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Banned
We'll get the worst of both worlds: Nintendo severely underships the console but they don't even sell enough units to get launch consoles off store selves by the holidays.
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Do you guys think there will be a Switch shortage?
- Thread starter Formosa
- Start date
Nitty_Grimes
Made a crappy phPBB forum once ... once.
But it hasn't sold out everywhere though.
Dee Dah Dave
Member
In the first couple of months maybe. Then possibly at the holidays if they somehow manage to get a great game lineup.
But I would imagine most core gamers this holiday will also be looking at Scorpio's and PS4 Pro's...
But I would imagine most core gamers this holiday will also be looking at Scorpio's and PS4 Pro's...
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
Where can I get it?
Shadow Broker
Banned
Fuck her. I hope she got stuck with each of those consoles and had to sell them for a loss.
First month, definitely, Nintendo said there would be only 2M Switch, for a worldwide launch!
Or she returned them and didn't lose anything.
PSFan
Member
They ended up returning them. I remember watching her auctions. Didn't even get one bid for one of those Wii Us, hahahA
Think about how much time and hassle it is to bring all those Wii Us back to a store. Not to mention how pathetic it looks wheeling them all in to return lol.
friskykillface
Banned
That picture of the Wii u in her mini van still makes me :/
Since Wii u was released in the holidays the store probably had extended return on everything so when it wasn't selling she easily returned it
Such a shame too, I wish items were all sales final if you buy more than 3 cause that's just ridiculous
I'll say this, if switch only resells for $350 you'll start to see mass returns since it'll be 30 days to return stuff with a receipt now
Since Wii u was released in the holidays the store probably had extended return on everything so when it wasn't selling she easily returned it
Such a shame too, I wish items were all sales final if you buy more than 3 cause that's just ridiculous
I'll say this, if switch only resells for $350 you'll start to see mass returns since it'll be 30 days to return stuff with a receipt now
Pretty dumb when twilight princess sold gangbusters for a Zelda title. They should have gone for 3 or 4 million Switch units for world wide.
Stallion Dan
Member
Yes, when stores drop it like they did Wii U.
Yep please show us where we can buy more of these.
PSFan
Member
That picture of the Wii u in her mini van still makes me :/
Since Wii u was released in the holidays the store probably had extended return on everything so when it wasn't selling she easily returned it
Such a shame too, I wish items were all sales final if you buy more than 3 cause that's just ridiculous
I'll say this, if switch only resells for $350 you'll start to see mass returns since it'll be 30 days to return stuff with a receipt now
Items don't even have to be all sales final. All retailers have to do is start charging a restocking fee on returned consoles and scalpers will never screw up a console launch again.
Also, fuck retailers for not putting a limit on these kinds of items. I mean, they could at least make it one per customer during launch window.
France is one of the best market for Nintendo in Europe and it's not sold out anywhere, you can find every Switch version everywhere, it's worrying.
But it's n°1 in gaming part of the website ( with Zelda ) first non-Nintendo related stuff is at 11:
https://www.amazon.fr/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=sr_bs_1_videogames_1
here's the link if people want to get one:
https://www.amazon.fr/Console-Nintendo-Switch-paire-Joy-Con/dp/B01M6ZGICT/ref=zg_bs_videogames_1?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=CMMSMQ4JTRYD117FSKJR
But it's n°1 in gaming part of the website ( with Zelda ) first non-Nintendo related stuff is at 11:
https://www.amazon.fr/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=sr_bs_1_videogames_1
here's the link if people want to get one:
https://www.amazon.fr/Console-Nintendo-Switch-paire-Joy-Con/dp/B01M6ZGICT/ref=zg_bs_videogames_1?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=CMMSMQ4JTRYD117FSKJR
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
Not in stock now, but nowinstock history shows that walmart has been putting them up every hour or so since last night. So, if you're dying for one I'd keep checking walmart and/or nowinstock.
EDIT: They just went up again on walmart. Granted, it will probably be gone in a heartbeat.
EDIT 2: Yep, they were gone in an instant. But, I saw it instock for a quick second!
CanUKlehead
Member
We know the official number is 2 million units for launch month.
I'm finding it hard to reconcile the claims that no one is going to buy the thing with the counter claim that Nintendo haven't manufactured enough of them. (I know it isn't all the same people, but I'm sure if I dug around I'd find a few.)
Could the people saying the console will be a complete failure please explain what sales figures they'd expect to see in launch month if there were an unlimited supply of Switches available?
I'm finding it hard to reconcile the claims that no one is going to buy the thing with the counter claim that Nintendo haven't manufactured enough of them. (I know it isn't all the same people, but I'm sure if I dug around I'd find a few.)
Could the people saying the console will be a complete failure please explain what sales figures they'd expect to see in launch month if there were an unlimited supply of Switches available?
Lionel Richie
Member
And that's fucking it I'm not clicking in another Switch thread for a while.
StereoVsn
Member
It will sell out in Japan and US at least during first 2-3 months due to Nintendo undershipping the console as usual. 2 mil WW has been mentioned for March and they will probably ramp up slowly. Then you will have shortages during Holidays because Mario is coming out and possibly Pokémon.
Now, next year after the Holidays this will sit on the shelves unless Nintendo drops the price.
Now, next year after the Holidays this will sit on the shelves unless Nintendo drops the price.
LiveFromKyoto
Member
Preorders are sold out after 2 days but they won't sell their initial 2 million WW after 9 months?
Seems legit.
TimHortons said:
I hope she held onto them. There's going to be a lot of thirsty Zelda fans in March who'll be paying premiums for them. They're discontinued and currently going for $300 on amazon.
Initially, probably.
It's a Nintendo product, they'll under-ship as they usually do. I'm not sure the shortage will last that long. I think it's too early to say.
I don't see it being another Wii in terms of being sold out for months on end, the price is too high, it's lacking in games somewhat and the gimmick isn't there for it to catch on among the casual crowd like the Wii did. If anything I think it's more likely to follow the 3DS' sales pattern. 3DS didn't sell well at the start, they dropped the price fairly quickly, but it had good legs.
It's a Nintendo product, they'll under-ship as they usually do. I'm not sure the shortage will last that long. I think it's too early to say.
I don't see it being another Wii in terms of being sold out for months on end, the price is too high, it's lacking in games somewhat and the gimmick isn't there for it to catch on among the casual crowd like the Wii did. If anything I think it's more likely to follow the 3DS' sales pattern. 3DS didn't sell well at the start, they dropped the price fairly quickly, but it had good legs.
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
Initially? Will sell out because Nintendo's artificially understocking it and because the Nintendo faithful will pick it up.
After the hardcore Nintendo fans (at least those that aren't burned and upgrade) already picked up their purchase?
Same as Wii U. You might see an uptick through Yokai Watch, MonHun and Pokemon if the respective player bases can get past the very high price of entry, paying for playing online, having a heavy Wii U gamepad sized handheld (that's even heavier than the Gamepad) with weak battery/long charging times and not having a $70/80 2Ds like entry model. Pokemon home console games themselves have always been miles behind the mainline handheld games when it comes to sales. That or massive price cuts and possibly ambassador style free games for early adopters, but I don't believe that's what the current Nintendo leadership will pursue, particularly not the current president.
After the hardcore Nintendo fans (at least those that aren't burned and upgrade) already picked up their purchase?
Same as Wii U. You might see an uptick through Yokai Watch, MonHun and Pokemon if the respective player bases can get past the very high price of entry, paying for playing online, having a heavy Wii U gamepad sized handheld (that's even heavier than the Gamepad) with weak battery/long charging times and not having a $70/80 2Ds like entry model. Pokemon home console games themselves have always been miles behind the mainline handheld games when it comes to sales. That or massive price cuts and possibly ambassador style free games for early adopters, but I don't believe that's what the current Nintendo leadership will pursue, particularly not the current president.
It might be a moderate success but there's no chance of reaching Wii numbers, that market's gone and it's not coming back
We don't know how their algorithm works, there's no way to infer anything meaningful from this.
Mainland Europe pricing is crazy.
I don't know what Nintendo is thinking going over the 300 euro mark. No reason it should be over that even with a 20% sales tax.
It deserves to bomb hard in that region based on that alone.
Flintty
Member
I have the Neon pack ordered but was thinking of cancelling. Now I'm not sure. I don't need it at launch and I could just get Zelda on the U but I kinda want to keep the order just in case I can't get one when's I want it.
What irks me most is lack of launch game. If I get it day one, what the hell am I gonna use it for, unless I get Zelda? Weakest launch line up I can remember for any console.
What irks me most is lack of launch game. If I get it day one, what the hell am I gonna use it for, unless I get Zelda? Weakest launch line up I can remember for any console.
always crazy bacon
Banned
There's going to be a shortage at least at some points a couple of months after launch because at the end of this month its Chinese new year and all the factories and supply chain will be closed for around 10 days.
So unless Nintendo manufacture enough buffer stock or pay for air freight from China (expensive) that delay will show up in the supply.
So unless Nintendo manufacture enough buffer stock or pay for air freight from China (expensive) that delay will show up in the supply.
The first ~5M or thereabouts will sell more or less as they come in stock. Since Nintendo is supposedly shipping 2M for launch and has continually shown a lack of concern for refilling the channel shortly after all product launches (or even holiday season surges) we'll likely see that first 5M take them into the Holiday 2017 season when Mario Odyssey and Christmas shopping should help the next ~2-3M stay relatively high demand as well.
Early 2018 is when we will begin to see real demand for the Switch. If there aren't frequent shortages through 2017 Nintendo will know they've really got a problem on their hands with that price point.
My guess is that we'll see something more like this though:
Launch: Sold out, Zelda as the carry title, slow refill as they hold back stock for holiday 2017 and to push their high demand/sold out narrative. MK8D and Splatoon 2 will help to keep the ~2-3M we'll see for the six months after launch moving off shelves.
They'll push another launch size or slightly larger shipment out for holiday 2017 with Mario, no bundle, and sell all of them very quickly.
Then we'll get into 2018 and sales will really depend on how good the games Nintendo has put out are, how the 3DS 3rd party support has migrated, and how strong their 2018 lineup looks.
I'm assuming they'll hold Pokemon Stars back for the 2018 Holidays. Do they port Smash for a mid-year title? What else do they have unrevealed as of now to boost those historically dry months for Nintendo hardware? If sales go limp in that window I'd expect Nintendo to move on a hardware price drop to $250.00 before the holiday season if needed, knowing they can include BotW as a pack-in for the holidays without costing them the big sales software (Mario and Pokemon) but still really upping the value on the package.
Nintendo was pretty aggressive in trying to up the value on the 3DS and Wii U after their poor initial sales (following pretty much sold out launches, FYI). If the Switch's price point really holds it back (which I think it will following the inherently supply constrained year one) they'll have options on how to bring the price down aggressively. If they do so they should be able to maintain the Nintendo tradition of a supply constrained holiday season for several years after the system launches, along with doing the same for most of year one. supply constrained through the spring, summer, and early fall though will really depend on how much the system actually catches on and for Nintendo is the difference between the Switch selling 35-45M units versus 50-60M. Supply constrained in the spring/summer/early fall of 2018 and the later is much more likely with the ceiling moving up along with it. Readily available through early and mid 2018? The system is going to need some aggressive price adjustment or fall short of 3DS lifetime units which for Nintendo is more or less the standard of success at this point.
Early 2018 is when we will begin to see real demand for the Switch. If there aren't frequent shortages through 2017 Nintendo will know they've really got a problem on their hands with that price point.
My guess is that we'll see something more like this though:
Launch: Sold out, Zelda as the carry title, slow refill as they hold back stock for holiday 2017 and to push their high demand/sold out narrative. MK8D and Splatoon 2 will help to keep the ~2-3M we'll see for the six months after launch moving off shelves.
They'll push another launch size or slightly larger shipment out for holiday 2017 with Mario, no bundle, and sell all of them very quickly.
Then we'll get into 2018 and sales will really depend on how good the games Nintendo has put out are, how the 3DS 3rd party support has migrated, and how strong their 2018 lineup looks.
I'm assuming they'll hold Pokemon Stars back for the 2018 Holidays. Do they port Smash for a mid-year title? What else do they have unrevealed as of now to boost those historically dry months for Nintendo hardware? If sales go limp in that window I'd expect Nintendo to move on a hardware price drop to $250.00 before the holiday season if needed, knowing they can include BotW as a pack-in for the holidays without costing them the big sales software (Mario and Pokemon) but still really upping the value on the package.
Nintendo was pretty aggressive in trying to up the value on the 3DS and Wii U after their poor initial sales (following pretty much sold out launches, FYI). If the Switch's price point really holds it back (which I think it will following the inherently supply constrained year one) they'll have options on how to bring the price down aggressively. If they do so they should be able to maintain the Nintendo tradition of a supply constrained holiday season for several years after the system launches, along with doing the same for most of year one. supply constrained through the spring, summer, and early fall though will really depend on how much the system actually catches on and for Nintendo is the difference between the Switch selling 35-45M units versus 50-60M. Supply constrained in the spring/summer/early fall of 2018 and the later is much more likely with the ceiling moving up along with it. Readily available through early and mid 2018? The system is going to need some aggressive price adjustment or fall short of 3DS lifetime units which for Nintendo is more or less the standard of success at this point.
My brother tried pre-ordering it today and no unit appears to be available anywhere.
It's a video game console. I'd be surprised if it wasn't supply-constrained at launch. Even the Wii U had a strong launch, so there should be shortages regardless of how well (or not) the Switch ends up doing in the long run.
It's a video game console. I'd be surprised if it wasn't supply-constrained at launch. Even the Wii U had a strong launch, so there should be shortages regardless of how well (or not) the Switch ends up doing in the long run.
outunderthestars
Banned
It looks like it will be sold out at launch, but will probably be fairly easy to find within a couple of months.
I do think there will Joycon and pro controller shortages for some time though.
I do think there will Joycon and pro controller shortages for some time though.
Tawney Bomb
Member
If it's hard to find it will be an artificial scarcity, or else this would be as easy to find as a Wii U at launch and may still end up being that way.
Glass Shark
Banned
Absolutely. It's part of the reason I'm not even attempting to get one until later in the year. Not worth the headache.
AfterTheFall
Member
Don't know about here in the UK. Will be short in supply at launch but after that who knows? It's quite expensive here and Zelda costs £60.
They are expecting to ship 2m through the end of March. Shortages will depend on how the stock is shipped (like if they send way less to places where it's going to be really expensive like Canada and reroute those to the US). It might be hard but they'll have to be shipping more right at the start of April
WhiteWaterM00se
Member
I just talked to a Gamestop rep. Take with a grain of salt, but Switch preorders closed last night at midnight. Regardless of how many they sold. They did not sell their whole presale allotment. The rep believes Nintendo may open up preorders at a later date again.
Doesn't inspire much confidence if Nintendo can't sell all the pre allocated amounts. It is possible you could be looking at a Wii U situation, where you will be able to get them at or soon after launch with no problem.
Doesn't inspire much confidence if Nintendo can't sell all the pre allocated amounts. It is possible you could be looking at a Wii U situation, where you will be able to get them at or soon after launch with no problem.
Novel Mike
Member
The system actually seems to have a pretty good supply for launch, comparable with the PS4 and XB1. When I worked at Gamestop stores were getting anywhere from 20-60 units to reserve and that seems to be a similar case here. Both companies actually upped production for launch and I remember having quite a few extra to sell on launch night of both systems and I'm hoping Nintendo ends up doing the same but it remains to be seen. Wii U was 20-30 if I remember correctly (sorry if I'm a bit off on any of those numbers its been several years XD) so this seems at least better then that at least.
I think they are aware that a scarcity issue for this system will not work in their favor like it did for the Wii, they need to meet demand as quickly as possible.
I think they are aware that a scarcity issue for this system will not work in their favor like it did for the Wii, they need to meet demand as quickly as possible.
I don't think this is correct, speaking to a friend his store had their reserves closed when they weren't selling fast enough and they were giving them to stores that had already sold through and reopened reserves only briefly (which I think we saw yesterday) He also mentioned that people have continued to call and come in trying to reserve it after the fact as well so take that as you will.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
Probably not. Preorders stayed up a decent amount of Tim and that probably covered most of the diehard day one early adopters. Big box stores will probably have some extra stock day one as well.
It will probably be a little scarce a few weeks after launch, but demand probably won't be high either--especially being spring rather than the holiday shopping season. If someone didn't care to preorder for Zelda, there's not much out in March or April to change their minds. Really just the Mario Kart port end of April. Splatoon 2, whatever month that hits will be the next thing to drive up demand and stock,should be plentiful by then.
There's also a ton of big releases on other platforms the first half of the year that will keep most core gamers busy and not thinking of buying a Switch for a couple of games vs waiting.
It will probably be a little scarce a few weeks after launch, but demand probably won't be high either--especially being spring rather than the holiday shopping season. If someone didn't care to preorder for Zelda, there's not much out in March or April to change their minds. Really just the Mario Kart port end of April. Splatoon 2, whatever month that hits will be the next thing to drive up demand and stock,should be plentiful by then.
There's also a ton of big releases on other platforms the first half of the year that will keep most core gamers busy and not thinking of buying a Switch for a couple of games vs waiting.
Nitty_Grimes
Made a crappy phPBB forum once ... once.
Nintendo online.
Depends where in the world you are, I apologise if your part of the world is out of stock
Schopenhauerian
Member
I'd certainly agree that the type of tentative inferences in my other post cannot be definitive (hence I say ”presumably" in the post above, for example), but I'm sure we could debate whether or not those inferences are more or less meaningful/substantive than the typical suppositions/speculative assertions that tend to occur at present in most of the other posts on this subject.
Never a bad idea to bring focus to the best available info, which would include (as you pointed out) any available info on Amazon's algorithm, or (as I just now learned from Hero_of_the_Day's post, above) the noteworthy fact that the duration of Switch's availability at various sites can be derived from the 'nowinstock.net' history:
No, not at all. Sony sold 1 million in NA on launch day in Nov 2013. It hit 2 million after one month, in Dec. PS4 didn't launch in other regions until later, EU about a month later and JPN in Feb 2014.
Nintendo isn't shorting by launching with 2 million units. The only arguable point is how much/often they ship stock to stores after that.
For comparison, PS3 launched with 400,000 units. Wii launched with something like a million, which was unprecedented at that time.
Point being no one ships 20 million on launch day. They make an educated, researched guess at how many to launch with. Then they gauge interest and ramp up production as needed. In example, IIRC, Wii started production at 1 million a month then ramped up to 2 million a month when it became obvious the thing was selling like crazy.
Chill Penguin
Member
Only 2 million available for launch worldwide so it's guaranteed to sell out, if it hasn't already. How it's doing during the summer will be the real barometer.
Transistor
Banned
Only because Nintendo will vastly under produce them, like always