), a complete version of one of the only million sellers this generation (Mario Kart 8), the sequel to the game that resurrected the Wii U for 7 months and sold 1.5 million in Summer (so it has at least 4 months of riding the hype) and a new 3D Mario for Christmas.
(Non Confirmed) Reasons:
- Maybe Dragon Quest XI launches in 2017 (that's a system seller right there even if it launches in 3 different systems).
- Bundles and Limited/Color editions (something that didn't happen with the Wii U besides the Wind Waker one because they had 10 million consoles in the closet).
As you can see I didn't take into account any price cut (95% sure there won't be any in 2017... barring a disaster situation) or any unannounced million seller game.
Now, let's play numbers (*):
- Let's take my lowest number (2 million) and calculate the average that Switch should sell to get this number in 2017 (43 weeks) --> 46.511/week.
- Now we'll take the Wii U launch (4 weeks) and PS4 launch (also 4 weeks) to see where Switch could end in its first 4 weeks. Wii U did 638.000 (holidays) and PS4 did 434.000 (February, pretty similar to the Switch). Would you agree that Switch can sell 500.000 in its first month? I think so.
- Now we'll see December: Wii U launched in December of 2012 so it shouldn't count. We'll take December 2013 (318.000 units sold), December 2014 (142.000 units sold) and December 2015 (253.000 units sold). Let's calculate the average: 237.666 units sold. It's ok if we put that as the first holiday for Switch? (even if I think it'll sell more than that).
- So with 500.000 units in its first month and 237.000 units for December, the average for the rest of the weeks in 2017 is 36.085/week. It's still a high average but remember that Splatoon took a dead Wii U to sell double digits for 7 consecutive months, there should be spikes with limited editions and any bundle Nintendo could do in October (but nothing crazy as a Pokemon bundle, more like a familiar bundle just like the Wii U Party one) and things that are still not announced because we are still in January and the year just started.
If you're basing everything with only the information you have right now then you never followed Nintendo announcements and releases. Every January the 3DS games list seemed barren and every year 3DS ended with several million sellers and topping every software chart in Japan. If you really think that Nintendo will only launch Splatoon 2 in Summer and then nothing until holidays with Mario Odyssey... then your posts are more ridiculous than I thought, sorry.
(*) Sorry for any miscalculation.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Wow... this thread has gotten terrible... eek.... "The Switch is going to fail and sell only 2 units EVER vs. IT'S GOING TO SELL BILLIONS" >_> (yes I'm adding a bit of hyperbole, but the discussions are getting to that level).
What are the reactions to Splatoon 2? Apart from the flipping mechanic, it's hard to tell the difference from the first game in all honesty. I know they've changed all the super weapons and what not, have different maps, etc. but it looks more like a Splatoon 1.5 on first glance, mostly due to the (nearly) identical graphics style. Have they mentioned what the local multiplayer options are for the game? A good 1v1 mode or something? I do think the portability is nice, but like other folks mentioned, I feel like charging for online could affect this game.
I think Mario & Zelda look sufficiently different to previous entries and both look fantastic. Not sure what to think of Xeno 2, although it's not really going to be a big factor in terms of sales. What's up with getting Setsuna ported to Switch? It just seems like an odd choice lol...
What are the reactions to Splatoon 2? Apart from the flipping mechanic, it's hard to tell the difference from the first game in all honesty. I know they've changed all the super weapons and what not, have different maps, etc. but it looks more like a Splatoon 1.5 on first glance, mostly due to the (nearly) identical graphics style. Have they mentioned what the local multiplayer options are for the game? A good 1v1 mode or something? I do think the portability is nice, but like other folks mentioned, I feel like charging for online could affect this game.
I think Mario & Zelda look sufficiently different to previous entries and both look fantastic. Not sure what to think of Xeno 2, although it's not really going to be a big factor in terms of sales. What's up with getting Setsuna ported to Switch? It just seems like an odd choice lol...
Splatoon's "sameyness" seems mainly due to the little improvement in graphics. Mario, Zelda, and even Mario Kart (already the best looking wii u game outside of WWHD, and just a port) managed to noticeably improve.
Impressions would be different if the graphics were better, or at least 900p or 1080.
Impressions would be different if the graphics were better, or at least 900p or 1080.
Square Enix's new business model for small games seems to be just to release them anywhere viable.
Definitely did not expect square to have 3-5 games and Capcom and Level 5 basically nothing.
This week has been full of surprises
Same. Not really sure what to make of the Switch's third party support at the moment.
2017 is going to be an interesting year.
Im not disagreeing with any of this. Splatoon was a once in a decade success story - Nintendo could not repeat this without having reinvent all of their projects, which also could have resulted in lost sales if they didnt provide the usual and expected Nintendo IPs.
Thats why Switch is happening - they arent able to handhold two systems to success if they mayor "gimmick" doesnt already sell the consoles for them.
the game received the number "2" because nintendo knew that alone would sell several times more than "Splatton remastered" or "Splattoon 1.1" or any other thing.
Splatoon has a dedicated fanbase that can see if this is trully a sequel or not.