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[Acerac]

I know its easy with the benefit of hindsight to say it was going to be successful.

But I'm honestly shocked at how people thought it was going to fail. That youtube video was watched by an insane number of people, got loads of likes. I wasn't on neogaf at the time but I was on the totally unbiased NX reddit and people there were pumped (but they also commented on how the WiiU hadn't grabbed them).

I'm not.

We're on NeoGAF in 2017.

 

[Speevy]

It's still going to fail by the standards of its competitors, which is generally how products are judged.

 

[bionic77]

So most people now think the switch is a hit

Why is that? What changed after that presentation that made everybody think it would be a disaster?

I mean, the console still what the presentation told us: its a slighlty more powerful wiiu that is totally portable and has zelda... And one motion controlled party game

What made the switch a hit then?


(I think it was just zelda and how people forget how Nintendo can make incredible single player games when they want)

What changed is that people got it in their hands and love the idea the console was based on (a hybrid).

 

[Principate]

It's still going to fail by the standards of its competitors, which is generally how products are judged.

Honestly I feel there's a very good chance it'll beat the XB1 (I mean the 3DS looks like it'll handily beat it lifetime), so which competor are you referring to.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

It's still going to fail by the standards of its competitors, which is generally how products are judged.

Two things:

1. Wii handily outsold both 360 and PS3. Would you consider both of those consoles to be failures?
2. Switch is probably going to outsell XB1, globally.

 

[Mass Appeal]

It's still going to fail by the standards of its competitors, which is generally how products are judged.

I will bet the Switch will have more lifetime sales then the xb1 when it's all said and done.

 

[Oersted]

It's still going to fail by the standards of its competitors, which is generally how products are judged.

Switch is already outselling PS4 in Japan, so I guess you don't mean all standards.

 

[E-phonk]

It's still going to fail by the standards of its competitors, which is generally how products are judged.

It will most likely outsell Xbox One in every market. It already did in Japan on launch day, and it shouldn't be too hard for Nintendo to beat its EU sales by the end of 2018.
Switch will also outsell PS4 in Japan by next year.

So which standards?

snip

Great post and I fully agree. While many might not notice it, nintendo has changed tremendously in the last few years. They seemed to have hit all the right notes too. The new Nintendo will be Iwata's last legacy.

 

[Silvawuff]

I think once it fixes its hardware issues, has a stronger library, and lowers its price point, I'm sure it will enjoy slow-burning success. It definitely won't have the must-have casual audience explosion the Wii had; that ship has sailed on to the mobile horizon.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I mean the Xbox One had trouble outselling the WiiU in most EU markets except UK. WiiU was a certified flop and Nintendo didn't bother to drop the price. Also the 3DS has been performing solid here as well.

No need to talk about Japan at all.

So unless something mayor happen the likelihood of Switch outselling the One is quite high. Xbox One has much stronger direct competition with the PS4/Pro meanwhile the Switch USP as a hybrid console in addition to the first part exclusives means Nintendo will be just fine if they do their homework.

Continuing dropping those first party hits while offering a desirable hardware - unless they screw up software wise they should be fine. Titles like Animal Crossing will be massive if they can somehow get mobile AC users into upgrading to a Switch for the console version. Lot of potential here.

 

[ASaiyan]

I think that ballsy target from Nintendo France of WW sales eclipsing total Wii U sales this year is actually doable (though they may end up missing the mark by 1 or 2 million).

For long-term success though, what they need to do, as others have already said, is kill the 3DS. The whole point of the Switch (from both a marketing and a development standpoint) is home and handheld merging into one console. The execs in Japan are probably too scared to throw away their one proven success right now, which is why 3DS has support confirmed to year-end, but if it continues to cannibalize market share and split the dev base the Switch will not become the gold mine it very well could be.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

I think that ballsy target from Nintendo France of WW sales eclipsing total Wii U sales this year is actually doable (though they may end up missing the mark by 1 or 2 million).

For long-term success though, what they need to do, as others have already said, is kill the 3DS. The whole point of the Switch (from both a marketing and a development standpoint) is home and handheld merging into one console. The execs in Japan are probably too scared to throw away their one proven success right now, which is why 3DS has support confirmed to year-end, but if it continues to cannibalize market share and split the dev base the Switch will not become the gold mine it very well could be.

I don't think any Nintendo dev team is working on any 3DS games.

 

[Liliana Eileen]

I think once it fixes its hardware issues, has a stronger library, and lowers its price point, I'm sure it will enjoy slow-burning success. It definitely won't have the must-have casual audience explosion the Wii had; that ship has sailed on to the mobile horizon.

Sums up my opinion nicely.

 

[sanstesy]

I'm not.

We're on NeoGAF in 2017.

GAF in 2k17 LUL

 

[OrbitalBeard]

I think once it fixes its hardware issues, has a stronger library, and lowers its price point, I'm sure it will enjoy slow-burning success. It definitely won't have the must-have casual audience explosion the Wii had; that ship has sailed on to the mobile horizon.

Maybe not, but I love how this reasoning was used a year ago by many on GAF to predict that Switch (NX at the time) would be a flop.

 

[phant0m]

Wow, there's a lot of crow on the first few pages of this thread

 

[cacildo]

Nothing changed. It was always an interesting product with a GOAT launch title in Zelda. Outside of Neogaf and the most hardcore gaming outlets the reception still remained positive and even here there was still a lot of hype. The mass market didn't even see the presentation. We are talking about a presentation aimed at Japanese stock investors that aired at near midnight in the West and was fully in Japanese requiring subtitles. This is a forum full of fanboys that freak the fuck out over the smallest thing possible and concern trolling poorly disguised as "industry discussion". Even in the best light possible, Neogaf is a community of hardcore gamers that will look at things differently than the mass market and general sentiment here isn't predictive of anything.

(and freak out they did
My god it was almost unbearable here that day. Everything was "WHAT??? DOOMED!")

What changed is that people got it in their hands and love the idea the console was based on (a hybrid).

I imagined that people would enjoy the idea of playing a home console with a screen for yourself. I use my Wiiu almost exclusively for off-tv play while my wife keeps the tv for her. And its great

(but i really wish the switch had a Twitter app that could pop in new tweets while you play - know im the only one in the world who wants that)

 

[slit]

It's still going to fail by the standards of its competitors, which is generally how products are judged.

No it won't, competitors or otherwise. XB1 is the one that will ultimately stack up as the failure in that regard.

 

[Dangansona]

Wow, there's a lot of crow on the first few pages of this thread

I wish I was there to be on the right side of history, but I was tired of trying to downplay the doom and gloom by the time this thread rolled around lol. The funny part is the assumption that the price was too high.

Edit: Nvm, I did post. People argued back.

Jesus Christ is GAF that pessimistic? I'm going to say yes it will do well. It seems like they have their marketing back again because the Switch logo and animation is pretty neat, the concept itself is easy to explain, and even if the launch lineup could be better games are going to start rolling out for this thing compared to previous Nintendo consoles.

And $300 is too much? Really?

People were really pissed after that press conference.

 

[Xe4]

I said initially I think it'll outsell the U, but undersell the WIi. I stand by that, but that's a big range, so with more information, I'm going to say it'll sell closer to what the Wii sold than the Wii U, but on the "low end" of that (it won't come super close to outselling the Wii).

 

[Exquisik]

Switch will also outsell PS4 in Japan by next year.

The Switch will outsell the PS4 in Japan eventually, but you're high if you think it will outsell PS4 by next year. The PS4 currently has a lead over the Switch by 4 millions units, in order for the Switch to outsell the PS4 by next year, it will need to sell more than the PS4 by 200,000 units every month for the next 20 months. With supply constraint and a possible PS4 price drop during the holidays, it's next to impossible.

 

[Principate]

The Switch will outsell the PS4 in Japan eventually, but you're high if you think it will outsell PS4 by next year. The PS4 currently has a lead over the Switch by 4 millions units, in order for the Switch to outsell the PS4 by next year, it will need to sell more than the PS4 by 200,000 units every month for the next 20 months. With supply constraint and a possible PS4 price drop during the holidays, it's next to impossible.

That's like 50k a week ignoring holidays. Not exactly impossible numbers. 3DS sold well more than that post price drop. I'm not saying it'll do it but your acting like it's not in the realm of possibility. Will probably surpass it not much over if it's sales go well.

Supply constraint? do you honestly think the switch will be supply constrained for almost 2 years. If that were true it'd beat the ps4 this year because of such massive demand.

 

[DrWong]

The Switch will outsell the PS4 in Japan eventually, but you're high if you think it will outsell PS4 by next year. The PS4 currently has a lead over the Switch by 4 millions units, in order for the Switch to outsell the PS4 by next year, it will need to sell more than the PS4 by 200,000 units every month for the next 20 months. With supply constraint and a possible PS4 price drop during the holidays, it's next to impossible.

Given how the thing is doing in Japan Switch will be at 3M at the en of this year and can possibly aim the 4M tier with one or 2 more big games. It all depends on the momentum after Splatoon 2. End of next year? double that.

 

[thestopsign]

The Switch will outsell the PS4 in Japan eventually, but you're high if you think it will outsell PS4 by next year. The PS4 currently has a lead over the Switch by 4 millions units, in order for the Switch to outsell the PS4 by next year, it will need to sell more than the PS4 by 200,000 units every month for the next 20 months. With supply constraint and a possible PS4 price drop during the holidays, it's next to impossible.

It's very possible if you assume it will sell over a million (which it will) in December in Japan. It should sell somewhere close to 4 million this year in Japan and then all it needs is another 3 million or so in 2018, which is super doable.

 

[marmoka]

My prediction post

I'm happy, really happy, of being wrong the day I wrote it.

 

[Jams775]

I'm going to say the console may end up in second place ( of the big 3) at some point and may even get close to hitting first. I think it'll really depend on if they can add more games to their 2018 release schedule than what is going to hit this year. If there are only 2 or 3 big first/third party games next year, I don't know if the Switch will keep the momentum going. Though if they have something big cooking up in development with a scope like Zelda, then that could carry it all year depending on when it releases. Though they'll need to keep it rolling with releases consistently to keep the system sales up. They'd need to make sure they hit all the genres that made the DS's popular too.

It's pretty up in the air right now other than to say it's doing great right. The hardware is really good and strikes a good balance between graphics/open world capability, battery life and other handheld features. Having finally gotten my own, I have to say they can do a lot with it and there's not much in the way of gimmicks or anything holding the system back from making huge great games.

I think the future looks bright for Nintendo.

 

[AdventureRacing]

The Switch will outsell the PS4 in Japan eventually, but you're high if you think it will outsell PS4 by next year. The PS4 currently has a lead over the Switch by 4 millions units, in order for the Switch to outsell the PS4 by next year, it will need to sell more than the PS4 by 200,000 units every month for the next 20 months. With supply constraint and a possible PS4 price drop during the holidays, it's next to impossible.

Actually I think it's more than possible that the switch will overtake the PS4 in Japan next year.

That's one of the reasons I think the switch will blow past the xbone WW. It's still struggling to reach 30 million WW meanwhile the switch will be able to sell 20 million+ in Japan alone.

I hope Nintendo really knuckles down and owns the Japanese market. Whilst everyone else has all but abandoned it this is their chance to take a total stronghols of that market.

 

[Exquisik]

That's like 50k a week ignoring holidays. Not exactly impossible numbers. 3DS sold well more than that post price drop. I'm not saying it'll do it but your acting like it's not in the realm of possibility. Will probably surpass it not much over if it's sales go well.

Supply constraint? do you honestly think the switch will be supply constrained for almost 2 years. If that were true it'd beat the ps4 this year because of such massive demand.

Given how the thing is doing in Japan Switch will be at 3M at the en of this year and can possibly aim the 4M tier with one or 2 more big games. It all depends on the momentum after Splatoon 2. End of next year? double that.

It's very possible if you assume it will sell over a million (which it will) in December in Japan. It should sell somewhere close to 4 million this year in Japan and then all it needs is another 3 million or so in 2018, which is super doable.

So are you just assuming that the PS4 will stop selling? The Switch is selling at 50k a week, but the PS4 is also still selling. It will not be supply constraint for two years, but the interest level will wane over time much like every other consoles released to date. Eventually it will stop selling at 50k a week.

No one knows what's going to happen during the holidays, but the total hardware sales last December combined is not even approximately a million. Even the Wii didn't sell a million during its first holiday, and that was its launch month. And don't forget that Sony can still drop the price of the PS4 for the holidays.

 

[Principate]

So are you just assuming that the PS4 will stop selling? The Switch is selling at 50k a week, but the PS4 is also still selling. It will not be supply constraint for two years, but the interest level will wane over time much like every other consoles released to date. Eventually it will stop selling at 50k a week.

No one knows what's going to happen during the holidays, but the total hardware sales last December combined is not even approximately a million. Even the Wii didn't sell a million during its first holiday, and that was its launch month. And don't forget that Sony can still drop the price of the PS4 for the holidays.

PS4 sells like around a mill to 2 a year. Vita amounts in Japan. The 3DS sold 3+ million a year That's why it's currently at 22 million total sold in Japan alone. If the switch sells anything like the 3DS it'll be at 5-6+ by the end of next near

The switch is supply capped at 50+ a year which means it should be selling higher if it had the stock, we don't currently know how much higher exactly buy won't be supply capped for over 1 and half years and if it was we'd b talking DS level sales in Japan.

 

[TheEndOfItAll]

Ogre Battle: March of the Black Queen SNES. Only 25000 copies released in North America. I've only managed to find two of them: one at a rental store and one at a department store in my hometown. Bought it immediately and still own it.

 

[Nilaul]

Switch mini will come out sooner or later, it will become cheaper. It will have new Pokemon games and sooner or later it will have Nintendo's full output.

It may very well outsell the PS4 in its lifetime.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Ogre Battle: March of the Black Queen SNES. Only 25000 copies released in North America. I've only managed to find two of them: one at a rental store and one at a department store in my hometown. Bought it immediately and still own it.

That's great. Wrong thread though.

 

[family_guy]

Switch mini will come out sooner or later, it will become cheaper. It will have new Pokemon games and sooner or later it will have Nintendo's full output.

It may very well outsell the PS4 in its lifetime.

It won't. Maybe in Japan, but globally it doesn't have a chance. People act like PS4 will stop selling. Even if PS4 sold half as many consoles this point going forward Switch wouldn't catch it. PS4 hit 50-60 million sold in half the time it took 3DS. Switch will probably do 3DS type numbers at best.

 

[AquaWateria]

So are you just assuming that the PS4 will stop selling? The Switch is selling at 50k a week, but the PS4 is also still selling. It will not be supply constraint for two years, but the interest level will wane over time much like every other consoles released to date. Eventually it will stop selling at 50k a week.

No one knows what's going to happen during the holidays, but the total hardware sales last December combined is not even approximately a million. Even the Wii didn't sell a million during its first holiday, and that was its launch month. And don't forget that Sony can still drop the price of the PS4 for the holidays.

The answer is Splatoon lol.

 

[phantasmic_glaive]

Maybe not, but I love how this reasoning was used a year ago by many on GAF to predict that Switch (NX at the time) would be a flop.

You're always gonna have that, especially on gaf.

But having one now, the hardware makes me not wanna use it sometimes. For example: I was playing MK8D and I can't get the damn black tops off my joycons. A gaffer told me to look up a tutorial on how to get them off...... you shouldn't need a fucking YouTube tutorial to deconstruct a controller, man.

The dock scratches the crap outta the screen and my right joycon desyncs sometimes. It's lil stuff, but my god it makes me not wanna play it sometimes.

The games (Zelda and MK) are good tho and it's a very handy system. MK graphics in handheld mode surreal.

Spoiler

nowhere near best of all time tho like earlier claims

 

[K.Jack]

Two things:

1. Wii handily outsold both 360 and PS3. Would you consider both of those consoles to be failures?
2. Switch is probably going to outsell XB1, globally.

Well, the PS3 I see as a failure, purely based on the squandered legacy of its successors.

The bean counters probably agree.

 

[VillageBC]

It will make Nintendo money. It won't compete with the PS4 though and I'll be surprised if it comes close to the 3ds. It strikes me as too expensive to be one of those handhelds you outfit smaller family members with. But if they come out with $199 revisions then it could.

 

[KtSlime]

Beating WiiU, yes.
Beating Wii, no.
Beating PS4/X1, lol.


Will it be a succes for Nintendo? They will claim its a succes but it wont be. Quote me on this in 2,5 years.

We won't really know for a bit longer, but If you compare the first 28 days of sale of the Switch to the PS4's first 28 (46 days /1.6) they are selling at the exact same rate. Sure there are some differences in region availability and which season the launch is at, but so far it seems Switch is keeping at pace with launch aligned PS4.

 

[Dark Cloud]

The NES and SNES had a much, much smaller potential customer base. The industry is exponentially larger now. Comparisons to anything older than the Gamecube are meaningless, and even that's pushing it. And the 3DS isn't considered much of a success by business metrics, because you're expected to equal or exceed the hardware's predecessor, which 3DS hasn't even come close to doing.

Predicting failure at this point is silly given how well the system is selling, but predicting huge record-setting success is no less silly. There's no mainstream media hype on the system like there was on the Wii, there's nothing gimmicky to capture the mainstream imagination like the Wii (no, portability is not that, the mainstream is not impressed by portable gaming after 10 years of smartphones), and the system is currently still selling to Nintendo fans and will continue to do so for some time. The Wii U showed us that around 10 million people will buy anything with Nintendo's name on the hardware, so we can't really judge Switch's long term success until those people have Switches and we see how it's penetrating the mainstream market. We may get a glimpse of that this Christmas, but I suspect we won't have a clear picture in this area until sometime next year at the very earliest.

tl;dr - This is a marathon, not a sprint. Calm down.

Sony's been failing since the PS2 confirmed by you. Get a clue how business works. Nobody will every consistently outsell their predecessor.

 

[D.Lo]

It will be funny to watch each level of wrong in this thread be called out as the milestones pass. It's already probably at 4 million, so is already comfortably beating 'worse than Wii U' predictions.

And I think if they can ramp up production it will easily surpass the Wii U total within months, and easily this year. Basically crow will be coming thick and fast, Wii style.

 

[wildfire]

That's not true at all.

Yes it is.


Technically it would be fine if it sold as well add the 3ds line but no large company should accept slowing down negative growth because that's exactly what matching the 3ds would mean.



To be a success they are happy with instead of ok with the Switch needs to sell better than the Wii U and all revisions of the 3ds including the 2ds combined.


The switch needs to prove consolidating their handhelds and console was superior to supporting two different hardware skus.

 

[Principate]

Yes it is.


Technically it would be fine if it sold as well add the 3ds line but no large company should accept slowing down negative growth because that's exactly what matching the 3ds would mean.



To be a success they are happy with instead of ok with the Switch needs to sell better than the Wii U and all revisions of the 3ds including the 2ds combined.


The switch needs to prove consolidating their handhelds and console was superior to supporting two different hardware skus.

I mean this is false because there was almost certainly people that owned both a wii u and a 3DS thus combining them wouldn't get you their combined userbase total. You can have greater overall userbase while selling less than them both combined.

Also hardware isn't everything the biggest issue with the 3DS wasn't the hardware drop, it's the amount of software it was selling worldwide which wasn't as good as previous gens.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Yes it is.


Technically it would be fine if it sold as well add the 3ds line but no large company should accept slowing down negative growth because that's exactly what matching the 3ds would mean.

To be a success they are happy with instead of ok with the Switch needs to sell better than the Wii U and all revisions of the 3ds including the 2ds combined.

The switch needs to prove consolidating their handhelds and console was superior to supporting two different hardware skus.

That would set the bar for success for the switch somewhere around 90 million. I don't need to hear any internal expectations to know that Nintendo would be happy if they got anywhere near that.

I see a few flaws with you thinking. The first is that nintendo has seen a huge contraction in their business. They went from selling 250 million units of HW to around 90 million pieces of HW. Even if the switch doesn't quite match the 90 million it will hopefully stem the bleeding somewhat and give them a more sustainable market.

I think the more important metric is SW. The wii U and 3DS both did very poorly SW wise. The switch could sell considerably less total HW and still hopefully compete on the SW front.

Then there is the bigger issue of profit. It's early days yet but the switch looks to be a much more profitable piece of HW than the 3DS or wii U which is ultimately what matters.

Long term I think consolidating all their SW teams will put them in a stronger place. Thy were stretched too thin and supporting 2 platforms was becoming unviable.

 

[wildfire]

I mean this is false because there was almost certainly people that owned both a wii u and a 3DS thus combining them wouldn't get you their combined userbase total. You can have greater overall userbase while selling less than them both combined.

Also hardware isn't everything the biggest issue with the 3DS wasn't the hardware drop, it's the amount of software it was selling worldwide which wasn't as good as previous gens.

It's a given that some households would own both platforms. That suddenly doesn't mean a company of Nintendo's size should give up on setting goals that prove they can make a product with generation over generation positive growth again.

There is nothing false about that.

 

[TheFuzz]

I think once it fixes its hardware issues, has a stronger library, and lowers its price point, I'm sure it will enjoy slow-burning success. It definitely won't have the must-have casual audience explosion the Wii had; that ship has sailed on to the mobile horizon.

Lol

 

[Macka]

It's not going to be priced at $299 forever.

Sure, but when do you think a price drop could realistically happen? The Wii U never got one. The 3DS was failing at $249 and that's the only reason it got marked down so soon.

Parents are not going to buy it for their kids even at that price ($249), and they make up a huge portion of the crowd that drove the 3DS to 70 million units sold. I honestly believe that the Switch needs to come down to $200 USD to really capture the handheld market imo, and I can't see them being able to afford a full $100 price drop for at least another 2.5 years. By that point, would shipping 70 million be feasible? If they're only starting to tap into those kinds of gamers in 2020, I wouldn't be so sure. There will likely be other devices competing for their attention by that point.

Nintendo will also offer plenty of titles for less than $60. Pokemon Stars and Animal Crossing at $60 will have zero problems moving hardware.

They're already selling a mildly enhanced port of Mario Kart for full price. What games do you actually see being sold for less than $60? And while I agree that Animal Crossing and Pokemon wouldn't struggle at that price...are you really going to argue that it would have no impact whatsoever? Of course it will. I don't believe that the improvements the Switch offers over the 3DS will be enough to justify the higher price for hardware and software for many people.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Sure, but when do you think a price drop could realistically happen? The Wii U never got one. The 3DS was failing at $249 and that's the only reason it got marked down so soon.

Parents are not going to buy it for their kids even at that price imo, and they make up a huge portion of the market that drove the 3DS to 70 million units sold. I honestly believe that the Switch needs to come down to $200 USD to really capture the handheld market, and I can't see them being able to afford a full $100 price drop for at least another 2.5 years. By that point, would shipping 70 million be feasible?


They're already selling a mildly enhanced port of Mario Kart for full price. What games do you actually see being sold for less than $60? And while I agree that Animal Crossing and Pokemon wouldn't struggle at that price...are you really going to argue that it would have impact whatsoever? Of course it will. I don't believe that the improvements the Switch offers over the 3DS will be enough to justify the higher price for hardware and software for many people.

- Wii U received a price drop in September, 2013. A number of factors beyond 2013 rendered any additional price drops for the console completely meaningless, so Nintendo held at $299.
- Parents had no problem paying $250 for Wii during 2006-2010. Switch isn't simply a portable device.
- Nintendo has released countless software titles throughout their history below the standard MSRP. One of the most successful DS titles was priced at $20 (Brain Age).

 

[samar11]

Too lazy to read 90 pages but what kind of success are we talking about ? Wii level? 3ds level? or in between?

 

[OnionPowder]

Sure, but when do you think a price drop could realistically happen? The Wii U never got one. The 3DS was failing at $249 and that's the only reason it got marked down so soon.

Parents are not going to buy it for their kids even at that price ($249), and they make up a huge portion of the crowd that drove the 3DS to 70 million units sold. I honestly believe that the Switch needs to come down to $200 USD to really capture the handheld market imo, and I can't see them being able to afford a full $100 price drop for at least another 2.5 years. By that point, would shipping 70 million be feasible? If they're only starting to tap into those kinds of gamers in 2020, I wouldn't be so sure. There will likely be other devices competing for their attention by that point.

Wii U is the only Nintendo console without a huge price drop

You could buy a 2DS for $80 last black Friday.

GameCube and the Wii went down to $99. DS Lites were $50 at one point.

 

[GregLombardi]

I expect a 3DS style price cut and ambassador program before the end of August.

I lol'ed at this. I can safely say ambassador will not be happening. I dont recall if I posted in this thread but I know I voted for better than Wii U.