HazySaiyan
Banned
It's a Nintendo console so absolutely, at least initially.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Do you guys think there will be a Switch shortage?
- Thread starter Formosa
- Start date
Last_colossi
Member
It's a Nintendo console, so of course.
Although stock shortages and long term sales success are two different things.
Although stock shortages and long term sales success are two different things.
MrMephistoX
Member
I could see Wii owners who never got a Wii U thinking it was an accessory or upgrade like the PS Pro biting long term but likely not until after a price drop.
It wasn't. You could still buy the Neon one until Saturday afternoon.
Last_colossi
Member
I 100% agree that the Switch has the ability and benefit of being a niche product that it could easily reach Wii numbers of sales throughout its life time, but that all relies on price & software and so far Nintendo have stumbled on the former.
I don't think Nintendo will ship more than there is demand (as always), so yes. If you want one at launch, you are already late probably.
Furthermore, the loyal Nintendo fanbase and people who just love gadgets like these will likely mean it will sell well initially. What will be interesting is how well it will sell after the initial period (and Zelda hype).
I am still torn on how well I think it will do since the appeal of the device is definitely there but some Nintendo decisions just hamper the potential in major ways.
Furthermore, the loyal Nintendo fanbase and people who just love gadgets like these will likely mean it will sell well initially. What will be interesting is how well it will sell after the initial period (and Zelda hype).
I am still torn on how well I think it will do since the appeal of the device is definitely there but some Nintendo decisions just hamper the potential in major ways.
PeterBazooka
Member
Bestbuy.ca sold out pre-orders in 5 mins and Amazon.ca roughly the same. Not sure what their allocation numbers were tho. I think the Switch is going to do a lot better than the WiiU that's for sure -- there will be shortages. A lot of positive buzz outside of hardcore gaming forums and the difference that I'm seeing is a lot of casuals talking about it (at the office, other parents...etc), where as with the WiiU no one was talking about it outside the gaming realm.
I think there will be a shortage at launch, not due to overwhelming demand but due to Nintendo undershipping it.
It cannot compete power-level wise with the other consoles.
It is not a massive improvement graphics-wise over its own predecessor.
It does not and will never have the third party support that the other consoles have.
It does not have a complete library of games built up yet like the other consoles.
Its main launch game is also available on its predecessor.
Its main 'showcase' game does not come bundled and is sold separately at full price.
Paid online is a tough sell considering Nintendo's track record in online and complete lack of the big third party multiplayer hitters.
Extra controllers are expensive.
It is less portable than a 2DS or 3DS.
It is less affordable than a 2DS or 3DS.
It's a premium device you can't just throw in Timmy's backpack.
The Wii crowd has mostly moved on to other platforms ( phone, tablet, perhaps other consoles ) and is not coming back while the core console market has left Nintendo behind at this point.
The Switch may carve out a niche for itself but I highly doubt it will achieve widespread mainstream success. If I'm wrong, I'll happily eat crow, because I'd love this thing to be successful, but I just don't see it happening.
I think you underestimate both the drawbacks of a portable console and the demand for a portable console.
It cannot compete power-level wise with the other consoles.
It is not a massive improvement graphics-wise over its own predecessor.
It does not and will never have the third party support that the other consoles have.
It does not have a complete library of games built up yet like the other consoles.
Its main launch game is also available on its predecessor.
Its main 'showcase' game does not come bundled and is sold separately at full price.
Paid online is a tough sell considering Nintendo's track record in online and complete lack of the big third party multiplayer hitters.
Extra controllers are expensive.
It is less portable than a 2DS or 3DS.
It is less affordable than a 2DS or 3DS.
It's a premium device you can't just throw in Timmy's backpack.
The Wii crowd has mostly moved on to other platforms ( phone, tablet, perhaps other consoles ) and is not coming back while the core console market has left Nintendo behind at this point.
The Switch may carve out a niche for itself but I highly doubt it will achieve widespread mainstream success. If I'm wrong, I'll happily eat crow, because I'd love this thing to be successful, but I just don't see it happening.
Yes. Given Nintendo's track record, they have no fucking clue.
FrozenCell
Member
kraspkibble
Permabanned.
well if i were to preorder one now i sure as hell wouldn't get it on launch day. it will be out of stock for a while. i don't imagine it'll be for long though. i really just can't see it selling much due to the severe lack of games. i bet a lot of people will end up returning them too. for most people the only game at launch they care about is Zelda. what are you gonna play a week later?
Yup. Some shops will sell out but it'll be in stock come end of year.
Fox Mulder
Member
Diehards and scalpers will make it sell out at launch. No one else will give a shit going into the summer, and hopefully Nintendo has stock by the holidays.
But it's Nintendo.
But it's Nintendo.
Bedameister
Member
I hope not. Wanna buy this at launch
Yes. It's a Nintendo console.
Leyasu
Banned
This. Nintendo will drip feed the retailers to inflate/crate the hype.
pinkurocket
Member
In-store it might be more difficult to grab one at launch, but I still see online stores having pre-orders open. Amazon.fr hasn't run out of pre-orders since they went up.
jts
...hate me...
It's really not just Nintendo, but yes. It probably will.
The AirPods for example are on 6 weeks waiting since launch.
Companies don't want to lose a bunch of money by producing excessively new products. Production can then progressively scale up or down according to real world demand later.
The AirPods for example are on 6 weeks waiting since launch.
Companies don't want to lose a bunch of money by producing excessively new products. Production can then progressively scale up or down according to real world demand later.
OverturePT
Member
Japan and USA, probably, but in Europe it's 30 too much for that impulse buy.
Good thing about buying Nintendo consoles in a Sony land like Portugal is that I can just walk into a store day one and buy whatever I want without fear of it being sold out. I always feel like the only guy buying Nintendo games here.
Good thing about buying Nintendo consoles in a Sony land like Portugal is that I can just walk into a store day one and buy whatever I want without fear of it being sold out. I always feel like the only guy buying Nintendo games here.
jabberwocker
Banned
Why would you think it would be cancelled?
I find this frankly repulsive.
SporeCrawler
Member
By June it will have mario kart, arms and possibly splatoon 2 though
DecoReturns
Member
No. Not at all.
I don't see the Switch selling that well until it builds a quality library. Kinda like a 3DS situation where after a price cut and many games came it started to sell decently.
I think Holiday 2017 will be interesting if Mario is truly relased. and the other rumors games are true.
I don't see the Switch selling that well until it builds a quality library. Kinda like a 3DS situation where after a price cut and many games came it started to sell decently.
I think Holiday 2017 will be interesting if Mario is truly relased. and the other rumors games are true.
SporeCrawler
Member
I was thinking about getting a japanese unit because it will be 240€... but importing hardware is such a hassle if you are not in the country at the time you buy so i just said nah and preordered in europe.
At launch 3DS was sold out and nowhere to be found (with a launch line up that was really abysmal)
DecoReturns
Member
Hmm. I guess my area didn't suffer from 3DS shortages. It was widely available after launching. As well as the Wii U.
The only time I had trouble getting a console was the Wii.
what a question. it allready is my friend
JustSomeone
Member
Only if nintendo undermanufacture it
Iced Arcade
Member
Obviously, it's Nintendo.
RecRoulette
Member
Nah, it's going to be another WiiU situation, where scalpers (and people worried about a shortage) buy up a ton of preorders only for there to be a decent supply at launch. The price point plus the time of year should lead to a pretty peaceful launch.
Exactly, its sold out everywhere.
superNESjoe
Member
You guys...this *exact* situation happened with Wii U. Pre orders sold out quick, the first few days you couldn't find one anywhere because of scalpers and aggressive hardcore fans, and then all of a sudden it was everywhere and the hundreds listed on eBay over MSRP didn't move.
Sold out preorders is no indication of if it'll be scarce.
Sold out preorders is no indication of if it'll be scarce.
formasymphonic
Member
This depends pretty heavily on the product itself - how easy it is to obtain on their part and how easy it is to redistribute it - and on how hard is it for others to obtain it, while being limited but how many end users desire the product.
If the Switch has limited release in particular regions (while the console itself is region-free) then that might make it pretty attractive to scalpers. The catch being how many end users actually want it.
I have a theory that the high prices Nintendo have set might actually be a clever ploy to lower initial mass demand during the period when they need to ramp up stock. this will deter end user desirability and thus limit scalping revenue potential.
During this period they don't really need to worry too much about sales because the hardcore nintendo fans and people who need it day one will do so anyway. Less scalping could also mean less scalper-returns (and negative unit sales). iirc Wii U was hit pretty bad by these (but i don't have any hard numbers to back that).
As the year progresses and they can ramp up to numbers where scarcity isn't an issue (i.e. ready for holiday period), they can either lower pricing (unlikely), or keep the same pricing but include bundles of games that will be released by then. The increased availability further lowers scalping potential any anyone who wants to get a Switch can get one.
Thats one theory anyway - my other one is that Nintendo are in too much of a bible and are only considering their competition to be iPads and thus don't see Switch prices as an issue.
Dagobert Duck
Member
CollectedDust
Member
There will be a shortage at launch, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will sell well (see NES Classic).
formasymphonic
Member
To answer the OP though:
Initially yes i'm expecting a launch shortage, but then I think we'll see it play out like the Wii U unless value proposition changes.
Right now it doesn't offer enough to be a main console, while being too pricey to be your secondary console.
Initially yes i'm expecting a launch shortage, but then I think we'll see it play out like the Wii U unless value proposition changes.
Right now it doesn't offer enough to be a main console, while being too pricey to be your secondary console.
It's still available for preorder on amazon.it
Nitty_Grimes
Made a crappy phPBB forum once ... once.
Well, you can still pre order both models (coloured controllers) on the Nintendo UK store so it hasn't sold out yet.
Similar threads
- Poll