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Reuters gives analyst estimations of Nintendo FY results (official release tomorrow)
- Thread starter Cygnus X-1
- Start date
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
As I've said in the other thread, all it will take is for Nintendo to have apps like Angry Birds on the tablet controller and I think sales will explode on this thing. Would be interesting to see what analysts would say at that point.
TheNatural
My Member!
Um yes. Income is profit.
anon_mastermind
Member
But...but... you can't have apps like Angry Birds without multitouch!!!
radioheadrule83
Banned
Another set of over qualified over opinionated tools who don't realise that Nintendo make all of their money BY CONTROLLING their own hardware eco system. It doesn't just have control design benefits, it is the number one reason they can take their time on their own games and fund them up the wazoo. It's as if they don't realise hardware manufacturers reap loyalties and other benefits.
Basically, another nonsensical article thanks to clueless analysts - who are - in all probability, trying to talk down the stock for broker friends to buy in this summer. Money money money!
Basically, another nonsensical article thanks to clueless analysts - who are - in all probability, trying to talk down the stock for broker friends to buy in this summer. Money money money!
Who are these people, and why is it that they're more likely to be exposed to a trailer for NSMB2 by purchasing iOS Super Mario Bros. than through any other advertising channel ever?
Yes.
TheNatural
My Member!
No different than people who buy Angry Birds merchandise that otherwise wouldn't if they were in another non-phone venue. A lot of people live or die by their smartphones and are oblivious to anything else.
Like the guy said earlier, many kids will have Angry Birds as their first gaming experience. Just having an appearance on something like a mobile platform could expose yourself to new potential customers who otherwise wouldn't consider you, even if they're aware of you. Or even just having a presence with someone like a kid who only plays on a phone.
boiled goose
good with gravy
I agree that the answer is not certain one way or another.
Let's think about it this way. Clearly people have different opinions about the effects of putting old nintendo games on third party platforms.
In one scenario with probability = p, Nintendo puts old Mario games on other platforms. The Mario IP's association with Nintendo becomes loser and the perceived quality of the Mario IP decreases. This results in loss of sales to first party games and hardware from now till the end of time of quantity X. Mario on iOS sells from now till the end of time resulting in profits of quantity Y. Nintendo experiences net losses of X-Y.
In a second scenario with probability 1-p, Nintendo does the same but the losses to their IP and hardware value are small and of quantity x. The sales from iOS Mario are the same as in the previous scenario and quantity Y. Nintendo profits Y-x.
What is the expected value of putting Mario on iOS?
Y-x(1-p)-Xp
Even in the case where this proposition is positive, there is still a finite amount of risk, (as we cannot estimate x,Y,X,p with 100% certainty) which can shift this proposition back to being unfavorable to Nintendo.
The fact that Nintendo is not putting their games on iOS MEANS that thy see this proposition as unfavorable.
Of course, this may change in the future. X and x might decrease, Y might increase, p might decrease, they become less risk averse, they are able to estimate the parameters with more precision, thereby reducing risk.
invaderzim69
Member
Right now I expect $299.
At E3 we should know more about the system and what it has to offer. A lot of questions will hopefully be answered then. Let's see what games we will be playing on the Wii U. We should know more about the online capabilities and how much better the games look on the Wii U.
TheNatural
My Member!
I don't think they even think that far. Nintendo has always seen and made something that isn't their own an outside threat. Even third party games on their own platforms they've had a long reputation as giving a cold shoulder. For them, it's probably not even an option on the table right now.
See, I mean its possible.. but part of the whole smart phone boom is just how easy and accessible it is.
I bought my first game for a phone while sitting at a bus terminal one day bored. I buy a lot of apps when I just happen to have time to kill.
I feel like a console won't have the same impulse buy or try attached to it
Dreams-Visions
Member
It has to be priced right. The article suggests they need to charge in excess of $300 in order to break even on it. I can't see Nintendo launching a $300+ console at this point. It just doesn't seem like the right play at this point.
There were more Mario games sold during this last generation, which included the explosion of Angry birds than there ever was in the NES generation. Trust me, there will be plenty of nostalgia to go around for those that are kids right now for both Mario and Angry birds.
Geez now that I think about it, there were more Mario games sold during the DS/Wii gen than any other gaming generation period....
Yeah... I think theres enough kids to go around.
frankie_baby
Member
That is exactly what i meant
boiled goose
good with gravy
While I agree that Nintendo at times is a slow and not-particularly-agile company, I think you are underestimating the how for-profit companies operate.
I think Nintendo needs to modernize A LOT when it comes to online services (they can certainly learn a lot from mobile devices).
I do not think putting their old games in iOS is a good idea at the moment.
Maybe if someday dedicated hardware devices become totally irrelevant it will be necessary. The games should still be delivered through the Nintendo Service or Nintendo app. They don't really have the capabilities to do this now and we haven't reached that point yet.
funny you said that, because to direct my fanboy rage at someone, I searched " Nanako Imazu CLSA " with google images (moderate safesearch !) and the result was .. interesting (and NSFW)
There is good potential for the stock to rise. There are 2 factors to look at though. 3DS needs to remain growing and showing signs of growth and Nintendo needs to relly have a fantastic E3. If they can nail E3 it will begin alot of optimism building.
This is something people never grasp.
frankie_baby
Member
Probably, the stock price has clearly been pushed down by the constant nintendoomed articles by the business press
That doesn't follow. We're talking about $5-15 merch vs. a $150 console and $40 game. One purchase decision is vastly more deliberative than the other, and requires a distinctly different form of advertising and marketing. One example to illustrate the difference is the fact that once licensed merchandise gets counter space, it advertises itself--one need not own a smartphone or play touch-screen games to impulse grab a colorful, distinctive plush at the register. Note that Nintendo employs this model to an extent with their Pokemon property.
These hypothetical people just keep getting stranger. You've defined them as those who "wouldn't consider" buying (for example) a 3DS for NSMB2, but somehow playing SMB on their phone will change their minds. Why would they not simply be content to continue to play on their phone, especially now that they know they can get some Nintendo titles in addition to everything else that already exists on smartphones?
bigtroyjon
Member
lol.
The stock price has been pushed down because they lost a significant amount of money last FY and every major product they have, sold well under expectations.
ColtraineGF
Member
Side note: Nintendo in arcades is still Nintendo hardware (PCBs) running Nintendo games.
Also, the only reason Philips was allowed to use Nintendo IPs on the CD-i was because of the deal they had to do the CD addon for the SNES which fell through. Contracts and whatnot. And other cases (DK Atari, for example) were before the majority of their IPs were even established, as the NES was still new/nonexistent.
---
As another point, suddenly Nintendo doesn't sell hardware anymore? You know, the other important part of their business aside from the software side.
Plus, I suppose their Virtual Console service is going to benefit greatly if its cornerstone games are put on another platform. And of course people will come flocking to Nintendo consoles when they can get Mario and Zelda for 99c on [insert phone platform here]. It's just advertising after all, clearly.
Also, the only reason Philips was allowed to use Nintendo IPs on the CD-i was because of the deal they had to do the CD addon for the SNES which fell through. Contracts and whatnot. And other cases (DK Atari, for example) were before the majority of their IPs were even established, as the NES was still new/nonexistent.
---
As another point, suddenly Nintendo doesn't sell hardware anymore? You know, the other important part of their business aside from the software side.
Plus, I suppose their Virtual Console service is going to benefit greatly if its cornerstone games are put on another platform. And of course people will come flocking to Nintendo consoles when they can get Mario and Zelda for 99c on [insert phone platform here]. It's just advertising after all, clearly.
Q
qizah
Unconfirmed Member
Considering Nintendo's IPs sell hardware, it'd be a horrible idea for Nintendo to sell titles on iOS/Android (old and new).
People buy Nintendo hardware because they can't find those games elsewhere (legally). Much like Apple, people buy Apple hardware for Apple's operating system, which you can't find elsewhere (again, legally).
If you don't see how they're similar, I don't think you have a good idea of the strategy that each company uses to find success.
People buy Nintendo hardware because they can't find those games elsewhere (legally). Much like Apple, people buy Apple hardware for Apple's operating system, which you can't find elsewhere (again, legally).
If you don't see how they're similar, I don't think you have a good idea of the strategy that each company uses to find success.
Lonewolf_92
Member
You truly are a dumb shit troll. Modern Nintendo creates software to drive the sale of its hardware. It will not release software where that is not the case. Those arcade systems are made by Nintendo and the software used to drive their sales. What Nintendo made hardware would releasing games on android or IOS devices drive? It's that simple moron.
Yeah. It is very profitable business, but that doesn't mean everyone should jump in.
frankie_baby
Member
Running a loss the year of a console launch (ok technically the 3ds came out the year before but only just) with another console launch coming up so obviously costs will be high is not entirely unsurprising, nintendo should be running a healthy profit next year (or at least a minimal loss with healthy profit the year after) so there is plenty of value in the business but the constant doom articles and the crazy recurring theme that they have to put games on mobiles is not doing the share price any good
Hahahaha, I had that exact emotion when I read that. Definitely see what he did there.
Nintendo games on iOS would ruin the value of Nintendo platforms - Especially handhelds like 3DS. Exclusive content sells systems. The solution suggested is short sighted at best. What they really need to do is look at their Virtual Console strategy and readjust it.
It's not like Nintendo is in financial trouble. They had a bad season due to their overconfidence with Wii (interest plummeted) and 3DS (hardware overpriced). Chances are they'll learn from their mistakes.
I don't know if that $350 price to manufacture Wii U is accurate, but I'll assume it is. Launching at $349 wouldn't be unreasonable, but I completely expect $299.
It's not like Nintendo is in financial trouble. They had a bad season due to their overconfidence with Wii (interest plummeted) and 3DS (hardware overpriced). Chances are they'll learn from their mistakes.
I don't know if that $350 price to manufacture Wii U is accurate, but I'll assume it is. Launching at $349 wouldn't be unreasonable, but I completely expect $299.
TheNatural
My Member!
You know what? Fuck you. That's completely uncalled for and the type of bullshit I'm talking about. I have the right to my opinion just as much as anyone else asshole. I didn't call anyone else who disagreed with me ANYTHING.
Dreams-Visions
Member
OBJECTION. A NEW ARGUMENT APPROACHES!
Let's talk *just* about iOS. There are approximately 400 million iOS devices out in the wild, right? Including 30 million+ iPhone's and like 11 million+ iPads sold in the last 3 months, right?
Now. Let's make the genuinely fair assumption that many people who have bought games for their iOS devices would be damn interested in buying a Mario game. Further, while we know many iOS games are like $0.99 (therein lying your point), we also know that some can be priced higher if they deliver a better experience...so lets say that Nintendo offers one up for $15-$20 and offers that caliber of experience. Mario is a brand name that everyone knows and if they make a full-fledged Mario game lots and lots of people will buy it. I for damn sure would. It'd be the new standard for gaming on the OS, hands down. It would be sitting at the top of the paid apps chart for a long, long time.
If just 10% of that iOS audience buys in (and they would, since Mario is that kind of name and iOS really does need full-featured games...which will come sooner or later) do you really think Nintendo would make "very little money" off of the investment? I mean, that's 40 million copies sold, and all they had to do was build it and put it on the iTunes store. No shipping, no boxes, no carts, no discs, etc.
Even if only 5% of that audience bought the game at that price, 20 million copies would be sold. What was the last console game that sold 20 million copies? That wasn't bundled with a console at some point? That's rare air indeed.
Think about it. If anyone can make an experience-defining game designed to take advantage of a touch screen in ways that make a game impossible on traditional controllers and desirable to all...Nintendo is that company.
New Super Mario Bros. Wii.
The issue is less whether Nintendo could make money on smartphones - although with the market being what it is, I think it's far from a given that even a new Mario game could sell 20 million copies at that price point - but whether the money they'd make would offset the potential cost to their hardware business.
It's not like it's hard to figure out how Nintendo operates, we all know it on this forum, Nintendo speaks specifically of it over and over again. Just baffling to read official analysts stick to their narratives so much that they're unwilling to understand the dynamics of a major player in the industry. Wonder if it's the same way in other non-videogame sectors.
We'll see how things shake out, I guess.
We'll see how things shake out, I guess.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
Mario or not, I doubt many people would drop $15-$20 for an iOS game. Certainly not 20 million, or even 10 million people.
You also have to consider how many people would buy that iOS game in favor of a 3DS title. If some portion of that 20 million people you mentioned would be satisfied with the $15-$20 Mario and, as a result, wouldn't buy the $30-$40 Mario games on the 3DS, then Nintendo probably wouldn't be very happy with the result.
Yeah. It would only make sense if Nintendo has already decided to go third-party at that point.
Actually, by not fully recognizing the points and opinions of others and refusing to maintain your opinion in a a constant and logical matter, you kind of are looking like a (rather inexperienced) troll at this point.
If you stuck with a constant thread of reasoning rather than jumping from one idea to the next people would be more willing to believe that you actually have a real point and aren't just trying to bring up random points to 'rock the boat', as they say.
(Also, you might be mad, better get that checked out)
Jesus Christ Dreams, Im not against the idea that it could make them money, but you took some absolutely ridiculous liberties on this one. Total devices?, 10% buy in?, $15 price tag with no link to how much of mobile software is sold at what price?
Cmon now man. Thats just, thats just waaaaay waaaaay waaaaaay to many gracious estimates given. Find the most successful Mobile devlopers and pull their earnings sheets. Find a breakdown of how many iOS games sell at what price and what percentage of the market is held by games priced at 10$ or higher, find out whats the highest sold game (not ad supported, but paid) and lets use all that information to try and put a best case scenario.
And bundling is a benefit that nintendo has by having their own hardware and valuable IP's. In this particular discussion, you dont get to disqualify titles that exceeded 20m sold and were bundled at a time. To many assumptions there man, and not backed by enough real world data. How many 20m sold games are there on all mobiles combined that are paid games at the price point you are suggesting?