iceatcs
Junior Member
I don't think it will be mobile processor. But oh you can relief, MS look like has dropped the ARM plan anyway.
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vg247-PS4: new kits shipping now, AMD A10 used as base, final version next summer
- Thread starter Globox_82
- Start date
... UE4 is just an engine. 1080p pacman done in UE4 should be doable even on a 80GFLOPs AMD E350 APU... (yes DX11 card) considering what they have done on consoles with 240GFLOPs GPUs, there is a huge gains to be made with just architecture, processing power has become more and more irrelevant so I find 3TFLOPs just as arbitrary as 6TFLOPs, it just won't be used since PCs wont get budget GPUs @ 3TFLOPs for a long time.
Sony and Microsoft are both better off releasing their consoles around 1.5-2TFLOPs in 2013 than 3TFLOPs at a much higher price in mid 2014.
I say anything above 2.5 TFLOP and that should be good enough.
The consoles would be outdated from the start and in no way suitable for a 10 year life cycle.
So the Wii U can get ports right? Believe-you-me, Sony and Microsoft will do their very best to box out the Wii U come second wave of games. The first wave will all be based around current-gen titles. As dev's begin moving into next-gen engines (Agnis, UE4, Star Wars 1313)- they will start targeting 720p and will effectively have the generation unto themselves.
Current architectures are far more efficient, it's not like a 10X increase with a 2.5TFLOP GCN GPU, it's more like 20 or 30 times. I think this is what people are getting hung up on... a ~2TFLOPs increase + DX11 features + GCN architecture is a drastic improvement from current gen, but even with all this power, game budgets will likely have to increase quite a bit to be truly given a next gen experience, as it ALWAYS has increased in the past.
Power won't be a factor with this, I've already shown it with PC hardware year over year increases, if developers continue to make games for low end gaming PCs (APUs very existence and over 50% of the PC gaming market falls in this category)
Honestly I don't think I've been sitting here defending Wii U like some fan boy, I'm excited about the system, but I'm also a PC gamer who enjoys super cutting edge graphics.
Also to the post above you, currently you can buy an 8TFLOP GPU, and by the time these consoles launch, a 10TFLOP+ GPU will be available. So yes no matter what Microsoft and Sony put in a console sized box, there will be a 300+ watt GPU sitting in someones computer the day you buy a PS4, Wii U or XB3 that will be able to push at least 3X the graphical power.
I understand what you mean but I don't think you're thinking long term.
I'm thinking until 2019, 6 years at a 40% increase of performance year over year. those consoles will be roughly in the same place these consoles are compared to modern PCs. fairly nice for Microsoft and Sony to go for IMO. (considering price and benefits)
If you get 'weak' next gen consoles, then the fancy 300W 10TFlop GPUs in PCs will be spewing out low detail crud like they are now, and the extra power will be inefficiently used.
If you get powerful next gen consoles, then your fancy PC GPUs will get a good workout and will look amazing.
It's good for console buyers to want powerful machines, and its good for PC buyers to have powerful consoles.
jeff_rigby
Banned
LG joined the HSA Foundation last month, there are rumors of Brazos in a Smart TV. Mobile/low power is I think where AMD invested their R&D. The roadmap for 20nm is 1 year while 28nm is 1.5 years. 20nm is apparently on track while 28nm is delayed. At 20nm IBM, AMD/GloFlo and TSMC will be using the same process (Bulk Silicon) and HKMG gate last. AMD has been planning since 2008 for what is coming in 2014, Full HSA, 20nm, new memory, 3D stacking and more.
My best GUESS is Jaguar low power CPUs in a APU that is a 2014 low power design with custom IP. These APUs will replace Cell in 4K TVs (another reason for 300 FPS) and current Smart TVs. One of the reasons for AMD to produce a Linux Full HSA kernel is for use in TVs and other embedded platforms. Microsoft is planning to use their APU in Cable set top boxes. To do so it needs to be a low power design.
Actually it's more an architecture problem with PCs today, again a misconception... about the only benefit will be if consoles use the extra power for higher polygon counts, because that translates over to models that the PC game will use directly. Everything else can be upscaled without worry on PCs. However rendering everything internally at 2x-4x the console counterpart has huge advantages for IQ.
So... Quick, buy AMD stock? I'm not sure I believe that all of these things will come together so seemlessly in 2014.
The real problem though is that a 2014 console from the other players means a possible 2017 console from Nintendo, it would be the equivalent of the Wii U launching back in 2008/2009. Highly disruptive to a loss leader strategy, which is why I don't think Sony or Microsoft will go this route, it basically gives Wii U at least 3 years of market leader freedom and cuts Sony and Microsoft in their second year of pulling away from Wii U thanks to hardware.
Seriously just think about if Wii U launched in 2008/2009 that is basically what the future holds for Microsoft and Sony. (and yes that is an average Nintendo console life span of 5 years, so they are not even forcing Nintendo to jump early into next gen)
launching in 2013 a year after Wii U should be far more appealing, even if their hardware is only 3x-4x as graphically powerful as Wii U.
dragonelite
Member
Not such a surprise. They double local memory(compute unit memory) for 77xx serie and up.
64kb vs 32kb that is memory that has 10 times to bandwidth compared to global memory(2~4GB) and they double or even tripled global memory cache.
Only really know the openCL terms.
No way, of course, last gen...real time ray tracing, tessellation, Ambient Occlusion ... Mmmmmmm
real time ray tracing, tessellation, Ambient Occlusion ... Mmmmmmm
in 10 years... maybe.
dragonelite
Member
real time ray tracing, tessellation, Ambient Occlusion ... Mmmmmmm
You know maybe it is possible on 720p
Those Octane Renderer have made some really cool progress on real time path tracing.
http://raytracey.blogspot.nl/
What evidence? Oh boy you're gonna be disappointed...
So basically you guys take the rumor seriously?
Because if your wishing for some dream machine
as a Sony fan I wouldn't want that rumor to be true.
jeff_rigby
Banned
Already bought 1200 shares of AMD.
The New Agni's Philosophy Demo in June 2013 seems to support a PS4 revel at 2013 E3 (June 2013). The following AMD/GloFlo roadmap has 20nm APU production starting September 2013 but test chips should be available for Developer platforms a few months before E3. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=43950314&postcount=78
Stretching a little bit but the roadmap below is several months behind as AMD/GloFlo and TSMC announced 20nm early Oct 2012 while the roadmap below looks like Dec. They might be pushing (AMD economic condition) or Game Console Mfg(s). (Microsoft and Sony) are pushing for an early release. There is no evidence that Sony is going with 20nm but there is a 40% improvement in efficiency with 20nm over 28nm and it looks like it matches the rumored roadmap and Sony for sure wanted to use "Stacking" and the efficiencies it brings plus in Sony slide shows 300FPS requires a 2014 memory and the Southbridge with that 750megabyte/sec video stream is going to have issues if @ 28nm.
Already bought 1200 shares of AMD.
The New Agni's Philosophy Demo in June 2013 seems to support a PS4 revel at 2013 E3 (June 2013). The following AMD/GloFlo roadmap has 20nm APU production starting September 2013 but test chips should be available for Developer platforms a few months before E3. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=43950314&postcount=78
More of a reason to be worried about a Nintendo console in 2017 using at least 14nm, possibly 10nm or even 8nm. It's a big gamble and I have to believe that Microsoft and Sony are looking at it in this way. I guess we will see soon enough, for the last 18months I followed Wii U news, so I think I can wait it out another 6 months till we get solid info.
Chuck Norris
Banned
You really think Nintendo is going to fast track a system on a five year cycle? Even Wii was around for seven years
This is true.
But on the other hand, 20nm at launch will enable them to have much powerful console [if they aim at high powered console].
The wii is 6 years and ubisoft actually expected the wii u to be out when rayman origins was out
JimmyRustler
Gold Member
Why are y'all thinking the next gen will be around this long? It's pretty save to say that neither MS nor Sony will sell their new consoles at a big loss (at least not nearly as big as at the start of this gen), so there won't really be a reason to stick to the same hardware that long one more time.
ComputerMKII
Banned
I sold my PS3 two years ago and I'm starting to miss the console-only games. I already have a 2006 Xbox 360 but it has no HDMI, a ridiculously small HDD and I won't pay for online, so I'm considering buying one of those ultra-slim PS3s.
Is it a good idea or should I just wait for the next generation? Is there any clue about PS4 backwards compatibility?
Is it a good idea or should I just wait for the next generation? Is there any clue about PS4 backwards compatibility?
Who knows?
JimmyRustler
Gold Member
They're not going to make the same mistake twice. Kaz saw what happened to Ken..... I don't think he's eager to loose his job.
If they last as long as this generation have then they certainly will.
Bluray is now the standard. What component is going to drive the price like the bluray drive did? Im agreeing with you as weird as I wrote that. Just putting out there you can get alot more going on without a huge release price tag.
In a normal industry that might be the right attitude to take but not the video game industry. The sheer stupidity exhibited by people that are supposed to be knowledgeable is baffling. I mean the CEO of Take 2 recently said that they have no confidence in the Wii U.
Why should they?
JimmyRustler
Gold Member
Why should they? Right now we are all experiancing how bad a lack of progress is for the industry. People loose interest in games, developers get sick of the old hardware and the market is flooded with games that mostly fail although they're pretty good.
There´s also no cell processor around anymore, MS built a powerhouse for 400$/€ with minimal subsidies back in 2005, same will be possible this time for both MS and Sony in 2013.
Even without Bluray the ps3 was still going to cost Sony more than $500 to make considering the fact that the Xbox360 was initially sold at a loss
Thats natural, we are at the end of a hardware cycle. Its not like the marketplace went stagnant when we hit the 5 year mark.
Financially it makes much more sense to provide hardware that is capable then reduce the price as manufacturing cost change.
A longer cycle is much, much more attractive to both the hardware makers and Software developers.
I don't know maybe the fact that they have been bleeding money for most of this generation. He'll I wouldn't be surprised if they post losses even after launching GTA5
What does that change about third party core games not selling on Nintendo hardware (especially not with such a strong casual focus) ? What does that change about Nintendo once again releasing a console aiming mostly at casuals? There´s zero reason to believe the WiiU would be good platform for Take 2 games, zero.
Not everything else can be 'scaled up' without engineering cost that most devs simply won't invest if it's only of use on the PC.
There's a whole world of algorithmic experimentation to be explored in terms of new lighting, material techniques, media simulation (smoke / gas etc), physical simulation etc. that will be much broader with a good chunk of GPU power at developer's disposal. If that kind of GPU power only resides on PCs, all the devs that go console-first (which is most, and which includes many of the best devs in the world) won't be so much involved in that experimentation, and the scope for simulation innovation and rendering innovation in the realtime space will be curtailed...and only appear relatively infrequently on the PC.
List the core third party games on the wii that should have sold
JimmyRustler
Gold Member
Well, it does somehow. I mean, PS4 and 720 haven't even been announced yet (and are therefore unknown to the general public) and sales are still declining. This has nothing to do with the end of the hardware cycle but with the oversaturation of the market. The 720 should have launched already last year. Just look at the hardware and software sales 09/10 was the all time high this gen and it has been going down ever since. People are getting bored.
BruiserBear
Banned
If I was a publisher I'd have little confidence in the WiiU. It's offering nothing revolutionary, and I think it's sales are going to trail off much faster than the Wii did. The Wii entered with an explosion, and kept going for years. I think the WiiU is going to enter with a pop, and slowly decline from there.
Any such platform would be easily emulate-able on a machine that is as powerful as that speculation describes.
PSM and even Vita, I imagine, could be done on the rest of the hardware without the ARM/PowerVR SoC.
I do agree, sure.
And to weigh the idea with a bit more balance, the idea of an 'always in standby' mode might support the need for low-power mode...
But are APUs not also designed to do this already (in laptops etc?)
I can see though, also, the argument that a separate CPU would be desirable for this if the CPU in the system is already 'small'. But separate memory and GPU too, in a system that's being described as having an abundance of those particular resources?
I don't know. The whole picture being painted there seems fantastically, incredibly, 'full-fat'. When I would be expecting something slightly more economically semi-skimmed
Wait... Take Two? I'm pretty sure they have done quite well this generation.
Well we will have to wait and see.
Canis lupus
Member
Long or not, the next machines will be supported throughout 2020.
Call of Duty sold what? 1 million against nearly 10 each on 360/PS3? Then there are other games highly praised by the Wii crowd like Goldeneye. Did it sell?
What about some first party core games? Xenoblade sold like shit, Zelda:SS sold about 3,5 million with a userbase of almost 100 million. That´s less than half of what OoT sold on the N64 with 3 times the userbase.
There were basically two things selling on this hardware, casual stuff, and Nintendo franchises like Mario (Kart). That´s it. And the WiiU is heading exactly in the same direction.
How does that make any sense? Zero reason? Third parties should compliment first party titles.
If Nintendo is focused on casual audience, third parties can fill the role of providing core games.
This is how you get a balanced long lasting system.
Instead some publishers are getting it in their heads that they should split the market by console.
Irregardless of the fact each console has a core following that have similar expectations and needs.