PS4 has 110 million sales
Switch has 55m
xbox was something like 50m?
Total 215 million sales.
Last generation
PS3 90m
Xbox 360 90m
3DS + Wii-U = 90m ( this was a massive failure by the way )
total 270m sales.
PS2 = 150m
Wii + DS = 250m
xbox 24m
Total 424m sales. ( not including the psp )
Seems to me it shrinks, and even if the numbers would be a bit higher its still a far cry with the player base expanding like hell, through the years.
I am not shocked they all move into different markets ( like PC ), and go into subscriptions fee's and try to dig out more money from there current player base with all kinds of ways to get you to spend. This probably will continue next generation. because that's what mostly happens when new players are not to be found.
And frankly with kids playing fornite 350m on there mobile probably, not owning handhelds anymore and paywalls everywhere like online play on consoles. It will not help new players to join. Specially when those boxes PS5 and SX will cost 500 bucks that many here hope lol.
Consoles are your typical mmo, first everything is great as new players all joining in fast amounts ( PS2 ). Then new players aren't coming in anymore ( PS3). Paywall are producted to dig money out of there current player base ( PS4 ) which drains all the remaining new players. and down it goes.
It always makes me laugh when people shit on lockheart or any other cheaper alternative box. In my view both xbox and ps5 are way over engineered / priced to the point it will alienate ( price / pawalls ) new consumers and make it even for there current consumers expensive through not having enough space to store game data on ( rip digital and hello installation times). ( and then people want EU5 textures in a PS5 game, yea good luck storing that )
People have unrealistic expectations and frankly multiplatform efforts will increase and increase until the point both xbox and playstation are nothing but services. Xbox is already moving there.
As an be seen in yearly reports from Newzoo, Nielsen, Superdata, ESA, etc, the combined revenue of console gaming market has been growing year after year since more than a decade or two ago, as happened with the entire gaming market, where console is not even the half of that market. The majority of the market in amount of users or revenue is mobiles + tablets (which also has a bigger growth than console market). The majority of the market on user count and revenue is F2P (which also has a bigger growth than paid games or subs. services). The majority of the market is Asia (which also has a bigger growth than the west).
You are comparing a generation that is far from its end to two already completed generations, the two best selling ones in gaming history. And you are only comparing console sales, when the revenue comes mostly from games (and now services). The shrinking that you mention is a big portion of the handheld casual market that moved from portables to mobile and tablets. In any case, Switch will end selling more than WiiU+3DS+Vita at the end of its lifetime. And if we look at revenue from consoles+games+accesories (remember, PSVR)+gaming services, consoles market is generating more revenue than ever.
PS4 still has some dozens of million units to sell (they continue selling games and consoles for over 10 years after launch, don't stop when the next one is released), and Switch is not even in the half of its lifetime. In case of PS4 and XBO, being BC they will be cheaper SKU and will continue getting crossgen games for longer than in previous generations, which means they will continue selling, and there's extra revenue sources like games or services. Aligning launches both PS4 and Switch, both console sales numbers are on track repeating until now the PS2 numbers, which ended selling 150M+. The last XBO sales number estimation I remember was 55M several months ago.
You're being generous. I say there's no chance in hell that will happen!
PS4 is setting new records in some cases and in other ones is performing like PS2 on that same lifetime point.
PS5 will start in a better brand position than PS4 started, and the PS5 video and social numbers KPIs point to a record demand than ever before.
So seems that PS5 will perform better than PS4, and that like PS4 will end selling way more than 120M at the end of its lifetime.
But I doubt that it will be to the point that PS5 may achieve 120M in 5 years. I think it will reach 120M in 6 or 7 years.