II_JumPeR_I
Member
You hopefully know that MS pays this Devs and Publishers to have their games in the service???
It isnt hurting anyone...
It isnt hurting anyone...
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Game Pass is hurting day one software sales on Xbox could this push publishers & devs away from Xbox Scarlett or will they wait it out?
- Status
ethomaz
Banned
It is hard to make a conclusion yet but it looks that games being at launch on Gamepass hurts too potential revenue... perhaps Gamepass should try to be like Netflix and release games only after some months of release.
In any case let's try to make some maths with what we have:
The Other World guessed sales in UK: ~10-20k (using the UK ranking and estimating with previous weeks ranking).
Xbox The Other World UK sales: ~3k (I used about 15k sales for that)
Xbox games in UK usually do 30-40% of the sales... it is lower than PS4 version but it is way better than 22%.
Xbox The Other World missed UK sales: ~2k
Xbox The Other World missed Revenue: $120k
Let's say these missed sales are playing the game on Gamepass at average of $5 per month (I know it is $10 but there is so many $1 deal that is even hard to defense the $5).
Xbox The Other World generated Gamepass Revenue per month: $10k
So these 2k players that used the Gamepass to play The Other World needs to stay in the service paying $5 per month during 12 months (one year) to math the launch sales of the game without Gamepass.
That is one game.
If you have another launch games on Gamepass you will need in the same terms (low sales games) 2 years of Gamepass subscription to pay off... if you have the 3rd game launch in Gamepass in the year... and the number will only increase... you will never recover the missed revenue.
If we start to look in big seller games... well it will be a monstrous number of missed revenue.
At that point I don't believe Gamepass will ever pay the revenue lost but not having the game on Gamepass.
Launching game with Gamepass is a non go imo.
It is business suicide.
You do it only to cater more users to experience the service with one game sporadic but never for all first party games and never for 3rd party games.
In any case let's try to make some maths with what we have:
The Other World guessed sales in UK: ~10-20k (using the UK ranking and estimating with previous weeks ranking).
Xbox The Other World UK sales: ~3k (I used about 15k sales for that)
Xbox games in UK usually do 30-40% of the sales... it is lower than PS4 version but it is way better than 22%.
Xbox The Other World missed UK sales: ~2k
Xbox The Other World missed Revenue: $120k
Let's say these missed sales are playing the game on Gamepass at average of $5 per month (I know it is $10 but there is so many $1 deal that is even hard to defense the $5).
Xbox The Other World generated Gamepass Revenue per month: $10k
So these 2k players that used the Gamepass to play The Other World needs to stay in the service paying $5 per month during 12 months (one year) to math the launch sales of the game without Gamepass.
That is one game.
If you have another launch games on Gamepass you will need in the same terms (low sales games) 2 years of Gamepass subscription to pay off... if you have the 3rd game launch in Gamepass in the year... and the number will only increase... you will never recover the missed revenue.
If we start to look in big seller games... well it will be a monstrous number of missed revenue.
At that point I don't believe Gamepass will ever pay the revenue lost but not having the game on Gamepass.
Launching game with Gamepass is a non go imo.
It is business suicide.
You do it only to cater more users to experience the service with one game sporadic but never for all first party games and never for 3rd party games.
Last edited:
ethomaz
Banned
Because UK chart is only retail and that doesn't included PC (digital) sales.
Context of the article is important.
78% + 22% = 100% of the UK retail sales.
Last edited:
ethomaz
Banned
Let me guess...
Do you prefer to have a year of amazing gaming deals and after that collapse of the gaming industry over to have a grow and health gaming industry with more games for the next decade?
I will always choose the health industry for the future instead my "pro-consumer" deal for a year before collapse.
Last edited:
Explosive Zombie
Banned
I jumped to the end of the thread to get an idea of what happened here and there's some sort of argument about KFC chicken pricing going on???
Alexios
Cores, shaders and BIOS oh my!
That I clicked reply at that moment doesn't mean I hadn't seen the page earlier than that. Duh. But again I said "or I misread" and didn't insist or accuse you of doing anything like that in later posts. So I don't know why you're frustrated enough to go back to that point a day later. How does a back water dwelling poor guy like me leave such a lasting impression to you, lol. I guess not-broke people like you have a lot of free time on their hands. Enough to take screenshots when you can just say "the timestamps, man", lol ? In the very post you screenshot I said kFC isn't even popular or have much of a presence here now you want to put me down for eating KFC, lmao. I mean, first you put down back water countries that aren't the USA apparently, now you want to say anyone who goes to KFC is equally back water? That'd put plenty fellow Americans of yours in the same, er, bucket (ha!) so you basically just said the USA is back water by your own "logic"? Dang. But lol @ trying to put me or anyone else down for being "broke"or "poor" anyway. Keep digging.Yeah better cuts like KFC chicken.
You've pretty much revealed you're broke, there's no going back now.
Oh, and you know edits are timestamped and publicly visible right? No one's buying the "you must have edited your post, I don't know why I else I would mention KFC" excuse - you mentioned KFC because you are poor and that is where you go when you want wings.
Last edited:
Zog
Banned
Gamepass isn't going to make the industry collapse. Way to miss the point though, consumers should care about getting the best deal and not about how much money the corporations make. Things are quite unbalanced. Consider this, if people were getting a great deal on new Toyota's, they wouldn't be saying 'it's too consumer friendly, how will Toyota make enough money'. It's absurd the way some game consumers act.
How do we know no one gets hurt? I am not saying we know people are getting hurt to be clear. But do we know for a fact that no devs have bonuses tied to sales numbers that may get watered down due to subscriptions but not sales?
Silent Viper
Banned
MS is trillion dollar company. They can tale few hits
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
Did you really just lump the entirety of the industry into one games sales and try to say an entire service is business suicide because of your math which doesnt even account for how the sales of games actually works...
Right...
I'm gonna puke from how dizzy this thread makes me.
ethomaz
Banned
So how they will recover the revenue sales at launch with Gamepass for this game in UK? Explain how that Gamepass "magic" works please.
Denis Colovic
Member
I think market share and user acquisition is more important for Microsoft then actually making any profit in the long run or at all. PS4 sales are way way higher then xbox one sales. The Gamespass is a great way to get a better positioning in the market but also a great deal for players. Its just great value for your money. Mircrosoft after all is covering a lot of different markets. You still need windows to play Xbox Gamepass games on your pc or you need to own a xbox one. Overall I think game subscription models will get more traction and acceptance especially in the upcoming PS5/Xbox Scarlet era.
For smaller game studios and publishers the Gamepass also might be interesting and will even be more interesting as the userbase is probably growing day by day. Any potential pre-sale revenue is welcomed for studios and publishers. In any case game studios/publishers get paid upfront for their titles otherwise it wouldnt make sense. Every game that is launching in the gamepass also probably has different contracts and terms attached to it. So some games stay forever some only for a certain time. So the reason why we dont see a lot of third party AAA games launching on the gamepass is rather of simple nature: Day one digital and physical sales of most games are higher for many games if those games dont launch on Gamepass. So if gamepass grows further and it gains more acceptance and market share over time we will eventually see more AAA games on it. (even on day one)
I subbed to the xbox game pass after E3 and still am subbed to it. I think its a great deal so far. Even just those few first party titles make it worth to subscribe to it for an entire year. This plus the fact that new games are added every month is really cool. I would still rather buy physical console games just because i like it to see em getting dusty over time in the shelf they belong to. But yeah still, i like what mircorosft is doing here.
For smaller game studios and publishers the Gamepass also might be interesting and will even be more interesting as the userbase is probably growing day by day. Any potential pre-sale revenue is welcomed for studios and publishers. In any case game studios/publishers get paid upfront for their titles otherwise it wouldnt make sense. Every game that is launching in the gamepass also probably has different contracts and terms attached to it. So some games stay forever some only for a certain time. So the reason why we dont see a lot of third party AAA games launching on the gamepass is rather of simple nature: Day one digital and physical sales of most games are higher for many games if those games dont launch on Gamepass. So if gamepass grows further and it gains more acceptance and market share over time we will eventually see more AAA games on it. (even on day one)
I subbed to the xbox game pass after E3 and still am subbed to it. I think its a great deal so far. Even just those few first party titles make it worth to subscribe to it for an entire year. This plus the fact that new games are added every month is really cool. I would still rather buy physical console games just because i like it to see em getting dusty over time in the shelf they belong to. But yeah still, i like what mircorosft is doing here.
Last edited:
ResilientBanana
Member
That's essentially what leasing a car is. From what I can tell, the leasing program is pretty common and helps car companies stay afloat. RMR is huge in the Automotive world.
Last edited:
Gavin Stevens
Formerly 'o'dium'
The bottom line is this-
If Sony do it, it’s brave, wise and a smart move.
If MS do it, it’s stupid, they are doomed and it won’t make money.
And you can apply that to anything. Games, hardware, services... Anything.
Let’s not beat around the bush and let’s just call a spade a spade.
If Sony do it, it’s brave, wise and a smart move.
If MS do it, it’s stupid, they are doomed and it won’t make money.
And you can apply that to anything. Games, hardware, services... Anything.
Let’s not beat around the bush and let’s just call a spade a spade.
Zog
Banned
You mean leasing?
ethomaz
Banned
Do you have ideia how much per month cost that leasing car? C'mon.
$100 per month?
Last edited:
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
You want me to explain how your math which has absolutely no real facts is somehow indicative to how a service will be profitable?
A service like gamepass does not and will not even be sustainable if you base everything on one title.
Which is exactly why it's not only offered with one title.
ethomaz
Banned
I knew you have nothing to say.
More titles = more revenue lost that will never be recovered.
If you can't understand why Gamepass won't work having games launching in simultaneous with retail/digital then I can't do nothing for you.
Last edited:
ResilientBanana
Member
I lease 2 cars a Ford Edge for $350 and a Ford Fusion Hybrid for $350, each in a 36 month lease. But these cars are worth $20,000-$30,000 a piece. A game is worth $60, Gamepass is indeed sustainable for developers as Microsoft pays the developer based on the statistics of each games installs, hours played and so on.
Last edited:
pr0cs
Member
Comparing gamepass to Netflix is stupid, the business models are very different. Netflix is burning thru their war chest because they keep making shitty forgettable content and pushing their political bullshit on people just in case the content wasn't bad enough.
Gamepass content isn't actually created solely for the sake of rounding out their library but rather an augmentation of their software offerings.
When you start seeing shitty game titles that are ONLY on gamepass then you can compare the two
Gamepass content isn't actually created solely for the sake of rounding out their library but rather an augmentation of their software offerings.
When you start seeing shitty game titles that are ONLY on gamepass then you can compare the two
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
(Facepalm)
More titles does not equal more revenue lost. You can't boil everything down to your IMAGINARY NUMBERS.
Considering we don't have any numbers to what and or how these deals are structured, or how much a developer makes by adding their game to the service, your numbers mean fuck all.
Zog
Banned
So now you are stuck on this number that YOU came up with. Anyway, what is it that you fear? That corporations will not make enough money and you won't get any new games? Sounds pretty desperate to me. Remember, they are supposed to sell you the product, you aren't supposed to beg for it.
93xfan
Banned
Plus they buy years of it for cheap and all of the sudden the next Xbox seems like a good deal. Imagine not having to pay anything for Halo Infinite or the next Forza if you have game pass ultimate.
ethomaz
Banned
Do you meant $350 per month? Of course.
Ask Ford if they can lease you these 2 cars at way less that that per month.
Last edited:
ethomaz
Banned
We can use revenue... what developer will receive is a way lower fraction of that.
And yes.
A $60 retail game will generate absurd more revenue than the same gamer just playing it on Gamepass with a sub at $10 per month.
It is not even contestable that.
You people are crazy.
Like I said... the best case scenario you need to subscribe for 12 months in Gamepass to recover the revenue of a single retail game... if you get another games in that period then you need 24 months and you can go on.
Last edited:
ResilientBanana
Member
Of course.
ethomaz
Banned
Try to lease these cars at $100 there and see if they can hold the deal.
That is what Gamepass is doing.
And before you say the car costs more you need to remember that the Gamepass monthly cost give you more than one car.
In simple terms you need to stay with Gamepass to around 12 months to start to recover the revenue lose at launch.
If you have more games launching simultaneous the probability is that MS will never recover that revenue.
MS received way less, publisher receives way less, devs receives way less.
How do you sustain that type of business?
Last edited:
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
Then tell me the revenue that any developer made on gamepass. Go for it. You can't because it doesn't exist.
Not only is the $60 claim false considering not even close to $60 goes to a developer when they sell a game, but you also have no data to support how many people have converted a game from rent to buy with gamepass.
We "people" aren't crazy. We can simply look past the most basic details that you seem to be stuck on an unwilling to move from for whatever reason.
Denis Colovic
Member
I saw a lot of people writing similar things in this thread. Is there any source that Microsoft is paying for titles based on their performance? (MAU pure downloads) I am still almost certain they license titles for a fixed amount of funds. Sony does the same also with its PS+ free titles.
ResilientBanana
Member
That's not what they're doing, not even close. What you pay is based on what you put down as well as your credit. You must have never owned a car.. Not only that, but no one here has enough information to even fathom an educated guess. All I know is, I don't give two shits about how it's done, but for $15 a month I can play a shit-ton of games. If companies like Microsoft, Sony, Google, Netflix, Hulu, HBO, Showtime, etc can provide me solid content at a solid price per month, I'm fucking in. RMR wins every time.
Last edited:
ethomaz
Banned
You don't need to know because it is less than what the subs is... it is a small fraction of the sub.
It is impossible to be more than that.
You believe MS is giving money to devs lol
Last edited:
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
You have to be trolling at this point.
ethomaz
Banned
So you really believe MS pays for devs more than what they get with the subs? OMG if they do that to all devs that have games on Gamepass lol
Indeed a trillion dollars company making charity.
Last edited:
Denis Colovic
Member
Thats how subscription based models work. You license a production in this case its a game and then you get usage rights to distribute it to the end user. Again, is there any source to those assumptions? It seems as every 3 post is saying the same thing without actually any proof or source.
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
At the moment thats EXACTLY what they are doing. They are building a service that requires content and they are getting that content by cutting deals for games. And they arent going to do that for all devs because they are going to hand pick the content they want and get the deals they want.
ResilientBanana
Member
This makes sense.
ethomaz
Banned
So my first post said it is unsustainable.
Read it please.
Last edited:
Denis Colovic
Member
Its a case to case scenario. It depends on the production scope and scale of a project. If you wanna ship a AAA title on gamepass I highly doubt that you can even recoup the lost revenue from Digital sales and retail sailes. If you are Not AAA there is a chance you either recope or in some cases even break even. Everything is possible.
Last edited:
ethomaz
Banned
You have a example (that is what the thread is based).
Even for small titles with low sales you can't recover the revenue lost... a drop in 20% of launch sales is abysmal for either small or big AAA title.
I understand MS is doing a test to see how it works but it is unsustainable... they will probably stop to release games on Gamepass simultaneos with Retail/Digital launch.
But let's play that game.
How many games do you believe MS can give always from retail sales per year on Gamepass?
Last edited:
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
I read your first post but its simply wrong. As the service evolves so do the subscribers. THats the whole point. At some point the amount of subscribers will cover the price of the operating costs and then everything past that is revenue.
Now im not saying the price of gamepass will not go up. It most certainly will in time as the value of the product is seen, but to say its unsustainable is simply untrue. There is a very clear path to profits.
Lort
Banned
Contrast this with the “successful” PSNow that absolutly noone cares about and is having zero effect on the industry.
Developers care about income not sales ... Many devs say they earned more from gamepass than they would have elsewise ( abit like launching on the Epic store)... also Netflix did not kill content creators .. it just changed the industry to be being about exclusive content FOR subscriptions ... which is exactly what Sony and EA are doing.
ethomaz
Banned
It is unsustainable and I explained in the first post.
I even go more depth saying they will probably needs to move away from releasing on Gamepass simultaneous to Retail/Digital launch and now you give a another example they will need to ask more for Gamepass.
Gamepass actually has not much difference from how PS Plus of Games for Gold works... the main differences that makes these last two works is that the price is way higher and the games are not simultaneous released with retail/digital... everybody that will buy the game at launch will buy it and after they can put it on Plus or Games for Gold to make it more accessible or create hype for sequels.
Now what Gamepass do is to steal sales from retail/digital launch without getting the revenue back.
That won't work.
The premisse of the thread is true.
Last edited:
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
It is sustainable. I already laid it out. SUbscribers is how it become sustainable.
Are you really saying that if Microsoft has 15 million subscribers they wont be sustainable?
You also mistake sales for potential sales.
A sale of a game is not in any means a given.
phil_t98
#SonyToo
Netflix make their own movies and release them on day one on Netflix? What’s your point
Last edited:
Denis Colovic
Member
A loss in revenue would mean that the person responsible for doing that "forecast" did a bad job. You can definetly estimate your minimum sales and you can also estiamte how many sales you would loose if you would ship the game on gamepass. If you take this as a base you can clrealy estimate how much any platform needs to give you to recoupe the "loss". Also the most important thing: Visibility.
If your game is on gamepass whether on PC or even on xbox your game is on the new release tab somewhere. So in theory people that dont even have the gamepass at all maybe can find out about your game or they read about it somewhere in a news section covering gamepass games. So in this matter: Gamepass can even drive sales. Or create sales where before there was none. Again its all a case to case scenario. There is probably tons of cases where a gamepass launch simply will not work. But as with all things in life: Some things are really simple and some are more complex. I just see a problem of generalizing a topic like this.
In fact: maybe there is people that dont even enjoy a single game on the gamepass. Whats with those poeple? Well its a bad deal for them in that case I guess.
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
You edited your post after i replied...
The bolded is where you are mistaken. The revenue isnt gone in a black hole somewhere. Devs are paid for the content. You're mistaking a sale of a game as certain. Gamepass is simply a guaranteed amount of income vs potential income.
Lets say you have a game that cost $10 to make.
For the sake of this scenario we will say Gamepass is $1.
Microsoft comes to you and says hey we want to put Game X on the service. We will pay you $7.
Originally you needed $11 to make a profit, but now you only need $4. DO you take the money or do you say well we think we can make more without it. Thats up to you. And thats how the deals are structured.
And for Microsoft to be profitable they need only $8. They only have $5 from subscribers now, but they are betting on yoor content bringing in more subscribers. If they can get 4 more subscribers then they are in the black.
I cant break it down any more than this. If you cant see how this isn't profitable theres nothing that will.
Edited for spelling.
Last edited:
- Status