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[TheKaeptain]

You're mistaking the general public for comic book nerds. Most people don't know about a character who crippled Batman over 20 years ago.

Kids that grew up with Batman cartoons are going to know who he is. Their parents are going to know too. He isn't fucking calender man. He's been a part of every thing Batman related since his introduction. Those cartoons matter more than comics.

The Marvel geeks are the ones underestimating him because he isn't some beloved rip-off character like Hawkeye.

 

[Cheebo]

I don't think you will ever see King Tut or Killer Croc in a Nolan Batman film.

Clayface might be doable.

Well it's too late anyway, this is the very last one.

 

[apana]

Obviously?

Batman Begins, Dark Knight, Nolan, and the prologue. Yeah it is obvious Dark Knight Rises will be better than the Avengers. Have you watched some of the scenes from the Avengers? It has a chance to be good entertainment if no one talks too much but Dark Knight Rises has the chance to be a truly great film. Of course people will feel differently depending on what you want from a film and whether or not you are a fan of the characters.

The real question,

Which movie will make more money in merchandise?

Avengers has a lot more merchandise to sell.

Merchandise? We can't talk about all the different ways a film can make money for a studio. It's much simpler to talk about which one will do better at the box office or the discussion gets out of hand. Besides toys are for kids.

Spoiler

Just joking about the kids part, don't crucify me.

 

[jett]

This is the only factor IMO that even gives Avengers a chance to outperform a lot of people's expectations. The cartoon's going to be in full swing into the new season when the movie hits, there's adverts all over the place at Disney parks, merchandise programs will be in full swing.

That said, even with all that I don't think it'll be enough to best TDKR.

I remember some people back in 2009 making the argument that since TDK is "too dark" Iron Man would outgross it.

ahuahuahauhah

Coincidentally it reminds of a similar argument with people saying that X-Men 2 would outgross Matrix Reloaded because MR was an R-rated movie.

 

[richiek]

Kids that grew up with Batman cartoons are going to know who he is. Their parents are going to know too. He isn't fucking calender man. He's been apart of every thing Batman related since his introduction. Those cartoons matter more than comics.

The Marvel geeks are the ones underestimating him because he isn't some beloved rip-off character like Hawkeye.

Thing is, Bane only appeared in one or two episodes of the Batman cartoons. He's given a fraction of screen time compared to other villains like Joker, Penguin and Catwoman. Bane never played a significant role in any of the cartoons. So even those who watched the animated series may not know who Tom Hardy is.

 

[cutmeamango]

Is this a joke post or something? You cant just add it all up. More than likely, the same exact people who would go see Thor saw Captain America and so on.

Haven't thought of that. :/

It would be awesome if a Batman movie had a pre-credit sequence with King Tut.

I'd also like to see some Clayface.

I'd prefer seeing a Superman nod, that shit would melt my pants.

Kids that grew up with Batman cartoons are going to know who he is. Their parents are going to know too. He isn't fucking calender man. He's been apart of every thing Batman related since his introduction. Those cartoons matter more than comics.

Bold is true. He needs to be part of Batman more, because take the comics off, he has been a tertiary character ever since. Even Grundy was more of a Batman villain than him in the few past animated series!
Not to say that his last big exposure was at Batman and Robin.

I'd say your list is correct though, I'd just add Penguin on top of Bane.

 

[artist]

The real question,

Which movie will make more money in merchandise?

Avengers has a lot more merchandise to sell.

Is this the new metric Whedon fanboys can come up with?

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Iron Man made more than 600 mill worldwide. I think this will do more than that. I'm saying around 750 mill.

That´s because the whole movie focused on Iron Man, and not a collection of super heroes. The movie will lose audience in comparison to Iron Man because it´s unfocused on the beloved Tony Stark character.

Besides the Hulk is a huge turnoff in any movie

Spoiler

I am joking. Not really, the Hulk is not conceived well by the audience and rightfully so. He´s such a cheap super hero.

 

[Messypandas]

The real question,

Which movie will make more money in merchandise?

Avengers has a lot more merchandise to sell.

these shirts will break a billion

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

You're mistaking the general public for comic book nerds. Most people don't know about a character who crippled Batman almost 20 years ago.

This is like saying "Most people don't know about a character like Venom who only showed up to beat up Spider-Man 20 years ago. Vulture and Kraven will make bank ya'll."

Mainstream consumers are slower to pick up new characters, but they aren't completely oblivious. Avengers: EMH is setting up Secret Invasion and Civil War arcs, and those are only from the last 5 years. The Green Lantern movie used a villain (Parallax) who was only introduced in 1994.

And as an obvious counterpoint, most people couldn't tell you what the fuck a Skrull or a Chitauri is, yet they are speculated to be the main villains for Avengers.

 

[TheKaeptain]

Haven't thought of that. :/



I'd prefer seeing a Superman nod, that shit would melt my pants.



Bold is true. He needs to be part of Batman more, because take the comics off, he has been a tertiary character ever since. Even Grundy was more of a Batman villain than him in the few past animated series!
Not to say that his last big exposure was at Batman and Robin.

I'd say your list is correct though, I'd just add Penguin on top of Bane.

He has been in more DC series in the last ten years than the Penguin has.

 

[Hex]

This will not even be close.
Not in NA and not worldwide.
Batman will single-handedly wreck the Avengers.

 

[cutmeamango]

He has been in more DC series in the last ten years than the Penguin has.

http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0000201/

http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0000208/

If these lists are correct, Penguin starred in more episodes in the past few series than Bane by a mile.

 

[TheKaeptain]

http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0000201/

http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0000208/

If these lists are correct, Penguin starred in more episodes in the past few series than Bane by a mile.

Haha I forgot about that shitty The Batman cartoon.

 

[Nesotenso]

I'm pretty sure you and your group is the 1%. You better batten down the hatches.

No I am pretty sure we are not, whether it's just comic book or general populace.

 

[The Elite]

Haha I forgot about that shitty The Batman cartoon.

It actually had a really good finally run. Dini got on board and the quality improved. Some great episodes in that final season.

 

[Vermillion]

Please, God.

May Avengers destroy TDKR.

 

[Caboose]

Both will do extremely well. Only idiots care about who will "win".

 

[Tookay]

Please, God.

May Avengers destroy TDKR.

lol you're going to be disappointed then.

This is barely worth speculating. TDKR has all the goodwill of the previous entry, which did gangbusters, plus it's the conclusion to a well-received trilogy and the international market has only expanded since the last film. Oh yeah and it pretty much has no competition in the weeks after it, giving it lots of breathing room.

It will do gangbusters.

 

[Seth C]

Batman will come out on top. Avengers will be the better movie.

I'm with you. Batman will get a ton of critical acclaim but ultimately I'll never want to watch it a second time. Avengers will be good fun. Dark Knight Rises will definitely win at the box office though.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

lol you're going to be disappointed then.

This is barely worth speculating. TDKR has all the goodwill of the previous entry, which did gangbusters, plus it's the conclusion to a well-received trilogy and the international market has only expanded since the last film. Oh yeah and it pretty much has no competition in the weeks after it, giving it lots of breathing room.

It will do gangbusters.

Pretty much this. Even if the movie is Spiderman 3 levels of bad, it will crush records just because of how good part 2 was.

 

[SpeedingUptoStop]

How is this questionable? Is the OP not aware of the box office numbers of Marvel films v. Batman films? What is going on, my brain, guuuaaaahhhhhhh

 

[The Elite]

How is this questionable? Is the OP not aware of the box office numbers of Marvel films v. Batman films? What is going on, my brain, guuuaaaahhhhhhh

Domestic totals from Boxofficemojo.com:

The Dark Knight WB $533,345,358 4,366 $158,411,483 4,366 7/18/08
2 Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375 3,876 $114,844,116 3,615 5/3/02
3 Spider-Man 2 Sony $373,585,825 4,166 $88,156,227 4,152 6/30/04
4 Spider-Man 3 Sony $336,530,303 4,324 $151,116,516 4,252 5/4/07
5 Iron Man Par. $318,412,101 4,154 $98,618,668 4,105 5/2/08
6 Iron Man 2 Par. $312,433,331 4,390 $128,122,480 4,380 5/7/10
7 The Incredibles BV $261,441,092 3,933 $70,467,623 3,933 11/5/04
8 Batman WB $251,188,924 2,201 $40,489,746 2,194 6/23/89
9 X-Men: The Last Stand Fox $234,362,462 3,714 $102,750,665 3,690 5/26/06
10 Hancock Sony $227,946,274 3,965 $62,603,879 3,965 7/2/08
11 X2: X-Men United Fox $214,949,694 3,749 $85,558,731 3,741 5/2/03
12 Batman Begins WB $205,343,774 3,858 $48,745,440 3,858 6/15/05
13 Superman Returns WB $200,081,192 4,065 $52,535,096 4,065 6/28/06
14 Batman Forever WB $184,031,112 2,893 $52,784,433 2,842 6/16/95

Two out of the top 10 super hero films are Batman. Six are Marvel properties. I think TDKR will do better than Avengers but it's worth discussion.

I'm still surprised people think that Ledger's death had nothing to do with at least some of the bump in revenue from BB to TDK. It's ridiculous and that isn't all good word of mouth about BB.

 

[Cheebo]

Two out of the top 10 super hero films are Batman. Five are Marvel properties. I think TDKR will do better than Avengers but it's worth discussion.

Only two of those are part of the Marvel franchise that Avengers is part of. Not to mention Batman '89 would be #2 right behind TDK when you factor in inflation.

 

[Nesotenso]

Two out of the top 10 super hero films are Batman. Five are Marvel properties. I think TDKR will do better than Avengers but it's worth discussion.

As a comic book fan, here's hoping some of DC's other properties gain some traction. You can't ride the Superman and Batman train forever.

 

[apana]

With Dark Knight Rises I think people have a hard time imagining how so many will go to see it. It's the same issue with Modern Warfare or Mario, people think that it can't be done again, that they can't break another record but it ends up happening anyways.

 

[The Elite]

Only two of those are part of the Marvel franchise that Avengers is part of.

Fair enough but only one of them is a Nolan Batman film if we're going to play that game. And it's a silly game.

As a comic book fan, here's hoping some of DC's other properties gain some traction. You can't ride the Superman and Batman train forever.

Agreed.

With Dark Knight Rises I think people have a hard time imagining how so many will go to see it. It's the same issue with Modern Warfare or Mario, people think that it can't be done again, that they can't break another record but it ends up happening anyways.

You may be right but I'm just not seeing it right now.

 

[Cheebo]

Fair enough but only one of them is a Nolan Batman film if we're going to play that game. And it's a silly game.

And that 1 happens to be the #1 highest grossing super hero movie of all time. That is what matters. TDKR is the sequel to the third highest grossing movie ever.

Do you really think there are millions of people out there who saw TDK who won't see TDKR? TDK I believe is also the best selling blu-ray of all time, beating stuff like Avatar. There is a HUGE audience who loved the film and won't for some reason skip the sequel.

 

[Tookay]

Two out of the top 10 super hero films are Batman. Six are Marvel properties. I think TDKR will do better than Avengers but it's worth discussion.

So what? Spiderman and the X-Men have nothing to do with this film. The vast majority of audiences don't watch movies because they are "Marvel properties" or whatever. It's completely irrelevant.

And, even if we're narrowing it down to Iron-Man's grosses, both of his films are $200 million behind TDK. And, judging by the reception of the last movie, his franchise may actually be in something of a plateau or decline; meanwhile, TDK only has momentum on its side. The goodwill of the previous film is perhaps the most overlooked aspect of these kinds of discussions... and TDK has plenty of it.

This is completely divorced from fanboyism or nerd wars, it's just being able to tell trends and using common sense.

 

[The Anti-Monitor]

TDKR is almost certainly going to "win", considering how succesful TDK was. Even though Bane is nowhere near Joker level, I'm sure most people who watched it will want to see the sequel.

It's tough for Avengers... the movies have been succesful, but nowhere near close TDK. On the other hand, the very first time we see a big superhero team on-screen may draw more viewers.

 

[apana]

Domestic totals from Boxofficemojo.com:



Two out of the top 10 super hero films are Batman. Six are Marvel properties. I think TDKR will do better than Avengers but it's worth discussion.

I'm still surprised people think that Ledger's death had nothing to do with at least some of the bump in revenue from BB to TDK. It's ridiculous and that isn't all good word of mouth about BB.

It had a huge part to do with it, but you have to remember people actually went into the theater and saw the movie. They will return for this next Batman along with new people. If WB got 800 million for Inception, there is no way that Dark Knight Rises does less than a billion.

 

[The Elite]

And that 1 happens to be the #1 highest grossing super hero movie of all time. That is what matters. TDKR is the sequel to the third highest grossing movie ever.

Do you really think there are millions of people out there who saw TDK who won't see TDKR?

I was responding to the one person who suggested that the success of Batman movies heavily outweighed the success of Marvel films in the top 10. That isn't the case at all.

Looking at the numbers in that list, sequels in general haven't made as much as the previous film. Look at the Spidey films. Let's exclude Spider-Man 3, but the superior Spidey 2 made less than the first film.

Just because everyone went to see the previous film doesn't mean they are all going to show up again.

Burton Batman #1 is in the top 10 yet Returns isn't there. Burton's first Batman film was incredibly well received but that didn't guarantee the same success for Returns.

 

[Cheebo]

It had a huge part to do with it, but you have to remember people actually went into the theater and saw the movie. They will return for this next Batman along with new people. If WB got 800 million for Inception, there is no way that Dark Knight Rises does less than a billion.

The overseas market has grown gigantic since TDK and TDK didn't even release in China. The overseas gross of TDKR will literally crush TDK's even though TDKR likely won't gross as much as TDK domestically.

 

[Ken Masters]

Avengers looks incredibly average

 

[RSTEIN]

I think it's going to be close, but Rises should easily gross more than Avengers. Maybe something like $375 mil vs $450 mil.

 

[SpeedingUptoStop]

Even if Avenger made $150 million more than their highest grossing film (which only 1 of the 4 films they've released since have come close to, not even topped), it still wouldn't be near the launch pad for TDKR (which is not just following one of the biggest box offices ever, but home releases as well). Just seems highly improbable to me based on that alone.

 

[Cheebo]

Looking at the numbers in that list, sequels in general haven't made as much as the previous film. Look at the Spidey films. Let's exclude Spider-Man 3, but the superior Spidey 2 made less than the first film.

Burton Batman #1 is in the top 10 yet Returns isn't there. Burton's first Batman film was incredibly well received.

It's made only 30 million less, which is barely anythign when these films are doing around 400 mil. If TDKR did 30 mil less than TDK that would place it at still around 500 mil.

There is no example at all of a huge drop-off for a sequel like this. There is no precent for a movie like TDKR to suddenly drop 200 mil from the last film worldwide (to Inception levels of 800 mil as you suggest) especially when the overses market is much larger than in 2008.

TDKR is far more likely to exceed TDK worldwide than fall below it even as it doesn't match TDK domestically. Purely due to growth of the overseas market TDKR likely has an additional 200 mil in the bank overseas than it did last time.

 

[Mr.Swag]

Everysingle BO thread is filled with Avebger underestimation. Why?

That movie is going to make maaad money. I'm think $350 domestic and $800 worldwide.
Same for TAS, but less domestic for spidy.

Now, TDKR, is a different story. It a depends on what you believe caused TDK to make 1 billion ww. Was it Ledgers death? Was it cus it was a good movie? Was it the marketing and hype?
Well it was all of that. Problem is, TDKR, has just 2 of these, the potential to be a good film, and some hype.
TDKR, will hit $450 domestic at most, and around $950 ww.

 

[Tookay]

Looking at the numbers in that list, sequels in general haven't made as much as the previous film. Look at the Spidey films. Let's exclude Spider-Man 3, but the superior Spidey 2 made less than the first film.

Just because everyone went to see the previous film doesn't mean they are all going to show up again.

But the series we are talking about had a sequel that FAR EXCEEDED its previous entry, which is the most relevant factual distinction you should be making.

And I'm willing to be there will be significant audience retention for a series as well-received as Nolan's Batman. Whatever people drop off the series will be picked up by the international markets or people curious to see how what the big deal is.

 

[RSTEIN]

Everysingle BO thread is filled with Avebger underestimation. Why?

Avebgers Assemble!

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Someone on Earth thinks Avengers will do better than Rises?

 

[Parallax]

Kids that grew up with Batman cartoons are going to know who he is. Their parents are going to know too. He isn't fucking calender man. He's been a part of every thing Batman related since his introduction. Those cartoons matter more than comics.

The Marvel geeks are the ones underestimating him because he isn't some beloved rip-off character like Hawkeye.

beloved? what? and how much has bane appeared in the cartoons? he isnt penguin level thats for sure.

 

[The Elite]

But the series we are talking about had a sequel that FAR EXCEEDED its previous entry, which is the most relevant factual distinction you should be making.

And I'm willing to be there will be significant audience retention for a series as well-received as Nolan's Batman. Whatever people drop off the series will be picked up by the international markets or people curious to see how what the big deal is.

That's the problem, there is no big deal this time around.

TDK had something special going for it. A perfect storm of media buzz surrounding Ledger's death plus all of the Joker marketing that had started months earlier. We haven't seen any of that for TDKR.

I'm not entirely convinced that the audience retention will be all that great for this.

Someone on Earth thinks Avengers will do better than Rises?

I don't think many people think that.

 

[apana]

It's made only 30 million less, which is barely anythign when these films are doing around 400 mil. If TDKR did 30 mil less than TDK that would place it at still around 500 mil.

There is no example at all of a huge drop-off for a sequel like this. There is no precent for a movie like TDKR to suddenly drop 200 mil from the last film worldwide (to Inception levels of 800 mil as you suggest) especially when the overses market is much larger than in 2008.

TDKR is far more likely to exceed TDK worldwide than fall below it even as it doesn't match TDK domestically. Purely due to growth of the overseas market TDKR likely has an additional 200 mil in the bank overseas than it did last time.

I don't remember saying any of that! Yeah, but mark me down as 1.3 billion for TDKR. If anything Avengers is the big wild card here.

 

[The Elite]

I don't remember saying any of that! Yeah, but mark me down as 1.3 billion for TDKR. If anything Avengers is the big wild card here.

I'll jump in at 900 mil for TDKR. I've been swayed that far. It won't break 1 billion this time around and it won't crush TDKR numbers.

Avengers will hit 750 mil.

 

[Cheebo]

That's the problem, there is no big deal this time around.

The mere fact its the sequel (and not to mention the very final sequel) to the third highest grossing movie of all time is a pretty damn big deal.

 

[TAJ]

The biggest surprise here is that there are people who think that The Avengers will gross less than Thor, lol.

 

[Tookay]

That's the problem, there is no big deal this time around.

TDK had something special going for it. A perfect storm of media buzz surrounding Ledger's death plus all of the Joker marketing that had started months earlier. We haven't seen any of that for TDKR.

I'm not entirely convinced that the audience retention will be all that great for this.

What about the "LEGEND ENDS" isn't special? And that it is riding off the good vibes from the last movie? We've barely even seen the marketing for this thing kick in yet. Starting May, and especially June, the drip-drip of marketing is going to turn into a flood of advertising. This is WB's biggest film of the year, they're going to promote the hell out of it.

Everysingle BO thread is filled with Avebger underestimation. Why?

That movie is going to make maaad money. I'm think $350 domestic and $800 worldwide.
Same for TAS, but less domestic for spidy.

Now, TDKR, is a different story. It a depends on what you believe caused TDK to make 1 billion ww. Was it Ledgers death? Was it cus it was a good movie? Was it the marketing and hype?
Well it was all of that. Problem is, TDKR, has just 2 of these, the potential to be a good film, and some hype.
TDKR, will hit $450 domestic at most, and around $950 ww.

The "Heath Ledger's death" thing is overblown. And even if that did get butts in seats to see TDK, those people were likely impressed enough to stick through with the series to see its conclusion.

And lol @ TDKR making $100 million less domestically than its predecessor. It's like we don't live in reality here anymore.

 

[Kusagari]

TDKR will hit 1billion worldwide easily.

400-450m in U.S. (so less than TDK)
600m+ overseas

Over 1 billion.

 

[Nesotenso]

I'll jump in at 900 mil for TDKR. I've been swayed that far. It won't break 1 billion this time around and it won't crush TDK numbers.

Avengers will hit 750 mil.

Pretty much the same, when all is said and done TDKR will earn a 100 to 150 million more.