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[Ronin_7]

PS5 still losing further ground against PS4 and that won't chance until the March quarter in 2023.




What about the Playstation Plus numbers? Don't the include the migrated PS Now users now?
That seems very low.

It's not low, Gamers are rejecting subscription services altogether.

The old way Will remain King alongside F2P, Subscription model is flopping harder then i expected.

Top Reasons:

1. People are already subscribing to too much SHIT like Netflix or Disney.
2. Gaming F2P is easily accessible, no need to spend money when biggest games are F2P.
3. The services apart from Basic Plus are too expensive for most people, again see point 1.

Conclusion: Expect Subscription model to keep flopping & F2P to keep printing €€€ in the long run.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Because it has hundreds of games including a lot of great ones and now most of them (all except the streamed PS3 ones) are available worldwide for download unlike before, because PS Now was limited to a dozen countries or so and now PS Plus Extra or Deluxe are available worldwide (or almost).

People subscribe to play new games and back catalog is an additive thing. Like "oh, I will play COD but I haven't played other COD games so I will try them". That's why Day 1 and new releases are important.

You play new games in a subscription service - and then try other games that you haven't played before. And you might want to buy them later. Or even buy the next game Day 1 too.

 

[ergem]

Conclusion: Expect Subscription model to keep flopping & F2P to keep printing €€€ in the long run.

IMO, all-you-can-play subscriptions like gamepass and PS+ Premium will have a comfortable place enough to be profitable even factoring the potential loss in sales of individual games. But I agree with you, F2P is and will continue to be the bigger business.

 

[gokurho]

PS5 still losing further ground against PS4 and that won't chance until the March quarter in 2023.




What about the Playstation Plus numbers? Don't the include the migrated PS Now users now?
That seems very low.

 

[prinz_valium]

True, but when PS4 shipped 8.4 million units during the holiday season, Sony didn't produce 9 million PS4 during that quarter.
There was prep-up supply, too.

So far October didn't see any material uptick over September. It all comes down to November and December.
3.5m units are needed per month just to match the equivalent PS4 shipments.


Anyways, I easily bet $1k that Sony will not ship 8.5m units this holiday season.

 

[DenchDeckard]

They need to ship 8.5 million units over Xmas? Holy shit, how?

Good luck Sony.

 

[PeteBull]

They need to ship 8.5 million units over Xmas? Holy shit, how?

Good luck Sony.

We will see how it goes, back in its 2nd year sony shipped over 8mil ps4 units too, wont be ez cos ps5 is definitely more advanced/expensive to produce in end of 2022 vs ps4 in end of 2014.

 

[NickFire]

I want to know how much of the 17.5 hours to sell 100k in September was spent setting up the sale portals, and how long it takes once they are live to sell available stock.

 

[Elios83]

They need to ship 8.5 million units over Xmas? Holy shit, how?

Good luck Sony.

They don't need luck.
Over 3.2m units have been already stockpiled at the end of September besides those that were actually shipped in the quarter (3.3m).
And if in a single quarter (July-September) they managed to manufacture 6.5m units it's easy math.
They have the manufacturing capability to do that. It's just a matter of how much they want to spend to get them quickly in stores.
In November and December we'll see a flood of consoles.

 

[lh032]

I believed Sony is going to produce even more PS5 for the remaining months.
Dont forget the supply issue is just getting better for Sony.

If nothing bad happens on the supply chain, assuming if Sony does not hit their target , they will still sell alot more PS5.

 

[reksveks]

Sony should be able to hit 18m but October feels a bit ehh. Will find out out next week if that feeling is accurate .

 

[Bonfires Down]

It gets increasingly less meaningful to have a subscription when most major online games are F2P. Hopefully online paywalls die a violent death.

They need to ship 8.5 million units over Xmas? Holy shit, how?

Good luck Sony.

They have 3 mil in stock. They produced 6.5 mil last quarter. Only way they don't hit the target is if they can't ship it fast enough by sea.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Any updates on software sales or is all the info over? Did no one have the option to ask questions on cost to manufacture ps5s or what's the unit sales on big titles?

I feel the info is quite lackluster, or is there still more to come?

 

[GhostOfTsu]

Any updates on software sales or is all the info over? Did no one have the option to ask questions on cost to manufacture ps5s or what's the unit sales on big titles?

I feel the info is quite lackluster, or is there still more to come?

I know you have this weird obsession with Sony $70 first-party sales but Modern Warfare II just broke all kinds of records with their $70 game. Sales are fine.

You can go share your concern for $70 games in that thread.

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/barrons-modern-warfare-ii-is-the-fastest-selling-cod-ever-passing-600-million-in-sales-over-opening-weekend.1644343/

 

[DenchDeckard]

I know you have this weird obsession with Sony $70 first-party sales but Modern Warfare II just broke all kinds of records with their $70 game. Sales are fine.

You can go share your concern for $70 games in that thread.

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/barrons-modern-warfare-ii-is-the-fastest-selling-cod-ever-passing-600-million-in-sales-over-opening-weekend.1644343/

So, how is sonys first party IPs doing this gen on ps5? Are Sony sharing that data and are people asking for numbers?I thought Sony used to share data on their first party stuff on these calls?

Cod is a completely different beast to any other game.

 

[jroc74]

Thanks for the thread R reksveks

 

[Luminoth-4545]

They don't need luck.
Over 3.2m units have been already stockpiled at the end of September besides those that were actually shipped in the quarter (3.3m).
And if in a single quarter (July-September) they managed to manufacture 6.5m units it's easy math.
They have the manufacturing capability to do that. It's just a matter of how much they want to spend to get them quickly in stores.
In November and December we'll see a flood of consoles.

So they can manufacture 6.5 million from October to December plus the 3.2 million they stockpiled so 9.7 million is possible?

 

[nowhat]

So, how is sonys first party IPs doing this gen on ps5? Are Sony sharing that data and are people asking for numbers?I thought Sony used to share data on their first party stuff on these calls?

Not really. More often than not you'll find a tweet/blog post/press release stating that $GAME has reached $MILESTONE. The investors are not really that invested (hah!) in how a particular game is doing.

 

[Ghost of Caelid]

Doesn’t seem like the ps plus overhaul really did anything for their numbers. It fell 2m actually…i don’t see sony continuing to highly invest in that service like they have been

It was only made to keep them agile. Subscription future is inevitable. Better to have it ready to go than not. But I doubt well ever see games like Plauges tale going there day one.

 

[Ghost of Caelid]

Sony said in the call that they are getting enough chips and plan to exceed the 18M target for this FY. For the next FY they have a 23M target.


A few minutes ago was 24.53M

And a few minutes before that they had 24.46M:

Since Sony updated their numbers they are slowly correcting their number.

Is the x/s really that close to ps5 this generation? Genuinely shocking. Thought that gap would be closer to 10 already.

 

[Elios83]

So they can manufacture 6.5 million from October to December plus the 3.2 million they stockpiled so 9.7 million is possible?

That is the potential peak number of consoles they could manufacture at current rate but you need to factor that shipment takes time, so unless they want to spend a lot of money with air shipping the units manufactured during the last week or two of December won't make it in time to stores.
But 8-8.5m seems a good bet. They will continue to have strong sales in Q1 2023 as well, the target is for the FY.

 

[Elios83]

Is the x/s really that close to ps5 this generation? Genuinely shocking. Thought that gap would be closer to 10 already.

Those are just vgchart guesses.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

Jesus add-on content beat out of digital sales. There is no denying it. People love mtx

I much prefer MTX let me buy what I want, make a cool skin I will buy it

But then again I have self control and don't buy everything in the shop

 

[DenchDeckard]

Not really. More often than not you'll find a tweet/blog post/press release stating that $GAME has reached $MILESTONE. The investors are not really that invested (hah!) in how a particular game is doing.

Has there been any updates on milestones since the ps5 launched? I feel like we haven't had an update on ps5 software sales and its been out 2 years now.

 

[Ghost of Caelid]

Those are just vgchart guesses.

We know ps5 is at 25, wonder what the xbox is currently at. guessing its not far off from estimate.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Sales had a positive impact from foreign exchange rates, yet Operating Income had a negative effect from foreign exchange?

 

[Zok310]

Doesn’t seem like the ps plus overhaul really did anything for their numbers. It fell 2m actually…i don’t see sony continuing to highly invest in that service like they have been

They effectively raised the price and shocker, subs fell. Dont over look the fact that ps* revenue increased a fucktonn for q2.

 

[DeepEnigma]

We know ps5 is at 25, wonder what the xbox is currently at. guessing its not far off from estimate.

Well, MS were claiming they were at 13m to the CMA.

 

[Mr Moose]

What? what am I getting wrong here, there is no way this counts for Horizon 2 and GT7?

This is for the 3 months ending September 30th, those games didn't release during that time, they were released during Q4 2021.

 

[Bragr]

This is for the 3 months ending September 30th, those games didn't release during that time, they were released during Q4 2021.

But it's ALL first-party titles, across PC and Playstation? that can't be right. They must have had an incredibly weak quarter then, software-wise.

 

[remember_spinal]

Well, MS were claiming they were at 13m to the CMA.

They are prob around 15

 

[pasterpl]

Sales had a positive impact from foreign exchange rates, yet Operating Income had a negative effect from foreign exchange?

Sony hikes FY profit forecast by 4.5% on foreign exchange boost

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sony...kXPkgY6mNGEqMIXbNYTdZwEO6Fwha0v8fEw8XUMjufrcE


Couple interesting numbers from this summary;

Sony gaming business recorded a 49% fall in second quarter profit…trimmed its full-year profit forecast for the games business by 12%.

 

[sachos]

37% Games sold were Physical, nice.

 

[yurinka]

Is the x/s really that close to ps5 this generation? Genuinely shocking. Thought that gap would be closer to 10 already.

VGChartz numbers are only fanboy guesses. Since many years ago their Xbox numbers are too high and the PS ones too low. Sometimes they corrected them once the company reveal the proper numbers, sometimes don't.

 

[yurinka]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sony...kXPkgY6mNGEqMIXbNYTdZwEO6Fwha0v8fEw8XUMjufrcE


Couple interesting numbers from this summary;

Part of the profit decrease of the gaming division is because this quarter they had 61 billion yen/$412.5M on acquisition (Bungie etc.) related costs.

Without these acquisitions costs the game division would have had 103.1 billion yen ($696.1M) profit, and had 82.7 billion yen last year. So operative income (profits) of the game division would have been 24.7% up YoY this quarter without the acquisition costs.

Their gaming division is their division with the biggest ROI (41.9% this quarter).

But it's ALL first-party titles, across PC and Playstation? that can't be right. They must have had an incredibly weak quarter then, software-wise.

No, it's only PS. Their Q2 number is in line with other summer/Q2 quarters where they don't have any important release.

Their PC ports sales are reported separatedly as part of these "others":

The Physical Software, Digital Software and Add-On Content are PS only.

 

[reksveks]

Without these acquisitions costs the game division would have had 103.1 billion yen ($696.1M) profit, and had 82.7 billion yen last year. So operative income (profits) of the game division would have been 24.7% up YoY this quarter without the acquisition costs.

The Bungie cost is for the FY forecast and not the previous quarter report. There will be some cost there but its ain't 61bln yen.

 

[yurinka]

The Bungie cost is for the FY forecast and not the previous quarter report. There will be some cost there but its ain't 61bln yen.

No. Read again both the images I linked:

The one with brown bars says that for this quarters one of the main things that the negatively impacted the operative income (profits) of their gaming division is: "Recording of expenses associated with acquisitions, including Bungie Inc".

The cost has been included for this Q2 (brown bars page) and also considered for/included in the revised forecast (the other page).

 

[StealthGoblin]

This looks interesting to me:

Number of subs have dropped but money gained from subs has hugely increased. This tells us that Sony must have decent success with converting people to extra and premium.

Their pivot to go for GAAS and Mobile games alongside their AAA single player games looks like it could be a bold and profitable move.

 

[reksveks]

No. Read again both the images I linked:

The one with brown bars says that for this quarters one of the main things that the negatively impacted the operative income (profits) of their gaming division is: "Recording of expenses associated with acquisitions, including Bungie Inc".

The cost has been included for this Q2 (brown bars page) and also considered for/included in the revised forecast (the other page).

The November forecast. The only major expense due to Bungie's is the 17.4bn highlighted.

 

[reksveks]

This looks interesting to me:

Number of subs have dropped but money gained from subs has hugely increased. This tells us that Sony must have decent success with converting people to extra and premium.

Their pivot to go for GAAS and Mobile games alongside their AAA single player games looks like it could be a bold and profitable move.

The issue is figuring the fx impact on network revenue

 

[Fredrik]

Nice stock spike! If I’m still plus when the market opens I’ll sell some and use the money for Ragnarök

Edit Done!

 

[{insert code here}]

Doesn’t seem like the ps plus overhaul really did anything for their numbers. It fell 2m actually…i don’t see sony continuing to highly invest in that service like they have been

Unpopular opinion (probably) but it was a halfass overhaul and the results so far speak for themselves.

I halfway expect them to turn it around though. IIRC PS+ itself came out the gate limping and it took them a year or so to figure out what to do with it.

 

[El Pistolero]

Is the x/s really that close to ps5 this generation? Genuinely shocking. Thought that gap would be closer to 10 already.

Don't worry, it will widen per your wishes in 3 months time.

 

[yurinka]

The November forecast. The only major expense due to Bungie's is the 17.4bn highlighted.

Edit: Just saw the little note in the bottom of the page, you're right. I didn't see the little note in the bottom mentioning the 17.4B yen for the acquisitions closed during H1 (Bungie, Haven...).

But if 61B is for the whole FY and 17.4B for H1, then it means they may close acquisitions for an amount way bigger than the Bungie+Haven ones because there's 43.6B yen left for H2. They may left it there just in case, but I assume that if they save that amount of money it's because they have something.

But seems that Sony saved money there to close acquisitions for maybe up to $7B-$10B during the second half of this FY, around 2.5x the amount of money spent on acquisitions closed during H1 (Bungie, Haven, Savage Games etc). Which means they should announce this/these acquisition/s very soon.

 

[yurinka]

People subscribe to play new games and back catalog is an additive thing. Like "oh, I will play COD but I haven't played other COD games so I will try them". That's why Day 1 and new releases are important.

You play new games in a subscription service - and then try other games that you haven't played before. And you might want to buy them later. Or even buy the next game Day 1 too.

If people subscribe to play new games and not to play old games, then why PS Plus has twice the game subs than GP specially without giving away free months and $1 deals?

Maybe they are subscribed because they like the games and don't care that much if they are old or not.

Maybe game subs are a tiny portion of the gaming market (not even 20% for Sony and MS) and players buy the main games they want to play since they aren't included in the game subs, so they have the game subs as a secondary thing.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

If people subscribe to play new games and not to play old games, then why PS Plus has twice the game subs than GP specially without giving away free months and $1 deals?

Because PS+ is necessary to play online games like COD no? Xbox Live Gold was just as big as PS+. GP is an independent service and a lot of people on Xbox still use Gold. Gold + GP will have a comparable numbers to PS+. Probably more in the past even as Gold was necessary for F2P games.

 

[yurinka]

Because PS+ is necessary to play online games like COD no? Xbox Live Gold was just as big as PS+. GP is an independent service and a lot of people on Xbox still use Gold. Gold + GP will have a comparable numbers to PS+. Probably more in the past even as Gold was necessary for F2P games.

Around 90% of the PS MAU don't buy CoD, many super popular F2P games don't require Plus to play online, most players don't play online multiplayer and according to Sony survey the main reason to subscribe to PS Plus (before the merge) was the monthly games. In fact, PS Plus existed during many years before requiring Plus to play online.

And Gold is included in Game Pass Ultimate, you must be dumb to have Gold and don't upgrade for $1. Maybe there are 4 person with Gold who didn't upgrade to GPU.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

If people subscribe to play new games and not to play old games, then why PS Plus has twice the game subs than GP specially without giving away free months and $1 deals?

Maybe they are subscribed because they like the games and don't care that much if they are old or not.

Maybe game subs are a tiny portion of the gaming market (not even 20% for Sony and MS) and players buy the main games they want to play since they aren't included in the game subs, so they have the game subs as a secondary thing.

GP is at 25M. And that doesn't even include Xbox gamers just doing regular Gold. Xbox is likely in the 30+M range. PS+ subs are at 45M.

Sony has over twice the user base. PS4 was 120M, Xbox One I think around 50-55M. PS5 is also leading over Series S/X. So added up, PS has well over double the user base yet the sub plans for PS is maybe 1.5x tops. PS gamers less interested in sub plans as the value isn't worth it.

Just to show the extra tiers of PS sub plans are shunned by gamers, PS Now in 8 years only had about 4M subs across 120M consoles while GP has 25M across half the consoles in 5 years. PS Now topped out at 3.2M in 2021 (the last stated count by Sony after 7 years of service). It'd be lucky to hit 4M after one more year. It likely ended around 3.5M tops as gamers were waiting to see the new sub tiers in 2022.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

And Gold is included in Game Pass Ultimate, you must be dumb to have Gold and don't upgrade for $1. Maybe there are 4 person with Gold who didn't upgrade to GPU.

Some people just use Gold and don't upgrade to GPU. Simple as that. It has nothing to do with being dumb.

Around 90% of the PS MAU don't buy CoD, many super popular F2P games don't require Plus to play online, most players don't play online multiplayer and according to Sony survey the main reason to subscribe to PS Plus (before the merge) was the monthly games. In fact, PS Plus existed during many years before requiring Plus to play online.

Newsflash - there are more multiplayer games than just COD. Like for example GTA Online...Or FIFA. The point is that a lot of (if not the most) of PS+ MAU are people who are playing online games.
And don't forget that PS+ also provides cloud saves so people might subscribe to have cloud saves for example.

Also COD represented 5% of revenue of Sony. That's a lot for "90% people are not buying COD"

 

[MikeM]

Wow their margin appears thin at less than 6%. Are they taking additional hits from acquisitions?