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Matt Piscartolla: Subscriptions services stalling but big games exploding, interesting weeks ahead
- Thread starter GigaBowser
- Start date
- Business Analysis Sales-Age
ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
Well, here’s a reason why MS stopped reporting GP numbers 10+ months ago.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
Every company should double down on just making great games
Subs, GaaS, MTX…all a distraction from what matters
Subs, GaaS, MTX…all a distraction from what matters
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THE DUCK
voted poster of the decade by bots
Not everything is a console war. Dial back your insecurities.
Ya, ok, lol. 2%, such a massive decrease, and could early be Sony for doing silly things like pulling first parry games from the service.
THE DUCK
voted poster of the decade by bots
I would agree on great games, however I would rather get more value from my dollar, so hard pass on eliminating subs. I easily get twice as many games for the same price and get to try ones I would not have.
Raven117
Member
It is…. Unless you knock one out of the park.
ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
It indicates that the subscription market has plateaued, no need to bring Sony here. Sony specifically stated multiple times that they’ve reached the limit of paid PS+ customers and additional tiers are here to increase revenue per user, not the number of users.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
I get more value for my dollar on playing great games than eating at the equivalent of an all you can eat Chinese buffet
It was a 2% increase and I don't buy what Matt is saying. When some actual good games hit you can still increase PC subscriptions. He will be singing a different tune soon enough.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
THE DUCK
voted poster of the decade by bots
We both play great games, I just pay less overall per game. (assuming we both "eat" a lot of games)
I also generally don't have a lot of time to replay games, so that's in my favor. That and I will still strategically buy games on sale later on, even sometimes 2 or 3 years later but at 20% of the cost or less.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
None of the games I generally want to play are day and date on a sub service. There are exceptions, but the real biggest and best titles the industry has to offer typically are not
Sub services have a place for experimental stuff I wouldn’t otherwise buy, but that’s not really my thing
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demigod
Member
What great games did you play on subscription this year that’s even on par with RE4 remake, hogwarts, star wars jedi, zelda or diablo?
GigaBowser
The bear of bad news
James Sawyer Ford
Member
Only standout to me is Hi Fi Rush which was a good game but not on those other title’s level. Not even close
I would have loved for it to have been a more expansive game and would have gladly paid $70 for it like those others
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THE DUCK
voted poster of the decade by bots
Indeed this year has been weaker than most, however there is a bunch of stuff on both PS5 and Series X that I fell behind on, so there was still lots for me.
This fall should be stronger for sure, Forza and Starfield alone will justify the gamepass sub for the whole year. While I'm playing those I'll probably fall behind on some other stuff........still haven't played zelda.......
Diablo I'll just wait for the Activision deal to close......I didn't play the last one for like 7 years after it came out.......
Star wars Jedi will likely be on gamepass in 6 months, I'll buy RE4 for $20 this fall.
Nydius
Member
The problems with subscription services are two-fold, as has been made clear by video streaming platforms:
First, there's a finite amount of people who want them. Once everyone who wants a subscription has one, the revenue changes from driving new subs to trying to retain existing ones or minimizing user 'churn' (user's subscribing for a while, while others drop off for a while). That's why you see companies like Netflix taking aggressive stances on things like password sharing now. They used to be fine with it, but now they're cracking down in the hopes that it drives new subs from the people currently 'sharing' accounts. Bear in mind that video streaming services are platform agnostic whereas game streaming services are platform dependent, so Game Pass and PS+ will hit the ceiling much faster than video services.
Second, subscription services end up in an arms race to provide content to keep subscribers "engaged". Like subscribers, there's a finite well of material that can be put on the subscription service. This ultimately ends up leading to a system of quantity over quality. Again, with video streaming we see this with the sheer number of projects being greenlit only to be canceled part way through, or only after one, season. It's already happening on game streaming services as well -- most notably Game Pass, since it's the older of the two. This push for constant content is how we end up with stinkers like Redfall. Had Redfall needed to survive solely on sales, I doubt it would have launched in the state we got it. But sales were a secondary thought -- using a big, hyped, first party title to drive engagement for Game Pass subscribers was more important than the quality of the title itself.
How did I know this was going to be your response?
Continuing to prove the point as to why software sales on Xbox is abysmal compared to PlayStation.
Because Xbox fans expect everything to show up on Game Pass or they simply won't bother.
Game Pass has fundamentally warped Xbox fans' brains into not buying games.
And then they wonder why output is dismal.
First, there's a finite amount of people who want them. Once everyone who wants a subscription has one, the revenue changes from driving new subs to trying to retain existing ones or minimizing user 'churn' (user's subscribing for a while, while others drop off for a while). That's why you see companies like Netflix taking aggressive stances on things like password sharing now. They used to be fine with it, but now they're cracking down in the hopes that it drives new subs from the people currently 'sharing' accounts. Bear in mind that video streaming services are platform agnostic whereas game streaming services are platform dependent, so Game Pass and PS+ will hit the ceiling much faster than video services.
Second, subscription services end up in an arms race to provide content to keep subscribers "engaged". Like subscribers, there's a finite well of material that can be put on the subscription service. This ultimately ends up leading to a system of quantity over quality. Again, with video streaming we see this with the sheer number of projects being greenlit only to be canceled part way through, or only after one, season. It's already happening on game streaming services as well -- most notably Game Pass, since it's the older of the two. This push for constant content is how we end up with stinkers like Redfall. Had Redfall needed to survive solely on sales, I doubt it would have launched in the state we got it. But sales were a secondary thought -- using a big, hyped, first party title to drive engagement for Game Pass subscribers was more important than the quality of the title itself.
How did I know this was going to be your response?
Continuing to prove the point as to why software sales on Xbox is abysmal compared to PlayStation.
Because Xbox fans expect everything to show up on Game Pass or they simply won't bother.
Game Pass has fundamentally warped Xbox fans' brains into not buying games.
And then they wonder why output is dismal.
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Cyberpunkd
Member
It indicates the market is at its maximum, whereas business expectation were multiples of that. Let’s not forget GP strategy was Microsoft’s bet against Sony’s, now look at the number of consoles sold vs. PlayStation at the top of the market.
Link the two for me, if it was just about quantity, they would just release the project? Video streaming service cancel shows after one season cause of engagement numbers but that's a slightly different topic to subscriptions services. Some services are cancelling before the show release cause its a nice way to reduce taxes.
The analogy to video streaming service is a questionable one to me anyways, I have always said its more like Prime.
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Nydius
Member
What are you confused about?
Subscription services have to constantly offer content to keep people interested and subscribed. But there's only so much content available to them, and only so many projects they have going at any given time. So even if they know projects are likely crap, they throw them on the platform and hope they stick because it's better than not having anything to put on it at all, which is a guaranteed loss of subscribers.
Video streaming services greenlight all kinds of projects because they need a constant stream of content for people to feel they're getting value out of their subscription. We're already seeing the exact same issue play out with game subscription services.
Edit re: your edit:
How the fuck is it "more like Prime"? I'm not subscribing to Game Pass Ultimate because I get discounts on games. Or free shipping. Or access to a monthly set of free Kindle books. The entire sales pitch for Game Pass and PS+ is access to games. That makes it 100% analogous to video streaming services, not a multi-faceted shopping service where video is only part of the equation.
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bluecowboys
Banned
Yeah, less AAA games compare to previous generations or even last year. Same reason why Elden ring sales exploded last year and outdid previous soul games by a lot. It was the only good AAA third party game for almost half the year in 2022.
The price hike from 60 to 70 still slow down sales as common sense will tell you. Lower price = more sales, it is basic economics after all. Which is a contributing factor on why FF16 pre orders are low currently. Hopefully the game scores well on metacritic to gain more sales. If not, RIP square enix as FF is their biggest franchise and pretty much the only franchise keeping square relevant (maybe DQ).
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But you said that they are cancelling alot of projects, if all you, as a platform holder, need, is content then you wouldnt cancel them.
The thing that they need is engaging content.
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Was refer to MS more so but you as a prime subscriber are getting free content. You may not be signing up for the discount or the free mtx that they give out, that's true.
For MS, it's a revenue stream/service to try and increase engagement on the platform and then they want to make the money back on MS store transactions.
THE DUCK
voted poster of the decade by bots
The problems with subscription services are two-fold, as has been made clear by video streaming platforms:
First, there's a finite amount of people who want them. Once everyone who wants a subscription has one, the revenue changes from driving new subs to trying to retain existing ones or minimizing user 'churn' (user's subscribing for a while, while others drop off for a while). That's why you see companies like Netflix taking aggressive stances on things like password sharing now. They used to be fine with it, but now they're cracking down in the hopes that it drives new subs from the people currently 'sharing' accounts. Bear in mind that video streaming services are platform agnostic whereas game streaming services are platform dependent, so Game Pass and PS+ will hit the ceiling much faster than video services.
Second, subscription services end up in an arms race to provide content to keep subscribers "engaged". Like subscribers, there's a finite well of material that can be put on the subscription service. This ultimately ends up leading to a system of quantity over quality. Again, with video streaming we see this with the sheer number of projects being greenlit only to be canceled part way through, or only after one, season. It's already happening on game streaming services as well -- most notably Game Pass, since it's the older of the two. This push for constant content is how we end up with stinkers like Redfall. Had Redfall needed to survive solely on sales, I doubt it would have launched in the state we got it. But sales were a secondary thought -- using a big, hyped, first party title to drive engagement for Game Pass subscribers was more important than the quality of the title itself.
How did I know this was going to be your response?
Continuing to prove the point as to why software sales on Xbox is abysmal compared to PlayStation.
Because Xbox fans expect everything to show up on Game Pass or they simply won't bother.
Game Pass has fundamentally warped Xbox fans' brains into not buying games.
And then they wonder why output is dismal.
Your misreading the situation completely. Do You really think I was going to go out and buy a sequel to game I waited 7 years to play on day one? It was never going to happen. It's games like this that keep me on gamepass.
Let's compare. So let's say I am a buyer only on ps5, and I buy 3 games a year, one new $80 game, one $60, and one $40 game per year. I spend $200 year for 5 years, I spend $1000 in 5 years.
Over on xbox, I get my new games on gamepass, I pay $120 a year l for 5 years, and I buy a game for $60 and another for $20 each year. I spend $1000 over 5 years.
I also get a whole bunch of other games included that I may not have been willing to purchase.
Your negativity is misplaced.
If a third party company comes out with a AAA game on xbox that's worth my cash, I'll still buy it. I bought elden ring. problem is they are few and far between.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
To all gaming subscriptions that discourage B2P sales:
On a serious note, called it long ago. People got sucked into the PR and marketing hype and significantly overestimated the impact of gaming subscriptions.
On a serious note, called it long ago. People got sucked into the PR and marketing hype and significantly overestimated the impact of gaming subscriptions.
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THE DUCK
voted poster of the decade by bots
It doesn't indicate that at all. So MS and Sony won't sell any more consoles from this point on and continue to grow sub subscriptions?
Ms not doing well against Sony isn't a result of gamepass, it's a result of momentum from the prior 7 years, customer loyalty, and superior games. In fact, you could easily argue that without gamepass ms sales would be even worse.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
More like ~18 months ago. They last shared their GP numbers in January 2022.
Anybody remember what happened last generation and why Microsoft stopped sharing their console sales numbers? That's all you need to know about the subscription market and growth.
bluecowboys
Banned
This so much. There are only a handful of AAA third party and first party (both from Sony and Microsoft) worth the full price tag. That is why Xbox game pass is so important to me because I refuse pay 70 plus dollars for some of these games.
Only games this generation that seems to be worth the full price so far for me are the following:
Diablo 4
RE4 remake
Halo Infinite
Elden Ring
GOW:R
Forza Horizon
Star field (more than likely)
Next year, I don't see any games worth the full price tag if I was honest.
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ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
My memory is fidlly so I'm being vague on purpose here.
Unknown Soldier
Member
There's no point in subscribing to a game service if there aren't any good games for it...
This might be Microsoft's problem, but nobody ever seems to want to admit it.
This might be Microsoft's problem, but nobody ever seems to want to admit it.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
This isn't really about Sony. It is clearly about the decline/stagnation in Game Pass.
How? Because Sony recently shared its subscription growth numbers, and it is growing alright. So if the overall industry is stagnated, it is only because the other subscription service has declined.
PS Plus has been increasing both in terms of ARPU as well as total # of subscribers.
Comparing apple to oranges here slightly.
Different geographical markets and different products, that graph is useful for the higher tiers of PS plus which obviously will have a higher arpu point but it doesn't include PS Plus essential. Total ps plus users from the IR report is flat YoY, which isn't a bad thing. End of both FY22 and FY21 had 47.4m users.
Also I do think GP is flat or slightly down in the US but obviously don't have the data for that.
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Nydius
Member
This is precisely why I opted to drop back down to PS+ Essentials when my Extra sub ended a week ago. Most of what was on Extra that I wanted to play, I either had already played before I even subbed to Extra or played during the year I had Extra. I doubt anything will be added to Extra in the next year that I haven't already played. They'll certainly add GOW Ragnarok at some point but... already played it.
If I ever get the bug to play any of the games again, I can get them fairly cheap second hand rather than spending the money for a subscription service which frequently asks me to pre-paid a whole year in advance for.
Unfortunately the way this stuff works is that for a service like this, if you arent adding subscribers its basically like losing money to regular folks like us. If you are losing subscribers, even a bit, its the pre death knell. These people dont care about increasing and making a service better to a set amount of users, they only care about increasing revenue.
Thick Thighs Save Lives
Gold Member
Seems like the market for subscriptions has reached saturation which was already pointed out in the last SIE business segment. Guess it's time for MS to raise up the prices for Game Pass, but I guess they can't do that just yet as their still battling to get the ABK acquisition through.
ChoosableOne
ChoosableAll
When you first see and play the games on Gamepass and PlayStation Plus, you praise the services for a long time. Then, as you become familiar with the existing games, you start waiting for new releases and evaluate the service based on them. Gamepass has been struggling with new games lately and is far from its glorious days. Although PlayStation has recently transitioned to this model and seems more appealing, it will soon face the same problems. I believe that in 1-2 years, when monthly subscriptions start to be preferred over annual memberships, these services will face more difficult times.
ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
For Sony PS+ extras are not the cornerstone of their business model. They are just there and just good enough to be desirable by regular PS+ subscriber. They are happily sell you SM2 for $70 this fall and make a bank.
For Xbox, GamePass growth numbers are kinda existential at this point. For a lot of folks Starfield is a GamePass game, not a premium release you are obliged to buy. And that's the problem. GP will spike for a quarter and than it will roll back again because people more or less will be done with Starfield. That's why MS is not sharing numbers, they're basically plateaued at 22-25 mils and it's in a constant swing from 18 to 25 in-between big releases. That's a theory from my very own ass, of course, but the numbers seems to somehow reinforce it.
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Banjo64
cumsessed
Best games of the past 18 months:
Elden Ring, Hogwarts Legacy, TotK.
You aren’t getting quality like that on subscription services day one, anywhere.
As I’ve said in the past, both services (Extra and Game Pass) are ideal supplementary services for people that are in their teens or early 20s.
KungFucius
King Snowflake
Annecdote, but I dropped my gamepass PC sub for a while. I should have done this last month because all I played was Zelda, but I did it for now and will sub again in September. It's only 2 months off but why not save the 20 bucks when I am playing these big games on other platforms? If I was smart I would have dropped for 4 months. I also subbed for PS Extra along with getting Diablo and they have many of the older Bethesda games and things that were on GP before.
Gamepass is worth having around unless there are tons of big games that are dropping month after month that are not on it. The problem with subscriptions is that there are so many of them and most of them could be turned off for a few months here and there to save a 100+ each year. But you need to have the discipline to do it and its really not saving much.
Huh? Teens or early 20s? Gamepass brought Hi Fi Rush and Atomic Heart day 1 this year and will bring Starfield and probably something else good later this year. Obviously it won't have day 1 games on the other platforms but it has a lot of decent content and I like the ability to try things easily and risk free. It is a good thing to toggle on when they have something interesting and if you look there are things to fill gaps. I just got PS + extra more + addition and it looks kinda meh because it doesn't have any day 1 stuff. I still need to buy Spider-Man and FF. I just figured Id get it for a year because I needed PS+ for diablo couch play and the extra 30 bucks or so was worth it.
BlueLyria
Member
I disagree with this take, specifically the monthly vs annual part, one of the reasons I unsubbed from Gamepass was that the few games I played on it ended up being cheaper to just buy on the long run, the price hike bundled with a lack of ANY bundle for monthly subs killed all my interest in the service. I keep my Ps Plus Deluxe subscription up and running though, if only because I can get 1 year way cheaper on it.
Tl;dr: I stopped paying gamepass because there was no 1 year plan on pc.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
As good as those games may be for some, they did not create any positive impact. A controversial opinion, and at the risk of sounding harsh, but Hi-Fi Rush was pretty much a failure in every sense.
The game hit 2 million players despite being day one on Game Pass. Even if we do the 75:25 split, an 89 MC game that took ~4-5 years to make, sold only 500,000 copies across Steam and Xbox, and only got 1.5 million players from a Game Pass subscription base of ~25 million players (6% attach rate).
I like Hi-Fi Rush, and I think it is one of the better Xbox games out there. But at the end of the day, in the context of this thread, it didn't create any positive effect: revenue, subscription growth, or console sales.
FunkMiller
Member
As ever, it’s the games that sell a service or a console. Nothing else. Don’t put high profile great games on your subscription service, don’t expect growth. Don’t sell high profile great games on your console, don’t expect growth.
Too many people in the video games industry have forgotten that very simple fact (looking at you Phil) and it’s time they learned it again. So many of the fuckers have tried to coast. Glad to see it’s starting to backfire.
Too many people in the video games industry have forgotten that very simple fact (looking at you Phil) and it’s time they learned it again. So many of the fuckers have tried to coast. Glad to see it’s starting to backfire.
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