Support NeoGAF

[choodi]

Just look at those usernames...

 

[zMiiChy-]

I still stand by my initial prediction of Switch resulting as a moderate success, ALA 3DS.

 

[Jack The Nipper]

I've said it for a while now that it will be closer to wii than wii u. Mostly cause of the marketing and slide in take with you features. Even though technically it isn't a revelation. People buy into the box even though plugging a wire in and playing on your tv would have been much more convenient since the box does nothing anyways.

This is how silly people's minds work. Slide it in is amazing!

Not saying the system is bad but this is how all marketing works


It's still too early to know if switch will do that we'll but it could beat wii but seems a little doubtful. It would have to sell out everyday and I'm large numbers for years to do that and so far it doesn't have a game that sells like wii sports did to the everyday man. A wii is still better for retirement homes and such while the switch is a bit too complex for the very casual crowd I feel. The take with you pitch isn't as strong for all so this is the one point that makes me feel is iffy on reaching wii numbers and price.

If they have a wii sports game for fall then maybe.

Wii sold and sold games at a very high level. I worry if switch gets more wii music, fitness games or games with unconventional controls the more successful it is.

 

[Oresama]

This post is the GOAT of the entire thread.

 

[tengiants]

I do believe MK8 is filler yes. Will it sell? Yes. Mostly because people need something to play and a AAA port is a decent option. Doesn't take from the fact that the Switch's original offerings are lackluster in quantity. And I would offer the advice that if it is you with an issue with another's point of view, perhaps you should be the one to refrain from responding. I'm happy to discuss this as much as you'd like and even willing to adjust my outlook, but not if you're going to act so hot out of the gate. It's really up to you.

How do I block users on neogaf?

 

[Hcoregamer00]

It would, in my opinion, show that Nintendo can go on indefinitely, as long as they don't screw it after the Switch, which really lays the groundbreaking foundations for the future.

Switch can become the PlayStation/Xbox brand of Nintendo in terms of continuity.

I would love that, if Nintendo sticks with this brand and make more powerful iterations with full BC (which is given that Nvidia can supply portable power that no one can compare).

 

[jroc74]

I also voted Improvement from GameCube/Wii U.

A middle ground between this and Wii style hit was needed.

Shoulda been a vote for around 3DS numbers, something. Something 3DS related is missing from the poll.

 

[Dark Cloud]

I still stand by my initial prediction of Switch resulting as a moderate success, ALA 3DS.

The 3Ds isn't a moderate success. It would be Nintendos second best selling console of all time. That's a damn good success. Way better than the SNES and NES.

 

[MattKeil]

The 3Ds isn't a moderate success. It would be Nintendos second best selling console of all time. That's a damn good success. Way better than the SNES and NES.

The NES and SNES had a much, much smaller potential customer base. The industry is exponentially larger now. Comparisons to anything older than the Gamecube are meaningless, and even that's pushing it. And the 3DS isn't considered much of a success by business metrics, because you're expected to equal or exceed the hardware's predecessor, which 3DS hasn't even come close to doing.

Predicting failure at this point is silly given how well the system is selling, but predicting huge record-setting success is no less silly. There's no mainstream media hype on the system like there was on the Wii, there's nothing gimmicky to capture the mainstream imagination like the Wii (no, portability is not that, the mainstream is not impressed by portable gaming after 10 years of smartphones), and the system is currently still selling to Nintendo fans and will continue to do so for some time. The Wii U showed us that around 10 million people will buy anything with Nintendo's name on the hardware, so we can't really judge Switch's long term success until those people have Switches and we see how it's penetrating the mainstream market. We may get a glimpse of that this Christmas, but I suspect we won't have a clear picture in this area until sometime next year at the very earliest.

tl;dr - This is a marathon, not a sprint. Calm down.

 

[IrishNinja]

i used to get quoted years back for making fun of some knucklehead who said the WU would be a flop

i have since learned my lesson

so yeah safe to say the switch will outsell the PS 1-4 combined, that seems a fair estimate

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

I think I predicted 70 million plus just on the back of being the 3DS successor alone. Turns out I might have been too conservative.

 

[Macka]

I think I predicted 70 million plus just on the back of being the 3DS successor alone. Turns out I might have been too conservative.

I don't know if it'll hit 70 million. It might be the 3DS successor, but it's priced as a home console and the games are all priced that way as well.

I think that alienates a huge chunk of the handheld audience.

 

[jts]

I would love that, if Nintendo sticks with this brand and make more powerful iterations with full BC (which is given that Nvidia can supply portable power that no one can compare).

That's the dream.

 

[dlauv]

I'm thinking a 3DS style hit at its current traction.

It has potential to get to the Wii/DS ballpark. Imagine low end ports of current gen games. CoD WW2 multi at work.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

I don't know if it'll hit 70 million. It might be the 3DS successor, but it's priced as a home console and the games are all priced that way as well.

I think that alienates a huge chunk of the handheld audience.

It's not going to be priced at $299 forever. Nintendo will also offer plenty of titles for less than $60. Not that it really matters, as games like Zelda and Mario Kart are the types of software people will trip over themselves to pay full price for. Pokemon Stars and Animal Crossing at $60 will have zero problems moving hardware.

 

[Phatosaurus]

I don't think it'll do Wii numbers, but it has surprised me that my girlfriend bought one.
She's never bought a console before, but had a Wii when she was younger.

Anecdotal as fuck, but that indicates to me that the Switch will take back some of the casual market and at least hit 40 million in its lifetime.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Reading some of the revised expectations now that the Switch had a strong launch is hilarious.

Not too long until everything but PS2/DS sales will be a failure.

Then again I don't think it makes much sense to treat and compare the Switch with traditional systems of the past. The upgrade path for the system will make comparison difficult.

 

[PantsuJo]

You'll be quoted. You'll be ridiculed.

The Switch will lap the Xbox 1 within 2 years.

This is for sure, given the fact that ONE sells well only in US.

I don't think we need a GAF-Nostradamus to make this predictions.

Edit: for "well" I mean better than the rest of the world.

 

[fantomena]

Is there some way to found it if I have to eat crow or not? Im actually really interested to find out if i posted here or not.

 

[DavidDesu]

Hey I ended up buying one at launch. Must have said that when it seemed like Nintendo was about to mess the thing up. They've done alright so far. Give us retro games, give us good GameCube ports, keep bringing awesome games like MK8 and SM Odyssey and the thing will do amazingly well.

 

[CaviarMeths]

This is for sure, given the fact that ONE sells well only in US.

I don't think we need a GAF-Nostradamus to make this predictions.

Edit: for "well" I mean better than the rest of the world.

The edit probably isn't needed. XB1's sales split is likely 2:1 for NA vs all other markets combined. Outside of America, it's entirely possible that XB1 is behind the Vita in sales.

 

[DrWong]

Reading some of the revised expectations now that the Switch had a strong launch is hilarious.

Not too long until everything but PS2/DS sales will be a failure.

Then again I don't think it makes much sense to treat and compare the Switch with traditional systems of the past. The upgrade path for the system will make comparison difficult.

Yes, let's talk again in a few iterations after some years on the market, when there'll be no more new goalpost to move on ^^

 

[giapel]

The NES and SNES had a much, much smaller potential customer base. The industry is exponentially larger now. Comparisons to anything older than the Gamecube are meaningless, and even that's pushing it. And the 3DS isn't considered much of a success by business metrics, because you're expected to equal or exceed the hardware's predecessor, which 3DS hasn't even come close to doing.

Predicting failure at this point is silly given how well the system is selling, but predicting huge record-setting success is no less silly. There's no mainstream media hype on the system like there was on the Wii, there's nothing gimmicky to capture the mainstream imagination like the Wii (no, portability is not that, the mainstream is not impressed by portable gaming after 10 years of smartphones), and the system is currently still selling to Nintendo fans and will continue to do so for some time. The Wii U showed us that around 10 million people will buy anything with Nintendo's name on the hardware, so we can't really judge Switch's long term success until those people have Switches and we see how it's penetrating the mainstream market. We may get a glimpse of that this Christmas, but I suspect we won't have a clear picture in this area until sometime next year at the very earliest.

tl;dr - This is a marathon, not a sprint. Calm down.

All great arguments, but can you not tell that the vibe is very positive with the switch. There's actual excitement for the hardware itself, it launched with the best game ever. It follows with 3 potentially monster online multiplayer games (best way to keep a user base from selling the system) and there's a Mario coming within the year. It all just feels right. And if you want some anecdotal evidence, I'm a long time Nintendo fan and I've skipped the WiiU altogether but got a launch Switch. So yeah, growth

 

[cacildo]

So most people now think the switch is a hit

Why is that? What changed after that presentation that made everybody think it would be a disaster?

I mean, the console still what the presentation told us: its a slighlty more powerful wiiu that is totally portable and has zelda... And one motion controlled party game

What made the switch a hit then?


(I think it was just zelda and how people forget how Nintendo can make incredible single player games when they want)

 

[Machina]

Amazing bump. Just eat it....Just eat it.

 

[AniHawk]

So most people now think the switch is a hit

Why is that? What changed after that presentation that made everybody think it would be a disaster?

I mean, the console still what the presentation told us: its a slighlty more powerful wiiu that is totally portable and has zelda... And one motion controlled party game

What made the switch a hit then?


(I think it was just zelda and how people forget how Nintendo can make incredible single player games when they want)

it's the other way around. the system always had an attractive value proposition on its own and the issues that came up after the switch presentation were way overblown.

 

[jts]

it's the other way around. the system always had an attractive value proposition on its own and the issues that came up after the switch presentation were way overblown.

Yeah I always found it strange when after the initial "woah" reveal then suddenly the tone changed after the presentation because, apparently, Nintendo people are wacky, and also every little thing started to get nitpicked at relentlessly.

But the reasons why it was "whoa" upon reveal in the first place never really left.

 

[faridmon]

I think I predicted 70 million plus just on the back of being the 3DS successor alone. Turns out I might have been too conservative.

I think 70 Million is a bit much.

They need to get back the casuals if they want to hit that number, bundling 1-2 Switch might be a start.

Hey I ended up buying one at launch. Must have said that when it seemed like Nintendo was about to mess the thing up. They've done alright so far. Give us retro games, give us good GameCube ports, keep bringing awesome games like MK8 and SM Odyssey and the thing will do amazingly well.

Is it weird that is the most exciting thing I want from the Switch?

Fucking loved the Gamecube, hope we get games from that system

 

[Milly Osworth]

It was sold out at my local Media Markt, cool to see 👍🏼

 

[cw_sasuke]

Yeah I always found it strange when after the initial "woah" reveal then suddenly the tone changed after the presentation because, apparently, Nintendo people are wacky, and also every little thing started to get nitpicked at relentlessly.

But the reasons why it was "whoa" upon reveal in the first place never really left.

I think the price point just hurt a lot of people that thought they would be able to get a cheap popular Nintendo HD system as a secondary or third system.

The Nintendo reality check hit them hard. Don't even wanna know how long the shortages would have lasted of they could have released this thing for 200.

But yeah expecting the Switch to the same price as the 3DS XL was a bit naive even with those rumors.

 

[Boy Wander]

Anecdotally my local GAME got a new batch in yesterday for the long UK bank holiday weekend. As I speak, it's not quite midday on Saturday and all they had left was a pro controller which I bought, one left and two right joycons. They tell me its selling as quick as it comes in.

 

[MilkyJoe]

Anecdotally my local GAME got a new batch in yesterday for the long UK bank holiday weekend. As I speak, it's not quite midday on Saturday and all they had left was a pro controller which I bought, one left and two right joycons. They tell me its selling as quick as it comes in.

Stock checker has them in stock almost everywhere today, be interesting to see what it looks like tomorrow.

Not surprisingly Game is only selling bundles again. Pricks.

 

[FUNKNOWN iXi]

People buy into the box even though plugging a wire in and playing on your tv would have been much more convenient since the box does nothing anyways.

This is how silly people's minds work. Slide it in is amazing!

You're forgetting that the dock provides additional USB ports and powers the device.

 

[Hasney]

Anecdotally my local GAME got a new batch in yesterday for the long UK bank holiday weekend. As I speak, it's not quite midday on Saturday and all they had left was a pro controller which I bought, one left and two right joycons. They tell me its selling as quick as it comes in.

Amazon UK had them and sold them. Got another batch of Neons coming early May but if someone is reading this and wants one, check Prime Now. My local one still has stock by the looks of things.

 

[Hasney]

People buy into the box even though plugging a wire in and playing on your tv would have been much more convenient since the box does nothing anyways.

This is how silly people's minds work. Slide it in is amazing!

Then I'd have to plug in my LAN cable and possibly Pro Controller if it needs charging too. I'd at least need a USB hub, power and HDMI which would be annoying all at the big end of a single cable.

 

[ViolentP]

How do I block users on neogaf?

Click my username and view public profile. On the right there should be a link to ignore my posts.

 

[Painguy]

It'll make Nintendo money.

 

[schuelma]

Yeah I always found it strange when after the initial "woah" reveal then suddenly the tone changed after the presentation because, apparently, Nintendo people are wacky, and also every little thing started to get nitpicked at relentlessly.

But the reasons why it was "whoa" upon reveal in the first place never really left.

I think the presentation temporarily put the emphasis back on motion controls and off of the "switch" factor by leading with 1,2 Switch and ARMS. I assume that put some people on gaf off of the system. Other than that minor hiccup marketing has been on point.

 

[The Greek Freak]

As long as they don't ruin the entire point of the switch by putting out a separate 3ds successor yes.

Also they need to stop trying to shoehorn motion in games like ARMS.

The wii sports crowd don't care anymore, and shoving that shit into other games will only be a waste of time/money and make the games look worse to people who recognize that stuff as the crap it is.

 

[giapel]

As long as they don't ruin the entire point of the switch by putting out a separate 3ds successor yes.

Also they need to stop trying to shoehorn motion in games like ARMS.

The wii sports crowd don't care anymore, and shoving that shit into other games will only be a waste of time/money and make the games look worse to people who recognize that stuff as the crap it is.

The very fact that one of the main modes of the switch is with the joycons attached will protect us from that. I think. I hope.

 

[Skittzo0413]

So most people now think the switch is a hit

Why is that? What changed after that presentation that made everybody think it would be a disaster?

I mean, the console still what the presentation told us: its a slighlty more powerful wiiu that is totally portable and has zelda... And one motion controlled party game

What made the switch a hit then?


(I think it was just zelda and how people forget how Nintendo can make incredible single player games when they want)

I mean, it's also that they sold 700,000 more units than they had projected in March and it's still selling out as fast as it's restocked, even almost 2 months in. But yeah Zelda being a GOAT contender definitely helped.

I also think most people seriously underestimated the appeal of a MK8 port (enhanced port really) less than 2 months into the console's life.

 

[TheDinoman]

Also they need to stop trying to shoehorn motion in games like ARMS.

The wii sports crowd don't care anymore, and shoving that shit into other games will only be a waste of time/money and make the games look worse to people who recognize that stuff as the crap it is.

Good thing it's been well confirmed that ARMS has traditional control scheme options.

 

[alt27]

Yes , think it will do very well . But semi dependent on third party releases . These games sell hardware , let's not lie . So if switch can accommodate some of them , along with the potrbalilty factor , I can see it doing 50m in its life span

 

[jts]

As long as they don't ruin the entire point of the switch by putting out a separate 3ds successor yes.

Also they need to stop trying to shoehorn motion in games like ARMS.

The wii sports crowd don't care anymore, and shoving that shit into other games will only be a waste of time/money and make the games look worse to people who recognize that stuff as the crap it is.

"Shoehorn" the control system the whole game was designed around?

 

[Vital Tundra]

Switch will do well. It won't be some crazy phenomenon, but as it stands it's killing it right now. What will be more impressive is it's attach rate of games. Mario Kart and Splatoon will have a massive attach rate compared to Zelda a year on.

 

[Veitsev]

So most people now think the switch is a hit

Why is that? What changed after that presentation that made everybody think it would be a disaster?

I mean, the console still what the presentation told us: its a slighlty more powerful wiiu that is totally portable and has zelda... And one motion controlled party game

What made the switch a hit then?


(I think it was just zelda and how people forget how Nintendo can make incredible single player games when they want)

Nothing changed. It was always an interesting product with a GOAT launch title in Zelda. Outside of Neogaf and the most hardcore gaming outlets the reception still remained positive and even here there was still a lot of hype. The mass market didn't even see the presentation. We are talking about a presentation aimed at Japanese stock investors that aired at near midnight in the West and was fully in Japanese requiring subtitles. This is a forum full of fanboys that freak the fuck out over the smallest thing possible and concern trolling poorly disguised as "industry discussion". Even in the best light possible, Neogaf is a community of hardcore gamers that will look at things differently than the mass market and general sentiment here isn't predictive of anything.

 

[Waji]

There should be a choice between "improvement from Gamecube" and "Wii success".
The gap seems to big. Between Wii U and gamecube it's about ~10+M, but between Gamecube and Wii it's much more.

It's weird to consider Wii U, gamecube, Wii and then... smartphone ?
Why not adding the Nintendo handheld then, especially as the Switch is now both.

 

[Principate]

As long as they don't ruin the entire point of the switch by putting out a separate 3ds successor yes.

Also they need to stop trying to shoehorn motion in games like ARMS.

The wii sports crowd don't care anymore, and shoving that shit into other games will only be a waste of time/money and make the games look worse to people who recognize that stuff as the crap it is.

Errr 1 2 switch shipped like a million in a month. While the interest in those sorts of games is nowhere near wii sports level it's not like it completely dissapeared.

 

[Hilarion]

Beating WiiU, yes.
Beating Wii, no.
Beating PS4/X1, lol.


Will it be a succes for Nintendo? They will claim its a succes but it wont be. Quote me on this in 2,5 years.

PS4, no, but I think it's pretty likely to outsell the XB1 lifetime. The XB1 is at just under ~30 million lifetime and might well end up capping off around 50 million or so. That's an easily reachable target for Switch.

 

[Lord of Castamere]

I personally can't wait for the Yoshi Carousal.