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[bigtroyjon]

well right now it's at 1.6m between america and japan. if you factor in europe to be 3.4 million, then they're halfway there. and that's without the holiday season.

Uhh, they haven't even come close to shipping 5 million units, let alone selling that many.

Shipped 1.8 million Vita's last FY and the Vita and PSP combined to ship 1.4 million last quarter.

Vita is probably sitting around 2.3-2.6 million shipped, plus whatever it's did in July. (not going to be much in July considering how low retail sales are.)

 

[PixyJunket]

PS Vita

Flawless.

 

[Cipherr]

I have a feeling that the importance of the DS benchmark will change as the 3DS starts to fall behind. My predicted scenario.

Now "It's selling better than the DS. Means it's doing great"

Same person 2 years from now "Doesn't matter that it's selling much worse than the DS. DS was an anomaly that we will never see again"

I'm pretty sure by now that the 3DS wont outsell the DS, I was however thinking that the handheld market would still see growth as the PSV would make up for that gap by selling more than the PSP did. That doesnt seem like its going to happen though, so at this point, even if the 3DS managed to match the DS, the Vita is looking like it wont come close to matching its predecessor, so the handheld market will see a gen over gen decline.

 

[frankie_baby]

Uhh, they haven't even come close to shipping 5 million units, let alone selling that many.

Shipped 1.8 million Vita's last FY and the Vita and PSP combined to ship 1.4 million last quarter.

Vita is probably sitting around 2.3-2.6 million shipped, plus whatever it's did in July. (not going to be much in July considering how low retail sales are.)

I'm actually starting to wonder (especially if vita shipments so far are at the higher end of estimates) if there could be a quarter with no shipments

 

[nickcv]

My latin is a little rusty

mine too XD i had to check what case was mortem, i just remembered it was not nominative

 

[Skiesofwonder]

360 is now just a shade over 5 million behind the Wii.

Just because Special Guy seems to think the 360 will pass the Wii when all things are said and done:

The Xbox 360 needs to sell around 295k per month MORE then the Wii for the next 17 months (through 2013), to pass the Wii's North American hardware total before the next gerneration (presumably) fully starts.

While that might seem possible with the WiiU about to hit, the Wii still has the $99 and $79 price tags up its sleeves.

 

[nickcv]

I'm actually starting to wonder (especially if vita shipments so far are at the higher end of estimates) if there could be a quarter with no shipments

wouldn't this be a bad move for sony? i mean they'd have to pay for the shelters holding those unshipped psv

 

[Satchel]

I believe it was Kaz's project. He's now the savior of Sony.

It's why i posted in the thread announcing his appointment that it was a mistake.

Sony needs an outsider running the company.

Not crazy Kens slightly less crazy apprentice.

Before the Vita even launched I said it was clear Sony hadn't learned from their mistakes.

 

[Currygan]

unsurprising 3DS sales

Vita...jaysis.

Mortem.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIAdHEwiAy8

 

[schuelma]

Judging the future of a recently released product based on sales during a post launch summer drought is not a very smart thing to do.
Sony has still all the possible weapons to use (price cuts, big games, maketing, redesigns) to change the situation.
I don't know if they're gonna hit their target, but I think it's obvious that with good games, aggressive bundles and an actual marketing campaign things will get much better than right now.
People tend to overract or simply they are biased, PS3 was considered to be dead for two years after its launch, it was almost hated, and now it's a pretty successful product with a lot of great games still to come.

How many times are people going to post this incredibly flawed PS3 analogy?

Unless Monster Hunter arrives to salvage Japan again, Vita is dead. D-E-A-D.

 

[Elios83]

I'm pretty sure by now that the 3DS wont outsell the DS, I was however thinking that the handheld market would still see growth as the PSV would make up for that gap by selling more than the PSP did. That doesnt seem like its going to happen though, so at this point, even if the 3DS managed to match the DS, the Vita is looking like it wont come close to matching its predecessor, so the handheld market will see a gen over gen decline.

The way the global market is going 3DS might be lucky to reach 100m over its lifetime. Every year which passes the market for dedicated handheld devices will shrink.
Vita could fall into the 20m-50m range depeding on how Sony will handle the product (read: how much they're gonna open their wallet to support it). So even in this case less than PSP's 80m.

 

[PopcornMegaphone]

wouldn't this be a bad move for sony? i mean they'd have to pay for the shelters holding those unshipped psv

They can store them in Alamogordo, New Mexico.

 

[metalslimer]

wouldn't this be a bad move for sony? i mean they'd have to pay for the shelters holding those unshipped psv

I bust out laughing at this whether it was done unintentionally or not. Appropriate considering how Sony is abandoning it basically.

Vita could fall into the 20m-50m range depeding on how Sony will handle the product (read: how much they're gonna open their wallet to support it). So even in this case less than PSP's 80m

Vita could end up selling much less than 20 million. Assuming it doesn't hit 8 million or so this year and support falls off a cliff, there will be nothing to sell it besides custom firmware whenever it gets hacked.

 

[Card Boy]

Vita means "life" in latin.

What's the Latin word for death?

PS Vita

 

[Miles X]

Probably November with WiiU.

Nothing really points to an alternate answer. PS3 revision and price cut aren't guarantees to generate interest, and Wii is finished. I suppose 3DS could sneak up on 360 in August if consumers are receptive to NSMB2 and the XL revision, but am not sold on that scenario.

3DS has beat 360 before, MS don't count handhelds in that little quote though.

 

[Cipherr]

Judging the future of a recently released product based on sales during a post launch summer drought is not a very smart thing to do.

I dont think this line works anymore. Not for me anyway. In fact, you dont have to judge the Vita on this month, you can judge it on any month of its existence outside of the launch and in any country/territory that you want and it looks bad. Writing is on the wall. The handheld has yet to look to be in 'good' shape ever. Shit, a shadow was looming over it before it even launched with the MH3G stuff for the 3DS.

 

[nickcv]

I bust out laughing at this whether it was done unintentionally or not. Appropriate considering how Sony is abandoning it basically.



Vita could end up selling much less than 20 million.

english is not my first language >.< i had to look it up in the dictionary to understand what you were talking about...

should've i used "storage facility" instead?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Just because Special Guy seems to think the 360 will pass the Wii when all things are said and done:

The Xbox 360 needs to sell around 295k per month MORE then the Wii for the next 17 months (through 2013), to pass the Wii's North American hardware total before the next gerneration (presumably) fully starts.

While that might seem possibly with the WiiU about to hit, the Wii still has the $99 and $79 price tags up its sleeves.

Not sure why that's the arbitrary cut-off.

 

[metalslimer]

english is not my first language >.< i had to look it up in the dictionary to understand what you were talking about...

should've i used "storage facility" instead?

Yeah lol, a shelter makes it sounds like Vita has been battered or abandoned....

 

[terrisus]

english is not my first language >.< i had to look it up in the dictionary to understand what you were talking about...

should've i used "storage facility" instead?

That or "warehouse" would probably be most realistic.
But, given the situation, "shelter" isn't too far off the mark either.

 

[Bruno MB]

I bust out laughing at this whether it was done unintentionally or not. Appropriate considering how Sony is abandoning it basically.



Vita could end up selling much less than 20 million. Assuming it doesn't hit 8 million or so this year and support falls off a cliff, there will be nothing to sell it besides custom firmware whenever it gets hacked.

If it weren't for the European market (I still have some hopes) I would say that around 20 million units worldwide is starting to look like a best case scenario for the PS Vita.

 

[bigtroyjon]

I'm actually starting to wonder (especially if vita shipments so far are at the higher end of estimates) if there could be a quarter with no shipments

Nah, sales aren't uniformly poor throughout an entire country, there are going to be regions in the US where Vita is actually selling decently and in those places they will need to re-up their supply. Same thing with stores, some chains will sell better than others, so as one chain sits on supply for a long time, another might need to order a little bit more now and then

Probably November with WiiU.

Nothing really points to an alternate answer. PS3 revision and price cut aren't guarantees to generate interest, and Wii is finished. I suppose 3DS could sneak up on 360 in August if consumers are receptive to NSMB2 and the XL revision, but am not sold on that scenario.

There aren't going to be enough WiiU available at launch to even come close to 360 sales in November. Wii did under 500K in it's first month for example and Nintendo has mentioned a similar level of shipments for the WiiU. January is going to be the soonest time that it could happen, and it probably will happen in January if the WiiU is any kind of success. Would give them exactly two years of being the top console.

Handhelds aren't included in the stat.

 

[Miles X]

Just because Special Guy seems to think the 360 will pass the Wii when all things are said and done:

The Xbox 360 needs to sell around 295k per month MORE then the Wii for the next 17 months (through 2013), to pass the Wii's North American hardware total before the next gerneration (presumably) fully starts.

While that might seem possible with the WiiU about to hit, the Wii still has the $99 and $79 price tags up its sleeves.

No point talking about monthly averages when 360 can wipe out 2m+ over November and December alone this year. The last Wii price cut did peanuts and the price really isn't an issue. Its library isn't vast enough to sell the console in the twilight years of this gen.

MS must be planning to cut price, even with that in mind 2.8m~ is a conservative estimate for 360 in Nov + Dec NPD, Wii is gonna be lucky to get 800k - 1m.

 

[Currygan]

Yeah lol, a shelter makes it sounds like Vita has been battered or abandoned....

welllll......

 

[Graphics Horse]

"wearhouse"

Warehouse.


But in reality it's just that room at the back where they kept the PSP Go.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Just because Special Guy seems to think the 360 will pass the Wii when all things are said and done:

The Xbox 360 needs to sell around 295k per month MORE then the Wii for the next 17 months (through 2013), to pass the Wii's North American hardware total before the next gerneration (presumably) fully starts.

While that might seem possible with the WiiU about to hit, the Wii still has the $99 and $79 price tags up its sleeves.

The 360 and Wii may hit $99 at the same time. Remember, last 360 price cut was 4 years ago.

 

[Road]

To this day I still wonder what the Sony executives were thinking when they decided to release the Vita.The whole thing is so predictable that nobody involved in that decision process deserve to keep their jobs.

Sometimes I wonder if Sony executives even know they released another portable console.

 

[frankie_baby]

wouldn't this be a bad move for sony? i mean they'd have to pay for the shelters holding those unshipped psv

Depending how generous vistas share of the 1.4 million combined shipment was its quite possible there's already more than a quarters worth of them sitting unsold

 

[Hero]

This holiday season will be very telling for the future of both handhelds.

3DS has been quite mediocre and is unlikely to surpass the DS unless there are hit titles we don't know about yet that take off like Brain Age, Nintendogs, etc did. It will still be successful but with the launch of 3DS XL and NSMB2 hopefully the holiday numbers put it in a spot where publishers can throw some heavier support onto the system next year.

If Vita doesn't put up some impressive numbers this holiday season I don't expect anyone to support it after this year.

 

[Petrae]

There aren't going to be enough WiiU available at launch to even come close to 360 sales in November. Wii did under 500K in it's first month for example and Nintendo has mentioned a similar level of shipments for the WiiU. January is going to be the soonest time that it could happen, and it probably will happen in January if the WiiU is any kind of success. Would give them exactly two years of being the top console.

Handhelds aren't included in the stat.

Great points (as usual). I snap-called November instead of considering allocation/shipment limits, which will most likely limit launch success.

 

[Ragus]

So, I guess that Gamescom 2012 is the last bell for Vita?

Fuck, I really enjoy having Vita on my desk, but how long until it starts to rot?

 

[shinra-bansho]

The 360 and Wii may hit $99 at the same time. Remember, last 360 price cut was 4 years ago.

Unless you're talking about the subscription model... I really can't see a profitable $99 360...

 

[nhlducks35]

3DS not selling as much as the DS is most likely certain, however posting numbers such as 80 million is nothing to scoff at. The 3DS simply cannot sell 150 million due the emergence of smartphones and tablets.

 

[RM8]

3DS overall reaching GBA numbers wouldn't be bad at all, I think.

 

[King Mystery]

Final Fantasy 7 remake could probably save Vita.

 

[frankie_baby]

The 360 and Wii may hit $99 at the same time. Remember, last 360 price cut was 4 years ago.

After the success of last years $99 wii at Walmart I'd expect it at that price everywhere this Xmas, I really doubt anyone that would buy a console at that price would consider a wiiu at 3 times the price and it would be easy money for Nintendo

 

[Petrae]

So, I guess that Gamescom 2012 is the last bell for Vita?

Fuck, I really enjoy having Vita on my desk, but how long until it starts to rot?

I don't know about THAT.

Perhaps Sony recognizes the poor sales and takes action. Maybe they hold out for games to finally arrive and spark consumer interest. It's possible that holiday spending could lift Vita out of the pit it's in now.

I think that there are too many possibilities and variables to consider before Sony pulls the plug and signs the Vita's death certificate. I know that some HATE this next line of thinking, but... it has only been less than six months here in the US. Jumping to extreme conclusions isn't wise.

I'll grant that there's real concern right now, but death seems a bit premature.

 

[Opiate]

Final Fantasy 7 remake could probably save Vita.

I, too, have an imaginary list of games which could save the Vita. Also if Nintendo creates a new Wii Fit-like sensation the new Wii U system could be very popular.

 

[nickcv]

This holiday season will be very telling for the future of both handhelds.

3DS has been quite mediocre and is unlikely to surpass the DS unless there are hit titles we don't know about yet that take off like Brain Age, Nintendogs, etc did. It will still be successful but with the launch of 3DS XL and NSMB2 hopefully the holiday numbers put it in a spot where publishers can throw some heavier support onto the system next year.

If Vita doesn't put up some impressive numbers this holiday season I don't expect anyone to support it after this year.

it's not like many devs are supporting it right now either... what a wasted opportunity sony!

ps: thanks for the english lesson guys =P

 

[Drago]

Final Fantasy 7 remake could probably save Vita.

Too bad it will never happen (for Vita at least)

 

[Elios83]

How many times are people going to post this incredibly flawed PS3 analogy?

Unless Monster Hunter arrives to salvage Japan again, Vita is dead. D-E-A-D.

Bacause it's absolutely not flawed, it's the same thing: it shows that success relies on the investements made by the manufacturing company.
For PS3 the big problem was to accept huge losses (investements) to price the system decently. If they they had not done that by keeping the price at 600$ for two years, PS3 would be dead.
For Vita, price in under control compared to PS3 and price cutting is easier, honestly I don't think they'll have a hard time to price it at 199$, but software support is more difficult compared to PS3 because it's an isolated platform without other similar platforms to share the development costs' burden, so they need to secure key third party games by investing in that field. They need to go to big publishers/developers and say "I want this game on my platform, I will pay most of its development costs for you, profits will be shared among us".
Nintendo invested in a price cut for the 3DS last year and they had losses because of that. But it served the purpose. What if the system was still at 249$?
So no the comparision is far from flawed. Commitment is the key in all the cases.

 

[Bruno MB]

3DS overall reaching GBA numbers wouldn't be bad at all, I think.

It would almost be a 50% decline, it looks huge.

 

[PixyJunket]

Final Fantasy 7 remake could probably save Vita.

No.

Vita needs its Monster Hunter. Which is to say that whatever (if anything) "saves" it, it will be a random surprise hit.

 

[Hero]

I, too, have an imaginary list of games which could save the Vita. Also if Nintendo creates a new Wii Fit-like sensation the new Wii U system could be very popular.

What are some of your other imaginary games that could save the Vita? Is there a Monster Hunter title on there?

 

[frankie_baby]

3DS overall reaching GBA numbers wouldn't be bad at all, I think.

Assuming it doesn't get hacked (a very big assumption) it could possibly be a bigger financial success for Nintendo than the ds was if it only sells that much

 

[RurouniZel]

Bacause it's absolutely not flawed, it's the same thing: it shows that success relies on the investements made by the manufacturing company.
For PS3 the big problem was to accept huge losses (investements) to price the system decently. If they they had not done that by keeping the price at 600$ for two years, PS3 would be dead.
For Vita, price in under control compared to PS3 and price cutting is easier, honestly I don't think they'll have a hard time to price it at 199$, but software support is more difficult compared to PS3 because it's an isolated platform without other similar platforms to share the development costs' burden, so they need to secure key third party games by investing in that field. They need to go to big publishers/developers and say "I want this game on my platform, I will pay most of its development costs for you, profits will be shared among us".
Nintendo invested in a price cut for the 3DS last year and they had losses because of that. But it served the purpose. What if the system was still at 249$?
So no the comparision is far from flawed. Commitment is the key in all the cases.

Sony is in a much worse position financially than they were a few years ago. I think if they really felt they could cut the Vita's price, they'd have done so already. ;_;

 

[schuelma]

Bacause it's absolutely not flawed, it's the same thing: it shows that success relies on the investements made by the manufacturing company.
For PS3 the big problem was to accept huge losses (investements) to price the system decently. If they they had not done that by keeping the price at 600$ for two years, PS3 would be dead.
For Vita, price in under control compared to PS3 and price cutting is easier, honestly I don't think they'll have a hard time to price it at 199$, but software support is more difficult compared to PS3 because it's an isolated platform without other similar platforms to share the development costs' burden, so they need to secure key third party games by investing in that field. They need to go to big publishers/developers and say "I want this game on my platform, I will pay most of its development costs for you, profits will be shared among us".
Nintendo invested in a price cut for the 3DS last year and they had losses because of that. But it served the purpose. What if the system was still at 249$?
So no the comparision is far from flawed. Commitment is the key in all the cases.

You seem to think Sony can get amazing third party support if they put up enough money. It has never worked that way.

PS3 benefited from having a slew of high profile announced games that people knew were coming to the platform eventually. PS3 also benefited from the 360's success which filled out the library with multi plat ports when things were slow.

I repeat- it is not as easy to get 3rd party support as you think it is, especially with a system selling this horribly.

 

[RM8]

It would almost be a 50% decline, it looks huge.

The market has changed a lot, though. And really, the DS is the best selling handheld ever, that's just not happening again.

 

[Ragus]

Final Fantasy 7 remake could probably save Vita.

Yup, and when you add a strong SE support for Vita... wait

I don't want to bring in my crystal ball, but if by any chance we are going to see any FF remakes on handhelds, I don't think it will be on Vita.

 

[frankie_baby]

I, too, have an imaginary list of games which could save the Vita. Also if Nintendo creates a new Wii Fit-like sensation the new Wii U system could be very popular.

I'm thinking wiifit u itself could be that sensation, I mean its wii fit and it doesn't monopolise the TV fuck surely that's a no brainer to sell millions