I don't know if I ever committed to a hard prediction before now, but I do believe I've made some posts before about how Nintendo is gearing up for a success, and I think it's pretty clear now all the steps they've taken and plans they've made in the past ~2-3 years are coming to fruition with the Switch. Well, technically they came to fruition early/mid last year, and that's continuing with the Switch.
Almost every single thing about the Switch's situation for the first year (a naturally crucial time for a console) is better than both of its predecessors (3DS and Wii U). Better hardware, better software, better price, better marketing, better gimmick/usp, better launch. And while it may not have been obvious that some of these things were better, like the launch, time has shown that they clearly are. So with the Wii U, basically everything about it was bad, and it failed. With the 3DS, some things about it were bad, some were good, and some quick adjustments made it successful. So when the Switch launches fixing its predecessor's problems and still having room to grow and improve over time, then it's not hard to see how it can max or exceed the 3DS.
The switch just has so much going for it early on that it feels like a decent snowball is possible for it. The marketing got people interested early, and it launched with a legendary multi-10/10 game that will give people that "gotta have it" kinda feeling. The hardware's got a good feel to it and the OS is snappy so when people get their hands on one it impresses them. It sells itself when people take it out of the house and share multiplayer on the go (something that has never really happened before. Not in this way.). And of course, early sales will give developers more confidence, leading to more games. More games mean more sales, etc. And it snowballs from there.
Then of course there's the fact that it's serving a unique audience that its competition isn't. The 3DS audience is substantial, and the Vita audience is going to need a home soon. Vita devs as well.
Then there's the potential for price drops, bundles, and revisions just like consoles always have. It's pretty obvious that a $200-$250 Switch with 3 years of built up library is an attractive proposition. And that library is likely to be quite strong when we see that unified software continue to ramp up. I also think it's important to make note of the particular type of software that Nintendo is focusing on early in the Switch's life. It seems like they're really listening to what people have been saying they've wanted for a long time. Zelda is the type of Zelda people have been asking for for a long time. Same with Mario Odyssey. It's not 3D World 2, it's the 64/Sunshine style people have been asking for. They gave MK8D the battle mode everyone wanted. They fast tracked a
proper sequel for Splatoon, showing confidence in their new IP. They're making a brand new, character focused IP (Arms) and are giving it a lot of focus. Xenoblade 2 is coming year 1 (or asap if it doesn't make it). I'd even put Fire Emblem Warriors on the list. After Hyrule Warriors lots of people were asking for it. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we really do see a new Metroid soon given all of this focus on what fans want.
And then, something that I think is very important (potentially the most important thing when all is said and done), is everything Nintendo is doing
outside of the Switch that will likely have very positive effects on it. In fact, I think we can say these things already have had a strong positive effect on the Switch.
For the past 2 years or so, Nintendo has done a significant amount of work to reorganize themselves as a company and to reinvigorate consumer interest and increase their relevance. Pretty much every decision they've made has been smart, and every bit of marketing they've been a part of has been successful, and every product they've made has captured audience interest.
- Restructuring the company to bring their software teams together, and give the younger devs more freedom and focus
- Amiibos
- The mobile initiative
- Changing their in-store branding (aka classic red comeback)
- Making Zelda the E3 spotlight
- Mario at the Olympics
- Making a freaking theme park
- Getting things set up to make other media like movies (we haven't seen the results of this yet, but it's important that they're doing it. being more of a multimedia company will likely help them a lot)
- More licensing of characters/IP
- Better relationship with indies
- NES Classic (sucks about the supply, but the item was hot)
- And, of course, being a part of the Pokemon GO phenomenon
I think these types of things are the crucial difference between 2011 Nintendo and 2017 Nintendo. In the past, people have complained about Nintendo, and Nintendo has said things like "Please understand", and they'd say they'd fix things. But then they'd never take the steps necessary to do so. But that's not what happened this time. Back when they first started talking about NX, they said the same things. That they'll fix the problems. The difference is, this time they laid out a clear plan of how they were going to fix it, how they were going to change the company to fix things. And we began seeing different bits of news pretty consistently about various steps they were taking, and the unique type of hardware the NX would be. These things that they've already done, are still doing, and have yet to complete are going to make Nintendo a more successful and relevant company than they've been in quite a while, which can only have positive impacts on the Switch.
So, after that stream of thoughts, do I expect a Wii-like success? No. Not really. I won't write off the possibility, but I don't see any reason to expect that of any console. But given everything, I'll put my bet on 70-80million.