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[KenzinFive]

I was planning on installing impact windows and impact glass for my sliding glass doors in my house here in Florida. My HOA was supposed to meet and approve the work in mid-September. So of course, Irma comes around right before that.

I'm really hoping it trends north. Otherwise, I'm going to have to put up plywood over my windows again and hope for the best. I got lucky with Matthew last year, but I don't want to gamble again.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

I was planning on installing impact windows and impact glass for my sliding glass doors in my house here in Florida. My HOA was supposed to meet and approve the work in mid-September. So of course, Irma comes around right before that.

I'm really hoping it trends north. Otherwise, I'm going to have to put up plywood over my windows again and hope for the best. I got lucky with Matthew last year, but I don't want to gamble again.

Given it is simple windows with no obvious change to the exterior, why the hell would an HOA need to approve such a thing?

 

[bigmakattack]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/904391033932406784

Not much of anything right now, but this system is the gulf isn't looking too bad, so this might be something to keep an eye on. Hopefully it amounts to nothing.

Models doing nothing with it at least.

 

[KenzinFive]

Given it is simple windows with no obvious change to the exterior, why the hell would an HOA need to approve such a thing?

Beats me, but that's what I was told when I went in person to see the association. It might have to do with the fact that we would need to completely reinstall the sliding glass doors in the back, frame and all.

Even if I broke protocol and just snuck the installers in tomorrow, they probably wouldn't get it done in time for Irma.

EDIT: Got off the phone with someone, it would take a month to manufacture all the materials, so I guess I'm stuck using plywood until October or later. Also it's $6000, but I can finance. Just great...

 

[j_k_redtail]

Prepare now. If you have extra food and supplis who cares.

If you need to leave, leave.. have a plan of action.

I freaked out and bought about gallons of bottled water, some nonperishable foods, and some extra batteries for my flashlight. I'm pretty far inland but our urban infrastructure is notoriously weak and we've had outages/boil water advisories in the past. Can't be too careful.

 

[Gamecocks625]

I've lived through a big hurricane in South Carolina with Hugo. I'm not sure how Columbia was affected, but Sumter just to the east is where I grew up and we were without power and running water for over a week. So yeah, keep your eye on this.

I lived in the upstate back then but my wife lived hear Charleston and yeah...it was bad

 

[teh_pwn]

Changed my connecting flight to avoid this in Florida.

 

[piratepwnsninja]

Lastest GEFS shows the median path coming right through Charleston. I'm making contingency plans to have my mom and sister come visit us in Illinois just in case this path holds.

 

[bigmakattack]

Still massive differences between the GFS and Euro upper level pattern in the 7+ day range. Most Euro ensembles recently have been out to sea while GFS members show mostly landfall. Still very low certainty regarding coastal threat.

Storm is still gonna be dangerously close to Caribbean Islands and the Bahamas are gonna take a direct hit looks like.

 

[ringlord]

Lastest GEFS shows the median path coming right through Charleston. I'm making contingency plans to have my mom and sister come visit us in Illinois just in case this path holds.

I'm in Charleston. One thing I've learned over the years is that the path always changes this far out. 3-5 days out is when you start executing on your plans, but it's good to already have those plans ready as early as possible. So good on you.

 

[MrJames]

12z Euro:
Out to sea with no US landfall but continues the trend to the south and west. At this rate, it may end up in the Gulf Of Mexico. Any further movement to the west guarantees a hit for Florida. Too far away though. Most models agree on the movements the next 3-5 days parking it just north of Hispaniola with a WNW motion.

 

[teh_pwn]

Lastest GEFS shows the median path coming right through Charleston. I'm making contingency plans to have my mom and sister come visit us in Illinois just in case this path holds.

That pressure implies hurricane status all the way to Atlanta. Wtf.

 

[witness]

12z Euro:
Out to sea with no US landfall but continues the trend to the south and west. At this rate, it may end up in the Gulf Of Mexico. Any further movement to the west guarantees a hit for Florida. Too far away though. Most models agree on the movements the next 3-5 days parking it just north of Hispaniola with a WNW motion.

Save us Disney

 

[mordecaii83]

12z Euro:
Out to sea with no US landfall but continues the trend to the south and west. At this rate, it may end up in the Gulf Of Mexico. Any further movement to the west guarantees a hit for Florida. Too far away though. Most models agree on the movements the next 3-5 days parking it just north of Hispaniola with a WNW motion.

Legit starting to worry a bit, looks like it's time to throw that emergency kit together.

 

[Common Knowledge]

That model chart is so confusing cause there's too sections of reds for the wind power. I don't know what section of red is for the area that is reaching into Florida in that model. I assume (hope) the 52-64 range.

 

[Solidsnakejej]

That model chart is so confusing cause there's too sections of reds for the wind power. I don't know what section of red is for the area that is reaching into Florida in that model. I assume (hope) the 52-64 range.

Yes, basically the upper red would be within the purple/pink area, you can look at the color chart as the bottom being the outside of the storm and working its way in the further you go up.

 

[Kusagari]

Jesus, people are already panicking in South Florida.

All water gone from Sams.

 

[Chumly]

I would be very surprised if it hit that intensity. However if they off by as much as 30MB it would still be an incredibly powerful storm.
If GFS get's the intensity right though then...wow...that would be just gobsmackingly bad. Also imagine the tornados that thing could spawn.
882MB would put it equal with the monster that was Hurricane Gilbert, only it would be further north and probably stronger because of the pressure difference at that latitude.

It's well known online that the GFS model is completely messed up when it comes to intensity. Everyone is saying just add 30-50 MB to it minimum. This still brings the risk of a potential cat 5 hurricane but we are not going to see a sci fy hypercane coming up the coast.

 

[teh_pwn]

Jesus, people are already panicking in South Florida.

All water gone from Sams.

Pretty good chance it will hit as a cat 4 or 5 so it makes sense. Actually I would consider driving out of town state if you can.

 

[MrJames]

12z Euro ensembles

Pretty much a crapshoot after 5 days.

 

[Master Yoshi]

Jesus, people are already panicking in South Florida.

All water gone from Sams.

Maybe they didn't order enough.

 

[DaBargainHunta]

I was planning on installing impact windows and impact glass for my sliding glass doors in my house here in Florida. My HOA was supposed to meet and approve the work in mid-September. So of course, Irma comes around right before that.

I'm really hoping it trends north. Otherwise, I'm going to have to put up plywood over my windows again and hope for the best. I got lucky with Matthew last year, but I don't want to gamble again.

In this case, it's much better to ask for forgiveness than permission IMO.

FUCK your HOA. Seriously, what can they really do?!

 

[maquiladora]

12z Euro ensembles

Pretty much a crapshoot after 5 days.

Looks like only about 10% miss the coast. The operational run doesn't have much support there.

 

[Kusagari]

Maybe they didn't order enough.

Nah, I talked to an employee. Sold more than 3,000 cases and that's after putting a 2-per-person limit.

 

[Strakt]

Looks like NJ is safe?

Hopefully doesnt hit anywhere

 

[zulux21]

Looks like NJ is safe?

Hopefully doesnt hit anywhere

it's to far out to call any place on the east cost safe right now.

 

[perfectchaos007]

There's also a system right behind Irma with a 60% chance of development. There's a chance that its energy will be swallowed up by Irma

 

[KenzinFive]

In this case, it's much better to ask for forgiveness than permission IMO.

FUCK your HOA. Seriously, what can they really do?!

Even if I ignored the HOA, I wouldn't be able to get the doors and glass installed in time for Irma.

 

[Jedi2016]

Sub-900mb? Wouldn't that make it one of the most powerful storms in history? Jesus.

And it's headed straight for my home town.

 

[Solidsnakejej]

Sub-900mb? Wouldn't that make it one of the most powerful storms in history? Jesus.

Pressure does not equal strength, good example of that was Sandy which had the pressure rating for a typical category 3 storm but Category 1 strength when it was close to New York.

Wilma had the lowest Atlantic storm at 882, Tip holds the record at 870.

 

[pulsemyne]

Pressure does not equal strength, good example of that was Sandy which had the pressure rating for a typical category 3 storm but Category 1 strength when it was close to New York.

Wilma had the lowest Atlantic storm at 882, Tip holds the record at 870.

It's not perfectly linked but it is a good way of judging a storms strength in general. I agree it's not a direct link to say the windspeed of a storm.
For example take 2015's Hurricane Patrica. That storm was a record breaker in some many ways. Coming in at 872MB and packing a sustained wind of 215 mph. However that windspeed is well in excess of Typhoon Tips 190mph and that has the lowest pressure recorded at 870.

 

[BattleMonkey]

In this case, it's much better to ask for forgiveness than permission IMO.

FUCK your HOA. Seriously, what can they really do?!

A lot of contractors will not start a permit without going though the HOA first for approval, as they dont want to waste time. City permits take money and often weeks to be returned, so they typically want a HOA clearance before they take any job.

 

[maquiladora]

18Z GFS getting very close to South Florida and once again with the crazy low pressure...

Very slow moving through Bahamas.

 

[Nydius]

Jesus, people are already panicking in South Florida.

All water gone from Sams.

I just got back from some minor grocery shopping at Yorktown, VA Walmart and they couldn't keep water stocked fast enough. When I got there, they were restocking and people were pulling cases off the pallet before the stocker could get them on the shelves. When I left, there was a line of people down the isle and around the next waiting for the poor employees to bring out new pallets of bottled water cases.

They weren't sold out yet but the way people were going at it, I imagine they'll be completely sold out by this evening. I've lived through a bunch of near-misses of varying degrees around here and this is the earliest I've seen this level of hysteria. Guessing Harvey has some people really shook.

 

[maquiladora]

Madness.

 

[mordecaii83]

Went to Costco, the store was packed and everyone had at least 2 cases of water in their carts. They were starting to get low, but still had a couple pallets left. Luckily we managed to get 3 cases. This is in the Brandon, FL area.

 

[Suikoguy]

Went to Costco, the store was packed and everyone had at least 2 cases of water in their carts. They were starting to get low, but still had a couple pallets left. Luckily we managed to get 3 cases. This is in the Brandon, FL area.

Wow, jumping the gun a little bit.

Better than the alternative though.

 

[AnythingBut]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/904457734963200001

1st recon pass, pressure of 958mb.

*bty, how do you link tweets to show content instead of just the link?*

 

[Princess Carl]

Madness.

ok, why does this model feel like the alex jones of models?

I mean that's ridiculously different from everything else, but it's present more than anything else.

 

[Dreadnought]

Please hit Georgia so class gets cancelled

 

[Vestal]

Please hit Georgia so class gets cancelled

I don't think you have the grasp of what a potential Category 4 hurricane can do if it hits land..

 

[Common Knowledge]

Please hit Georgia so class gets cancelled

I used to love when tropical waves or Cat 1 storms hit my area and we'd have off from school for a couple of days. I definitely wouldn't hope for a Cat 4 just for that, though ha ha.

 

[perfectchaos007]

I don't think you have the grasp of what a potential Category 4 hurricane can do if it hits land..

Yeah its not like a blizzard where classes get canceled because you're snowed in for a few days lol. A cat 5 could destroy your school.

 

[Dreadnought]

I used to love when tropical waves or Cat 1 storms hit my area and we'd have off from school for a couple of days. I definitely wouldn't hope for a Cat 4 just for that, though ha ha.

If it could just target my university that would be great. Specifically just the chemistry building

 

[EverythingShiny]

I just moved to NC this year and it's my first hurricane season. I've got a whole bunch of water - anything else I should stock up on? Those projections are making me a little nervous.

 

[Snkfanatic]

Please hit Georgia so class gets cancelled

I can't stand when people say shit like this. This is a storm that is capable of killing people and causing massive destruction.

 

[Griss]

Oh fuck it's coming right for us now. Thursday night or Friday morning. That's just 4 days away. Yesterday it looked like it would go north...

I've lived here in the Caribbean for over half my life and if we get a direct hit by a Cat 4 it would be my first. Fuck. Ike was a Cat 4 when it hit the nearby islands when I lived away and it fucking killed people here, man. Destroyed a hundred houses on an island of about 4,000 people.

*Go north* *Go north* *Go north* *Go north* *Go north*
Please you fucker go north!

I know all the americans on here are rightfully watching this storm and preparing, but we're at least two days ahead of you in the line of fire here - it's impossible to tell what'll happen for you guys - it's way too early. But for us shit is starting to get real.

I know it'll still be two days even for us before we really have a clear idea of it Irma will blow through the Lucayan archipelago (Bahamas + TCI) and if it was a lesser storm I wouldn't give a shit, but it just looks like it could be big.

Genuinely considering going to the shop right now to get water and supplies before people in offices around here start spreading the news tomorrow over work and there's a rush.

 

[Rodeo Clown]

I just moved to NC this year and it's my first hurricane season. I've got a whole bunch of water - anything else I should stock up on? Those projections are making me a little nervous.

Batteries, flashlights/lanterns, canned goods, a battery-powered radio, maybe a generator if you don't already have one.

 

[MechDX]

12z Euro ensembles

Pretty much a crapshoot after 5 days.

The track that goes the furthest west on this map would be disastrous for New Orleans

 

[maquiladora]

ok, why does this model feel like the alex jones of models?

I mean that's ridiculously different from everything else, but it's present more than anything else.

It's almost certainly overdoing the intensity. But not as much as this model.