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[Seraphis Cain]

Oh man. This is quite worrying. Sounds like it's going to get pretty bad. And on Christmas Day, no less. =/ Stay safe, Southern US-GAF.

...GULF COAST STATES...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL
MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EARLY IN THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OR SQUALL-LINE MAY BE ALREADY
DEVELOPED BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY ACROSS EAST TX WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS POSSIBLY ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND APPEAR
TO MOVE A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT MIDDAY TUESDAY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY DEVELOP
AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID TUESDAY AT 21Z
JUST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2 COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IF MANY CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...THEN
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES FROM
TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE APPEARS JUST AS VIABLE. THE MAGNITUDE OF
THESE THREATS MAY DEPEND UPON THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. IF THE
FAVORED MODE ENDS UP BEING LINEAR...THEN WIND DAMAGE COULD BE THE
GREATER THREAT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM SUGGESTS A 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HATCHED AREA ARE WARRANTED. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.

Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak likely with hail, damaging gusts, and isolated tornadoes in east TX, LA, MS, AL,
west and central FL panhandle. TORCON - 5 central and south MS, 5 northeast LA, 5 central and southwest AL.

Unfortunately, some of the tornadoes from Monday night into Wednesday could be strong. I know this is not what anybody wants for Christmas!

Monday: Isolated severe t-storms possible in parts of the Deep South both during day and Monday night.
Tuesday: Severe weather outbreak may begin by Christmas morning in southeast Texas and the Gulf Coast as far east as the western Fla. Panhandle. Additional severe t-storms will fire up during day in the Deep South from east Texas to central Alabama. Tornadoes, high winds, and hail are all threats in these areas!
Tuesday night: A squall line is expected to push east into the Tennessee Valley during the night with high winds and at least a few rain-wrapped tornadoes possible.
Wednesday: Severe t-storms ahead of the surging cold front are possible from southern Virginia and the Carolinas to northern and central Florida. Damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes are possible.

 

[CrunchyFrog]

Yikes, at least it looks like NO is right on the edge of the worst of it, but it's only 30% even there. Plus it looks to be moving pretty quickly. Not quite the white Christmas I was hoping for again this year though :/ More worried about the older sis and friends in Slidell and the Northshore

 

[Seraphis Cain]

Bit of an update here. Things are actually looking worse at this point.

 

[Gustav]

Stay safe, people.

 

[legacyzero]

Stay safe down there!

Reed Timmer will protect you.

But seriously, on Christmas day? How often does that happen?

 

[perfectchaos007]

I've experienced 1 white Christmas in south east Texas, why not a tornadic Christmas?

 

[Dega]

I've experienced 1 white Christmas in south east Texas, why not a tornadic Christmas?

04 was great, then I realized I hate snow.

 

[speculawyer]

Hopefully they'll be safe.

 

[Seraphis Cain]

New updates from Dr. Forbes (TWC's severe weather expert). It's sounding pretty scary at this point.

Mon Dec 24
A low chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in southwest GA, south AL, west half FL panhandle, extreme southeast LA. TORCON - 2 FL panhandle.

Mon Night Dec 24-25
A cold front has pushed south across southeast TX and south LA which should limit the main overnight threat to these areas. Severe thunderstorms with hail, spotty damaging gusts, and
isolated tornadoes in upper coastal TX, south LA, south MS. TORCON - 4 upper coastal TX, possibly a strong tornado. Elevated thunderstorms farther north in north-central and east TX, north and central LA may have hail.

Tue Dec 25
Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in upper-coastal and east-central TX, LA (except extreme northwest), central and south MS, central and south AL, west and central FL panhandle.
TORCON - 5 east-central TX and central LA; 6 central and south MS and AL; possibly strong, long-lived tornadoes.

Tue Night Dec 25-26
Severe thunderstorms and tornado outbreak continues with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes in AL, GA, FL panhandle, extreme southeast TN, west SC. TORCON - 5 southeast AL, southwest GA, FL panhandle; 4 - north AL and GA; possibly strong tornadoes.

Wed Dec 26
Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak continues with damaging gusts and isolated tornadoes in extreme east TN, GA, central and east FL panhandle, north and west-central FL, SC, NC,
south-central and southeast VA. TORCON - 5 east and central NC and SC, possibly strong tornadoes.

Thur Dec 27
Probably no severe thunderstorms. TORCON - near zero

Also from Dr. Forbes:

I have cancelled my trip and vacation to spend Christmas with relatives in western PA. I'll be on The Weather Channel a lot over the next several days. This will probably be the worst severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak on record for a Christmas day.

 

[Big Baybee]

Sigh

 

[Dead Prince]

A little rain won't hurt anyone

 

[Dragoon En Regalia]

I haven't seen a tornado in north Texas for years. So it makes perfect sense for them to return for their Christmas special.

 

[harmonize]

Shitty weather, that in no way resembles winter, in southeast Texas? It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas!

 

[Good Job Bob]

Santa Claus is coming to town.

 

[cajunator]

Im on the western edge of that just east of Houston. Maybe it wont be so bad here in particular. Stay safe guys.
Its Tshirt/shorts weather here right this moment though. Absolutely beautiful. 71F and sunny.

 

[The Return of]

Im on the western edge of that just east of Houston. Maybe it wont be so bad here in particular. Stay safe guys.
Its Tshirt/shorts weather here right this moment though. Absolutely beautiful. 71F and sunny.

Yea! It's been feeling amazing in Houston since last Tuesday or Wed. I really hope this tornado isn't that bad cause I have to work Wed. too 12 hours at that.

 

[Wilsongt]

Marry Christmas to theeeEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeEEEEEEeeeeeeeeeeEEEE.

 

[cajunator]

Yea! It's been feeling amazing in Houston since last Tuesday or Wed. I really hope this tornado isn't that bad cause I have to work Wed. too 12 hours at that.

I have to work tonight. Seeing as its CHristmas at this point, I think gasoline sales should be down, so hopefully tonight wont be bad dispatching.

 

[MMaRsu]

Wow what's with the jokes in this topic? This shit is terrible! STAY SAFE !!!

 

[Count Dookkake]

How will they report on this and also provide updates on Santa?

 

[Darklord]

Wow what's with the jokes in this topic? This shit is terrible! STAY SAFE !!!

Yeah, it really blows me away how insensitive some people can be.

 

[Wilsongt]

How will they report on this and also provide updates on Santa?

Santa can use the vortexes to deliver presents even faster. Drop them in, use some Santa magic, boom. Several states done at once.

But on a serious note. Stay safe on Christmas, GAF. Would much rather you all have a white Christmas.

 

[Lionel Mandrake]

Well, this sucks.

 

[B.K.]

Wow what's with the jokes in this topic?

GAF hates the South and everyone there.

 

[Lionel Mandrake]

GAF hates the South and everyone there.

You'll all miss me when I'm tornadoed.

 

[bill0527]

Jesus, I'm going to be driving right through that with my kids.

Planning on a day after Christmas drive from Indiana to Florida to visit family and was going to take I-65 south through Alabama. Was thinking about bumping up my departure to Christmas night because we just got thrown under a Winter Storm Watch and expecting snow. Maybe I should take I-75 through Georgia, but that'll put me 2 hours extra driving to where I am going in FL.

 

[Rayis]

Great, not only do we have spring temperatures in here but now we also have to deal with a fuckin' tornado, I hate this shitty weather

 

[cajunator]

GAF hates the South and everyone there.

Pretty much, but thats ok.

 

[The Return of]

I have to work tonight. Seeing as its CHristmas at this point, I think gasoline sales should be down, so hopefully tonight wont be bad dispatching.

Be careful! I need to see Django tomorrow too lol. I don't want to miss that, but I guess I'll see how the weather will be first.

 

[cajunator]

Be careful! I need to see Django tomorrow too lol. I don't want to miss that, but I guess I'll see how the weather will be first.

I'll be alright.
Our office building is pretty much all glass though lol.

 

[Surface of Me]

I'm in the DFW area, doesn't look like it will be too bad around here. Everyone else should stay safe though!

 

[Lionel Mandrake]

One of the few times I can actually, genuinely get to proclaim, "Christmas is ruined!"

 

[Insane Metal]

Wow, talk about bad timing

Stay safe guys. And Merry Christmas anyway!

 

[PAULINK]

Wow, that's brutal. Going to be a stormy christmas :|

 

[Lonestar]

Saw this, and at the time, it was expected to be well south of Birmingham. Was hopeful, but now we're in the zone too. Weeee....

 

[chaosblade]

Yeah, North Alabama here. Hopefully it's not too bad.

But on a serious note. Stay safe on Christmas, GAF. Would much rather you all have a white Christmas.

White Christmas can be pretty bad here too since we aren't equipped for it. Couple years ago we got several inches of snow and it was pretty ugly. Not as bad as tornadoes though, of course.

 

[B.K.]

White Christmas can be pretty bad here too since we aren't equipped for it. Couple years ago we got several inches of snow and it was pretty ugly. Not as bad as tornadoes though, of course.

But it's funny watching the news and seeing all the stupid people who forget how to drive just because there's an inch or two of snow on the ground.

 

[Lionel Mandrake]

But it's funny watching the news and seeing all the stupid people who forget how to drive just because there's an inch or two of snow on the ground.

I can't say shit. I spun out once on an icy road. No idea how to drive in snow.

 

[Volcynika]

Living in Alabama, we keep going crazy with weather. Had a white Christmas recently and now we have tornado chances. D:

 

[B.K.]

I can't say shit. I spun out once on an icy road. No idea how to drive in snow.

It's different if it's icy, but there are a lot of people that can't drive if there's just a little snow or slush on the road.

 

[GK86]

Stay safe guys!! I hope it doesn't ruin your christmas.

 

[Data West]

Most people in Alabama expect tornadoes every other week.

Looks like it's going just by my parents' house, but it might hit my grandparents.

 

[Elfforkusu]

Bit of an update here. Things are actually looking worse at this point.

Damn, that's a pretty freaking dire forecast.

 

[Seraphis Cain]

Damn, that's a pretty freaking dire forecast.

It really is. For reference, this is what the forecast looked like the day before the April 27th, 2011 tornado outbreak (in which there were 205 tornadoes). Larger area, but otherwise basically the same. This is very likely a serious situation we're looking at.

 

[Plasmid]

Great, i come down to Jackson to visit family for Christmas and i get TORNADOES

 

[SolKane]

I heard about possible fire warnings in central Texas on the local radio today. It will be dry and very windy tomorrow :\

 

[Starsunder]

Well shit

Central SC here.

Tornadoes at Christmas, what in the fucking fuck.

 

[Plasmid]

This is on the front page of Weather.com

 

[mre]

Put something in the title about the confederate battle flag, then maybe more people will pay attention to the topic.

 

[cajunator]

It really is. For reference, this is what the forecast looked like the day before the April 27th, 2011 tornado outbreak (in which there were 205 tornadoes). Larger area, but otherwise basically the same. This is very likely a serious situation we're looking at.

Here's the storm reports from that day.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110427_rpts.html