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[Meier]

Doesn't have the Joker. The character is iconic and is a huge draw on his own.
Doesn't have Heath Ledger's death drawing people to the box office. It was a big story at the time and the talk about his performance drew in a lot of people who may have not seen the film otherwise.

I think this film does around 800 mil. Still beating Avengers but not by much.

The fact it doesn't have Joker or Ledger is irrelevant. Why would someone who went to see TDK not see TDKR? The Dark Knight brand is HUGE and that isn't just going to drop off out of nowhere. TDKR will ABSOLUTELY do over $1b worldwide and will gross at least $500m in the US.

The Transformers movies have been shittier and shittier with each successive release but continue to make more money. The only possibility this does worse than TDK is if it's Spiderman 3 bad and there's now way Nolan could put out something that poor.

 

[The Elite]

I'm not sure if it will topple TDK or not.

On one hand, Batman brand is stronger than ever now and this is being marketed as the final film in Nolan's trilogy.

On the other hand, Joker was iconic. A lot moreso than Bane is (and will be) And believe it or not but Heath Ledger's death did give it the added publicity and seats.

Either way it's DEFINITELY taking down Avengers.

How exactly is it taking down Avengers?

They release in two completely different points in the summer. They will probably both be hugely successful blockbusters.

No one is getting taking down here.

The fact it doesn't have Joker or Ledger is irrelevant. Why would someone who went to see TDK not see TDKR? The Dark Knight brand is HUGE and that isn't just going to drop off out of nowhere. TDKR will ABSOLUTELY do over $1b worldwide and will gross at least $500m in the US.

The Transformers movies have been shittier and shittier with each successive release but continue to make more money. The only possibility this does worse than TDK is if it's Spiderman 3 bad and there's now way Nolan could put out something that poor.

I disagree but we will have to wait until the dust settles to see who is right. There's a reason for the huge bump between Batman Begins and TDK and that isn't just good word of mouth regarding the quality of BB. A lot of the media exposure around Ledger's death played a part in the success of TDK. Whether or not those audiences will return for TDKR is the big question.

Also, Bane looks like a far less compelling villain than Joker. I think you underestimate Joker's iconic impact.

 

[outunderthestars]

The fact it doesn't have Joker or Ledger is irrelevant. Why would someone who went to see TDK not see TDKR? The Dark Knight brand is HUGE and that isn't just going to drop off out of nowhere. TDKR will ABSOLUTELY do over $1b worldwide and will gross at least $500m in the US.

The Transformers movies have been shittier and shittier with each successive release but continue to make more money. The only possibility this does worse than TDK is if it's Spiderman 3 bad and there's now way Nolan could put out something that poor.

I'll got see DKR but am not nearly as excited as I was about the last batman film. Bane looks like something on par with Mr Freeze, Batgirl, and the other subpar characters from the end of the last cycle of Batman movies. He simply looks cheesy.

 

[TruHero]

I tend to think they'll do about the same. Marvel/Disney has a huge marekting push for The Avengers, which will help. While TDKR is the sequel to the amazingly successful TDK, but Bane isn't nearly as popular as The Joker.

So...maybe a slight edge to TDKR, but damn, both of these movies will do great.

 

[Daft_Cat]

The fact it doesn't have Joker or Ledger is irrelevant. Why would someone who went to see TDK not see TDKR? The Dark Knight brand is HUGE and that isn't just going to drop off out of nowhere. TDKR will ABSOLUTELY do over $1b worldwide and will gross at least $500m in the US.

The Transformers movies have been shittier and shittier with each successive release but continue to make more money. The only possibility this does worse than TDK is if it's Spiderman 3 bad and there's now way Nolan could put out something that poor.

Pretty much.

All these things people are talking about leading up to The Dark Knight: the Joker, Ledger, the marketing campaign..all that stuff that made it such a big deal...remember that when the film actually came out, most people would say it lived up to all that hype. It was a critical darling, and it became entrenched in popular culture in a way few films do.

TDKR is a sequel to that film. I never thought I'd ever resort to saying this, but "nuff said". Once Warners ratchets up the marketing campaign in the next month or so, they'll just be sealing the deal.

 

[7Th]

The fact it doesn't have Joker or Ledger is irrelevant. Why would someone who went to see TDK not see TDKR? The Dark Knight brand is HUGE and that isn't just going to drop off out of nowhere. TDKR will ABSOLUTELY do over $1b worldwide and will gross at least $500m in the US.

The Transformers movies have been shittier and shittier with each successive release but continue to make more money. The only possibility this does worse than TDK is if it's Spiderman 3 bad and there's now way Nolan could put out something that poor.

It's not just Joker or Ledger, it's the imagery the marketing created around the character. People fell in love with the myth of the Joker:

 

[The Elite]

I tend to think they'll do about the same. Marvel/Disney has a huge marekting push for The Avengers, which will help. While TDKR is the sequel to the amazingly successful TDK.

So...maybe a slight edge to TDKR, but damn, both of these movies will do great.

That's pretty much the way I see things. Both movies are going to do and be great. This is a great summer for movie goers and comic book fans.

Pretty much.

All these things people are talking about leading up to The Dark Knight: the Joker, Ledger, the marketing campaign..all that stuff that made it such a big deal...remember that when the film actually came out, most people would say it lived up to all that hype. It was a critical darling, and it became entrenched in popular culture in a way few films do.

TDKR is a sequel to that film. I never thought I'd ever resort to saying this, but "nuff said". Once Warners ratchets up the marketing campaign in the next month or so, they'll just be sealing the deal.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying here but I don't see that same hype at this point that I did for TDK.

TDK was definitely a critically acclaimed film but that doesn't necessarily mean a box office rush for the sequel. That's not to say it isn't going to do phenomenally well. I'm still saying $800 mil to $900 mil.

 

[Nesotenso]

A big reason for the success of TDK was Ledger's demise before the movie and the fact that it was his last big performance. Also the Joker is a recognizable baddie. Bane and Catwoman might not appear endear to audiences at all.

I think TDKR makes money but it won't be as profitable ( due to a higher budget) or cross billion. Pirates 4 was boosted by East Asia. TDKR won't.

 

[MrPink93485]

The Dark Knight Rises, probably. The Avengers could pull it off, but in order for that to happen, DKR would have to be fairly disappointing (certainly within the realm of possibility).

I'm thinking somewhere around 450m for TDKR, 380m for Avengers. Worldwide edge will probably go to DKR as well, especially since it gets a China release this time around presumably. TDK was one of the most pirated movies of all time in China, and Inception did big numbers there as well. Christian Bale being in the 'Flowers of War' probably helps as well.

 

[CosmicGroinPull]

I don't know who Joss Whedon is, but judging from the lines in the Avengers trailers, the script sucks hence the movie will suck. I shall still watch it for the pretty Ironman CGI tho.

 

[Cheebo]

800 mil is low? That's a very good number for a comic book flick.

I just don't feel that there is the same hype and momentum going into this film as there was with Dark Knight.

That may change after a good trailer. I just know the big buzz around TDK was Ledger which in part accounts for the huge difference in gross between TDK and Batman Begins.

But do you feel the buzz is less than Inception? Because your 800 figure is what Inception did. And this is a far bigger film than Inception.

 

[Nesotenso]

Also find it silly that people seem so invested in which makes more cash at the box office. It's like you have got a personal stake like shares at Time Warner.

 

[Discotheque]

Uh relax Doctor, I just meant it will take down it's Box office number since that's whats being discussed here.

 

[Recon]

A big reason for the success of TDK was Ledger's demise before the movie and the fact that it was his last big performance. Also the Joker is a recognizable baddie. Bane and Catwoman might not appear endear to audiences at all.

I think TDKR makes money but it won't be as profitable ( due to a higher budget) or cross billion. Pirates 4 was boosted by East Asia. TDKR won't.

That is a big discredit to the amazing film that Nolan made. Without a doubt Ledger dying gave it a bigger push, but it wasnt a "Big" reason for the success.

 

[DMczaf]

A big reason for the success of TDK was Ledger's demise before the movie and the fact that it was his last big performance. Also the Joker is a recognizable baddie. Bane and Catwoman might not appear endear to audiences at all.

I think TDKR makes money but it won't be as profitable ( due to a higher budget) or cross billion. Pirates 4 was boosted by East Asia. TDKR won't.

You think the sequel to the The Dark Knight, a movie that has so much buzz going for it that just announcing a PG-13 rating has received headlines, a movie that is going to be released in more countries than TDK (the main one being China), and on more screens, and with one of the largest marketing pushes in history won't gross over $1B, not to mention the added inflation in ticket prices?

Good luck.

 

[Spike Spiegel]

I think they'll end up being a lot closer to each other in terms of box office gross than folks seem to think. 'The Avengers' will probably have a HUGE opening weekend, possibly the biggest ever for a Marvel Studios film; and even if the following weeks show sharp declines, I think it has a shot at closing with or surpassing 'Iron Man' in domestic and worldwide gross. 'TDKR' meanwhile, I don't believe has a shot at matching its predecessor; it's been four years since the last one, the market (and resulting grosses) for superhero genre films has changed, and this time there's no Heath Ledger "tour-de-force-death-performance" media hype to drive people into a frenzy to see it in theaters. It's still going to be big, but it's not going to be setting records and it won't blow 'The Avengers' away so easily.

 

[Daft_Cat]

It's not just Joker or Ledger, it's the imagery the marketing created around the character. People fell in love with the myth of the Joker.

I think you're definitely right, but the conclusion of your argument probably says more about which film will be remembered more fondly by the collective cultural memory, rather than which will be the bigger earner.

You think the sequel to the The Dark Knight, a movie that has so much buzz going for it that just announcing a PG-13 rating has received headlines, a movie that is going to be released in more countries than TDK (the main one being China), and on more screens, and with one of the largest marketing pushes in history won't gross over $1B, not to mention the added inflation in ticket prices?

Good luck.

 

[MrPink93485]

You think the sequel to the The Dark Knight, a movie that has so much buzz going for it that just announcing a PG-13 rating has received headlines, a movie that is going to be released in more countries than TDK (the main one being China), and on more screens, and with one of the largest marketing pushes in history won't gross over $1B?

Good luck.

 

[7Th]

You think the sequel to the The Dark Knight, a movie that has so much buzz going for it that just announcing a PG-13 rating has received headlines, a movie that is going to be released in more countries than TDK (the main one being China), and on more screens, and with one of the largest marketing pushes in history won't gross over $1B, not to mention the added inflation in ticket prices?

Good luck.

[citation required]

I honestly don't see it.

 

[Slayven]

As long as Avengers does well enough for a sequel I will be happy.

 

[The Elite]

But do you feel the buzz is less than Inception? Because your 800 figure is what Inception did. And this is a far bigger film than Inception.

Right now, I actually think the buzz is a little less than Inception. I think most people saw the Inception trailer early on and needed to know what the hell it was all about. That butts in seats.

There's obviously going to be more buzz for Batman the closer we get but I don't feel it's going to be the same cultural phenomenon this time around.

I can realistically see it doing Inception numbers, maybe a bit higher because it's Batman. I just don't see it breaking 1 billion this time around.

 

[MrPink93485]

[citation required]

I honestly don't see it.

3 months from now, we'll probably be pissed that they released too much footage

 

[jett]

lol.

Assvengers gonna get wrecked.

 

[Nesotenso]

Early tracking indicates 125 million + could be at least on the cards for Avengers.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/04/ave...5m-opening-weekend-with-four-quadrant-appeal/

Because of the international release it will probably make 100 million WW before the US release.

 

[Kusagari]

lol I'm one of the biggest doubters of TDKR, and even I think it will make a billion easily. It's going to make FAR more overseas than TDK did.

 

[DMczaf]

[citation required]

I honestly don't see it.

Does it require one? Every year WB puts everything into marketing their #1 summer tentpole, unless you think this is finally the year they stop doing that?

Go look at how the final Harry Potter was marketed in the final 3 months, that should give you an idea of what they are going to do with the final Nolan Batman. They want to break their own opening weekend record, or at the very least claim that they have the Top 3 opening weekends of all time.

In 3 months, you'll feel like you've seen the entire movie by the time WB is done with this.

 

[sixteen-bit]

TDKR I hope. Batman is the coolest.

 

[The_Hitcher89]

Batman is better than all of Marvel's characters put together, and the same goes for Nolan's films when compared to Marvel's movie efforts. So TDKR, even though it has a rubbish name and will be worse for Catwoman's involvement

 

[Nesotenso]

Batman is better than all of Marvel's characters put together, and the same goes for Nolan's films when compared to Marvel's movie efforts. So TDKR, even though it has a rubbish name and will be worse for Catwoman's involvement

I disagree strongly and so would a lot of others.

 

[The Elite]

I disagree strongly and so would a lot of others.

I have to imagine it's a joke post.

This debate works so well because Nolan and Whedon have rabid, dedicated fan bases just as much as Marvel and DC.

Whedon and Nolan's styles couldn't be more different as well.

 

[gerg]

I disagree strongly and so would a lot of others.

Psh...

He's talking about a character that could defeat Galactus here. He knows his stuff.

Spoiler

Y'know, with enough prep time and all.

 

[jett]

I have to imagine it's a joke post.

This debate works so well because Nolan and Whedon have rabid, dedicated fan bases just as much as Marvel and DC.

Whedon and Nolan's styles couldn't be more different as well.

The difference between Nolan and Whedon is that Nolan is talented, it's pretty simple.

 

[The_Hitcher89]

I disagree strongly and so would a lot of others.

I was exaggerating obviously, but he is the best comic book character imo. And Nolan's films are the best films based on comic book characters as well

 

[The Elite]

The difference between Nolan and Whedon is that Nolan is talented, it's pretty simple.

Obviously Whedon doesn't have a talented bone in his body. How could I be so silly. His success must be based on magic and fairy dust.

I was exaggerating obviously, but he is the best comic book character imo. And Nolan's films are the best films based on comic book characters as well

You're certainly entitled that that opinion but I don't think Nolan's Batman is the best iteration of the character I've seen on screen. He does tell a great story though and I admire the scope of his vision.

 

[Cheebo]

Obviously Whedon doesn't have a talented bone in his body. How could I be so silly. His success must be based on magic and fairy dust.

I don't think many would call dollhouse firefly and serenity a success. At least in terms of viewers and box office gross

 

[neojubei]

Who will win?

That garfield guy has a nice butt. hmm Avengers will make more than Spider-man (sorry sony) but Dark Knight Rises will probably gross more.

Buffy TVS (TV), Angel and even Dr. Horrible were successful.

 

[The Elite]

I don't think many would call dollhouse firefly and serenity a success. At least in terms of viewers and box office gross

I'm not talking box office, obviously.

He's had a very successful career thus far and that's one of the reasons Marvel allowed him to put his hands on Avengers.

 

[Askani]

OK, not a big comic book guy, but why does the Avengers have a guy with a bow and arrow? That doesn't really seem like the most bad ass weapon/skill in comparison to iron man and what not.

No, he doesn't have any super powers. He's just an exceptional archer, martial artist and swordsman. Of course I'm not sure what they will do in the movie. They may have him have some kind of power.

But he's just like Black Widow. Not born with super powers, just really really really good at what they do.

What happens when he runs out of arrows?

What happens when Batman runs out of Bat-arangs? It doesn't matter, they either don't run out or they do something else. He's still a fantastic hand to hand fighter and fencer/swordsman.

That said, the Avengers looked absurdly dumb to me.

NO! YOU LOOK ABSURDLY DUMB! Take that!

 

[Nesotenso]

The difference between Nolan and Whedon is that Nolan is talented, it's pretty simple.

You could hate a person's work or their output, but you could never gauge and call someone talent less.

 

[Recon]

Obviously Whedon doesn't have a talented bone in his body. How could I be so silly. His success must be based on magic and fairy dust.




You're certainly entitled that that opinion but I don't think Nolan's Batman is the best iteration of the character I've seen on screen. He does tell a great story though and I admire the scope of his vision.

So which was a better Batman? West? Kilmer? Keaton? Clooney? I could maybe see an argument for Keaton, but it would be wrong.

 

[Tobor]

I don't think many would call dollhouse firefly and serenity a success. At least in terms of viewers and box office gross

Michael Bay is the most talented director working!

 

[Mudkips]

TDKR is going to be the biggest grossing film in years

Nope.

possibly of all time

See above.

 

[Veelk]

As someone who has never seen a Joss Whedon product but has heard generally good things about him, I demand that gaf explain to me what the deal is with him, good or bad.

 

[TheKaeptain]

Seriously though TDKR is going to crush Avengers. Second most popular super-hero in the world vs a bunch of dudes that know really gives a shit about. Spidey will probably make more WW than The Avengers. Off of the name alone.

Geeks on the internet need to realize that normal people don't give a shit about Marvel movies a year after they are released.

Little kids want to be Batman, Spiderman, or Superman.

 

[Live Free or Die]

I dont care. I will be seeing them both. Can't wait!

 

[Cheebo]

Michael Bay is the most talented director working!

He was talking success not talent. And it's hard to argue that Michael Bay's career isn't a success.

 

[Count Dookkake]

In a better world, the answer would be TOXIC AVENGER 5.

 

[Gila]

Those are Avengers fans too, all 12 of them

 

[Lothars]

The difference between Nolan and Whedon is that Nolan is talented, it's pretty simple.

I think both are talented but Whedon has made the better properties

Obviously Whedon doesn't have a talented bone in his body. How could I be so silly. His success must be based on magic and fairy dust.




You're certainly entitled that that opinion but I don't think Nolan's Batman is the best iteration of the character I've seen on screen. He does tell a great story though and I admire the scope of his vision.

I agree I think his batman is overrated, His batman movies are good but they don't hold up on repeat showings. To me the best batman is Micheal Keaton.

I do think that batman will do better at the box office than Avengers but it might be close.

 

[artist]

I disagree strongly and so would a lot of others.

I'm pretty sure you and your group is the 1%. You better batten down the hatches.