ViolentP
Member
Being that the concept of success is subjective, I expect that even if the Switch sold 200 million units, you would still have people to argue that doesn't constitute success.
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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
- Thread starter Gurish
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Being that the concept of success is subjective, I expect that even if the Switch sold 200 million units, you would still have people to argue that doesn't constitute success.
I picked "Improvement from GameCube/Wii U", so not wrong 
Looked up my post and I couldn't understand why they didn't pack in 1 2 Switch and that it'd be better for sales if they did that. Not sure about that anymore, since that game isn't turning out to be the 'casual' Wii Sports-ish hit it could've been. Zelda and now MK turned out to be everything.
Looked up my post and I couldn't understand why they didn't pack in 1 2 Switch and that it'd be better for sales if they did that. Not sure about that anymore, since that game isn't turning out to be the 'casual' Wii Sports-ish hit it could've been. Zelda and now MK turned out to be everything.3DS is the least successful Nintendo handheld of all time (not counting the Virtual Boy), tracking downward, selling 40% of it's predecessor. Just about every analyst would describe the 3DS as Nintendo's handhelds being in a terrible position.
Nintendo's home console pillar is destroyed, and Nintendo is now throwing all (almost all) of their muscle behind making a fantastic handheld.
And you would be abundantly satisfied that this handheld/home/hybrid console would be a success if it reached 3DS numbers? You think the bar should be significantly lower (to the point where 3DS+WiiU = "delusion")? Somewhere around "not driving Nintendo into bankruptcy"?
Those would be unreasonable people. I think 3DS+WiiU is being very fair. It makes much more sense than GameCube/WiiU vs Wii vs iPhone.
Technically it's also replacing Vita. So if Switch doesn't outsell 3DS + Wii U + Vita it's clearly nothing but a failure.
KoopaPoopa
Neo Member
When the Wii was selling like mad it felt like I was constantly reading comments about how it would stop any day now. Just a five year long fad.
We aren't even to the fad part yet, people are still acting like is a normal launch that could crater like the Wii U any second. It's going to be a fun generation.
ghostwritingduck
Member
Owning one, I think Nintendo has nailed it. I imagine a fully backwards compatible Switch 2 that has higher graphic fidelity once prices of new technology goes down.
I will be stunned if it doesn't outsell the XB1 worldwide, and I'm including the Scorpio in that statement. I won't predict it outdoing the PS4, but I won't laugh at the idea either.
ViolentP
Member
The Wii had something the Switch nor any other platform has that guaranteed its success. Everyone needs to work harder than the Wii did to reach those numbers today.
OrbitalBeard
Member
In a thread full of entertaining posts, this is my new favorite. You're going in hard, even after the information we have, two months from launch.
Corrected
The real question is : what is a success ?
For me a success is around 30-40M and I think the Switch can reach it and beyond.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
It could beat the XB1 very easily judging by it's current sales estimates if it sells on par with the 3DS or just slightly below. I mean the XB1 probably isn't even going to outsell the 3DS at the rate it's going.
Sales Juggernaut the XB1 is not.
I don't remember if I posted in this thread or not but I was definitely feeling awful about it after the Switch presentation. Very up and down reaction, where the initial reveal had me thinking it'd be a huge hit, the January presentation brought me waaaaay down, and I think it was a Digital Foundry video that emphasized how impressive it was as a handheld that gave me a different perspective closer to launch. I ended up buying one myself, although it doesn't feel ready and I'm trying to sell it. Regardless, though, I see the appeal and I think it'll beat the 3DS but not touch the DS or Wii.
The XB1 was at 26 million worldwide at the end of last year. I can assure you it isn't going to outsell the 3DS.
Edit - that's apparently an estimate. I saw another figure at 30 million. Either way, it isn't passing the 3DS.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
It's already a success. This isn't like the 3DS where sales were slow and picked up later or like the Wii U, right out of the gate it's selling millions and will continue to sell millions more right up to the holiday. It already beat out Xbox One during their launch and there's no reason why that momentum will halt.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
That's what I'm saying. Frankly if it sells less than or on par with it looking at what Nintendo's probable estimations for the switch it'll very likely be a disappointment.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Wait.....is the XB1 really at 26-27 million units? That's even lower than I thought. I wonder how much it's sold since the start of this year. I can't imagine it's all that much.
I might be on to something lol
Principate
Saint Titanfall
XB1 mainly just sells in the US and the UK, with the odd territory here or there. The PS4 dwarfs it in sales worldwide. I mean frankly it has little in the way of world wide popular exclusives is weaker and costs roughly the same. In a lot of these countries the PS3 was beating the Xbox 360 anyway. Just how it goes.
Skittzo0413
Member
This post implies that it's even more outlandish to say it would beat PS4 or XB1 than it is to say it would beat the Wii?? I still don't see the PS4 selling as much as the Wii in the same time period, although it's doable. But the XB1??? Switch should very handily beat that, and somehow claiming beating that is harder than beating the Wii is all kinds of backwards.
Unless Scorpio pulls something out of left field with it (like a huge amount of exclusives) then the Switch should probably catch up to XB1 by 2019, if not sooner.
ViolentP
Member
Seeing as the primary purpose of a business is to profit, I would say the moment Nintendo makes a profit on the Switch, it can be considered a success. Ultimately they would be the only ones to truly know.
ElectricBlanketFire
Member
I said it wouldn't be. Things are looking good and I'm glad.
clevbrowns94
Member
Lol to this post. The PS4 is going to do around Wii numbers in the end, so why is it no for the Wii and lol for the PS4? And the Xbone is going to end up at around 50 to 60 million, so no way that's a lol. I'm guessing you are just clueless about all of the console sales.
Theonik
Member
I don't think it will outsell the PSP tbh so that will retain the particular throne!
Ah watch that "Wii type hit" percentage to creep up as it's becoming obvious that the system will be doing very well.
The poll is somewhat losing it's potency this way.
And yes I voted that in January.
I can't see this hitting Wii numbers. No way. The different segment of consumers that bought the shit out of the Wii aren't interested in the Switch. Nursing homes, soccer moms, non gamer wives and husbands, no way. The hardcore gamers and Nintendo fans aren't enough to hit Wii numbers.
foxuzamaki
Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
Ima do it
Claiming the combination of the two as being the barometer because it's "replacing" both systems doesn't seem sensible to me, because it seems to take on the assumption that those systems had separate audiences. Given how little the Wii U sold, it's not unreasonable to imagine that most of that went to Nintendo diehards, meaning people who are also likely to own a 3DS. Are those dual-system owners supposed to buy two Switches to make up for that? Even now I wouldn't rule out Switch surpassing both but I'm not sold on the rationale you're using.
At the least, it's certainly proven the people wrong who claimed that it would be a dead-on-arrival continuation of the Wii U's downward tract. Nintendo doubling their original production projections suggests they believe they're definitely on to something, and their marketing combined with word-of-mouth is already making the system's point way better than the Wii U ever did. I think we can pretty safely remove "Nintendoomed" from the list of possible outcomes at this point.
Cheebo was the real MVP.
Chill Penguin
Member
Thing is a phenomenon so far, stock still being gobbled up immediately. Wouldn't be surprised to see it sell 75-100 million. Just wait until Pokemon hits, my god.
CaviarMeths
Member
Iwata said back in 2014 that NX would be a family of systems with different form factors and the same OS/software. He compared the model to Apple's for iPhone, iPad, etc.
So the current Switch may not exceed Wii U + 3DS combined. Including a future more portable SKU though? It's gonna shit on that LTD from great heights.
So the current Switch may not exceed Wii U + 3DS combined. Including a future more portable SKU though? It's gonna shit on that LTD from great heights.
I don't know if I ever committed to a hard prediction before now, but I do believe I've made some posts before about how Nintendo is gearing up for a success, and I think it's pretty clear now all the steps they've taken and plans they've made in the past ~2-3 years are coming to fruition with the Switch. Well, technically they came to fruition early/mid last year, and that's continuing with the Switch.
Almost every single thing about the Switch's situation for the first year (a naturally crucial time for a console) is better than both of its predecessors (3DS and Wii U). Better hardware, better software, better price, better marketing, better gimmick/usp, better launch. And while it may not have been obvious that some of these things were better, like the launch, time has shown that they clearly are. So with the Wii U, basically everything about it was bad, and it failed. With the 3DS, some things about it were bad, some were good, and some quick adjustments made it successful. So when the Switch launches fixing its predecessor's problems and still having room to grow and improve over time, then it's not hard to see how it can max or exceed the 3DS.
The switch just has so much going for it early on that it feels like a decent snowball is possible for it. The marketing got people interested early, and it launched with a legendary multi-10/10 game that will give people that "gotta have it" kinda feeling. The hardware's got a good feel to it and the OS is snappy so when people get their hands on one it impresses them. It sells itself when people take it out of the house and share multiplayer on the go (something that has never really happened before. Not in this way.). And of course, early sales will give developers more confidence, leading to more games. More games mean more sales, etc. And it snowballs from there.
Then of course there's the fact that it's serving a unique audience that its competition isn't. The 3DS audience is substantial, and the Vita audience is going to need a home soon. Vita devs as well.
Then there's the potential for price drops, bundles, and revisions just like consoles always have. It's pretty obvious that a $200-$250 Switch with 3 years of built up library is an attractive proposition. And that library is likely to be quite strong when we see that unified software continue to ramp up. I also think it's important to make note of the particular type of software that Nintendo is focusing on early in the Switch's life. It seems like they're really listening to what people have been saying they've wanted for a long time. Zelda is the type of Zelda people have been asking for for a long time. Same with Mario Odyssey. It's not 3D World 2, it's the 64/Sunshine style people have been asking for. They gave MK8D the battle mode everyone wanted. They fast tracked a proper sequel for Splatoon, showing confidence in their new IP. They're making a brand new, character focused IP (Arms) and are giving it a lot of focus. Xenoblade 2 is coming year 1 (or asap if it doesn't make it). I'd even put Fire Emblem Warriors on the list. After Hyrule Warriors lots of people were asking for it. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we really do see a new Metroid soon given all of this focus on what fans want.
And then, something that I think is very important (potentially the most important thing when all is said and done), is everything Nintendo is doing outside of the Switch that will likely have very positive effects on it. In fact, I think we can say these things already have had a strong positive effect on the Switch.
For the past 2 years or so, Nintendo has done a significant amount of work to reorganize themselves as a company and to reinvigorate consumer interest and increase their relevance. Pretty much every decision they've made has been smart, and every bit of marketing they've been a part of has been successful, and every product they've made has captured audience interest.
I think these types of things are the crucial difference between 2011 Nintendo and 2017 Nintendo. In the past, people have complained about Nintendo, and Nintendo has said things like "Please understand", and they'd say they'd fix things. But then they'd never take the steps necessary to do so. But that's not what happened this time. Back when they first started talking about NX, they said the same things. That they'll fix the problems. The difference is, this time they laid out a clear plan of how they were going to fix it, how they were going to change the company to fix things. And we began seeing different bits of news pretty consistently about various steps they were taking, and the unique type of hardware the NX would be. These things that they've already done, are still doing, and have yet to complete are going to make Nintendo a more successful and relevant company than they've been in quite a while, which can only have positive impacts on the Switch.
So, after that stream of thoughts, do I expect a Wii-like success? No. Not really. I won't write off the possibility, but I don't see any reason to expect that of any console. But given everything, I'll put my bet on 70-80million.
Almost every single thing about the Switch's situation for the first year (a naturally crucial time for a console) is better than both of its predecessors (3DS and Wii U). Better hardware, better software, better price, better marketing, better gimmick/usp, better launch. And while it may not have been obvious that some of these things were better, like the launch, time has shown that they clearly are. So with the Wii U, basically everything about it was bad, and it failed. With the 3DS, some things about it were bad, some were good, and some quick adjustments made it successful. So when the Switch launches fixing its predecessor's problems and still having room to grow and improve over time, then it's not hard to see how it can max or exceed the 3DS.
The switch just has so much going for it early on that it feels like a decent snowball is possible for it. The marketing got people interested early, and it launched with a legendary multi-10/10 game that will give people that "gotta have it" kinda feeling. The hardware's got a good feel to it and the OS is snappy so when people get their hands on one it impresses them. It sells itself when people take it out of the house and share multiplayer on the go (something that has never really happened before. Not in this way.). And of course, early sales will give developers more confidence, leading to more games. More games mean more sales, etc. And it snowballs from there.
Then of course there's the fact that it's serving a unique audience that its competition isn't. The 3DS audience is substantial, and the Vita audience is going to need a home soon. Vita devs as well.
Then there's the potential for price drops, bundles, and revisions just like consoles always have. It's pretty obvious that a $200-$250 Switch with 3 years of built up library is an attractive proposition. And that library is likely to be quite strong when we see that unified software continue to ramp up. I also think it's important to make note of the particular type of software that Nintendo is focusing on early in the Switch's life. It seems like they're really listening to what people have been saying they've wanted for a long time. Zelda is the type of Zelda people have been asking for for a long time. Same with Mario Odyssey. It's not 3D World 2, it's the 64/Sunshine style people have been asking for. They gave MK8D the battle mode everyone wanted. They fast tracked a proper sequel for Splatoon, showing confidence in their new IP. They're making a brand new, character focused IP (Arms) and are giving it a lot of focus. Xenoblade 2 is coming year 1 (or asap if it doesn't make it). I'd even put Fire Emblem Warriors on the list. After Hyrule Warriors lots of people were asking for it. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we really do see a new Metroid soon given all of this focus on what fans want.
And then, something that I think is very important (potentially the most important thing when all is said and done), is everything Nintendo is doing outside of the Switch that will likely have very positive effects on it. In fact, I think we can say these things already have had a strong positive effect on the Switch.
For the past 2 years or so, Nintendo has done a significant amount of work to reorganize themselves as a company and to reinvigorate consumer interest and increase their relevance. Pretty much every decision they've made has been smart, and every bit of marketing they've been a part of has been successful, and every product they've made has captured audience interest.
- Restructuring the company to bring their software teams together, and give the younger devs more freedom and focus
- Amiibos
- The mobile initiative
- Changing their in-store branding (aka classic red comeback)
- Making Zelda the E3 spotlight
- Mario at the Olympics
- Making a freaking theme park
- Getting things set up to make other media like movies (we haven't seen the results of this yet, but it's important that they're doing it. being more of a multimedia company will likely help them a lot)
- More licensing of characters/IP
- Better relationship with indies
- NES Classic (sucks about the supply, but the item was hot)
- And, of course, being a part of the Pokemon GO phenomenon
I think these types of things are the crucial difference between 2011 Nintendo and 2017 Nintendo. In the past, people have complained about Nintendo, and Nintendo has said things like "Please understand", and they'd say they'd fix things. But then they'd never take the steps necessary to do so. But that's not what happened this time. Back when they first started talking about NX, they said the same things. That they'll fix the problems. The difference is, this time they laid out a clear plan of how they were going to fix it, how they were going to change the company to fix things. And we began seeing different bits of news pretty consistently about various steps they were taking, and the unique type of hardware the NX would be. These things that they've already done, are still doing, and have yet to complete are going to make Nintendo a more successful and relevant company than they've been in quite a while, which can only have positive impacts on the Switch.
So, after that stream of thoughts, do I expect a Wii-like success? No. Not really. I won't write off the possibility, but I don't see any reason to expect that of any console. But given everything, I'll put my bet on 70-80million.
thestopsign
Member
Me from the day of this thread:
I think I was low on the max side and probably the amount sold this year, but not the worst prediction. I'd adjust my prediction to the floor being SNES and the max being GBA. It could reach Wii numbers if they make modular adjustments to it or continue to make SKU changes and upgrades.
That happened with the DS line. The Lite model was a beast, because it was cheaper and better. I hope something simmilar happen to Switch.
Freezasaurus
Member
When it comes to the history books? Nope. Like a lot of the hardware Nintendo comes out with, the concept is pretty great. But what ends up hurting Nintendo in the long run is the third-party support that wavers and dies off over the first year or two of the system lifecycle because devs can't port their multiplat games to the underpowered system. Don't say it won't happen this time - it absolutely will.
Nintendo has always made stellar first-party games. And if that's all you want out of the Switch, it's a safe bet that you won't be disappointed.
Nintendo has always made stellar first-party games. And if that's all you want out of the Switch, it's a safe bet that you won't be disappointed.
thestopsign
Member
This is a repost from another thread also, but I think it clarifies a bit why there was such a negative reaction to the live reveal and why most of those worries haven't been justified... yet.
Many of the initial worries have been quelled.
1. High price of entry: Has yet to be an issue in most of the major regions. It will need a price drop eventually, but it is doing fine at $300 right now.
2. Zelda as the only launch title: Worked out fine. Nintendo knew they had something special on their hands with Zelda and they let it do the rest of the work.
3. Paid online/funky voice app: Rumors out of Japan have the paid online priced at ~$25 a year, which is pretty reasonable. We have yet to see how the rest of their online will function through the app, this could be a legit worry.
4. Not enough support from 3rd party publishers and weak 2017 lineup: I think Nintendo solved this in two ways, they actually paced out their line up very well on the 1st party side, then they had the Nindies direct right before launch that showed how they were going to fill in gaps between their tent pole releases. They also aren't blowing their entire load in the first year, which gives them plenty to work with moving forward. They may not have traditional 3rd party support yet, but it could come eventually if the system sells well initially (and it has).
5. High accessory prices: This hasn't really proved to be much of an issue yet, at least it isn't taken into account by many when they are thinking of buying the system. This could change as the bigger multiplayer titles are rolling out now with Mario Kart etc.
I think holding the system makes all the difference. It has a natural appeal and it will be easy to market it. The system itself is designed to be viral. You can demonstrate its versatility to someone in person very easily and play multiplayer with them right on the spot. Anecdotally, I am now personally up to 3 friends that never had a Wii U that got a Switch in its first month.
Many of the initial worries have been quelled.
1. High price of entry: Has yet to be an issue in most of the major regions. It will need a price drop eventually, but it is doing fine at $300 right now.
2. Zelda as the only launch title: Worked out fine. Nintendo knew they had something special on their hands with Zelda and they let it do the rest of the work.
3. Paid online/funky voice app: Rumors out of Japan have the paid online priced at ~$25 a year, which is pretty reasonable. We have yet to see how the rest of their online will function through the app, this could be a legit worry.
4. Not enough support from 3rd party publishers and weak 2017 lineup: I think Nintendo solved this in two ways, they actually paced out their line up very well on the 1st party side, then they had the Nindies direct right before launch that showed how they were going to fill in gaps between their tent pole releases. They also aren't blowing their entire load in the first year, which gives them plenty to work with moving forward. They may not have traditional 3rd party support yet, but it could come eventually if the system sells well initially (and it has).
5. High accessory prices: This hasn't really proved to be much of an issue yet, at least it isn't taken into account by many when they are thinking of buying the system. This could change as the bigger multiplayer titles are rolling out now with Mario Kart etc.
I think holding the system makes all the difference. It has a natural appeal and it will be easy to market it. The system itself is designed to be viral. You can demonstrate its versatility to someone in person very easily and play multiplayer with them right on the spot. Anecdotally, I am now personally up to 3 friends that never had a Wii U that got a Switch in its first month.
midasmulligan
Member
You forgot gameboy...and GBA
Colonel Mustard
Banned
Last_colossi
Member
Once Super Mario Odyssey hits this year and the Switch get's that inevitable price drop (probably to $250) it'll surpass the Xbox One in sales quicker than you think.
Over it's life span I would put the Switch at around the current sales of the 3DS or higher, so about 65-70 Million units in total.
Over it's life span I would put the Switch at around the current sales of the 3DS or higher, so about 65-70 Million units in total.
it's got a dpad and shoulder buttons too
better lump in the NES and SNES as well
I'm going to update my forecast to best handheld with HDMI out gimmick 😎
midasmulligan
Member
Dammmit! Great catch!
IDK man, I'm usually optimist about the Switch but this sounds like too much! :lol
But yeah, hope they'll hit that target!
I think Switch will hit numbers slightly higher than the 3DS did. It won't be a revolution, but what's more important is that Nintendo will be able to go on and bring at least one more generation of a console with another great games.
I'd wish Switch to become a huge success and lead to all the third party publisher release more games in it, since I'd love to have all my games with me always, but I just don't see it happen.
I'd wish Switch to become a huge success and lead to all the third party publisher release more games in it, since I'd love to have all my games with me always, but I just don't see it happen.
jts
...hate me...
I think that if Nintendo hits 3DS+ numbers with the Switch, those will be a lot more sustainable that Wii's numbers. It would, in my opinion, show that Nintendo can go on indefinitely, as long as they don't screw it after the Switch, which really lays the groundbreaking foundations for the future.
Switch can become the PlayStation/Xbox brand of Nintendo in terms of continuity.
There's a difference between what Switch seems able to do and what it has to do.
Is the Switch a handheld? Is it a home console? Is it a hybrid? IMO, the answer is yes to all three. Despite what Reggie might say about the 3DS and Switch coexisting, the 3DS is at the end of it's life, and if Switch didn't exist we'd be asking where 4DS was. 4DS isn't coming. So why are we judging Switch as if it were purely a home console, with no middle ground between GameCube/WiiU's 22/13 million unit failures and Wii's 100 million unit success?
If Nintendo was able to achieve [X] in one market and [Y] in another, and they merge these two markets together, the most basic measurement of success for this merged-market is [X+Y]. Maybe there are some problems involved in merging the two markets. Maybe they perfectly compliment each other. But the most basic question is... was this a good merge, or a bad merge?
3DS+WiiU is a very easy comparison because it's chronologically very close to today, and because it represents Nintendo's worst-selling handheld paired with their worst-selling home console. It's naturally giving Nintendo the widest possible chance for success.
Judging Switch purely as a handheld, if it achieves results similar to 3DS's 60 million (or fails to get even that far), while it's the undisputed #1 priority of Nintendo's first party and receiving fantastic system-sellers like Zelda BOTW... that represents yet another contraction in Nintendo's wavering handheld market (at a time when their home console market has collapsed). I don't see how anyone could possibly call that a "success". I would call sub-3DS a failure (even if it's not the outright "we have to leave the industry now" level of failure occupied by consoles like the GameCube/WiiU/Dreamcast).
If we add WiiU's meager 13 million units to 3DS's ~60 million, we get around 75 million. That's growth. Not a lot of growth, but it's positive. It doesn't clear GBA's 80 million units, but it makes Switch "not the worst-selling Nintendo handheld" and that's movement in the right direction (oh, I forgot to mention Virtual Boy again, but you know you're scraping the bottom of the barrel when you have to bring up Virtual Boy).
I'm surprised that people think that comparing Switch to 3DS+WiiU or even 3DS by itself is setting the bar too high for Switch. I guess that makes me optimistic about Switch's chances.
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