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September 2012 NPD Predictions - Closes October 8

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
[360] 250K
[3DS] 245K
[PS3] 175K
[WII] 60K
[PSV] 39K

Edit: I always check regulars for predictions. Looked at donny2112 and I'm shocked. You expect the 3DS to increase 33% on a weekly basis?
 
D

donny2112

Member
Thanks for fixing the title!

jvm said:
Edit: I always check regulars for predictions. Looked at donny2112 and I'm shocked. You expect the 3DS to increase 33% on a weekly basis?
Click to expand...

August:
78K in one week for 3DSXL
100K over 4 weeks for 3DS

Should've been some attrition in at least that last week for 3DS, so it probably wouldn't have been 25K each week. Give it 15K, and say that 3DS sold 90K total the last week of August. As Nintendo has previously pointed out with Wii Sports Resort release, a "big" expanded audience games tend to have an affect on hardware weeks after release (link, though it's worth pointing out that WSR didn't drive Wii hardware sales in August 2009, and they finally did a price cut to increase sales the next month), and not necessarily on release week. Therefore expecting some impact later in September from NSMB 2 seems reasonable. All put together, you have post-new version launch week decline from ~90K in early September and late September maybe starting to see NSMB 2 impact on sales, which may result in a decent increase to 60K / week over the course of the month.

That's the reasoning, anyways. Intentionally optimistic, but at least with some logic behind it. :)
 
S

Saty

Member
The NPD Group will report September sales on Thursday, and according to one analyst, they will not be pretty. Cowen & Company industry watcher Doug Creutz released a note to investors today predicting that total packaged game sales dipped 28 percent year-on-year.


Madden couldn't save September sales, Creutz says.


A bright spot on the sheet was retail PC games, according to Creutz, who expects sales in this market to surge 101 percent year-over-year based on the launch of World of Warcraft's four expansion, Mists pf Pandaria.

The top-performer for September, Creutz predicts, will be Madden NFL 13 at 2.16 million units, followed by Borderlands 2 at 1.57 million. For retail PC, he forecasted Mists of Pandaria to have sold 640,000 units during the month, noting that the majority of sales were downloaded digitally, a channel that NPD does not track.
Click to expand...
http://www.gamespot.com/news/analyst-industry-sales-to-decline-through-2012-6397910
 
P

Pranay

Member
What were the last year releases ?
Edit -

Software (New physical retail only, across all platforms including PC)
01. Madden NFL 12 (360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)** Electronic Arts - Over 2.3 Million
02. Gears of War 3 (360)** Microsoft (Corp) - Over 2 Million
03. Dead Island (360, PS3, PC) Deep Silver - Nearly 1 Million
04. FIFA Soccer 12 (360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, 3DS) Electronic Arts - Over 400K
05. NHL 12 (360, PS3) Electronic Arts
06. Deus Ex: Human Revolution (360, PS3, PC)** Square Enix Inc
07. Resistance 3 (PS3) Sony (Corp) - 180K
08. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (Wii, NDS, 360, 3DS, PS3, PSP, PC) LucasArts
09. Call of Duty: Black Ops (360, PS3, NDS, Wii, PC)** Activision Blizzard
10. Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine (360, PS3, PC) THQ
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Pranay_ said:
What were the last year releases ?
Click to expand...
Pachter pointed out Gears of War 3 and Dead Island as highlights last September, IIRC.

Edit: Too late, I see.

Edit 2: FWIW, Pachter initially thought over 2 million for Borderlands 2, but his latest notes suggest he believes $70 million total for that one game, or around 1.1 million at $60/unit.
 
P

Pranay

Member
jvm said:
Pachter pointed out Gears of War 3 and Dead Island as highlights last September, IIRC.

Edit: Too late, I see.

Edit 2: FWIW, Pachter initially thought over 2 million for Borderlands 2, but his latest notes suggest he believes $70 million total for that one game, or around 1.1 million at $60/unit.
Click to expand...

Hmm.

How much do you think think Fifa will do ?

It did 400k first day, how much will it end up with it
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Pranay_ said:
Hmm.

How much do you think think Fifa will do ?

It did 400k first day, how much will it end up with it
Click to expand...
Was that the 353K figure I see after a Google search? If so, then that's slippery since it's a North America figure. Also did 1.2m in UK, right, after 2 days?

Hard to say, but maybe it broke 500K. Would be an improvement, for sure.
 
Y

yon61

Member
I doubt the Vita could sell worse than in August, not with LBP, and with the five week coverage to boot.
 
T

test_account

XP-39C²
Little Big Planet Vita covers two day in the NPD tracking (released 25th September, NPD tracks to 26th September), i dont think it will show anything. If anything, the Madden bundle might have had some small effect on the Vita sale.

EDIT: I ment two days :)
 
Y

yon61

Member
Of course, forgot about the dates of the coverage with Madden just squeezing into September's slot. I'll be surprised if Vita doesn't go above 50k then.
 
S

Seda

Member
Nintendo PR said:
Nintendo 3DS Software Sales Increase Nintendo 3DS XL continued to impact the video game market in September as overall sales of Nintendo 3DS software increased by 89 percent from the same period a year ago. Standout titles include New Super Mario Bros. 2, which sold more than 295,000 units in its second month, as well as Mario Kart 7, Star Fox 64 3D, Kid Icarus: Uprising and The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D, which all saw sales increases compared to last month.

“Nintendo 3DS XL continues to galvanize our Nintendo 3DS business,” said Scott Moffitt, Nintendo of America’s executive vice president of Sales & Marketing. “Hardware sales are up, software sales are increasing exponentially and the attach rate is growing stronger every month. With a great slate of upcoming games, including Paper Mario: Sticker Star, which arrives exactly one month from today, we like our position heading into the crucial holiday selling season.”

In another milestone, Super Mario 64 DS for the Nintendo DS family of systems has now sold more than 5 million units in the United States alone. This is the third Nintendo DS game to reach the 5 million mark, joining New Super Mario Bros. (10.6 million) and Mario Kart DS (8.5 million).
...
Click to expand...

.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Super Mario 64 DS for the Nintendo DS family of systems has now sold more than 5 million units in the United States alone
Click to expand...

Jesus Christ. Oh and the 3DS seems to be doing decently

Seems not to bode well for 3DS hardware sales, by omission.
Click to expand...

Depends on what they mean up from. Probably up from last month but down YoY
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Seda said:
NSMB2 sold 240k last month, so it's sitting at 535k.
Click to expand...

Pretty mediocre numbers. Not really anything to brag about, and not a complete disaster (well I guess maybe in the sense that this was supposed to push the 3DS to 19 million this year)
 
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